This season has taught me that drafting BPA is the way to go

[supafly]

Lol, this is probably true. Was Solder the BPA? How about Butler, McCourtey, Brace or Chung? LMAO at the notion that BB doesn't draft for need.

I tend to agree with you 100%, and tried to break it down by positional need on the first page of the thread.

That said, I think Deus is also correct when stating that it's a combination of variables.

Like I said, I think that it is a lot easier for rookies to make more impact and get more playing time on teams that have not looked towards/built for the future. Although Belichick has indeed failed on many picks, he has also hit on enough to keep the team competitive and solidified many positions in the process; despite the obvious lack of takent in some areas.

I think we look to C, WR, S, DE/OLB next year, with some wildcard positions like CB and DT coming into the picture. To me, those would/could all be considered positions of "need."

I think if BB does draft for BPA, it is not until the mid=late rounds, when special teams play and a lessened likelihood of making the sqaud come into play.

I also think this debate could go on forever, but I will always believe that position of need is a heavy focus, which then leads to BPA out of those guys for the 3-4 positons. In other words, YES..it could be BPA, but Belichick will likely choose the BPA from the 3-4-5 positions that guys could fit, and positions where they are more likely to contribute.

Some people get "BPA" confused with overall best player available, and that is simply not the case, as also proven by your examples. It is likely position of need first, then BPA from those positions where guys will possibly help, or where we lack depth or future prospects. Just my 2 cents though.

 

[AQPE]

What BB professes to do, and what is the most sensible method of drafting at a spot that I've ever heard, is to look at need, talent and every other weighable item, and to plug them into a 'formula' in order to come up with a value. In other words, if you need a CB, you weight that in your formula, but you don't make it a requirement. If there's an AdP on the board, you grab him and look for a CB at another time.

Where I think BB has gone off the rails in recent years is in the talent evaluation aspect of defensive players once you get below the first 20 picks or so.

I agree completely with the first paragraph. Regarding the second paragraph, however, I wonder whether the issue is talent evaluation or coaching? In addition, how much of a factor is the level of experience of the other players in each position group? Let's take cornerback, for example. Several years ago when they had Mangini coaching the defensive backs and Crennel as the coordinator, the Pats were able to take someone like Randall Gay and turn him into a productive player, at least for a couple of years - but, they still had Ty Law and Rodney Harrison on the roster (as well as Wilson and Samuel, they may have had Tyrone Poole and James Sanders on the roster also). I just think it was a lot easier for them to bring in players back then when they had superior assistant coaching and at least two players that I think of as HOF caliber (or nearly so) that each brought 8+ years of experience. So, the question for me is, even if they bring in better talent at the current need positions, do they have what they need on the coaching staff and on the roster to make it work? Relative to the WR, LB, and DB positions, I have my doubts.

 

[AQPE]

You’re one of those folks who trashes the coach’s lawn after a hard fought loss by your local high school team...

I had a good laugh when I saw this - go Ampipe! :rocker:

But then I saw your posting name and had a different reaction: :scream:

 

[scout]

You’re one of those folks who trashes the coach’s lawn after a hard fought loss by your local high school team...

"Nem's Ghost", has got to be the name of the year!

 

[Deus Irae]

I agree completely with the first paragraph. Regarding the second paragraph, however, I wonder whether the issue is talent evaluation or coaching? In addition, how much of a factor is the level of experience of the other players in each position group? Let's take cornerback, for example. Several years ago when they had Mangini coaching the defensive backs and Crennel as the coordinator, the Pats were able to take someone like Randall Gay and turn him into a productive player, at least for a couple of years - but, they still had Ty Law and Rodney Harrison on the roster (as well as Wilson and Samuel, they may have had Tyrone Poole and James Sanders on the roster also). I just think it was a lot easier for them to bring in players back then when they had superior assistant coaching and at least two players that I think of as HOF caliber (or nearly so) that each brought 8+ years of experience. So, the question for me is, even if they bring in better talent at the current need positions, do they have what they need on the coaching staff and on the roster to make it work? Relative to the WR, LB, and DB positions, I have my doubts.

If it's coaching, how is Arrington improving at CB?
If it's coaching, how are Spikes and Fletcher improving (when healthy) at LB?
If it's coaching, why is Tate still looking for his first catch in Cincy?


Now, I'm not saying the coaching can't be upgraded, but I will note that BB scapegoated Pees, and we've seen the defense decline pretty steadily since Pees got the axe.

 

[AQPE]

If it's coaching, how is Arrington improving at CB?
If it's coaching, how are Spikes and Fletcher improving (when healthy) at LB?
If it's coaching, why is Tate still looking for his first catch in Cincy?


Now, I'm not saying the coaching can't be upgraded, but I will note that BB scapegoated Pees, and we've seen the defense decline pretty steadily since Pees got the axe.

Good rebuttal, counselor, all good illustrations of how this is neither "all" talent evaluation nor "all" coaching. Regarding Pees, I think the defense declined steadily in his tenure as well, though we can't ignore that during that period they lost Seymour, Bruschi, Harrison, and Samuel, and I think he has to share some of the blame for the Adalius Thomas fiasco.

I'm not saying the talent evaluation can't be upgraded, they could benefit by an upgrade in each area, but for me it is coaching that is the bigger worry card.

 

[Stilla]

Choosing the best player available isn't exclusive to the draft. Its about improving the team. If Player A in the draft, has a high value to BB, and drafting the player would an upgrade over what BB has on the field its not a reach that BB would bring the guy to the team.

Take Mallet for example, Why draft him? NE doesn't need a QB....
Mallet was drafted because he is an upgrade over Hoyer, for what ever reason.

There were many needs on the team, but BPA made BB take Mallet.

BPA does evolve out of the current roster. Who, how much do they cost, how old. BB looks at the current roster, in terms of contracts not winning seasons or stats.

Solder was picked because Light's future is in question.

Players drafted are not expected to play as starters, they are expected to compete for a starting roll. The better player will start when they are needed.

The players BB brings to the team have the potential to take the starting roll from the guy who was the starter last season in the shortest amount of time. It could be with in weeks or in a few years. The task of learning the system is a factor and it impacts the pick. BB likes FootBall smart kids.

 

[Texxx]

Bill Belichick has addressed this issue over and over again in almost exactly the same words each time.

This is very close to what he has repeatedly said: "If I draft a [pass rusher], because I need a [pass rusher], and he does not work out, then I still need a [pass rusher], and I've wasted a draft pick."

Belichick drafts the players that he has the most confidence in rather than the players that he has less confidence in even if it means not addressing a need.

He has consistently produced the winning teams doing that.

As much as I love BB, if he said that, that has got to be one of the most ridiculous philosophies I've ever heard a coach say, because you could say that about any position. What happens if BB never sees a pass rusher that he trusts in the draft than? Do you just continue to ignore the glaring need there?

He has consistently produced winning teams as of late because he has arguably the best QB of all time, NOT because of that so called philosophy.

His philosophy as far as building this defense that way has been a fail big time. This team continues to look more and more like the Colts where everything lives and dies by what Manning or in this case what Brady is capable of doing.

That philosophy of BB's you're talking about is exactly why there are still so many holes in this defense, and why most people aren't picking the Pats to even come out in the AFC, because they don't trust their defense. BB needs help at building the defense back up. That's clear at this point. They need pass rushers

 

[Crazy Patriot Guy]

As much as I love BB, if he said that, that has got to be one of the most ridiculous philosophies I've ever heard a coach say, because you could say that about any position. What happens if BB never sees a pass rusher that he trusts in the draft than? Do you just continue to ignore the glaring need there?

He has consistently produced winning teams as of late because he has arguably the best QB of all time, NOT because of that so called philosophy.

His philosophy as far as building this defense that way has been a fail big time. This team continues to look more and more like the Colts where everything lives and dies by what Manning or in this case what Brady is capable of doing.

That philosophy of BB's you're talking about is exactly why there are still so many holes in this defense, and why most people aren't picking the Pats to even come out in the AFC, because they don't trust their defense. BB needs help at building the defense back up. That's clear at this point. They need pass rushers

You realize "arguably the best QB of all time" wouldn't be on this team if not for that philosophy. We didn't need a QB in 2000. We drafted Brady because he was rated so much higher than anyone else and even though we badly needed bodies at other positions more than a 4th string QB, they couldn't pass him up anymore.

What if Belichick wasn't all that convinced in David Terrell but decided we needed a WR more than anything? Richard Seymour would have played for someone else. What if in the 2010 draft, Belichick decided he needed a pass rusher more than anything early in the 2nd round, so he took Sergio Kindle instead of Rob Gronkowski?

Belichick doesn't refuse to draft any position. He simply refuses to draft based on nothing but position.

In the 2010 draft, a lot of people would have been stoked if we had drafted Jerry Hughes in the 1st round. (and probably received high grades from the analysts for addressing our pass rushing need) 23 games, 19 tackles, 1 sack.

That's Belichick's point. We wouldn't have McCourty and we still wouldn't have that good pass rusher. If he expects a player to fail, what's the point of taking him?

 

[supafly]

Choosing the best player available isn't exclusive to the draft. Its about improving the team. If Player A in the draft, has a high value to BB, and drafting the player would an upgrade over what BB has on the field its not a reach that BB would bring the guy to the team.

Take Mallet for example, Why draft him? NE doesn't need a QB....
Mallet was drafted because he is an upgrade over Hoyer, for what ever reason.

There were many needs on the team, but BPA made BB take Mallet.

BPA does evolve out of the current roster. Who, how much do they cost, how old. BB looks at the current roster, in terms of contracts not winning seasons or stats.

Solder was picked because Light's future is in question.

Players drafted are not expected to play as starters, they are expected to compete for a starting roll. The better player will start when they are needed.

The players BB brings to the team have the potential to take the starting roll from the guy who was the starter last season in the shortest amount of time. It could be with in weeks or in a few years. The task of learning the system is a factor and it impacts the pick. BB likes FootBall smart kids.

I really like your post, but again--I am not sure if there's a totally clear cut answer here. I think that Deus said it best when he explained the combination of variables that go into the thinking.

One could certainly argue that drafting Mallett was a combination of need and BPA too. We certainly needed a 3rd QB, and I believe that Belichick even commented on the fact that (paraphrasing) "we've been lucky enough to get by with 2 QB's the past couple/few years." It could be argued in a very strong way that Mallett was simply too good to pass up, therefore helping your BPA argument, but then again--it appeared that Belichick felt that we 'needed' another QB too, so it goes both ways.

I do not truly 100% agree with your assessment on the Solder pick, as you state that the future of Matt Light was in doubt? Was it? Do we know that for a fact? Or is it possible that Belichick took a safe approach pick with Nate Solder because we 'needed' another offensive tackle? Yes, even if we kept Light (which BB may have had a very good inclination of knowing) we still only had 2 'good' tackles in Vollmer and Light. When you consider that Belichick is a coach who continues to build towards the future, I am sure that he realizes that Light is on the very back nine of his career, is probably more injury prone, and the possibility of 'need' still exists here in this scenario.

I just cannot imagine Belichick picking a pure BPA in a position that we could not use in the next year or two, and it's quite possible that he was also grooming the Nate Solder pick without expecting as much contribution from him as we saw this yr. Then again, it could be argued that maybe Belichick realized the potential for also using Solder as a part-time blocking TE, especially since he was not resigning Alge Crumpler etc. I still believe that there was some sort of 'need' (whether immediate or near-future) in both of your examples.

I will give you the benefit of the doubt in saying that I do not believe that I am totally right, and that you are totally wrong either though; and the Mallett pick certainly appears as though it may have been more BPA than any other. You also have to take into account the fact that Mallett was a CLEAR cut 1st round talent, who is very likely much more talented and game ready than some of the high-first round QB's who were actually taken. After all, he had the biggest arm, played in a pro-style offense where he slang the ball all over the field, and was rated with a clear 1st round talent. In the case of Mallett, he may have simply been too good to continually pass up. It may also have been a hunch that another AFCE team was about to select him, as I believe Miami was coming up IIRC. This example of Mallett is a bit of a wildcard, and could certainly prove to be a BPA pick, but the circumstances were also very different and a bit strange with all of the potential aspects that may have gone into the pick.

I still think the best answer is likely a combination of both, with a heavy leaning towards choosing guys that will fill positions of need/depth etc, and can contribute within this yr or next. To me, the usual draft picks would define more "need" than they would BPA, but that is also simply my opinion.

 

[goheels22002]

Belichick doesn't refuse to draft any position. He simply refuses to draft based on nothing but position.

Precisely. It seems like position is a factor in the risk/reward calculation the Patriots use, but not the determining factor.

OL, DB and LB seem to be the top needs for 2012 based on age and talent, assuming Welker is franchised. So we should look there for the early round selections.

If a quality DL, RB or receiver is there when the Pats pick - late in every round, by the way, it would be sensible to take a potential impact player.

One must assume that the Patriots are not going to draft a tight end in 2012 in the top few rounds. But if there is a player like Gronk on the board in the mid- to late rounds, he'll grab him. A 3rd TE who can block would be great but entirely a luxury.

Gronk and Cannon are two examples of selections where risk and reward were clearly major calculations. Injuries or illness cut short some portion of their pre-NFL football development. Both elite at their positions. Neither entirely necessary coming to a team with above average players in place plus other draftees in their class at their position. Both selections make the Patriots better, younger and deeper if the risk pays off. So far, it looks like these two selections did.

 

[cstjohn17]

Everyone wins!

It is a combo of BPA / Need, 2011 was unusual because free agency occurred after the draft. This placed a higher emphasis on need. Going forward free agency occurs well before the draft so the good teams try to have the majority of positions filled before the draft. Even if there is not a probowl player at every position. When the draft rolls around they can add layers of depth and competition across all positions.

 

[Keyser Söze]

Hasn't Belichick gone on record as stating roster composition is not about collecting talent but building a team?

He's certainly done a good job at not collecting talent...on defense.

 

[PatsFanStnfrd]

He's certainly done a good job at not collecting talent...on defense.

There you go being you best cynical self. Helps that you focus on a hard truth.

 

[AzPatsFan]

As much as I love BB, if he said that, that has got to be one of the most ridiculous philosophies I've ever heard a coach say, because you could say that about any position. What happens if BB never sees a pass rusher that he trusts in the draft than? Do you just continue to ignore the glaring need there?

He has consistently produced winning teams as of late because he has arguably the best QB of all time, NOT because of that so called philosophy.

His philosophy as far as building this defense that way has been a fail big time. This team continues to look more and more like the Colts where everything lives and dies by what Manning or in this case what Brady is capable of doing.

That philosophy of BB's you're talking about is exactly why there are still so many holes in this defense, and why most people aren't picking the Pats to even come out in the AFC, because they don't trust their defense. BB needs help at building the defense back up. That's clear at this point. They need pass rushers

You could argue that case about pass rushers when they had produced only 31 sacks/season last season. Historically, BB Super Bowl clubs produced about low 40s/season in sacks. But this year they are at 38, with a game to go, and are right on the number that is needed.

Last year's problem is solved, but I'm sure he will add some one too for competition and development.

This year's deficiency is at Safety and CB depth. Over the past three years Belichick has rebuilt the Defense and a good portion of the Offense while continuing to win, and there are lots of good players in the front 7, that merely need to gel some more. He does need to add some healthy Safeties and a you never have enough healthy CBs.

With regard to the Offense, it is amazing what he has done. We can have a Pro bowl Offensive line, tackle to tackle, comprised of talented new comers and a couple of cagey veterans who both appear to have another year left in them,and with good depth too. The RBs look more solid, and the TEs are superlative, as are the WRs for the Pats scheme, although Deon is aging. He even found depth at QB. Belichick might invest in a future Pro bowl center as two good candidates are emerging from the college ranks this season.

Belichick is a magician. Other Coaches would have produced a string of 5-11 clubs while rebuilding a Super Bowl club grown old and slow. Instead he produces winning clubs with 12 win seasons, and Playoff appearances, even if the incomplete rebuilding teams didn't quite have enough, to go all the way to the Super bowl, as of yet.

This club is much more complete in all squads, where talent extends deep into the reserves, except for the glaring hole at Safety. But that can be rectified in a single offseason and draft. So far the Coaching has covered up to a degree, for the glaring hole, but we shall see. In any case this team is ready to win Big, if not this season, then for the next several.

 

[rufcut]

I have no doubt that I'm going to sound like I've been drinking the cool-aid all day, but BPA or player of need aren't the only options. A few folks have touched on it, but the crux of Belichick's drafting philosophy is what has become a cliche:

Do what's best for the team.

There are a lot of options:

Draft the best player available.

Draft the best player at a position of need.

Trade down because the best player available is at a position where he's not good enough to get on the field over the current roster, but down a few spots the best player available is at a position of need.

Trade for a future draft pick.

Trade for a current player. (Has this happened recently on draft day?)

My point is that limiting the discussion to BPA or need oversimplifies a bit. I think Belichick and most personnel people are more sophisticated than that.

 

[Fencer]

What BB professes to do, and what is the most sensible method of drafting at a spot that I've ever heard, is to look at need, talent and every other weighable item, and to plug them into a 'formula' in order to come up with a value. In other words, if you need a CB, you weight that in your formula, but you don't make it a requirement.

We have bingo, although I'm not sure whether the final ratings are ordinal or cardinal.

 

[Haley]

The one thing I have noticed about the NEP organization is they draft the talent they can work with, not necessarily the best talent available. They don't rank according to just raw physical talent. Some weight is also given to work ethic and ability to comply with coaches/play within the system. If a player on the board was the BPA but was also a PITA (pain in the ...), I would hope we would pass on that player if the problem was deemed unmanageable.

 

[AzPatsFan]

For a change of pace, I'd like to contrast the personnel situation on the Patriots given Bill Belichick work as GM and Head Coach, with the situation of the hated Jests. They generally have been turning in poorer records and drafting in a better position every year, so presumably they have many great players to show for it.

They have a GM, Tannenbaum who has espoused a philosophy of trading up to get impact players at the cost of numbers, and has been doing so for more than half a decade.

It certainly has led to selecting some premium players. D'Brickishaw, Mangold and Revis are good to great players. However, despite the move ups, there have been some very bad misses.

Can we forget the Kentucky lineman with the bad knees that they bought by moving up to #4; The all-World DE/OLB, one Mr. Golston who still has yet to get a sack or even a tackle, purchased with a #7. And of course the move up to take the next Superstar QB, from football factory USC, Mr. Sanchize with a #5.

But trading several of your picks to move up for one or two picks, and drafting only two or three players per year catches up to you. After retirements, they have only two good O-linemen and an adequate player, for five starting and three reserve positions. They have but one headcase WR, and still another headcase, too.

They have three Defensive linemen, none a Pro bowler, nor a single pass rusher, for 6 or 7 DL positions. They have one good LB Dave Harris, and an Over-the-Hill guy Bart Scott, that their current Coach brought with him to NY from the Ravens.

The secondary has Revis and a fair player in Cromartie, when he is not fathering more out-of-wedlock kids, or begging for salary advances to keep the child-support process servers at bay. Their Safety situation is even worse than ours, since there is no one of even Chung's quality there.

They may be down to one RB, when La Classier retires, Shone Green, who is not a complete back and has the proverbial Hands of Granite. No one to provide the running for their Ground and Pound.


From this pile of Chicken Feathers and Chicken Guano, Wrecks must construct a Super bowl winner, since they are built not for tomorrow, but "...To Win Now", or be fired.


With a 1, 2, and 3, draft picks, what do you do if you were Wrecks and Tanny? Don't forget that a few hundred miles North on I-95 a mad genius is adding touches to his Colossus that went 14-2 and likely 13-3 the past two seasons.
:bricks:

 

[italia44]

For a change of pace, I'd like to contrast the personnel situation on the Patriots given Bill Belichick work as GM and Head Coach, with the situation of the hated Jests. They generally have been turning in poorer records and drafting in a better position every year, so presumably they have many great players to show for it.

They have a GM, Tannenbaum who has espoused a philosophy of trading up to get impact players at the cost of numbers, and has been doing so for more than half a decade.

It certainly has led to selecting some premium players. D'Brickishaw, Mangold and Revis are good to great players. However, despite the move ups, there have been some very bad misses.

Can we forget the Kentucky lineman with the bad knees that they bought by moving up to #4; The all-World DE/OLB, one Mr. Golston who still has yet to get a sack or even a tackle, purchased with a #7. And of course the move up to take the next Superstar QB, from football factory USC, Mr. Sanchize with a #5.

But trading several of your picks to move up for one or two picks, and drafting only two or three players per year catches up to you. After retirements, they have only two good O-linemen and an adequate player, for five starting and three reserve positions. They have but one headcase WR, and still another headcase, too.

They have three Defensive linemen, none a Pro bowler, nor a single pass rusher, for 6 or 7 DL positions. They have one good LB Dave Harris, and an Over-the-Hill guy Bart Scott, that their current Coach brought with him to NY from the Ravens.

The secondary has Revis and a fair player in Cromartie, when he is not fathering more out-of-wedlock kids, or begging for salary advances to keep the child-support process servers at bay. Their Safety situation is even worse than ours, since there is no one of even Chung's quality there.

They may be down to one RB, when La Classier retires, Shone Green, who is not a complete back and has the proverbial Hands of Granite. No one to provide the running for their Ground and Pound.


From this pile of Chicken Feathers and Chicken Guano, Wrecks must construct a Super bowl winner, since they are built not for tomorrow, but "...To Win Now", or be fired.


With a 1, 2, and 3, draft picks, what do you do if you were Wrecks and Tanny? Don't forget that a few hundred miles North on I-95 a mad genius is adding touches to his Colossus that went 14-2 and likely 13-3 the past two seasons.
:bricks:

Just as significant has been Fat Rex's fixation on defensive players.In a shortened FA season,he went "whole-hog"(pun intended),after Aso.This would have given his "grossly-inflated"(pun intended),ego the Nfl"s top CB tandem.

When the "corpulant one" was outbid,him and Little Tanny,had no back-up plan.After all the premier free agents were gone......they signed a slow,gun-toting,criminal FA(no,not Marvin Harrison)....Plaxico Burress......What?.....Rae Carruth wasn't available?

All of this,leaving $8m in unspent cap space!
Maybe that's good for the Federal deficit.....for a team,without it's own stadium......not so good

To add to his "mountainous"(pun intended) legacy,Mr. Foot and Mouth has drafted such offensive superstars as:Vlad "the turnstyle" DuCasse......Joe "I'm not jukin',cuz,I'm still pukin' "McKnight......and the immortal.....Jeremy "I wish I was Julian Edelman" Kerley.

Oh well,at least Fatboy can be proud of the fact that he finally dethroned that "ageing",over-the -hill franchise in New England.....O...wait a minute