THEORETICALLY decoupling Brady/Belichick/Kraft

[PatsFanInVa]

Let me begin with a fervent prayer that this does not happen in practice for many many years. These three, in combination, virtually guarantee annual competition for THE ultimate prize, season after season. These last ten years have included none where the Pats have been eliminated from consideration early, which is a recurring phenomenon for many NFL franchises, and used to be our lot more often than I like to remember.

Having said that, how important is each piece?

- Robert Kraft, age 69. Longevity (high side): 10-20 years. Season ticket holder since before the Pats entered the NFL. Possible replacement with similar characteristics? Arguably (son Jonathan.)

- Bill Belilchick, age 58. Longevity (high side): 20 years (ask father Steve Belichick, long-time assistant coach at Navy.) Found world-beating success at New England. We like to believe he'll coach here forever, for obvious reasons.

- Tom Brady, age 33. Longevity: 5-8 years. Has never played for another NFL team. Shows all signs of wanting to retire a Patriot. A "Montana in KC" scenario is always possible, but he looks in it for the long haul.

Obviously, the best 5-8 year scenario, and the most likely one, is that these three continue to work together in NE.

Then what? We hope we will at least have BB and Kraft together.

2008 showed that a BB-coached team (enabled by Kraft, who had the insight to trade away Curtis Martin to get the real brains in the Parcells/Bellichick brain trust) can win 11 games without Brady (though with a Moss at closer to the top of his game.)

2010 has shown just how unimportant that vertical threat can be when all else is going fairly well (thus far.)

Is it reasonable to think that winning without Brady can be as regular as winning with Brady has been?

Can another Cassel be rounded up, assuming Cassel's 2010 work is indicative of his future baseline, and not an outlier?

Granted this is a very "cross your fingers and hope" thread. We've seen how adroitly BB can handle "rebuilding." Dare we hope that NE's "window" is the length of Belichick's career, not Brady's?

In other words, after the 5 Lombardis we'll win between Super Bowls XLV and L, what does the future hold?

Just getting ahead of the next plausible wave of "The Patriots are done" threads from GangGreen.

 

[Willie55]

2008 showed that a BB-coached team (enabled by Kraft, who had the insight to trade away Curtis Martin to get the real brains in the Parcells/Bellichick brain trust) can win 11 games without Brady (though with a Moss at closer to the top of his game.)

Great post but Martin wasn't traded, he was a restricted free agent. Parcells signed him to a contract that the Pats could never hope to match. Belichick came to the Pats a couple years later.

As for the idea of your original post, I think as long as the organization is sound this team will continue to win, much like the Steelers. The Rooneys have always been there, different pieces come and go, but they are always competitive.

 

[livinginthe past]

On the cusp on yet another Belichick/Brady inspired playoff adventure - and people want to dwell on when its all going to end?

Save this sh*t until the season is done, for the love of god.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

Wahhh. If you can live in the past, I can live in the future. At present, here, it's 9:55 a.m., and the game's a while off yet.

Turn off your own mind, don't worry about mine.

And now back to our regularly scheduled program.

(oh yeah, & to the previous poster - mea culpa on the Martin/Parcells/Belichick chronology... main point remains: how many of us thought Belichick was the savior Kraft saw?)

 

[Potstickas]

how many of us thought Belichick was the savior Kraft saw?)

I don't think even Kraft saw or even imagined what was about to happen. :rocker:

 

[CheeseMonkeys]

Can another Cassel be rounded up, assuming Cassel's 2010 work is indicative of his future baseline, and not an outlier?

I'd just like to say that it may be a good thing for Tom's reputation that Cassel seems to be turning into a good player. Too many people are saying that Brady's success is a product of BB and the Patriots system. Then they claim that Cassel is proof after he replaced Tom in 2008 and had such a great season. Well check it out, Cassel is have success over in Kansas city too.

 

[rgp88]

I think that with Belichick, w/o Brady we can still be competitive (kind of like we saw in 2008) Belichick is the master of getting the most out of players, and he just may be able to develop another great QB. We probably won't win 12+ games every season, as has become sort of a norm around here...but good, entertaining, competitive football is all that any fan really has a right to ask for.

With Brady, w/o Belichick I am less confident, but still optimistic.

I love what Kraft has done for this team, and he was obviously an integral part of turning this team around, but at this point it seems to me that his main duty is just to facilitate the needs of Belichick.

 

[rgp88]

I'd just like to say that it may be a good thing for Tom's reputation that Cassel seems to be turning into a good player. Too many people are saying that Brady's success is a product of BB and the Patriots system. Then they claim that Cassel is proof after he replaced Tom in 2008 and had such a great season. Well check it out, Cassel is have success over in Kansas city too.

I have heard more people (jets fans in particular) say they opposite... that BB's success is a result of him "stumbling upon" brady. They point to his early days with cleveland as "proof". I think as pats fans we rightly recognize (or blindly assume?) that we are extremely lucky and fortunate enough to have the two best at both individual positions, and that is the reason we are so successful.

 

[Serafino07]

Although this is a theoretical post, the truth is that it will become a reality sooner or later. As we all know, change can happen instantly in the NFL and in life so maybe we can acknowledge how lucky we are now to have the Brady/BB/Kraft combination. Let's enjoy it while it lasts. With that having been said, I would think the most important cog moving forward is ownership. Having a healthy and driven Bob Kraft will make this team a force to be reckoned with year in and year out. Obviously, our QB and coach are doing great right now but they can be replaced with others. An owner who cares and who is invested in winning every year cannot be replaced.

 

[DarrylS]

What is happening is something that Mr. Kraft intened, although probably never conceived that it would be this successful, an excellent NFL business model.. based on sound economic theory; Do not overspend in bright shiny beads, always have assets available for future planning, do not fall in love with the vets.. scour the countryside for the next UDFA and develop a system that if someone goes down the replacement plays up to the expectation of the injured player..

Sounds so simple, but not too many teams can replicate it.. pretty confident that after BB, after TB and after Mr. Kraft.. Jonathan & family will intend to replicate what is going on here.

 

[wizwor]

This is not about the individuals. Robert Kraft is the face of ownership, but Jonathon and other principals would no doubt run the Patriots business in a similar manner. In fact, I believe Jonathon is already very influential.

TFB is a cog in the Patriots machine. He is a great QB, but not the only great QB. I think his retirement will be a smooth transition to the next Great Patriots QB. No disrespect to Brady the GOAT. I just think that BB will select and groom another tooled QB to carry the torch.

BB is the key component here. He is special and impossible to replace. Watching what happens to players coming and going and coaches that venture outside, it's clear that Coach is the reason for the success of the team. He has had the vision to select the right players, craft the right plans, and make the right calls. Everyone knows this and that makes the Patriots an attractive destination for Winners.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

I like the idea of Jonathan taking over for Robert. I mean he's already a huge part of this organization, has been around it just as long as Robert, and handles a lot of the responsibilities already. It makes a ton of sense.

I don't think BB's going to be around for 20 years on the high side. I'd be surprised if he made it another 10. This isn't college football where you can pull a 9 to 5 and just recruit better talent. It's 60 hour weeks, and it'll take it's toll on a guy in his 60s.

I think the ideal succession plan would be for BB to coach until he can't handle it, and then take on the GM responsibilities solely or be a consultant. I'd prefer GM, as he has done a great job with talent evaluation. In that scenario, a guy like Josh McDaniels could be a likely successor. Josh comes from the program, BB respects him and taught him everything he knows, and BB would take care of personnel, Josh's glaring weakness. And Josh could help with the last part, QB.

First off, we'd have to accept that this probably won't be Steve Young following Joe Montana. The next guy to follow TFB could be an All Pro and still look awful by comparison. But in our system, with the right guy, it would be okay. I trust in BB to pick that guy, and a guy like Josh could coach him up. Heck, he made Kyle Orton into a starting QB. The offense would probably shift a bit, and maybe we target a better running back to carry some of that burden.

It wouldn't be as great as BB and TFB, but it could do quite well. Still, this is a once-in-a-lifetime combo. Enjoy every last day of it before it's gone.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

If you think about it, the ******ed "Brady is a system QB" argument has a hell of a silver lining. Those who say this don't understand the obvious implication: We will continue to kick their asses after Brady departs.

Of course, most Pats fans are also big Brady fans, and see the interaction as more of a gestalt thing. Not only won't Brady, personally, ever be our salvation after 5-8 years from now, neither will Cassel.

A Jets fan pointing to the success of Cassel as proof that Brady isn't all he's cracked up to be at this point is just silly. Why would Cassel be successful in KC, if he and Brady are both products of a system (under which Cassel no longer plays?)

QB is unlikely to ever again be at this high a level - but we can hope the Jesters are part-right; that a good QB will look great in NE, and an average QB will look good, all based on scheme, coaching, and discipline.

Coaching - I am one who feels this is a lynchpin.

Ownership - I agree w/Darryl that it's huge, but can't go all the way to Serafin's idea that Kraft will find the right pieces regardless of BB and TFB's departures. An involved owner and long-time fan also took over the Redskins. He cares so much he's gone through about half a dozen coaches in the last 10 years, looking for his Belichick. Of course we've never seen Snyderesque behavior from Kraft; but what's impressed me of Kraft are these two things:

1) He had an eye for exactly the kind of coach he wanted, and
2) Thank God, he understands he needs that field general to handle the football side of the team. That's what Snyder doesn't get.

But in that (2) is a Kraftian virtue, we have to think that can cement a franchise's status in the presence of the high-level coach. But it will be a huge point of concern for me when BB hangs up the clipboard, or God forbid, moves on.

Oddly, with the rest of this team in place, Brady hanging 'em up does not seem like the "end" to me, though it will be the end of an era.

PFnV

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Focusing on the much shorter Brady productivity timeline it is imperative that Bob Kraft insinuate himself into a power position in the NFL contract with the players and ensure that there is NO lockout in 2011. Losing another year of the few prime Brady years left would be a tragedy.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

From what I've seen, Kraft is the single most influential owner in these negotiations, albeit a first among equals. It seems that the Pats are to the CBA what the Colts are to the competition committee.

 

[jmt57]

I don't think even Kraft saw or even imagined what was about to happen. :rocker:

True, but I think he saw it 100x more than any of the rest of us did.

I think back to Halberstam's Education of a Coach, and I recall Kraft and Belichick discussing and agreeing on philosophies on how to build a winning football organization given the constraints of the salary cap, as well as free agency. This was when Parcells was the head coach, but because of the way that ended Kraft was hesitant to go with a 'Parcells guy' as the replacement and Pete Carroll became the head coach instead.

I don't know if Kraft or Belichick honestly envisioned the amount of success the Patriots would have over these past ten years, but it's not something entirely out of the blue either. When you get an owner and the guy running the football side of the business in sync with their ideas and philosophies on how to succeed you are bound to win. Organizations that don't share the same vision or the same plan are the ones that stay mired in mediocrity.

 

[nashvillepatsfan]

BB is the part of this trio that will be hard to replace. Although I liked Cassell, I think Hoyer is better, and will continue to improve. So we might already have a replacement for Brady when the time comes. However, Hoyer will probably be gone to start on another team by the time Brady retires. So Bradys replacement might not even be out of high school yet
Either way, Bill makes it all happen...imho

 

[Fencer]

Kraft isn't important at this point. Any owner smart enough not to meddle but rather to enjoy the ride would be fine.

 

[DarrylS]

True, but I think he saw it 100x more than any of the rest of us did.

I think back to Halberstam's Education of a Coach, and I recall Kraft and Belichick discussing and agreeing on philosophies on how to build a winning football organization given the constraints of the salary cap, as well as free agency. This was when Parcells was the head coach, but because of the way that ended Kraft was hesitant to go with a 'Parcells guy' as the replacement and Pete Carroll became the head coach instead.

I don't know if Kraft or Belichick honestly envisioned the amount of success the Patriots would have over these past ten years, but it's not something entirely out of the blue either. When you get an owner and the guy running the football side of the business in sync with their ideas and philosophies on how to succeed you are bound to win. Organizations that don't share the same vision or the same plan are the ones that stay mired in mediocrity.

Well said too often there are owners who do not trust the operations people to make good decisions, and there are coaches who are forced to accept the decisions of the FO people.. this model where there are essentially two compllimentary parts, is far superior to a three part system that vies for power and control..

This system is a model of efficiency and economy.. that is one of the reasons it works so well....

 

[convertedpatsfan]

Kraft isn't important at this point. Any owner smart enough not to meddle but rather to enjoy the ride would be fine.

I think it takes a lot for an owner to stay out of the way, and it's not as easy as it sounds. I wasn't a fan back when he first bought the team, but from what I've read, it seems he did get involved a bit more at the start, but has learned to hand things off and trust those decisions to others.

And let's face it, BB makes a lot of unpopular decisions. Correct or not, it still takes a special relationship with ownership to allow BB to constantly monitor the future as well as the present and develop a successfully sustainable team. I think Kraft is a definite upgrade over most other owners.