This is what happens when you have too much time on your hands

[Sciz]

It's one of the peculiar things, the continued lack of respect illustrated by some toward Wes Welker. The guy is a beast and arguably in the top 5 of wide receivers in the game. They don't grow on trees.

He's top-5 right now. The odds are against him being top-5 in 3 years when he's 33 and plans to have a $10M cap hit.

 

[supafly]

He's top-5 right now. The odds are against him being top-5 in 3 years when he's 33 and plans to have a $10M cap hit.

I'm not necessarily seeing as much of a lack of respect for Welker, as I am an exploration of all the possible options.

We have seen a bit of disrespect for some of these key guys before, so I can understand those who are seeing that now.

Personally, I'm all for keeping him on a frontloaded 3 yr deal with about 3/24. I could see about 15-16 of that being guaranteed.

I think he's a very key piece moving forward, at least in 2012 and 2013. He's still the straw the stirs the drink for Brady and the offense. I don't see much reason to think they can't get a deal done here, and that Wes won't continue to be a very important part of this team; at least through 2012 and 2013.

I think they are prepared to franchise him and pay the 9 1/2 million this yr if worst comes to worst, although a longer term deal would be more than ideal for us to have a lessened cap hit this yr and make a splash in FA. Either way, I don't see him leaving this yr.

 

[ausbacker]

He's top-5 right now. The odds are against him being top-5 in 3 years when he's 33 and plans to have a $10M cap hit.

It's rather difficult to take your opinion on Wes Welker for anything worthwhile given your participation in this thread, in particular this; TRADE Wes Welker!

Welker hasn't shown any signs of slowing up and has been playing/performing beyond his contracts. He deserves to be paid in lieu of that performance.

 

[Sciz]

It's rather difficult to take your opinion on Wes Welker for anything worthwhile given your participation in this thread, in particular this; TRADE Wes Welker!

Welker hasn't shown any signs of slowing up and has been playing/performing beyond his contracts. He deserves to be paid in lieu of that performance.

If you have such a problem with that thread, then feel free to explain how I should have expected Welker to be better physically at 30 coming off major knee surgery than he was at 26 with two perfectly healthy knees. There are a lot of safe assumptions in the NFL, and one of them is that that a player won't be faster after a torn ACL than before. Welker being a freak example where that rule did not hold doesn't suddenly make me wrong on all issues relating to Welker.

Anyway, no matter what Welker has done in the very recent past, he's not going to be paid more than what the Pats think he'll be worth in the future. Giving players in their high 20s and low 30s big contracts is exactly how teams get into cap trouble. That's what happened to the Steelers and part of what happened to the Jets. These guys who are in their early 30s decline to where they're not worth their cap hit, but either would cost more to cut than to keep or have enough dead money that they're burdens financially even if released. See Calvin Pace, Bart Scott, James Harrison, Willie Colon, Aaron Smith, Chris Kemoeatu.

Now there's no guarantee that it happens to Welker sometime during his next contract, but it's something Welker is going to have to deal with as a 30 year old free agent WR. He's not going to get what a 26 year old WR coming off a 1500 yard season would get, if for no other reason than that he's a much bigger risk to not live up to that contract than a 26 year old.

And as a random fact, there are 12 WRs under contract for next year who have a contract that averages over $7M a year. Those WRs were 26, 20, 27, 25, 24, 28, 26, 21, 27, 26, 27, and 27 when they signed those contracts. If Welker were 26 or 27, he'd deserve top dollar long term. At 30, he better be happy with either top dollar or long term or there will be big problems.

And now that all that hate has come out, let me say that I'd love to have Welker back as long as it's 2-3 years for not more than $7.5M a year. I'd even be happy to give him the $9.4M franchise amount for one year. I wouldn't give him $36M over 4 years or anything like that though.

[Give or take a year in ages due to when the contract was signed relative to each player's birthday that year. Close enough.]

 

[ausbacker]

If you have such a problem with that thread, then feel free to explain how I should have expected Welker to be better physically at 30 coming off major knee surgery than he was at 26 with two perfectly healthy knees. There are a lot of safe assumptions in the NFL, and one of them is that that a player won't be faster after a torn ACL than before. Welker being a freak example where that rule did not hold doesn't suddenly make me wrong on all issues relating to Welker.

Anyway, no matter what Welker has done in the very recent past, he's not going to be paid more than what the Pats think he'll be worth in the future. Giving players in their high 20s and low 30s big contracts is exactly how teams get into cap trouble. That's what happened to the Steelers and part of what happened to the Jets. These guys who are in their early 30s decline to where they're not worth their cap hit, but either would cost more to cut than to keep or have enough dead money that they're burdens financially even if released. See Calvin Pace, Bart Scott, James Harrison, Willie Colon, Aaron Smith, Chris Kemoeatu.

Now there's no guarantee that it happens to Welker sometime during his next contract, but it's something Welker is going to have to deal with as a 30 year old free agent WR. He's not going to get what a 26 year old WR coming off a 1500 yard season would get, if for no other reason than that he's a much bigger risk to not live up to that contract than a 26 year old.

And as a random fact, there are 12 WRs under contract for next year who have a contract that averages over $7M a year. Those WRs were 26, 20, 27, 25, 24, 28, 26, 21, 27, 26, 27, and 27 when they signed those contracts. If Welker were 26 or 27, he'd deserve top dollar long term. At 30, he better be happy with either top dollar or long term or there will be big problems.

And now that all that hate has come out, let me say that I'd love to have Welker back as long as it's 2-3 years for not more than $7.5M a year. I'd even be happy to give him the $9.4M franchise amount for one year. I wouldn't give him $36M over 4 years or anything like that though.

[Give or take a year in ages due to when the contract was signed relative to each player's birthday that year. Close enough.]

That reads like the rant of someone embarrassed about his initial opinion toward Wes Welker, more specifically his ongoing performance.

FWIW, I don't believe he's going to be a bank breaker. Welker is a smart guy who appears to love it in New England. Everything revolves around Brady on the Offense being surrounded by good players. Brady is paid accordingly. As you've addressed, he'll be paid enough.

 

[jcdavey]

no unbiased person thought your haynesworth/ocho moves were going to yield anything

one was a known idiot, and one is well past their prime

there was literally no expectation unless the person was the most radical of homers



just telling the truth

 

[jcdavey]

they weren't even the magnitude of the sd bob sanders deal, and everyone knew how that would turn out as well

 

[MoLewisrocks]

He's top-5 right now. The odds are against him being top-5 in 3 years when he's 33 and plans to have a $10M cap hit.

But that's OK because in 3 years the top 5 will be hitting the cap at a lot more than $10M and since most if not all of his guaranteed money will be paid out by then they can always restructure and tell him he has to take a salary cut or risk having to bounce around the league again at increasingly less palatable deals in less comfortable situations. You don't pre-emptively toss a guy producing like Wes has CONSISTENTLY in anticipation of something that may not happen for another 3 years. You toss guys in that situation that have always had their ups and downs and you've already begun to question their effort or consistency or attitude going forward. He and Brady are guys who have consistently exhibited the capacity to buck conventional odds.

 

[MSU]

I agree--it's almost shocking, and you have to wonder if people who make these kinds of statements even really comprehend the game of football.

People need to accept a simple fact: Welker will be franchised or signed to an extension, period.

Yeah, because he's Tom Brady's BFF. They go on vacations together. Doesn't change the fact that Welker isn't a #1 receiver, has been shut down multiple times in the past few years, and has choked on the biggest stage of them all.

Wes Welker will be on this team because of politics.

 

[Patspsycho]

Yeah, because he's Tom Brady's BFF. They go on vacations together. Doesn't change the fact that Welker isn't a #1 receiver, has been shut down multiple times in the past few years, and has choked on the biggest stage of them all.

Wes Welker will be on this team because of politics.

Welker had 11 catches and 109 yards in the '07 superbowl and 7 catches and 60 yards in '12.

That's far from being a "choker." Aside from one key incompletion, he hasn't made any mistakes.

 

[MSU]

Welker had 11 catches and 109 yards in the '07 superbowl and 7 catches and 60 yards in '12.

That's far from being a "choker." Aside from one key incompletion, he hasn't made any mistakes.

Dropping a catch that would guarantee a SB victory barring a miracle of biblical proportions is considered choking. Wes Welker choked.

 

[Patspsycho]

Dropping a catch that would guarantee a SB victory barring a miracle of biblical proportions is considered choking. Wes Welker choked.

You never throw to the outside shoulder on a seam route, so it's not all on Welker who had to leap and twist at the same time, and it isn't all on Brady either because he had just re-injured his sprained shoulder.

With almost four minutes left, the game was still wide open so it's a stretch to call that drop a "choke."

 

[JackBauer]

Wes Welker will be on this team because of politics.

Yeah, that really sounds like BB's MO.

 

[Ivan]

If you have such a problem with that thread, then feel free to explain how I should have expected Welker to be better physically at 30 coming off major knee surgery than he was at 26 with two perfectly healthy knees. There are a lot of safe assumptions in the NFL, and one of them is that that a player won't be faster after a torn ACL than before. Welker being a freak example where that rule did not hold doesn't suddenly make me wrong on all issues relating to Welker.

.]

It does when you continue to apply the same logic to it that had already been proven wrong, and your claims about Welker were proven wrong. He is playing the best football of his career and if anything is getting better. He should be treated like and paid like one of the best WR's in football, he's earned it.

 

[Deus Irae]

If you have such a problem with that thread, then feel free to explain how I should have expected Welker to be better physically at 30 coming off major knee surgery than he was at 26 with two perfectly healthy knees. There are a lot of safe assumptions in the NFL, and one of them is that that a player won't be faster after a torn ACL than before. Welker being a freak example where that rule did not hold doesn't suddenly make me wrong on all issues relating to Welker.

Anyway, no matter what Welker has done in the very recent past, he's not going to be paid more than what the Pats think he'll be worth in the future. Giving players in their high 20s and low 30s big contracts is exactly how teams get into cap trouble. That's what happened to the Steelers and part of what happened to the Jets. These guys who are in their early 30s decline to where they're not worth their cap hit, but either would cost more to cut than to keep or have enough dead money that they're burdens financially even if released. See Calvin Pace, Bart Scott, James Harrison, Willie Colon, Aaron Smith, Chris Kemoeatu.

Now there's no guarantee that it happens to Welker sometime during his next contract, but it's something Welker is going to have to deal with as a 30 year old free agent WR. He's not going to get what a 26 year old WR coming off a 1500 yard season would get, if for no other reason than that he's a much bigger risk to not live up to that contract than a 26 year old.

And as a random fact, there are 12 WRs under contract for next year who have a contract that averages over $7M a year. Those WRs were 26, 20, 27, 25, 24, 28, 26, 21, 27, 26, 27, and 27 when they signed those contracts. If Welker were 26 or 27, he'd deserve top dollar long term. At 30, he better be happy with either top dollar or long term or there will be big problems.

And now that all that hate has come out, let me say that I'd love to have Welker back as long as it's 2-3 years for not more than $7.5M a year. I'd even be happy to give him the $9.4M franchise amount for one year. I wouldn't give him $36M over 4 years or anything like that though.

[Give or take a year in ages due to when the contract was signed relative to each player's birthday that year. Close enough.]

Seriously, you should just recuse yourself whenever the subject of Welker comes up.

 

[patfanken]

Seriously, you should just recuse yourself whenever the subject of Welker comes up.

This is a pretty shabby dismissal of a pretty well written and thought out post by Sciz. Just because you disagree DI, it doesn't make make his position invalid. the nice thing about "speculating" the future, is that often there can be 2 or more valid positions, and only time will tell, who was on the right side of things.

Bottom Line: Welker is a great example of a common conundrum that teams face in the league. Do you pay for what a player has done, or what he will do in the future. As one of the most productive players in the league over the past 5 years, Welker has EARNED a pay raise. But for the most part, players his age who finally make their DESERVED big pay day, RARELY play to the level of that final big contract for the full term of the deal.

If Welker DOES get his big payday and makes $8+MM over 3 years or more. It is VERY unlikely that 2 or 3 years down the road, his production on the field will equal what he is being paid and what his cap hit will be.

Some fans think that the Pats "owe" the player the right to be over paid in his final big contract, because he was under paid for a few years under his last contract. Its a valid position, but IMHO, not one that leads to long term cap success

 

[Deus Irae]

This is a pretty shabby dismissal of a pretty well written and thought out post by Sciz. Just because you disagree DI, it doesn't make make his position invalid. the nice thing about "speculating" the future, is that often there can be 2 or more valid positions, and only time will tell, who was on the right side of things.

Bottom Line: Welker is a great example of a common conundrum that teams face in the league. Do you pay for what a player has done, or what he will do in the future. As one of the most productive players in the league over the past 5 years, Welker has EARNED a pay raise. But for the most part, players his age who finally make their DESERVED big pay day, RARELY play to the level of that final big contract for the full term of the deal.

If Welker DOES get his big payday and makes $8+MM over 3 years or more. It is VERY unlikely that 2 or 3 years down the road, his production on the field will equal what he is being paid and what his cap hit will be.

Some fans think that the Pats "owe" the player the right to be over paid in his final big contract, because he was under paid for a few years under his last contract. Its a valid position, but IMHO, not one that leads to long term cap success

That poster has been on the "trade Welker" bandwagon since he got here, and he's just continuing in that vein. The "I'd love..." is completely disingenuous coming from him, since his position all along was that Welker was essentially made irrelevant by the presence of Gronk and Hernandez. Well, despite those two being there in the middle of the field and making Welker so much less effective , Welker was one catch shy of his career high and had a career high in yardage. There was little to nothing thought out about the post ("no more than $7.5 million a year" was based upon absolutely nothing, for example). The team has plenty of other players where his comments wouldn't be coming from such a ridiculous starting position, so he could recuse himself from Welker discussions and still have plenty to talk about.

Also, when the Patriots gave the 30+ year old Randy Moss a big contract, did that get them in cap trouble?

 

[MSU]

Yeah, that really sounds like BB's MO.

If you don't think Tom Brady has some serious pull in this organization you're out of touch with reality.

 

[MSU]

You never throw to the outside shoulder on a seam route, so it's not all on Welker who had to leap and twist at the same time, and it isn't all on Brady either because he had just re-injured his sprained shoulder.

With almost four minutes left, the game was still wide open so it's a stretch to call that drop a "choke."

Really, you're going to use an injury as part of your excuse? Welker flat out c-h-o-k-e-d. On the biggest stage of them all. Poorly thrown ball? Yes, but it was put in area that a professional receiver that is wanting to be paid top 5 at his position should make. The fact of the matter is, Welker isn't a top 5 receiver (he's not even the best on the team). But you can ignore that, and just keep blaming God, Tebow, whoever for the loss.

 

[JackBauer]

If you don't think Tom Brady has some serious pull in this organization you're out of touch with reality.

If you're claiming the Patriots would retain Welker simply to assuage Brady, I would submit it is you who is out to lunch.

Of course, there's also the matter of him putting up 1,500 yards despite there being no competent outside receivers on the team. I'm sure that would factor into it just a smidge.