This is what happens when you have too much time on your hands

[Wilfork#75]

My solution for the Wes Welker issue is simple, pay the man his money. He deserves it, he has earned it and he will live up to it. There hasn't been a more productive WR in the NFL over the last five years. In his 5 years here, he has lead the league in receptions 3 times, finished 2nd once and finished tied for 6th in 2010 after coming off a serious knee injury. If he was 6'4" and producing how he is now, he would be getting a $100mil contract. Wes Welker is the 2nd most important offensive player on the Patriots behind Tom Brady. He is more important than Gronk, he is more important than Hernandez, and he is definitely more important than whoever you want to line up in the backfield. Pay the man and keep him here because we can't afford to lose him. I don't think we will be unreasonable about his demands because I think he loves New England and knows he isn't going to get Larry Fitzgerald type money anywhere.

My concern is a deal that long will affect The Re-up of Gronk and Hernandez.
If they can get out of the Welker deal with only 3 years that means they only have to play cap maths on one years of that deal. Get Welker for 3 years between 21-24.

Remember. Mayo deal kicks in in 2014 and Mankins also has to be paid. From memory Brady is set to earn 18 mill.

Even though the cap is going up its still a juggling act with Welker and the 2 TE's.

I don't think the cap will be an issue for Gronk and Hernandez in 2014. The cap is expected to increase greatly in 2014 due to the new TV deal and the Pats will have money coming off the books by then. Even if Gronk exceeds Vernon Davis' largest contract for a TE (maybe something like 6yr $45mil) it is still a reasonable amount. Back load it a little until after the Brady and Mankins deals expire and it won't be an issue. I really don't think any deals the Pats make this off-season, even if it is something big like Mario Williams, will have an impact on their ability to keep Gronk.

 

[SeymourTrophies]

So, everyone is okay with signing a 31 year old WR a 4 year deal at 8 mil per year? I think the tag may just stick this year. I don't have any doubt he's worth that money this year, but no freakin' way does he maintain this quickness when he's 35. If he was even as quick as he is now in 2013, I'd be happy.

 

[resdubwhite]

My solution for the Wes Welker issue is simple, pay the man his money. He deserves it, he has earned it and he will live up to it. There hasn't been a more productive WR in the NFL over the last five years. In his 5 years here, he has lead the league in receptions 3 times, finished 2nd once and finished tied for 6th in 2010 after coming off a serious knee injury. If he was 6'4" and producing how he is now, he would be getting a $100mil contract. Wes Welker is the 2nd most important offensive player on the Patriots behind Tom Brady. He is more important than Gronk, he is more important than Hernandez, and he is definitely more important than whoever you want to line up in the backfield. Pay the man and keep him here because we can't afford to lose him. I don't think we will be unreasonable about his demands because I think he loves New England and knows he isn't going to get Larry Fitzgerald type money anywhere.




I don't think the cap will be an issue for Gronk and Hernandez in 2014. The cap is expected to increase greatly in 2014 due to the new TV deal and the Pats will have money coming off the books by then. Even if Gronk exceeds Vernon Davis' largest contract for a TE (maybe something like 6yr $45mil) it is still a reasonable amount. Back load it a little until after the Brady and Mankins deals expire and it won't be an issue. I really don't think any deals the Pats make this off-season, even if it is something big like Mario Williams, will have an impact on their ability to keep Gronk.

I agree with everything you've said about Welker as a patriot since 2007. The man is a fantastic player and a solid citizen.

but 3yr 24 million is not chump change for a guy in his 30's.


Ps: On his current trajectory. Theres no way Gronk isn't getting paid 10-12 per year.

 

[ivanvamp]

So, everyone is okay with signing a 31 year old WR a 4 year deal at 8 mil per year?

Maybe not at $8 mil, but yes, so long as it is structured so that the Pats can cut him loose with very little penalty should his skills deteriorate. The guaranteed money is the key part of the deal.

2012 - $9 mil ($8 guaranteed)
2013 - $8 mil ($7 guaranteed)
2014 - $7 mil
2015 - $6 mil

4 years, $30 mil, $15 million guaranteed. But if you need to cut him after 2013, it's not too big a deal, and you'll save a good chunk of money.

A contract like that could probably work.

 

[Wilfork#75]

Maybe not at $8 mil, but yes, so long as it is structured so that the Pats can cut him loose with very little penalty should his skills deteriorate. The guaranteed money is the key part of the deal.

2012 - $9 mil ($8 guaranteed)
2013 - $8 mil ($7 guaranteed)
2014 - $7 mil
2015 - $6 mil

4 years, $30 mil, $15 million guaranteed. But if you need to cut him after 2013, it's not too big a deal, and you'll save a good chunk of money.

A contract like that could probably work.

If you are going to guarantee that why not guarantee all of the 1st two years. You can't cut him then anyway, so why not add the extra $2mil guaranteed early. Makes him happier and has no effect on the cap situation.

 

[Wilfork#75]

So, everyone is okay with signing a 31 year old WR a 4 year deal at 8 mil per year? I think the tag may just stick this year. I don't have any doubt he's worth that money this year, but no freakin' way does he maintain this quickness when he's 35. If he was even as quick as he is now in 2013, I'd be happy.

I would be happy with that. I don't think his style will lead to too bad of a decline over the next few years so I think he will be worth it. And as ivanvamp proposed, you front load most of the guaranteed money so he is an easy cut later on if he does decline.

Ps: On his current trajectory. Theres no way Gronk isn't getting paid 10-12 per year.

While this is very possible, it is a huge increase from the money TE's receive now. Vernon Davis has the largest TE contract ever at 6 yrs $42.7mil. While Gronk will likely pass that, 6 yrs $60-70mil is a lot of money, and Gronk is still only a TE. Now the increase in cap could lead to greater salary inflation and a TE boom in the NFL could increase Gronk's value, which would make these numbers reasonable.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Best thread title of the new season...

Thread itself not so much...

:deadhorse: :bricks:

 

[resdubwhite]

While this is very possible, it is a huge increase from the money TE's receive now. Vernon Davis has the largest TE contract ever at 6 yrs $42.7mil. While Gronk will likely pass that, 6 yrs $60-70mil is a lot of money, and Gronk is still only a TE. Now the increase in cap could lead to greater salary inflation and a TE boom in the NFL could increase Gronk's value, which would make these numbers reasonable.

I'm well aware of the current contracts out there.

But if Gronk has 2 more years of double digit TD's and over 1000 yards receiving then all bets are off. Its a groundbreaking contract. Its screy to think that by the beginning of his fifth year he could have close to 60 TD's.

 

[patfanken]

Ken--I agree, why not play out all of the scenarios? You are right, we have plenty of time to do so.

As far as your WR scenario--I can't imagine not having Welker around, at least for the 2012 season. It may be that they cannot reach a common ground on a long-term deal, but there's no reason why they can't have him for this upcoming year. I think the tag is likely, with the hopes of reaching a longer term agreement and reducing the high cap hit. If this goal is not reached, they will be forced to pay him 9 1/2 million dollars this yr. Either way, he probably isn't going anywhere; at least for the upcoming season. Next yr may very well be a different story, only time will tell.

Seeing as how we will likely have Welker for 2012, you have to assume that a long term deal may NOT be reached, and prepared to eat the large 9.5 million cap hit under the tag. That will limit our FA options to some degree. Like I said, I believe the hopes are that a long term deal gets done, and they eventually get a lot lesser cap hit for the season; but if not, they will be somewhat limited in their spending.

That now leaves certain players (Belichick-type players) at the position like Reggie Wayne who will have a lot less of a cost than all of these fantasy guys that many here are throwing around. Wayne will give us a lot more than we had this yr, and we'd still have the battle between Ocho and Branch as the last depth option. I believe that Branch would be the favorite going in, due to the potential lower cost of resigning him and his extensive knowledge of the system/better rapport with Brady. That said, it makes sense to also keep Ocho through training camp too.

I think if Lloyd works out at a "fair" price, then Belichick may be all for it, but I don't see BB breaking the bank for some of these big-name WR's like Vincent Jackson, Mike Wallace (still too raw with a lot of question marks for such high money), and even Marques Colston.

With over 600 free agents, I am sure that Belichick will utilize some of the mid-tier WR's as possible targets, but cost will still be a big part of the potential signings. I also believe that a WR is taken in this yr's draft, so that will also come into play come August when decisions need to be made.

To bottom line it, I believe that R.Wayne offers us the most for the price he will cost, and I also think that Belichick has his eye on him. Of course, that's just my opinion though.

Out of all of the positions, I believe that safety is the biggest free agent 'need' right now, and that may be where Belichick's bigger focus may be at the moment. Either way, no matter what--it will be an interesting free agency period.

All of this could change if a long term deal was reached with Welker prior to the March 13 day of free agency. That could make things significantly different, and we may even see a 'big' named defensive player signed if that were the case. Let's hope that they reach a longer term deal with Welker first, and then we'll go from there. Right now, he's certainly priority #1 at this juncture in time.

There are 3 key elements behind a scenario that lets Welker walk.

1. Its not good cap management to have 18-20% of your cap space tied up in 2 WRs

2. BB has made the hard determination that Edelman is ready to take over the slot receiver spot and excel.

3. BB has determined the the offense would be better if they added that high end. stretch the field, WR, plus Edelman; than if they kept Welker and went with a 2nd level WR option to stretch the field.

I do not think that the Pats can do both. keep welker, AND add the high end WR.

Now its more likely that the Pats will keep Welker and Branch. You can't underestimate the Brady factor in this. He will lobby hard to keep both. He probably could deal with losing one, but I don't think he'd be happy losing both of them.....and just think about the several hundred threads we'd have here comparing 2006 with 2012 if that were to happen.

The only reason I even bring up the scenario is Edelman. I find the kid very intriguing. I kind of discount his lack of receiving production the last 2 years as a function of having to play behind the most productive WR in the league over that period. I look back to his rookie year and find THAT production very telling, given the fact that he'd never played WR a single game in his life before that season. That he was able to pick up the offense so well. That he has shown the ability to make people miss as a punt returner and in those rare occasions he does get a chance to catch a pass. That he has show he is tough as well as smart when he played defense. That he has the raw physical skills of speed and quickness to play the position. That he is a lot younger and way cheaper than Welker.

It would certainly be a ballsy and controversial move if BB did it, but I think the presence of Edelman makes it a possibility. Without him on the roster, it would make no sense.

 

[patfanken]

Ken, do you really think Edelman is a worthy replacement at slot? I wonder whether he has the instincts for the position to approach anywhere near the production Welker has.

Actually I do Tune. He had his best statistical year in his rookie season playing WR for the first time in his life and doing it in what has been described as an extremely complicated offense. He hasn't done much as a receiver the last 2 seasons, but that's more of a function of who he was playing behind. He's had 2 more seasons to learn the WR craft. He is a much better WR today than he was his rookie year, even if the stats don't back that up.

We know he has the raw speed and quickness skills to play the position. We know he has the courage to play the game between the hashes. We know he has the innate ability to make the first man miss, which is critical for guy who has to get YAC to be effective in his position.

BOTTOM LINE - he is bigger, stronger, faster, and slightly less quick version of Wes Welker, who is entering the prime of his career while while at the same time Welker is entering the twilight of his.

BTW- I'm not saying I want to see Welker gone, but I'm just making a logical case for it to happen

 

[AQPE]

So many things to think about in this thread, but the one thought I have above all is that if the Pats were to decide to invest big money in a player other than Welker, I'd prefer it be Mario Williams or someone that has the potential to be disruptive for them on defense (I know Williams will cost much more than Welker, I'm just talking in general philosophical terms) rather than Vincent Jackson. It's quite valid for those who have pointed out that the Pats offense has failed them just as much in the playoffs since 2005 as had the defense, so if they put the money into offense I'd be happy. I just want to see them get off the field on third down and be able to shut teams down at the end of games, so I'd prefer to see them spend on defense, especially at the "elephant" position and/or safety.

 

[everlong]

Welker to the Jets will never happen because of the cap implicaitons as previously stated but would his first press conference be.....

I'm just happy to land on my feet here in NY. I just want to be a good foot solider. I'm jumping right in, no putting my toes in the water to see if it's cold. Glad to not have Revis on me, he has great feet...........

 

[Pogodi]

Great Thread

For the sake of argument, what would Welker be looking at if we let him test the open market?

Obviously we value him, but would other teams risk a lot for him? Wouldn't another team see him as a huge risk. I mean look at Branch in Seattle...

 

[Fencer]

Letting a Pro Bowl player go because his young replacement was here has worked twice in BB's regime that I can think of:

Bledsoe/Brady
Woody/Koppen

Is there a third example?

Asante and Seymour certainly left painful roster holes (although I'm OK w/ the Seymour trade).

Vinateri/Robbie Gould/Gostowski doesn't really count, IMO.
Milloy/Harrison definitely doesn't count.

Light/Solder hasn't happened yet, let alone been tested for success.

 

[Snake Eyes]

Actually I do Tune. He had his best statistical year in his rookie season playing WR for the first time in his life and doing it in what has been described as an extremely complicated offense. He hasn't done much as a receiver the last 2 seasons, but that's more of a function of who he was playing behind. He's had 2 more seasons to learn the WR craft. He is a much better WR today than he was his rookie year, even if the stats don't back that up.

We know he has the raw speed and quickness skills to play the position. We know he has the courage to play the game between the hashes. We know he has the innate ability to make the first man miss, which is critical for guy who has to get YAC to be effective in his position.

BOTTOM LINE - he is bigger, stronger, faster, and slightly less quick version of Wes Welker, who is entering the prime of his career while while at the same time Welker is entering the twilight of his.

BTW- I'm not saying I want to see Welker gone, but I'm just making a logical case for it to happen

Edelman is stronger, fast, AND quicker than Welker. All of Edelman's times, including the 10, 3-cone, and shuttle, were better than Welkers.

 

[The Boston Patriot]

Ridley and Vereen are the main backs based on what? Those killer highlight videos they inspired with their asses glued to the bench?

Ken is measuring them for their busts in Canton already! :bricks:

 

[conway]

Ridley has looked pretty solid at times. I don't think there's a major decline from BJGE to Ridley. Ridley/Woodhead would be fine with me in 2012, we'd just need to find some depth.

FWIW, I'd rather have Lloyd and Edelman and Branch/Underwood/Rookie than Branch and Welker and Underwood/Rookie. Especially assuming the former would be significantly cheaper than the latter. It's worth mentioning that the presence of Hernandez mitigates the loss of Welker in the slot to an extent.

When I try to imagine the 2012 53, what really stands out is the lack of quality DLs. I don't think Anderson re-signs at all, and I seriously doubt Carter re-signs for the vet minimum. I think Deadrick is better than this board gives him credit for, but after him and Wilfork, it gets pretty thin.

 

[VrabelJr]

There certainly is a chance that Welker will break the bank and walk away.

One obvious destination is Kansas City -- Cassell is the one mediocre QB in the league with whom Welker has played outstandingly well in the past.

Detroit could really use Welker as well.

KC already has Steve Breaston.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

Edelman is stronger, fast, AND quicker than Welker. All of Edelman's times, including the 10, 3-cone, and shuttle, were better than Welkers.

I don't care if Edelman IS stronger,quicker and faster than Welker......physical abilities are only a minor part of a complete player.

When it comes to overall talent.agility and smarts,Edelman can't hold Welker's jock.

Edelman would be a HUGE downgrade if Welker leaves and that means Gronkowski gets to see alot more guys in his face in 2012 and getting constantly double teamed because simply defenses do not fear or plan against Edelman anywhere near Welker's presence on the field.

The only way that losing Welker would not mean as much is if we sign Jackson,Lloyd or Colston who defenses will respect,but why would you let go a vital part of this offense to sign a veteran who has played elsewhere that is not familiar with the offense is another thing.

 

[Snake Eyes]

I don't care if Edelman IS stronger,quicker and faster than Welker......physical abilities are only a minor part of a complete player.

When it comes to overall talent.agility and smarts,Edelman can't hold Welker's jock.

Edelman would be a HUGE downgrade if Welker leaves and that means Gronkowski gets to see alot more guys in his face in 2012 and getting constantly double teamed because simply defenses do not fear or plan against Edelman anywhere near Welker's presence on the field.

The only way that losing Welker would not mean as much is if we sign Jackson,Lloyd or Colston who defenses will respect,but why would you let go a vital part of this offense to sign a veteran who has played elsewhere that is not familiar with the offense is another thing.

I wouldnt say they're a minor part, how important is your computer hardware relative to the software?

Edelman likely doesnt have the same connection to TFB that Welker has, and Welker also has better field navigation and diagnostic skills, but why should we expect Edelman to be on same level with so little experience? I think that with more reps Edelman will get better.

Also, the question isn't whether Welker is better than Edelman, he obviously is, the question is whether the offense is better with Edelman/Lloyd/and maybe Reggie Wayne than it is with Welker and _____. IF Welker wants big money that makes it unlikely to sign some upgrades at receiver then the offense might be better off without him assuming we can get those upgrades.