They never learn - How Bout Those Bills

[upstater1]

A good QB makes an immense amount of difference. There was a ton of pressure on the Broncos D since the offense went 3 and out so often. D's like that will not hold up. With Manning holding the ball this year, the defense becomes that much better.

 

[BradyFTW!]

they beat us last year, so they are capable of winning against good teams. i think they could go 10-6 next year and contend for a wildcard spot. don't want to see them in the playoffs since they are a division rival.

Brady threw four interceptions, several of them downright flukish, and they still needed a fourth-quarter comeback and a pick six to win the game. Stuff like that can happen, which is exactly why any team can beat anyone, but that was one of the more flukish results that you'll ever see.

Bottom line, as soon as the Bills stopped causing turnovers at an insane, unsustainable clip, they stopped winning football games. Regression to the mean hit them like a bag of bricks.

 

[rookBoston]

I think the Bills are improving. But I've said that each of the last four years, and they haven't really hit their mark. I dont think the problem is at QB. Maybe this is the year for them. I think they've got the best chance at upsetting the Pats in the East.

 

[crew1954]

I could see them winning the WC, the Jets have huge bust potential everywhere

you need an elite QB to beat the Pats though and the Bills don't have it, simple as that.

Seems like the Forrest Gump types do pretty well.

 

[Ring 6]

I don't think it's a "great D" I think it's a better D than what Indy has had. I think Decker is a very good receiver, Manning has shown he can connect with Tamme and Thomas has potential which I trust a healthy Manning to bring out, since he's been pretty good at that over the years. They will have an adequate running game which is a moot point if Manning is Manning. Obviously though Manning's health is a question, but nobody can be sure he won't be what he normally is and if he is they are instantly a threat to the Pats.

Indys Ds were not terrible. They sucked vs the run, mostly because they sold out to the pass rush. In Mannings last 6 years they ranked 23, 8, 7, 1, 23, 2
in scoring defense.
The Broncos last year were 24.

Decker is not a VERY GOOD receiver.He had 50 NFL receptions in 2 years.
He may qualify as 'better than expected' for the 87th pick in the draft, but you will struggle to find any team that doesn't have at least 2 guys better than him.
Thomas has 54 catches in 2 years, and was not even playing much until the traded Lloyd because he would be wasted since they weren't going to throw the ball, and Thomas got looked at 3-4 times a game on basic slant and go routes. To think he can go from that to what Wayne or Harrision were to Manning is a huge reach.
Tamme caught 19 passes last year.
He caught 3 in each of his 1st 2 years with Manning.
In 2010 he caught 67 for 9.4 yards a catch. At best he is a slow, and limited safety valve.
Not one of these guys is a good receiver at this point, and as a group they are easily as weak as any team I can think of that isn't named the Browns.

 

[TyronePoole]

Indys Ds were not terrible. They sucked vs the run, mostly because they sold out to the pass rush. In Mannings last 6 years they ranked 23, 8, 7, 1, 23, 2
in scoring defense.
The Broncos last year were 24.

Decker is not a VERY GOOD receiver.He had 50 NFL receptions in 2 years.
He may qualify as 'better than expected' for the 87th pick in the draft, but you will struggle to find any team that doesn't have at least 2 guys better than him.
Thomas has 54 catches in 2 years, and was not even playing much until the traded Lloyd because he would be wasted since they weren't going to throw the ball, and Thomas got looked at 3-4 times a game on basic slant and go routes. To think he can go from that to what Wayne or Harrision were to Manning is a huge reach.
Tamme caught 19 passes last year.
He caught 3 in each of his 1st 2 years with Manning.
In 2010 he caught 67 for 9.4 yards a catch. At best he is a slow, and limited safety valve.
Not one of these guys is a good receiver at this point, and as a group they are easily as weak as any team I can think of that isn't named the Browns.

Most of this is explained away with QB play. Scoring defenses are going to be wildly different when one team's opponents have to throw to keep up with Manning and the other with Tim Tebow and his 8 passes a game.

Ditto for why Decker and Thomas have few receptions. You even conceded as much with your comment about Lloyd. And Tamme last year didn't have Manning. Tamme may not be great, but he's solid for Manning.

I think the Pats are better I just think that just like I feared playing the Colts I will fear the broncos if Manning is healthy.

 

[Ring 6]

Most of this is explained away with QB play. Scoring defenses are going to be wildly different when one team's opponents have to throw to keep up with Manning and the other with Tim Tebow and his 8 passes a game.

Ditto for why Decker and Thomas have few receptions. You even conceded as much with your comment about Lloyd. And Tamme last year didn't have Manning. Tamme may not be great, but he's solid for Manning.

I think the Pats are better I just think that just like I feared playing the Colts I will fear the broncos if Manning is healthy.

Try this:
1) How many teams can you name that have a worse top 3 receiving options than Thomas, Decker and Tamme.
2) Where do you think the Bronco defense ranks today from 1 to 32, taking into consideration Brain Dawkins retired and last year they played near a top 10 with him and a bottom 5 without him.

And again, it is not logical to think Manning is anywhere near the level he was when we last saw him, and his 2010 season was already a start of the decline.

 

[everlong]

It's hard for me to really pick on Bills fans for having hope since I've lived through several bad droughts with the Pats. They made a splash in free agency and had a respectable draft. If I was a fan I'd be excited too.

 

[patsderoer]

Try this:
1) How many teams can you name that have a worse top 3 receiving options than Thomas, Decker and Tamme.
2) Where do you think the Bronco defense ranks today from 1 to 32, taking into consideration Brain Dawkins retired and last year they played near a top 10 with him and a bottom 5 without him.

And again, it is not logical to think Manning is anywhere near the level he was when we last saw him, and his 2010 season was already a start of the decline.

I think the Broncos pass rush will be very improved next year. They added Wolfe, and they already have Von Miller and Dummervil. Watch out for that pass rush.

 

[TyronePoole]

Try this:
1) How many teams can you name that have a worse top 3 receiving options than Thomas, Decker and Tamme.

I don't think it really matters with a healthy Manning (or brady who we like to remind everyone went to the AFCCG with Reche Caldwell) but I think the Ravens for one have a comparable if not worse group to name a top AFC team.

2) Where do you think the Bronco defense ranks today from 1 to 32, taking into consideration Brain Dawkins retired and last year they played near a top 10 with him and a bottom 5 without him.

I think they are probably in the 10-15 range

And again, it is not logical to think Manning is anywhere near the level he was when we last saw him, and his 2010 season was already a start of the decline.

this may be the case, but I said from the beginning that the Broncos were only a threat if he was healthy. Obviously I don't now whether he will be, but it seems pretty treacherous to bank on him being done.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Indys Ds were not terrible. They sucked vs the run, mostly because they sold out to the pass rush. In Mannings last 6 years they ranked 23, 8, 7, 1, 23, 2
in scoring defense.
The Broncos last year were 24.

Decker is not a VERY GOOD receiver.He had 50 NFL receptions in 2 years.
He may qualify as 'better than expected' for the 87th pick in the draft, but you will struggle to find any team that doesn't have at least 2 guys better than him.
Thomas has 54 catches in 2 years, and was not even playing much until the traded Lloyd because he would be wasted since they weren't going to throw the ball, and Thomas got looked at 3-4 times a game on basic slant and go routes. To think he can go from that to what Wayne or Harrision were to Manning is a huge reach.
Tamme caught 19 passes last year.
He caught 3 in each of his 1st 2 years with Manning.
In 2010 he caught 67 for 9.4 yards a catch. At best he is a slow, and limited safety valve.
Not one of these guys is a good receiver at this point, and as a group they are easily as weak as any team I can think of that isn't named the Browns.

44 receptions with Tim Tebow running the offense is like 70 anywhere else.

In all seriousness, though, Decker's 44-612 accounts for 20.3% of their receptions and 22.6% of their receiving yards. Those percentages, plugged into the Pats' offense, would roughly equal 80 catches and 1200 yards. Obviously that's a quick and dirty calculation that shouldn't be taken too seriously in its own right and fails to take a ton of stuff into account. Still, I think it succeeds in showing how unfair it is to look at Decker's production on absolute terms, without adjusting for the fact that he was saddled with the worst-throwing QB in modern NFL history.

 

[LetsGoBuffalo]

The Bills seem to Believe they are now the team to beat in the east with their Solid draft.

IMO it's pretty clear NE is still the cream of the crop in the AFC. I'm not sure many Bills fans think they are the team team to beat in the AFCE, but I do think most of us believe that they are finally building the right way (from the inside out). Many of us are also pleased with the commitment the Nix FO is showing to building a real defense.

 

[Ring 6]

44 receptions with Tim Tebow running the offense is like 70 anywhere else.

In all seriousness, though, Decker's 44-612 accounts for 20.3% of their receptions and 22.6% of their receiving yards. Those percentages, plugged into the Pats' offense, would roughly equal 80 catches and 1200 yards. Obviously that's a quick and dirty calculation that shouldn't be taken too seriously in its own right and fails to take a ton of stuff into account. Still, I think it succeeds in showing how unfair it is to look at Decker's production on absolute terms, without adjusting for the fact that he was saddled with the worst-throwing QB in modern NFL history.

Thats a pretty flawed approach.
I have never bought into the idea that a player would do something he has never done if he was somewhere else.
You are saying he caught 20% of the passes so he is as good as someone who caught 20% of the passes.
I am talking about the quality of player he is, and adding stats to illustrate it, not exptrapolating stats to say he did 'the equivalent' of someone who actually produced on the field.
He was part of the poor passing offense not just a victim of it.

 

[Ring 6]

I don't think it really matters with a healthy Manning (or brady who we like to remind everyone went to the AFCCG with Reche Caldwell) but I think the Ravens for one have a comparable if not worse group to name a top AFC team.

How can the fact that they may have the worst receiving corps in the NFL have nothing to do with our discussion about your comment that they have good receivers?

I think they are probably in the 10-15 range

Wow. What did they do to improve from 24th to 10-15? They lost the guy who had the most impact by being in or out of the lineup. Bailey is a year older. Goodman is gone. I didn't see the acquisition that woudl make them jump 9-14 teams.

this may be the case, but I said from the beginning that the Broncos were only a threat if he was healthy. Obviously I don't now whether he will be, but it seems pretty treacherous to bank on him being done.

Tracherous? Its mean to recognize his skills already started to erode before he missed a year, changed teams and has less weapons?
OK, I'm sorry. I love Peyton, he will probably be better than ever this year. He may throw for 75 TDs. Is that better?

 

[AzPatsFan]

I expect the Bills to finish second in the AFCE, at 9-7 or 8-8. But the Pats will be four or five games better than that. While the Jets and Dolphins compete for last place. The Dolphins, will be breaking in a new rookie QB, and the Jesters for general team dissension, QB controversy, and acquiring and being a team full of "losers".

Even their top draft picks are more of the same. Quinton Couples is reputedly lazy and selfish. He refused to move to DT,when the team needed him to do so, as it would hurt his draft position. Hill is a Combine "workout wonder" of size and speed and not many football skills.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Thats a pretty flawed approach.
I have never bought into the idea that a player would do something he has never done if he was somewhere else.
You are saying he caught 20% of the passes so he is as good as someone who caught 20% of the passes.
I am talking about the quality of player he is, and adding stats to illustrate it, not exptrapolating stats to say he did 'the equivalent' of someone who actually produced on the field.
He was part of the poor passing offense not just a victim of it.

That's not what I'm saying at all. I made it very clear, in fact, that that wasn't what I was saying. I also made it very clear what I was saying: that to fairly evaluate a receiver, you somehow have to weight his production in accordance with the system that he was in. With the Broncos, where there was an obvious cause (Tebow's basically unprecedented inability to pass effectively), a pretty significant adjustment must be made.

I don't claim to be able to make that adjustment, because it would require time, knowledge, and data that I simply don't have. All that I can do is say--pretty defensively, IMO--that Decker is going to put up far better stats than he did last year, simply because of the changes in the offense around him.

You know how almost every receiver who leaves the Patriots pretty much falls off a cliff, statistically? It's like that, except the opposite.

 

[TriplecHamp]

lol a good offseason doesn't make you the team to beat. Winning games in october-january does.

 

[LetsGoBuffalo]

I expect the Bills to finish second in the AFCE, at 9-7 or 8-8.

Hopefully they'll do better than that. They have 6 of their first 9 on the road, so if they can come out of that stretch 5-4 or 6-3 then i'm hoping 11-5 or 10-6 is within reach.

It's April. We'll see. But I'm enthusiastic about the way they are building. If some of this year's rooks pan out and last year's promising draft class improves as expected then they may finally have enough depth to hang in there and compete when starters inevitably go down.

 

[Deus Irae]

Hopefully they'll do better than that. They have 6 of their first 9 on the road, so if they can come out of that stretch 5-4 or 6-3 then i'm hoping 11-5 or 10-6 is within reach.

It's April. We'll see. But I'm enthusiastic about the way they are building. If some of this year's rooks pan out and last year's promising draft class improves as expected then they may finally have enough depth to hang in there and compete when starters inevitably go down.

They play the 49ers, the Patriots twice, the Texans, the Chiefs, the Jets and the Titans in that first 9, along with the Browns and Cardinals. After those first 9, their schedule should be a cakewalk. If they're 6-3 after 9, they should cruise to 12 wins. I just don't see that happening.

 

[LetsGoBuffalo]

They play the 49ers, the Patriots twice, the Texans, the Chiefs, the Jets and the Titans in that first 9, along with the Browns and Cardinals.

Yep.

If they can knock off the Jets in W1 (big if) that would be a great start. I expect a W in the home opener vs KC, and a W @ CLE. If they can split with NE and split out west with ARI/SF (back to back weeks and they've already said they'll stay out there to reduce travel fatigue) they should be in good shape. A loss to HOU and a W vs TEN @ home would put them at 5-4.

Not unreasonable. Not a given by any stretch, but not out of the question either.