The wild card race in detail...

[TheGodInAGreyHoodie]

AFC Wild card race:

Ravens vs. Dolphins.

If the Dolphins are 11-5, they are not in the wild card race they won the division.

If both are 10-6 Ravens win out, based on head to head.

That would also be true if both were 9-7.



Ravens vs Jets.

If the Jets are 11-5, they are not in the wild card race they won the division.

If both are 10-6:

Jets loss is to Dolphins and Ravens loss is cowboys = Ravens win on conf record
Jets loss is to Sea and Ravens loss is to Jax = Jets win on conf record
other two situations - it goes to the Strength of victory tie breaker.

If both are 9-7 SOV.

Ravens vs Patriots.

If both are 11-5 - Ravens win
If both are 10-6 and Pats loss is Bills and/or the Raven's loss is cowboys - Ravens win
If both are 10-6 and Pats loss is AZ, Ravens loss is Jax - it goes to SoV which the Raves currently lead - 55-72-3 (0.423) to 53-77 (0.408)
If both are 9-7 Ravens win.

Dolphins vs Jest

Would have to be 10-6. Winner of week 17.

Dolphins vs NE.

If the Dolphins are 11-5, they are not in the wild card race they won the division.

If both are 10-6 and Mia beat the Jets, Mia not in wild card race they won the division.

If both are 10-6 and NE beat the Bill, NE wins
If both are 10-6 and NE beat AZ, goes to SOV tie breaker which Dolphins were winning a week ago, but I have not recalculated since.

If both are 9-7 - Ravens have the wild card spot

New Jersey vs NE

If the Jets are 11-5, they are not in the wild card race they won the division.

If both are 10-6 and Jets beat the Mia, Jets not in wild card race they won the division.

If both are 10-6 and NE beat the Bill, NE on common games
If both are 10-6 and NE beat AZ, Jets on division record

If both are 9-7, Jets on division record.

 

[JSn]

Re: The wild card race in detail.....

Confusing stuff, I'll settle for being a game ahead of everyone tomorrow night, ok?

 

[TheGodInAGreyHoodie]

Re: The wild card race in detail.....

Confusing stuff, I'll settle for being a game ahead of everyone tomorrow night, ok?

works for me.

 

[ausbacker]

Re: The wild card race in detail.....

TGGIAH are you on a mission to post on subjects that have been explained in detail countless times on the board already?

Not that it isn't appreciated, more it creates un-needed clutter.

 

[TheGodInAGreyHoodie]

Re: The wild card race in detail.....

TGGIAH are you on a mission to post on subjects that have been explained in detail countless times on the board already?

Not that it isn't appreciated, more it creates un-needed clutter.

I knew the division race was posted. I don't recall a thread explaining Jets vs. Dolphins vs Ravens for the wildcard.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Re: The wild card race in detail.....

Wins The Most Confusing Analysis of the Race

Simplified...

Assuming we win out...
Ravens lose tonite. we're guaranteed the WC at worst

Jets AND Mia each lose one

We win AFCE

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

Re: The wild card race in detail.....

By late sunday evening, the wild card playoff race possibilities
will be told in 1 sentence

 

[TheGodInAGreyHoodie]

Re: The wild card race in detail.....

By late sunday evening, the wild card playoff race possibilities
will be told in 1 sentence

this is true.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

That's pretty complicated. All i know is:

We win out and the Ravens lose a game, we get the second Wild Card

We win out and the Jets and Fins each lose a game, we win the Division

We win out and the Jets and Fins each win this week but tie next Sunday, we win the Division.

 

[alamo]

The original post does duplicate some other threads, but is more complete. Way too many analyses (including most others in this thread) are simplified and therefore not completely accurate (even if they are much more likely to actually occur).

One minor error I see: you list the Ravens current strength of victory percentage incorrectly as 0.423. A record of 55-72-3 has an actual percentage of 0.433. You completely disregard ties when calculating winning percentage, you are counting them as if they are losses.

 

[TheGodInAGreyHoodie]

The original post does duplicate some other threads, but is more complete. Way too many analyses (including most others in this thread) are simplified and therefore not completely accurate (even if they are much more likely to actually occur).

One minor error I see: you list the Ravens current strength of victory percentage incorrectly as 0.423. A record of 55-72-3 has an actual percentage of 0.433. You completely disregard ties when calculating winning percentage, you are counting them as if they are losses.

You don't completely disregard them. You treat them as half a win and half a loss---and my spreadsheet didn't do it -- the actual % is .435.

 

[PatsFan2]

Move this thread to another forum...Pats WC hopes just died with Ravens win Tonight.

 

[neuronet]

THanks a lot, God in Grey. Very useful stuff to cut through all the crap, doing the thinking for us and giving us the lowdown. I've printed it out.

Too bad the bloody Ravens looked so good tonight.

For those that don't like the complications, shut the F up and move on. To the homer that said this has been posted before, shut up and move on you are wrong.

 

[TheGodInAGreyHoodie]

Move this thread to another forum...Pats WC hopes just died with Ravens win Tonight.

No it didn't, a loss to Jax and we can get a wildcard spot.

 

[neuronet]

People are much too pessimistic here!

If we go 11-5, we will make the playoffs. Mark my words.

 

[IcyPatriot]

Tony Romo ... Tony Homo ... Tony Nogo ... :confused2:

Thank the football gods and Belichick/Pioli for Matt Cassel.

If we had Tony Nogo we'd have many fans on Valium.

 

[jmt57]

As disappointing as it was to see Baltimore beat Dallas, remember that the Pats cannot be eliminated Sunday. Far stranger things have happened in NFl history than the Jags beating the Ravens, or Seahawks beating the Jets, or Chiefs beating the Dolphins.

 

[TheGodInAGreyHoodie]

As disappointing as it was to see Baltimore beat Dallas, remember that the Pats cannot be eliminated Sunday. Far stranger things have happened in NFl history than the Jags beating the Ravens, or Seahawks beating the Jets, or Chiefs beating the Dolphins.

Yeah they can, if they lose.

 

[JSn]

Yeah they can, if they lose.

 

[Horace's Ivories]

People are much too pessimistic here!

If we go 11-5, we will make the playoffs. Mark my words.

agreed! jets and fins will lose today..