The weapon to take away from Aaron Rodgers

[pencilneckgeek]

BB will probably have different DEF Schemes having Revis on Nelson then switching at times to Cobb showing different looks at line then shifting. Without lookin it up, I believe this is first time Rodgers will be facing a BB Defense with Pats and might be a rare time that Rodgers throws a couple of Picks and might be using his legs alot when coverage is lockin up his options. Have to account for him runnin out of pocket.

I think accounting for Roger's scrambling will be job #2a, with 2b being Lacy. This suggests a mix of zone and front 7 discipline, but I can certainly see Revis on Nelson, as that frees everyone else up to worry about the run and Cobb.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

I think accounting for Roger's scrambling will be job #2a, with 2b being Lacy. This suggests a mix of zone and front 7 discipline, but I can certainly see Revis on Nelson, as that frees everyone else up to worry about the run and Cobb.

Ya rodgers ability to move like luck scares me as well

 

[PatsFanSince74]

I'll ask this again. Do you really think that it's that easy to take away Nelson, and Cobb, and Lacy? Do you really think other teams haven't tried?

How are you going to accomplish all 3? Are the Pats going to give safety help on Nelson and try to stack the box against Lacy? If they do they'll leave certain parts of the field wide open for a TE or another WR. And what about pressure on Rodgers? Opinion has it that if you give Rodgers too much time to throw he'll kill you. Do you think that a 4-man rush is going to do the trick or will the Pats have to blitz to get to him?

Turn it around and say, for instance, the Packer defense is going to take away Gronk by doubling him, stack the box to slow down the Pats running game, and shadow Edelman or LaFell. Well, how they going to do all 3 of those things successfully? Would Brady and the Pats offense have no response, no options? Of course they would. The same is true of Rodgers and the Packers.

Nelson and Cobb are great receivers for a reason, and I don't think any one of us can really say who's going to win the individual battles come Sunday. And that's what it may come down to.

Good points all. Both teams have QB's and Receivers who can get at it all day.

I think the game comes down to three things.

Whether the Packers can stop Blount and Gray pounding the line and Vereen on high percentage screens that take a timed 1.5 seconds for Brady to get off. We all know that Brady is going to hit Gronk and Edelman when he has to, but the difference in the game will be whether they can keep Rodgers off the field with running plays. The salary cap means every team has weaknesses; for the Packers, it's their run defense, 30 out of 32 last time I checked on ESPN

Whether the Pats can stop Lacy enough to be able to play off the line and make things just a little more difficult for Jordy and Cobb, whom Rodgers can and will hit when he has to. This is where they'll really miss Mayo. If Lacy gets 25 touches and averages over three yards a pop, it could be a long afternoon for the Pats. Remember, the Pack will want to keep Brady off the field as much as the Pats will want to keep Rodgers off the field. Rodgers, Nelson and Cobb are gonna do damage; the only question is whether Revis and Browner can limit it just enough.

But the biggest factor, IMO, will be takeaways. These are the two best teams in the nfl when it comes to takeaway ratios. You can't give Brady or Rodgers extra possessions. One extra possession would likely decide the game.

Finally, for once the weather won't be an advantage for the Packers at Lambeau in November/December. I just checked the forecast for Sunday and the temp will be in the upper 20's with limited wind on Sunday. That's a balmy, spring day in Foxboro. Like the Packers, the Pats would prefer a little sleet and snow mixed in...what Tedy Bruschi used to call "Patriots Weather."

Should be a great game. My bottom line is that the team that wins the takeaway battle will win the game.

 

[Ivan]

Nelson reminds me of a faster Ed McCaffrey. That said, I think Browner with a safety over the top can handle him. Browner has covered him before and did a respectable job. Revis needs to be on Cobb.

This. ultimately they have to limit pretty much everything with Rodgers at QB. Unlike Manning he will not get overanxious if they allow them to run and he will let lacy pile up yards and control the game, so they have to keep lacy in Check on first down, limit the WR's YAC, and keep Rodgers from getting firsts with his feet. This is as tough a match for their defense as they will see all year, if they pass it they are ready for the post season.

 

[Haley]

It seems to me the key is to stop Lacy. If you shut down the run, Rodgers has to pass more into our secondary and each pass is an opportunity for a takeaway. Plus, Lacy is who keeps Brady off the field. Since we already know we are going to run quite a bit, there won't be many possessions for either team if we can't stop Lacy.

I remember the last time we played vs Flynn at Lambeau. There were a lot of trick plays, particularly on special teams. McCarthy played like a cornered animal against us. He took a lot of risks, some of which panned out. I hope we are ready for some tricks and traps this time.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

This. ultimately they have to limit pretty much everything with Rodgers at QB. Unlike Manning he will not get overanxious if they allow them to run and he will let lacy pile up yards and control the game, so they have to keep lacy in Check on first down, limit the WR's YAC, and keep Rodgers from getting firsts with his feet. This is as tough a match for their defense as they will see all year, if they pass it they are ready for the post season.

Yeah, that's a big factor I left out in my comment right above. Rodgers is patient and mobile; Peyton is not. The Pats are, I think, going to have to have Collins or somebody stay at home on him every play. And they're going to have to hit Nelson and Cobb at the line before they start their routes...sort of like SB XXXVI.

 

[mayoclinic]

But the biggest factor, IMO, will be takeaways. These are the two best teams in the nfl when it comes to takeaway ratios. You can't give Brady or Rodgers extra possessions. One extra possession would likely decide the game.

This will be key. The Packers remind me of the 2010 Pats. They are winning based on Rodgers playing mistake-free (30 TDs, 3 INT) and an opportunistic defense that isn't very good but which makes turnovers. Limit those 2 things just a bit and they will struggle.

 

[jays52]

They'll do what the BB defenses always do when they face good offenses. They're going to cover in the back (mixing Revis and Browner on Nelson and Revis on Cobb, safety help to Browner over the top), disrupt the timing of the offense, and disguise where the rush is coming from. I sense a zone blitz heavy game coming as well.

 

[mayoclinic]

They'll do what the BB defenses always do when they face good offenses. They're going to cover in the back (mixing Revis and Browner on Nelson and Revis on Cobb, safety help to Browner over the top), disrupt the timing of the offense, and disguise where the rush is coming from. I sense a zone blitz heavy game coming as well.

I think they'll also show a lot of man coverage and mix in some post-snap zone to confuse Rodgers. I wouldn't be surprised if they have a 'spy' on Rodgers at all times, and if they drop a robber down from time to time.

Disrupting Rodgers' timing and keeping contain on him is more important than pure pressure, IMO. I expect the Pats will be watching a lot of film of Seattle's week 1 game against GB for ideas.

 

[BHSL2]

Disrupting Rodgers' timing and keeping contain on him is more important than pure pressure, IMO. I expect the Pats will be watching a lot of film of Seattle's week 1 game against GB for ideas.

Good call. Also, Rodgers really hasn't been up against a coach who will try to confuse and scheme him like BB.

 

[Deus Irae]

For several years, Green Bay and New Orleans had offenses stacked with weapons in a way the Patriots haven't had since 2007. Three and four deep at WR, with 1-2 legit receiving TEs, and at least the ability to use the RBs in the passing game made both teams very difficult to shut down. Today, both NO and GB are much more limited, due to personnel loss. NO is a shadow of its former self, and GB is now essentially a 2WR/1RB offense, with Quarles and Adams being afterthoughts. Now, Rodgers has to actually work to make plays like Brady has for most of his career.

I look for BB to have Revis and Arrington with most of the coverage on Cobb, while Browner covers Nelson with help over the top. This is the kind of game where we could see less of Chung, as I think we could see more 2 deep coverage with the safeties, leaving the front 7 to deal with Lacey, who's not the Sproles/Spiller type that gives the Patriots trouble in space.

Collins on Quarles
Revis on Cobb/Adams, unless Nelson is too much for the Browner/S duo
Arrington on Cobb/Adams
Browner underneath on Nelson
McCourty over the top on Nelson

 

[mosi]

Good call. Also, Rodgers really hasn't been up against a coach who will try to confuse and scheme him like BB.

The Pats should do what Seattle did. Stuff the run and cover. Play it simple. The Pats now actually have the players to play like this.

 

[pencilneckgeek]

It seems to me the key is to stop Lacy. If you shut down the run, Rodgers has to pass more into our secondary and each pass is an opportunity for a takeaway. Plus, Lacy is who keeps Brady off the field. Since we already know we are going to run quite a bit, there won't be many possessions for either team if we can't stop Lacy.

I won't call it the key, but it's certainly one of them. Lacy's ability to get yards after contact could spell trouble for the smaller front even with the fixed run fits since week 5. Solid tackling will be key. Where Luck was facing 3rd and 6 all day, Rogers could be in 3rd and 3, simply based on Lacy's power. Chung does a good job of wrapping-up when the runner is tied-up with the big guys, but if Lacy has a head of steam, Chung will likely be wrapping-up on his back. I'm assuming that BB matches-up in the nickel initially, but Casillas and Collins aren't likely to be dropping Lacy in his tracks either.

 

[Froob]

I think it's a fair assessment that the Pats' secondary matches up better against GB than do many other top teams. I am not quite as sold on the Pats pass rush. Putting pressure on Rodgers may be an issue and Pats DC may have to make some adjustments. Packer OL has done pretty well of late protecting Rodgers.

The same is also true on the Pats side. Protection for Brady over the last bunch of games has been pretty darn good.

I used to live in NE a while ago and still like to follow the Pats. Sadly, it was before the day of TFB. I got to watch the Bears beat up on the Pats at the '85 SB. booooooooo! Which is why every time the Bears implode I love it. I fit in very well up in Packer land.

Thanks for your input, curious to know you feel about the Packs defense? I see this as a repeat of the Colts game. I expect Blount and Gray to have a field day with Clay looking silly like Polamalu does everytime we play the Steelers.

 

[mayoclinic]

Thanks for your input, curious to know you feel about the Packs defense? I see this as a repeat of the Colts game. I expect Blount and Gray to have a field day with Clay looking silly like Polamalu does everytime we play the Steelers.

I'm not the one to whom you addressed the question, but my take is that the GB defense can be summed up in one way: turnovers. They are like the 2010 Pats' D in that regard. Limit the turnovers, and it will be one-sided. If they make a bunch of them, it will be ugly for us.

 

[mosi]

I won't call it the key, but it's certainly one of them. Lacy's ability to get yards after contact could spell trouble for the smaller front even with the fixed run fits since week 5. Solid tackling will be key. Where Luck was facing 3rd and 6 all day, Rogers could be in 3rd and 3, simply based on Lacy's power. Chung does a good job of wrapping-up when the runner is tied-up with the big guys, but if Lacy has a head of steam, Chung will likely be wrapping-up on his back. I'm assuming that BB matches-up in the nickel initially, but Casillas and Collins aren't likely to be dropping Lacy in his tracks either.

If you look at the games in which the Pack have either lost or struggled, the run game has been poor. Keep them as a team (this includes Rogers) to less than 100 yards and the game changes. I don't think there is another team in the league that can do what the Pats do. They can completely abandon one aspect of the game (rush) and still kill you.

 

[ExpatPack]

Thanks for your input, curious to know you feel about the Packs defense? I see this as a repeat of the Colts game. I expect Blount and Gray to have a field day with Clay looking silly like Polamalu does everytime we play the Steelers.

Packer defense improved when Clay Matthews was moved inside a few games ago. Before that their run defense was just awful.

The way I see the Packer defense:

Safeties: Huge improvement over last season with the addition of rookie Ha-ha Clinton-Dix. He and Burnett make a good duo.

CBs: Tramon Williams, Sam Shields, Casey Hayward make up a quite good CB group. None of them are Revis, and the combination of Revis and Browner is hard to beat, but they are good. Had some communication problems which resulted in blown coverages against Minnesota.

OLBs: Peppers and Perry have been solid, with Mike Neal subbing in. Perry has been out for a couple of weeks now with a shoulder, and that's not good for GB, because it was Perry that allowed them to move Matthews inside.

ILBs: Hawk and Jones/whoever. Just frickin' awful. The Packers are probably one athletic, fast, hard-hitting ILB away from being the best team in the NFL. Moving Matthews inside produced instant results. He was much more productive, bolstering the run defense, and he was still able to rush from the outside on 3rd-down passing situations and on some blitzes.

DL: Ok, nothing great. Mike Daniels has been good. Loss of BJ Raji in TC hurt a lot. Letry Guion and Pennel have filled in a done a respectable job. Datone Jones was supposed to be our Chandler Jones, but he's been a disappointment so far. He's shown flashes, but has also been hobbled by ankle injuries.

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With Peppers the pass rush is better. Can't just block Clay anymore. Secondary is solid, but the front 7 is not consistent enough week in and week out. Defense does rely on turnovers, and they do seem to generate a fair number of opportunities since they can get pressure on the QB.

There's also been an ongoing debate for the las 3 seasons whether the defensive woes have been due to lack of talent or Dom Capers' schemes. Jury is still out, but if the Packer defense is the reason why they don't go far into the playoffs this year, and get blown out again by someone like the Giants, the Niners or the Pats, the patience with Capers may end.