This is probably the "No CBA" plan . . .

[BelichickFan]

Starks is gone. We didn't tie $3M into Adam. We can save $7M by letting Willie dangle and risk losing him. Meanwhile :

Updating previous reports, Len Pasquarelli, of ESPN.com, reports the break down in negotiations over a new collective bargaining could cause what one general manager called "Bloody Thursday." With the projected salary cap expected to fall between $95 million to $96 million, some big-name players might get released by Thursday, March 2, as teams comply with the salary cap. An AFC team executive said, "In past years, you'd see a lot of guys released who maybe still had some name value, but who were really in decline in terms of production. This year? People are going to be stunned -- not just by the quantity of players who are cut by Thursday, but by the quality, too. It's going to be ugly. There's going to be blood in the streets and, compared to past years, it's going to be from some bluebloods, guys who can still play."

The Patriots aren't in the best cap position but we definitely have some space when factoring Willie in. We'll have room to play this game. Not with the best but we'll be in the game. We have other restructurings we can do later if we need the cap space if we use it on a few FA.

 

[shirtsleeve]

Starks is gone. We didn't tie $3M into Adam. We can save $7M by letting Willie dangle and risk losing him. Meanwhile :

Updating previous reports, Len Pasquarelli, of ESPN.com, reports the break down in negotiations over a new collective bargaining could cause what one general manager called "Bloody Thursday." With the projected salary cap expected to fall between $95 million to $96 million, some big-name players might get released by Thursday, March 2, as teams comply with the salary cap. An AFC team executive said, "In past years, you'd see a lot of guys released who maybe still had some name value, but who were really in decline in terms of production. This year? People are going to be stunned -- not just by the quantity of players who are cut by Thursday, but by the quality, too. It's going to be ugly. There's going to be blood in the streets and, compared to past years, it's going to be from some bluebloods, guys who can still play."

The Patriots aren't in the best cap position but we definitely have some space when factoring Willie in. We'll have room to play this game. Not with the best but we'll be in the game. We have other restructurings we can do later if we need the cap space if we use it on a few FA.

Wha???
You gotta be smokin' the crack pipe!
:bricks:
We lose Willie, this team is DONE. Stick a fork in it, its all done!
Willie is the reason why the locker room accepts these contracts and goes with the flow. He OWNS that locker room. He goes, all hell breaks loose!
You better PRAY he stays.

 

[BelichickFan]

I'm not saying I want him gone. But if the FA market is flooded, a 34 year old like him will get lost in the shuffle. We can still likely re-sign him but we'll need the money in the short term.

 

[maverick4]

We lose Willie, this team is DONE. Stick a fork in it, its all done!
Willie is the reason why the locker room accepts these contracts and goes with the flow. He OWNS that locker room. He goes, all hell breaks loose!

Why?

I know Willie is a great veteran leader on this team, but how is he better and more indispensable than what Tedy, Tom, Rodney, Matt and Richard bring to the team? Those guys have heart, and also all took below market contracts...

.

 

[shirtsleeve]

Why?

I know Willie is a great veteran leader on this team, but how is he better and more indispensable than what Tedy, Tom, Rodney, and Richard being to the team?

.

On the field, no. In the locker room, you have no F' ing idea. Like I said. He OWNS the locker room. Its his. Period. Others, like Tedy, may mouth off and get all ra ra, but when a rookie starts mouthing off to the media, Willie just has to walk by, and boom! all you get outta the rookie is the company line. These guys stay focused and as a team, and put up with the selfless attitude and accept the constant restructurings and swallow their pride daily. Because of Willie.

 

[groundgame]

I'm not saying I want him gone. But if the FA market is flooded, a 34 year old like him will get lost in the shuffle. We can still likely re-sign him but we'll need the money in the short term.

#55 in '06: Cleveland @ $7m per yr.

 

[shirtsleeve]

#55 in '06: Cleveland @ $7m per yr.

If we don't get our sh*t together, Romeo will gobble him so fast, it'll make your head spin. No Doubt. He KNOWS.

 

[spacecrime]

Wha???
You gotta be smokin' the crack pipe!
:bricks:
We lose Willie, this team is DONE. Stick a fork in it, its all done!
Willie is the reason why the locker room accepts these contracts and goes with the flow. He OWNS that locker room. He goes, all hell breaks loose!
You better PRAY he stays.

After beating the Rams in SB XXXVI, BB exposed WMG to the Texans in the expansion draft.

He wasn't taken,obviously, but it shows that your opinion of WMG is not the same as BB's opinion.

Belichickfan has it right, I think. He has laid out what is likely to happen, and is supported by history.

Anyway, what you are saying is what most people were screaming when Lawyer Milloy was cut. 0-16 predictions were made. 14-2 was the reality.

This team can survive the loss of any one player. It would be sad to lose WMG, but hardlyl a calamity.

 

[BelichickFan]

#55 in '06: Cleveland @ $7m per yr.

There is no way the Browns will use up $7M a year for McGinnest unless there's some fake years at the end. No way.

 

[hwc]

Guys. With no CBA extension, the name of the game this offseason for the entire league will be how much you have to gut your team, not how much you improve it. The Pats are in pretty good shape. Losing Givens and Vinatieri is chicken-feed compared to what many teams will be facing. My guess is that there will be teams that don't have the cap room to field a 53 man roster.

 

[BelichickFan]

Guys. With no CBA extension, the name of the game this offseason for the entire league will be how much you have to gut your team, not how much you improve it.

There's two groups (and a third in the middle).

Group A like Cleveland, Seattle, Minnesota who have lots of cap space now.
Group B like Washington and the Jets who are way over the cap
Group C like New England.

Group A has lots of cap space and can go on a shopping spree.
Group B will be happy just to not get killed.

Group C, though, is a team like New England which was around the cap. Adam doesn't count as his contract wasn't factored in yet but saving $3.5M on Starks and, presumably, $7M on McGinnest. And, if we want, another $1.5M on Poole gets us in the moderate part of Group A. Nowhere close to the $20M under that some teams are but solidly in the $7+M under.

Now, it's not a true $7M as it doesn't account for draft choices, a full roster, etc, but that money can be created later re-doing other deals as needed. But some teams will cut, or let go, players just to create space to get in on the buying spree. The Patriots aren't Group A, nor are they Group C. If they just tweak McGinnest's deal they're kind of out of the game. Teams will be letting older players like that become FA figuring that they might get a young player they really like or their old player will get lost in the shuffle.

This is all my opinion, not fact. But I really think teams in Group B will let players go even though they don't have to. Then they're in the shopping spree game.

 

[hwc]

The reason that I think there will be a lot of gutting on Friday is that the end of the CBA makes the normal restructuring to free up room for draft picks, etc. very difficult. Anyone with a roster bonus due this week is a potential cut.

I'm surprised there hasn't been some media about the Colts. By my reckoning, they are looking at a minimum $16 million cap number for Manning unless a new CBA and the 30% rule goes away.

 

[Miguel]

There's two groups (and a third in the middle).

Group A like Cleveland, Seattle, Minnesota who have lots of cap space now.
Group B like Washington and the Jets who are way over the cap
Group C like New England.

Group A has lots of cap space and can go on a shopping spree.
Group B will be happy just to not get killed.

Group C, though, is a team like New England which was around the cap. Adam doesn't count as his contract wasn't factored in yet but saving $3.5M on Starks and, presumably, $7M on McGinnest. And, if we want, another $1.5M on Poole gets us in the moderate part of Group A. Nowhere close to the $20M under that some teams are but solidly in the $7+M under.

Now, it's not a true $7M as it doesn't account for draft choices, a full roster, etc, but that money can be created later re-doing other deals as needed. But some teams will cut, or let go, players just to create space to get in on the buying spree. The Patriots aren't Group A, nor are they Group C. If they just tweak McGinnest's deal they're kind of out of the game. Teams will be letting older players like that become FA figuring that they might get a young player they really like or their old player will get lost in the shuffle.

This is all my opinion, not fact. But I really think teams in Group B will let players go even though they don't have to. Then they're in the shopping spree game.

Excellent post.

Let's not forget that each and every year teams with a lot of cap space still let players go when those players' cap values do not meet their production.

 

[Miguel]

After beating the Rams in SB XXXVI, BB exposed WMG to the Texans in the expansion draft.

He wasn't taken,obviously, but it shows that your opinion of WMG is not the same as BB's opinion.

That was in 2002. It is now 2006. Are you saying that BB has the same opinion of Willie now as he did then. Why would he??Compare Willie's play and production over the past 4 years as compared to the 4 years before the expansion draft. Willie has played in 62 of 64 possible regular season games since 2002. In the 4 years before the expansion draft he played in 50 of 64 possible games.

http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/3927

His stats for the past 4 years surpassed his stats for the years 1998 through 2001.

 

[Miguel]

Guys. With no CBA extension, the name of the game this offseason for the entire league will be how much you have to gut your team, not how much you improve it.

For the entire league. NO. For some in the league, yes. You are greatly overstating this. There are more teams under the projected cap than over.

http://www.profootballweekly.com/PFW/Commentary/Columns/2006/reynolds022006.htm

The Pats are in pretty good shape.

Compared to what number of teams.

Losing Givens and Vinatieri is chicken-feed compared to what many teams will be facing.

By many, how many teams do you mean approximately??

My guess is that there will be teams that don't have the cap room to field a 53 man roster.

And they are???

 

[Pats726]

Miguel....great points...as always...There is a great unknown of what may happen and its ramifications down the line..I really wonder if both sides will let it happen?? Patriots are in OK shape..could be better or worse...BB/SP will need to make there way through a pretty big mess...but I'd rather have them at the helm than others..

 

[aabtec]

On the field, no. In the locker room, you have no F' ing idea. Like I said. He OWNS the locker room. Its his. Period. Others, like Tedy, may mouth off and get all ra ra, but when a rookie starts mouthing off to the media, Willie just has to walk by, and boom! all you get outta the rookie is the company line. These guys stay focused and as a team, and put up with the selfless attitude and accept the constant restructurings and swallow their pride daily. Because of Willie.

Willie will be snapped up by either the Browns, Jets or Dolphins..all three teams need leadership and Willie is just that.

 

[Miguel]

Let's not forget that the lack of an extension will hurt the Patriots in one area, more than most teams - the use of LTBE/NLTBE incentives. The Patriots probably use them more than most teams. Their adjusted cap numbers has been lower than the announced cap number for the past few years. In 2005 the Patriots had the 2nd lowest adjusted cap number because of the incentives reached in 2004.

So, the Pats will either have to limit their use of incentives or leave some cap room open to account for the incentives. If it is the former, it will raise the cost this year of signing players. If it is the latter, the Patriots will have less cap money to spend on players.

 

[Pats726]

Let's not forget that the lack of an extension will hurt the Patriots in one area, more than most teams - the use of LTBE/NLTBE incentives. The Patriots probably use them more than most teams. Their adjusted cap numbers has been lower than the announced cap number for the past few years. In 2005 the Patriots had the 2nd lowest adjusted cap number because of the incentives reached in 2004.

So, the Pats will either have to limit their use of incentives or leave some cap room open to account for the incentives. If it is the former, it will raise the cost this year of signing players. If it is the latter, the Patriots will have less cap money to spend on players.

Another great point....I can't help but think that this mess will really take the focus away from the field and onto numbers and the like as teams scramble with contracts..

 

[mgteich]

Team will scramble with contracts in any case. All organizations that are at all competent have plans with and without a new CBA. Miguel's excellent analysis has us with $8.75M net available in free agency. This is plenty to get the job done.

The patriots are in better shape than most without a new CBA.

Another great point....I can't help but think that this mess will really take the focus away from the field and onto numbers and the like as teams scramble with contracts..