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The wild card race in detail...

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by TheGodInAGreyHoodie, Dec 20, 2008.

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  1. TheGodInAGreyHoodie

    TheGodInAGreyHoodie Rookie

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    AFC Wild card race:

    Ravens vs. Dolphins.


    If the Dolphins are 11-5, they are not in the wild card race they won the division.

    If both are 10-6 Ravens win out, based on head to head.

    That would also be true if both were 9-7.



    Ravens vs Jets.


    If the Jets are 11-5, they are not in the wild card race they won the division.

    If both are 10-6:

    Jets loss is to Dolphins and Ravens loss is cowboys = Ravens win on conf record
    Jets loss is to Sea and Ravens loss is to Jax = Jets win on conf record
    other two situations - it goes to the Strength of victory tie breaker.

    If both are 9-7 SOV.

    Ravens vs Patriots.


    If both are 11-5 - Ravens win
    If both are 10-6 and Pats loss is Bills and/or the Raven's loss is cowboys - Ravens win
    If both are 10-6 and Pats loss is AZ, Ravens loss is Jax - it goes to SoV which the Raves currently lead - 55-72-3 (0.423) to 53-77 (0.408)
    If both are 9-7 Ravens win.

    Dolphins vs Jest

    Would have to be 10-6. Winner of week 17.

    Dolphins vs NE.

    If the Dolphins are 11-5, they are not in the wild card race they won the division.

    If both are 10-6 and Mia beat the Jets, Mia not in wild card race they won the division.

    If both are 10-6 and NE beat the Bill, NE wins
    If both are 10-6 and NE beat AZ, goes to SOV tie breaker which Dolphins were winning a week ago, but I have not recalculated since.

    If both are 9-7 - Ravens have the wild card spot

    New Jersey vs NE

    If the Jets are 11-5, they are not in the wild card race they won the division.

    If both are 10-6 and Jets beat the Mia, Jets not in wild card race they won the division.

    If both are 10-6 and NE beat the Bill, NE on common games
    If both are 10-6 and NE beat AZ, Jets on division record

    If both are 9-7, Jets on division record.
    Last edited: Dec 20, 2008
  2. JSn

    JSn Rookie

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    Re: The wild card race in detail.....

    Confusing stuff, I'll settle for being a game ahead of everyone tomorrow night, ok?
  3. TheGodInAGreyHoodie

    TheGodInAGreyHoodie Rookie

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    Re: The wild card race in detail.....

    works for me.
  4. ausbacker

    ausbacker Brady > Manning. PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #51 Jersey

    Re: The wild card race in detail.....

    TGGIAH are you on a mission to post on subjects that have been explained in detail countless times on the board already?

    Not that it isn't appreciated, more it creates un-needed clutter.
  5. TheGodInAGreyHoodie

    TheGodInAGreyHoodie Rookie

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    Re: The wild card race in detail.....

    I knew the division race was posted. I don't recall a thread explaining Jets vs. Dolphins vs Ravens for the wildcard.
  6. PatsWickedPissah

    PatsWickedPissah PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Disable Jersey

    Re: The wild card race in detail.....

    Wins The Most Confusing Analysis of the Race

    Simplified...

    Assuming we win out...
    Ravens lose tonite. we're guaranteed the WC at worst

    Jets AND Mia each lose one

    We win AFCE
    Last edited: Dec 20, 2008
  7. PATRIOTSFANINPA

    PATRIOTSFANINPA Rookie

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    Re: The wild card race in detail.....

    By late sunday evening, the wild card playoff race possibilities
    will be told in 1 sentence
  8. TheGodInAGreyHoodie

    TheGodInAGreyHoodie Rookie

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    Re: The wild card race in detail.....

    this is true.
  9. PatsFanSince74

    PatsFanSince74 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    That's pretty complicated. All i know is:

    We win out and the Ravens lose a game, we get the second Wild Card

    We win out and the Jets and Fins each lose a game, we win the Division

    We win out and the Jets and Fins each win this week but tie next Sunday, we win the Division.
  10. alamo

    alamo praedica numerum! PatsFans.com Supporter

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    The original post does duplicate some other threads, but is more complete. Way too many analyses (including most others in this thread) are simplified and therefore not completely accurate (even if they are much more likely to actually occur).

    One minor error I see: you list the Ravens current strength of victory percentage incorrectly as 0.423. A record of 55-72-3 has an actual percentage of 0.433. You completely disregard ties when calculating winning percentage, you are counting them as if they are losses.
    Last edited: Dec 20, 2008
  11. TheGodInAGreyHoodie

    TheGodInAGreyHoodie Rookie

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    You don't completely disregard them. You treat them as half a win and half a loss---and my spreadsheet didn't do it -- the actual % is .435.
  12. PatsFan2

    PatsFan2 Rookie

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    Move this thread to another forum...Pats WC hopes just died with Ravens win Tonight.:mad:
    • Like Like x 1
  13. neuronet

    neuronet Rookie

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    #87 Jersey

    THanks a lot, God in Grey. Very useful stuff to cut through all the crap, doing the thinking for us and giving us the lowdown. I've printed it out.

    Too bad the bloody Ravens looked so good tonight.

    For those that don't like the complications, shut the F up and move on. To the homer that said this has been posted before, shut up and move on you are wrong.
  14. TheGodInAGreyHoodie

    TheGodInAGreyHoodie Rookie

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    No it didn't, a loss to Jax and we can get a wildcard spot.
  15. neuronet

    neuronet Rookie

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    #87 Jersey

    People are much too pessimistic here!

    If we go 11-5, we will make the playoffs. Mark my words.
  16. IcyPatriot

    IcyPatriot ------------- PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #87 Jersey

    Tony Romo ... Tony Homo ... Tony Nogo ... :confused2:

    Thank the football gods and Belichick/Pioli for Matt Cassel.

    If we had Tony Nogo we'd have many fans on Valium.
  17. jmt57

    jmt57 Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    As disappointing as it was to see Baltimore beat Dallas, remember that the Pats cannot be eliminated Sunday. Far stranger things have happened in NFl history than the Jags beating the Ravens, or Seahawks beating the Jets, or Chiefs beating the Dolphins.
  18. TheGodInAGreyHoodie

    TheGodInAGreyHoodie Rookie

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    Yeah they can, if they lose.
  19. JSn

    JSn Rookie

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    [​IMG]
  20. Horace's Ivories

    Horace's Ivories PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    agreed! jets and fins will lose today..
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