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The Value of the Lost 1st Round Pick

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by mykl, Sep 14, 2007.

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  1. mykl

    mykl On the Roster

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    There is disagreement about whether the league's penalty of a lost 1st round draft pick is too harsh or too lienant. I think it's fair. Think about your position with the following.

    The link below is to a very interesting article from folks at Duke and the University of Chicago about the "value" of draft picks. It was written in 2005, but is very very relevant when thinking about the true cost of the penalty that has been levied against our Patriots.

    http://faculty.fuqua.duke.edu/~cadem/bio/massey & thaler - loser's curse.pdf

    As you can see in the attached graph, their conclusion is that the most value (where you get the best performance for the least amount of money/salary cap implications) is realized in picks 25-75...exactly where we assume the our first round pick would have been...and certainly where more than one of the picks that we would have inevitably traded the first rounder for would be.

    In more practical terms, think of anyone that the Pats have drafted in the late first round through early third round and then take them off our team. Some I'm sure we could live with (I'm talking to you, Chad Jackson), but others I'm sure we would be heartbroken about (think Matt Light, Logan Mankins, Ben Watson, etc). Plus throw in the possible trades for veteran players that we would have had the freedom to execute with an extra first rounder and you begin to see the real loss that the commish's penalty is.

    As I said, I think that the league's penalty was relatively fair, all things considered, as long as the league remains committed to punishing teams equitably in the future for the same infraction of having a camera on the field. Test case possibly coming from the possible Jets employee that has gotten so much attention on this board. The reason I think that the punishment is fair is because in my mind there really IS a difference between videotaping defensive signals and trying to steal them through binoculars. When looking through binoculars, you don't have the luxury of hitting rewind as many times as you want or playing the game in slow motion. At least there is still some skillful human element involved in this type of gamesmanship. The Falcons offical stated that he thought you might be able to correctly decipher maybe two extra plays correctly using video versus binolculars...but many games hinge on the success or failure of a few key plays. Even if they don't directly influence the score, momentum can swing or not. So this advantage, in some cases, might not just be minimal.

    I don't think that this takes away from ANYTHING that they Patriots have accomplished and I give them props for pushing the envelope in their pursuit of excellence. However, rules were broken that could have given the Pats an advantage. A serious infraction of a rule, backed up by indisputable evidence requires a serious punishment. This was a serious punishment without taking it too far.
     

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  2. simijet

    simijet Rookie

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    I'm a Jets fan who thought the penalty was too harsh. I believe a number 1 is a steep price to pay for this violation. I think a suspension of Belichick for a couple of games would have been more appropriate, but I do understand Goodell's intentions.
     
  3. PatsWorldChamps

    PatsWorldChamps Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

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    the worst penalty in nfl history is a loss of a 3rd, for an admitted salary cap scam by the broncos... they could have never won those SB's without that admitted cheating... so you decide... a 1st? lol (f'ing joke), or give elway the ring he NEVER could have won.
     
  4. unoriginal

    unoriginal In the Starting Line-Up

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    1st round picks are the lifeblood of franchises, especially now that contracts are reduced in length in subsequent rounds. This really hurts the Pats.

    Good post.
     
  5. DonBlackmon55

    DonBlackmon55 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    Look, they dinged us a #1. Life is cruel, sh*t happens, move on. Would we all like it back, no question. But for every Logan Mankins, there is a Chad Jackson.......its all a crapshoot

    We will survive, team will survive. I have faith in Pioli and BB abilities to draft well. We still have a SF #1 (likely 15-20 range), our #2, Raiders #3, and our #3. We have a Young core on Offense and great leadership on D.

    So, chill, and enjoy the 2007 season, as the Quest for #4 has begun
     
  6. DisgruntledTunaFan

    DisgruntledTunaFan In the Starting Line-Up

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    Without Norv Turner and Pep Hamilton, Alex Smith will fall back to earth-if anyting, both of these assistants there have a history of making wonders out of garbage.

    He didn't look all that good against AZ the other day-he got lucky with that last drive, and that is all.
     
  7. DonBlackmon55

    DonBlackmon55 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    Alex Smith is the re-incarnation of Joey Harrington. 49'ers will be lucky to win 8 games in that division with Rams, Hawks, Zona.

    so the pick could easily be 10-15. If so, our famous wheeler and dealer pair can easily swing that #1 into 2 late #1's and a future #2
     
  8. Pat the Pats Fan

    Pat the Pats Fan In the Starting Line-Up

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    #50 Jersey

    So our # 1 is lost.

    That means that every team moves up one slot? And the team with the 1st pick in the draft round 1 and round 2 would actually have the equivalent of 2 number 1s?
     
  9. Mack Herron

    Mack Herron In the Starting Line-Up

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    #24 Jersey

    first round pick is a statement made by the new commish. We'll see if he can really improve the image of the game. As for us, there is only one solution: win. Here is our adversity.
     
  10. ctpatsfan77

    ctpatsfan77 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #3 Jersey

    OTOH, the Pats are astute at picking out talent from the other end of the talent pool, too:

    Eric Alexander
    Randall Gay
    Matt Gutierrez
    Corey Mays
    Stephen Neal
    Lonie Paxton
    Santonio Thomas
    Pierre Woods
    Mike Wright

    Think about that for a second--out of the 53 players on the active roster, NINE of them were signed by the Pats as UDFAs. So, yes, losing the first hurts, but, in the grand scheme of things, I think it won't hurt quite as much as we fear.

    [Also, remember that that curve is an average, and not indicative of what any one pick will be.]
     
  11. Armen Da Pats Fan

    Armen Da Pats Fan 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    I think the reason Goodell made it a #1 was:

    a) for impact when it was reported in the media
    b) he knows the Pats have an additional #1 from San Fran, so losing this one, which is, in essence a high 2nd rounder, since we should be picking somewhere between 26 - 32, wouldn't hurt as much as losing the San Fran pick, which is probably going to be bwteen 8 -15.
     
  12. mykl

    mykl On the Roster

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    I completely agree that our team will survive. In fact it is going to just keep getting better and better, but the loss of a first rounder is absolutely a big deal. I would much rather have Logan Mankins AND Chad Jackson, than JUST Chad Jackson. If this hit us in a year where we DIDN'T have SF's #1 as well I think many people on this board would be singing a different tune about the severity of the punishment.

    Now I still think that the punishment was fair. While it is true that this is the harshest penatly that the league has handed down, you really can't compare the salary cap issue with Denver and this. Not because the offense was different, but because the times are different. It is a different commish (who has clearly decided to cast himself as the law and order type of guy) and almost a decade later. The league itself, and the entire sports world (think about all the sports scandals that have been going on...I'm thinking particularly NBA brawl here) are in a very different place now than they were ten years ago. In the legal world, precedent means a lot, but the law does have to change with the times.
     
  13. Robdude

    Robdude Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    #75 Jersey

    I think this is a harsh penalty to pay.

    With that said I believe our Pats have been managed so well in the past few years that this is not nearly as devistating as it would be to most other teams. I think I would go as far as saying we are the only team that can absorb the loss of a first round pick and still have the possibilty of still having the excellent draft. No other team can.

    After watching the 49ers scrape by the cardinals the other night I agree with other posters here. It was a great trade last draft and it is very possible that we will have a lot of ability for movement. I would not be surprised if we have a 2008 first round pick and 2 picks again in 2009
     
  14. WhiZa

    WhiZa Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    I totally agree with this. Since we have 2 #1s Goodell can take one of them away and appease both sides of the issue. 1) The harsh critics who wanted day one drafts picks (plus) and 2) the Patriots who won't complain as much because they have another pick.
     
  15. mykl

    mykl On the Roster

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    Except that I think Goodell knows that he is setting a precedent for the rest of his tenure as commish for offenses similar or worse than this one. Of course he needed to seem fair in the eyes of both sides, but I don't think he would do this just because we also had SF's #1.
     
  16. Jacky Roberts

    Jacky Roberts 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    Big deal. Somehow, someway, the Pats will end up with 2 first round picks in 2009 like they always do. With only 2 draft picks in 2007 making the team, I think they will be fine.

    I really hope BB has proof of other teams doing it and screws them, if everyone loses their first round picks, its goign to be a fast first round.
     
  17. Robdude

    Robdude Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    #75 Jersey

    I agree that losing a picking does not hurt us nearly as much as others i have complete faith in managment.

    But with that said I hope and beleive that BB will not rat out any other teams. He is not a Mangini rat
     
  18. Jacky Roberts

    Jacky Roberts 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    I think the gloves are off with Mangini. If BB gets a chance to ruin his career, he'll do it. Lets be honest, BB is a pr*ck and he is vindictive.
     
  19. DonBlackmon55

    DonBlackmon55 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    ;) All I care is the Raven beat the effin crap out of Jets, and then Dec 16th we run up the score down the RAT's throat (50+). The th NY media can have a field day
     
  20. Real World

    Real World Moderator Staff Member

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    The penatly isn't just excessive, it's stupid. The commissioner is punishing the franchise for the misdeeds of the coach. A 1st is a long term punishment which will be felt for years to come. It's a Logan Mankins, Daniel Graham, Larence Maroney, etc. What happens if BB is gone in a year or two? BB should have been suspended & fined, while the franchise should have lost a less expensive pick. He should have punished the man responsible, and not so much the franchise and fans.
     
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