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This COULD Happen

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by Bostonian1962, Jan 8, 2010.

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  1. Bostonian1962

    Bostonian1962 Rookie

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    O.K., I'm not thrilled that Wes Welker got injured, but hear me out. Let's say, for discussion's sake that Edelman does an adequate job replacing Welker.

    Well, for those of you who remember, the Pats were at or near the tops in the league, for man hours lost to injuries in the years they won their Super Bowls.

    If you think about this year, however, things shape up much better, IMHO.

    The offensive line is deep and healthy right now. Matt Light, Volmer, Kaczur, and Neal had their injuries early on, missed a little bit of time (essentially resting), and are now back healthy.

    Same thing with the D Line. Wolfolk and Warren will be back healthy, and while they were out, the backups got some very invaluable playing time. The unit should be fully intact for the playoff run.

    Linebacking corp is fully healthy, Mayo's injury having come early in the season.

    For DBs, Springs is back. Bodden was a healthy scratch last week, and will be fresh. Sanders is over his injury, so the entire defensive backfield is finally healthy.

    Look at the RBs. Faulk and Maroney were healthy scratches last week, as they recharged their batteries. Now Taylor and Morris are back, and the entire backfield is finally healthy, again just in time for the playoffs.

    TEs: Fully healthy.

    There is a better than average chance that Baker, Aiken, Edelman, and Watson etc. pick their game up a notch, as a result of the Welker injury. Moss wants a ring really bad.

    What a great time of year to be this healthy. I would not be remotely surprised to see this team playing their best football from here through the Super Bowl. Call it glass full. Call it wishful thinking. Call it homerism. But, you have to admit, they seem to have a relatively full assortment of players, save for Welker.

    Has anybody else noticed this?
  2. oldskool138

    oldskool138 Rookie

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    #75 Jersey

    Re: This COULD Happen:

    Being healthy is one thing. Playing as a team with an identity is another.
  3. Bertil

    Bertil Rookie

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    Re: This COULD Happen:

    Thanks for letting us all borrow these for the moment

    [​IMG]
    Last edited: Jan 8, 2010
  4. pao

    pao Rookie

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    Re: This COULD Happen:

    Great points. Plus the Patriots have played a tough schedule so they are better than their stats show, imo. Check this out on the CMB....

    Breakdown of our Possible Divisional Game Opponents... - The Official San Diego Chargers Forum

    This is the interesting post (if you want the conclusion look at the bolded second to last sentence)

    "As I promised, some findings...

    I was looking at a way to improve the scoring rankings. My idea was to take data on points scored and points allowed for many years, paired with the NFL ranking for that year, and come up with an average historical ranking to be assigned to teams. Basically, it's like looking at the raw PPG stat and giving it context for comparison. That way, if you had a wide discrepancy between teams, it would be reflected as the difference in historical ranking would be greater than that year's difference in ranking. And, likewise, we'd probably see the defenses this year between #4 and #16 more bunched up in ranking reflecting how many above-average defenses there were that performed similarly.

    I used the last decade's worth of data (2000-2009), and may add more if I get the time.

    For both the offenses and defenses, there was a generally linear trend for teams that ranked between the top-5 and bottom-5. But, as you go to the extremes, teams stood out as exceptionally good/bad. For the offense and defense, a linear fit produced a high R² value. But, to best account for the extremes, a cubic fit was much better, and produced the highest R² value.

    RANKING vs. POINTS SCORED

    http://img85.imageshack.us/img85/705...tranking00.jpg


    Quote:
    HIST.RANK = (1.754×(10^ -6))×[₧]³ ― 0.00177×[₧]² + 0.447×[₧] ― 0.0999

    R² = 0.9413

    Outliers: '07 Patriots (589 pts.)

    RANKING vs. POINTS ALLOWED

    http://img63.imageshack.us/img63/142...tranking00.jpg


    Quote:
    HIST.RANK = 103.61 ― 1.153×[₧] + 0.003978×[₧]² ― (3.932*(10^ -6))×[₧]³

    R² = 0.9509

    Outliers: '00 Ravens (165 pts.)
    Outliers: '08 Lions (517 pts.); '09 Lions (494 pts.); '01 Colts (486 pts.)

    Applying this historical rating system to the playoff teams, we get...

    Hist. Offensive Rankings ('09 NFL ranking)

    Saints: 1* (1)
    Vikings: 1.1 (2)
    Packers: 1.7 (3)
    Chargers: 2.1 (4)
    -
    Eagles: 4.4 (5)
    Patriots: 4.6 (6)
    Colts: 5.8 (7)
    -
    Ravens: 8.9 (9)
    -
    Cardinals: 11.1 (11)
    Cowboys: 13.1 (14)
    Jets: 15.0 (17)
    -
    Bengals: 21.3 (22)

    * the actual ranking for the Saints was 0.2, meaning that they were better than the average #1 scoring offense in the league

    Quick take: This was definitely an offensive-favored year. There were two teams on par with #1 scoring offenses, and two more on par with #2 scoring offenses. A total of six offenses would be on average rated top-5 in a given year. After that the ratings fell closer to the NFL ranking, which really highlighted the difference in the elite offenses this year versus those that were fairly average - or, in the case of the Bengals, below-average.

    Hist. Defensive Rankings ('09 NFL ranking)

    Jets: 1.4 (1)
    Cowboys: 2.5 (2)
    Ravens: 3.8 (3)
    -
    Patriots: 7.1 (5)
    Bengals: 8.1 (6)
    Packers: 9.1 (7)
    Colts: 10.8 (8)
    Vikings: 11.7 (10)
    Chargers: 13.2 (11)
    Cardinals: 14.1 (T-14)
    -
    Eagles: 16.3 (19)
    Saints: 17.1 (20)

    Quick take: It was said that there was no truly dominant defense this year, and I would tend to agree, but there were three that ranked top-5 for a given year. Like I mentioned before, the clustering between #4 and #16 in the NFL ranking led to the above-average defenses being historically ranked closer. These above-average defenses, as a result of a lack of elite defenses in the league this year, tended to be ranked 2-3 spots higher than in an average year. And, conversely, the below-average defenses by NFL ranking proved to be fairly average. This isn't that surprising. The dropoff between the #20 NFL-ranked defense (Saints) and the #21 NFL-ranked defense (Bears) is 34 points, roughly three-quarters of the difference between the #4 and #16 NFL-ranked defenses.

    Revised Balance Rankings

    Packers: 5.4
    Patriots: 5.85
    Ravens: 6.35
    Vikings: 6.4
    -
    Chargers: 7.65
    Cowboys: 7.8
    Jets: 8.2
    Colts: 8.3
    Saints: 9.05
    -
    Eagles: 10.35
    -
    Cardinals: 12.6
    -
    Bengals: 14.7

    Quick take: Unsurprisingly, 9 of the 12 playoff teams on average rank top-10, with the Eagles coming very close. The remaining two teams are very far apart, but share a big similarity. The Cardinals are balanced, but only average to above-average on both sides of the ball. The Bengals, on the other hand, are very unbalanced, riding a strong defense to the postseason. Those two teams are similar, though, in that they are both projected to be 1+ win overachievers using the net points statistic. And, both go up against teams whose records do not reflect the true quality of the team, again via the net points statistic. The Packers and Patriots might just be the quiet juggernauts in the postseason. We'll have to see how this translates to the field, though.

    Enjoy!
  5. shmessy

    shmessy Maude Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #75 Jersey

    Re: This COULD Happen:


    Here's some cold water:

    Sit back, imagine we have a lead in the second half.

    (whispering) Now remember our defensive coordinator is Dean Pees and the offensive coordinator is Bill O'Brien and they have their hands around thier necks.

    Personnel is not the reason the Patriots are not 15-1 this year. The only game this team lost on the field this year was New Orleans. The rest were botched lobotomies.
    Last edited: Jan 8, 2010
  6. Sicilian

    Sicilian On the Roster

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    Re: This COULD Happen:

    You're right, why be optimistic at all?

    "What a great time of year to be this healthy. I would not be remotely surprised to see this team playing their best football from here through the Super Bowl. Call it glass full. Call it wishful thinking. Call it homerism. But, you have to admit, they seem to have a relatively full assortment of players, save for Welker."

    Look at this part of his quote. Where is this out of line? Where is this "rose colored glasses"? Would not be surprised, seem to have a relatively full assortment of players, etc, is NOT homerism. It's an observation and it's a good one.
  7. Tunescribe

    Tunescribe PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #61 Jersey

    Re: This COULD Happen:

    Good post. It's very well worth taking note that the Patriots are relatively healthy for this point in the season, though you've got to assume that just because the likes of Warren, Wilfork, etc., are going to play doesn't mean they're fully recovered. It would be great to get up on the Ravens early so BB can pick his spots resting people.

    I'm most pumped for seeing what the healthy offensive line can do with Morris, Taylor and Faulk sharing touches. Gotta get that running game and short passing game going.
  8. shmessy

    shmessy Maude Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #75 Jersey

    Re: This COULD Happen:

    I'm so sorry.

    I FULLY agree with Bostonian1962 points about the health of the personnel.

    Can you help me out here, Sicilian, and tell me where I wrote that his post was "out of line", "homerism" or "rose-colored glasses".
    Last edited: Jan 8, 2010
  9. PATRIOTSFANINPA

    PATRIOTSFANINPA Rookie

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    #12 Jersey

    Re: This COULD Happen:

    Desire to win is the key to getting victories in the playoffs,I dont think the young players have that yet.

    This is STILL a defense in transition,even in the playoffs and thats where the difference lies between winning and going home.
  10. WhiZa

    WhiZa Rookie

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    If there is any team out there that can lose a player and actually play better it's the Patriots. Some fans just can't understand that, but it's been proven every year.

    Also there's a lot to be said about the element of surprise when a new player steps on the field.
  11. Sicilian

    Sicilian On the Roster

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    Re: This COULD Happen:

    Sorry, I quoted you because you were the last comment when I started typing, but it was directed more at the crowd in general.

    We're going into the playoffs, a one and done scenario, and focusing on the negatives just makes the whole thing sound pointless.

    But my post was snippier than I intended, I apologize for that. Long day.
  12. condon84

    condon84 Rookie

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    Re: This COULD Happen:

    Didn't Pees almost die last week from choking himself too hard?
  13. VJCPatriot

    VJCPatriot Rookie

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    Re: This COULD Happen:

    Thanks for the statistical analysis. But how do you account for the dropoff from Welker to Edelman?

    OP makes a very good point how the starters on this team are for the most part healthy and ready to go. Welker's loss may be felt, but there is opportunity for the other starters to step up. Is Edelman up to the task?
    Can Brady get the other pass catchers more involved in the offense?

    Much as I loved the combo of Moss/Welker I felt at times that Brady zeroed in too much on Welker on 3rd downs. Hard to blame him cos Welker is so good, but still I think that made our offense somewhat predictable on 3rd downs. And maybe defenses were accounting for Welker by the second half?

    The defense has been Jekyll and Hyde. There were some games where the secondary shined and you could see all the potential talent lurking in guys like Butler, Chung, Meriweather, etc. And there were other games where assignments were completely botched. If the defense can just play up to its talent level and if some creative schemes are used to manufacture pressure, I think we could be in for a surprise come the playoffs.

    The talent is there, let's see them put together consistent 60 minute efforts. And I'm talking about all the units of the team here, not just the defense.
    Last edited: Jan 8, 2010
  14. StraightCashHomey81

    StraightCashHomey81 Rookie

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    Your point about the O-Line is something that I feel is flying underneath the radar. A Light, Mankins, Koppen, Neal, Vollmer unit has played one full game together this year (Jax), and unsurprisingly, it was easily our most balanced offensive game (throwing the Titans game out). There is no weak link on this line, and all 5 either have been to the Pro Bowl or have Pro Bowl level talent. Vollmer maybe the most talented, and the other 4 have substantial postseason experience together. A dominant performance, which they are capable of, could bring the Pats farther than many believe.
  15. Sicilian

    Sicilian On the Roster

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    Re: This COULD Happen:

    Very poor taste.
  16. robertweathers

    robertweathers Rookie

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    Re: This COULD Happen:

    W/O Welker you need to throw everything out the window- or most of it at least. Even some of the defensive statistics. D players potentiall getting less rest due to more stalled drives, opponent's score and field position dictating different coverages, playcalling....

    It's whole new season. Lots of unkowns now..

    My .02$
    Last edited: Jan 8, 2010
  17. condon84

    condon84 Rookie

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    Re: This COULD Happen:

    He checked out fine. We can joke about it.
  18. Sicilian

    Sicilian On the Roster

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    Re: This COULD Happen:

    Of course you can. It's still in poor taste, and also factually incorrect as the defensive collapse occurred AFTER he left.
  19. patsfan-1982

    patsfan-1982 Rookie

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    i think they can get by the ravens, but as far as beating the colts, or san diego. even with welker, i don't think they could have made it to the super bowl

    this D is just to weak vs the pass and it would take 3 amazing games from brady and moss to get to the SB and that's not going to happen


    no one is going to let moss beat them they will put 2 and 3 guys on him at all time's and brady is not taking with the D is giveing him everything is a ugly deep ball from him


    they should beat the ravens but after that i think they are done and it go's beyond welker, it started in the offseason when they traded seymour and then did not draft any pass rushers in the draft
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