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The Uncle Heatster 1st + 1 mock draft 1.0, March 15

Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by dryheat44, Mar 15, 2011.

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  1. dryheat44

    dryheat44 Rookie

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    #75 Jersey

    First of all, this mock is completely unrealistic -- it has no trades. It's just something I do to get a handle on where the "hot spots" may be and where trades are likely to occur. These are bolded. Two observations -- DeQuan Bowers falls out of the top 10, and Mark Ingram doesn't go in the first round at all...other indicators that a trade could be a possibility. Even though it's unrealistic, it's something I do anyway, so I figured I'd share it and get any comments that I could use going forward. Onward....



    1. CAR Blaine Gabbart
    2. DEN Marcel Dareus
    3. BUF Patrick Peterson
    4. CIN Cam Newton
    5. ARI Von Miller
    6. CLE Nick Fairley
    7. SF Prince Amukamara
    8. TEN AJ Green
    9. DAL Cam Jordan - I think that Dallas will probably move up. If not, I think they should trade back. Quinn and Bowers should excite somebody.
    10. WAS Robert Quinn
    11. HOU Aldon Smith
    12. MIN Julio Jones
    13. DET DaQuan Bowers - Bowers just wasn't a huge priority for teams up until now -- and he's not for Detroit, either, but line him up next to Suh and look out. This could be a likely trading spot for anybody looking to land Bowers.
    14. STL Corey Liuget
    15. MIA Phil Taylor - Early? Perhaps, but the 3-4 doesn't run without a nose. Miami would certainly prefer to trade back a couple of spots and take Taylor. SD at #18 seems like a possibility.
    16. JAC Jimmy Smith
    17. NE JJ Watt
    18. SD Tyron Smith - San Diego wields some power in this draft, and is probably targeting some of the same picks as New England. Miami seems a good partner.
    19. NYG Anthony Castonzo
    20. TB Martez Wilson
    21. KC Gabe Carimi
    22. IND Derek Sherrod
    23. PHI Brandon Harris
    24. NO Justin Houston - Nobody here seems to be an especially great value for the Saints. This is a good spot for somebody to come get Ingram, Pouncey, or Wilkerson.
    25. SEA Jake Locker
    26. BAL Mike Pouncey
    27. ATL Stephen Paea
    28. NE Ryan Kerrigan
    29. CHI Christian Ballard
    30. NYJ Muhammad Wilkerson
    31. PIT Ben Ijalana
    32. GB Nate Solder
    33. NE Danny Watkins - This pick will almost certainly be traded, but Watkins belongs in New England, and I don't think the Patriots will trade down too far.
  2. DW Toys

    DW Toys Rookie

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    This above would be my perfect scenario.

    I lean a little toward Ingram somehow because I think BGE had a nice year and was serviceable, but I think Ingram is the bell cow like Dillon was.
    DW Toys
  3. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    sign me up
  4. dryheat44

    dryheat44 Rookie

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    #75 Jersey

    Yeah, I think most of us would sign off on that 1st round -- which means it's probably impossible. What definitely works in our favor is that Kerrigan doesn't figure on getting as much interest from 4-3 teams, which is pretty much all who drafts in that range.
    Last edited: Mar 15, 2011
  5. kurtinelson

    kurtinelson Rookie

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    Really? I thought the word at the combine was that Kerrigan was almost exclusively a 4-3 DE prospect.
  6. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Also, no trades allows us to get Watt. It would seem that someone would trade up to 14, 15 or 16 to grab Watt. If the draft went this way through 13, I would expect Belichick to trade up with St. Louis at 14 to get Watt.

    Last edited: Mar 15, 2011
  7. TealSox

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    Drafting Kerrigan and Watt would be a bit redundant, no? I was under the impression that both played majority of the snaps at DE and may transition into 3-4 OLBs. This doesn't even account for having Cunningham.

    In either case, I like both players and the bottom of the first round is weak. Ingram would be tempting at 33 though, but having him available in the second round will cause the trade lines to open up and the Pats could being to stockpile for 2012.
  8. Patriot Missile

    Patriot Missile Rookie

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    #75 Jersey

    I highly doubt Watt will be moving to LB anytime soon. He weighs in the 295 range and with his height and frame I could see him playing at 305.

    Kerrigan definately a convert. A lot of folks see him as a safe pick. I'm in the stiff minority on this one.
  9. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Watt is 25 pounds heavier than Kerrigan. I see Watt as being a DE, and Kerrigan as being an OLB.

  10. dryheat44

    dryheat44 Rookie

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    #75 Jersey

    No, no....Watt is a 3-4 DE. Kerrigan is a 3-4 OLB. Watt might be the heaviest LB in the history of the league if he were to be slotted back there.

    I agree that Ingram is tempting at #33, but there are other issues that need to be attended to. I would expect him to go late in the first anyway after a trade.
  11. kurtinelson

    kurtinelson Rookie

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    As one of the top 3-4 NT prospects, I think you are on to something with Phil Taylor as a draft board riser.
  12. Patriot Missile

    Patriot Missile Rookie

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    #75 Jersey

    I just don't see it with the guy. Atleast with Ngata, Wilfork and Raji there was no denying the strength and athletic ability. It was there from day 1 and it translated to lots of film. All of a sudden Taylor decides he wants to try the week of the Senior Bowl and combine to impress me? Nice try but that sounds more like lazy to me. Mayo is enamored with this kid and I can't see why. Let the Jets have him and we'll take Kenrick Ellis. He is the same type of player that could be had later on in the draft without using 28 or 33.
  13. kurtinelson

    kurtinelson Rookie

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    I have character concerns with him, but he's arguably the top rated 3-4 NT prospect and it would not surprise me to see him go higher than many project. His off my draft board for the Patriots unless he falls into round 3.
  14. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Yes, in your scenario, we would need to be careful. All the OT's are gone, as well as Pouncey and Ijalana. You are quite right. We cannot move down too far. Some would say that only Watkins and Wisnewski are left among the first tier guards. There is a strong tempatation to take your man in these situation, unless Belichick is fine with either of these, and also in a couple of players in the late 30's (perhaps Reed).

  15. ZoisKing

    ZoisKing Rookie

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    I'm very fond of Kerrigan, and think we'd be able to get him around 17. I doubt he falls to 28. However, if we're just going by your mock, then I'd take Carimi at 17. I'd like to see a future tackle tandem of Vollmer (LT) and Carimi (RT). I believe a good right guard would be available by pick 60.
  16. Off The Grid

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    #3 Jersey

    [​IMG] [​IMG] [​IMG]
  17. Off The Grid

    Off The Grid Rookie

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    Very fair Arguments, sir, and I'd be the LAST guy ~ despite my FERVENT support for the guy, IF he checks out ~ to tell you that he or ANYONE is a Sure Thing...But I DO have a Rebuttal, forged way back in the Summer, by the extraordinary Wes Bunting of National FootBall Post:

    Top 100 prospects for 2011: Part 3 | National Football Post

    ...NONE of which is to say that I wouldn't love to draft Kenrick Ellis AS WELL!! :rocker:
  18. Patriot Missile

    Patriot Missile Rookie

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    #75 Jersey

    To be clear. I don't think he is going to bust. Projecting a guy of his size to bust is very hard to do. I just don't see the need for him with such a high draft pick when his twin brother across the way who I feel has much higher upside could be had with 74 or 92. Maybe even later if your willing to take the risk?

    I am losing faith quickly in Wes Bunting regarding anything to do with the Pats. Ayers and Houston? He's got to be kidding himself if he thinks that's the direction we are going. I'm not even sure if he knows that we've moved from a 34 to a 43 under to a 4 2 5 with all the stunts and disquises to go with it. I guess the one thing that is constant is they still work out of a two gap most of the time. We are many defenses which require the personal to be bigger and more versatile to play 34 on one play and 43 on the next without subbing if need be. It creates havoc and confusion and Belichicks master plan is almost in place and ready to be launched at the NFL. He is ready for someone like Watt at DE and somebody like Quinn or Smith at OLB to complete it.
  19. Off The Grid

    Off The Grid Rookie

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    #3 Jersey

    Nicely put, sir. :cool:

    Regarding Bunting: I think he is an exceptional Analyst...But I couldn't even finish watching that Video, the other day, it was so insipid. It was truly shocking, how far off he was.
  20. supafly

    supafly PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    My god I hope you're right, I have been in need of some tough D around here for a while--not to excessively whine either b/c it hasn't been 'that' long, but I'd love to go back to the days where opposing offenses actually feared us. A physical, run stuffing defense, that can cause havoc on the QB, and create confusion. That said, we were still able to see the Manning face this year, we were still 8th in overall scoring, and we did cause a lot of turnovers--I think this thing is headed back in the right direction for sure.

    With the return of Ty Warren, Leigh Bodden, and a healthy Wright and Pryor, I believe the defense will certainly continue to improve. We also have the added experience of last year's rookies in Spikes and Cunningham, the possibility of a very decent secondary, AND hopefully the addition of fresh youth and talent through the draft. The opportunity to grab a playmaker or two, and the possibility of truly solving/or at least helping to solve the RDE situation should be huge. I will admit that I was not one to be overly confident in my season prediction record, and was one who had a 10-6/11-5 record as a good possibility, but I am seriously very optimistic with the improvement of this defense this year. I believe there is serious potential for something again, and this draft will be a key component in that.
  21. bigcountry75

    bigcountry75 Rookie

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    I am just going to throw this out there in this thread because of the players you have the pats drafting.....Could we possibly see the scenario of drafting Watt at #17....Then using pick #28 and another pick to move up to say #22 or #23 and grabbing Pouncey....Then using #33 on Watkins......I would love this as we would get our DE and grab 2 possible stud O-lineman (1 a replacement for Koppen in a year at C) and then we could still grab a Brooks Reed or another OLB (pass rusher) in the 2nd round or even later.....I just feel with the uncertainty of our O-line and just not needing a roster overhaul to win a super bowl that this might be a great option to protect Brady and give us beef up front in the running game.....This would of course would be a scenario if Mankins didn't resign.....Any thoughts on something like this happening?
  22. supafly

    supafly PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    I was actually thinking about that same scenario, only using the 17 on an OL, then moving back up to 25 (or so) to grab Wilkerson. Same approach basically, same type of positive result.

    We can amuse ourselves with the passing of time, as we look forward to the draft, but it's really all how Belichick carries out his plan obviously.

    I especially love the "I'd trade the 33 and (insert # here) to team (insert name here) for their (insert # here) and next year's 2nd rounder, along with (player name here)" comments, like suddenly we know how all aspects of the draft, specific rounds and trades included, are going to play out Nostradamus style, lol.

    I like to keep occupied and have some targeted players, and it's all in good fun anyway, but some of these mocks and comments are rather amusing--as if Belichick himself has any idea whatsoever what will happen. Even Reiss himself claimed that he only hit on one player in the last couple of years, so in my opinion, just picking the right player or 2 is a major victory for me, lol. I am not going to pretend like I have the value chart point system memorized, and predict certain trades, although moving back up to get a targeted player before 28 does seem like a winning idea.

    Having an idea about who would make a good trading partner like HOU, as one poster pointed out is a good idea of course, as is keeping an eye on SD, and other teams who are scouting and needing the same type of players. Beyond that, I think you just have to go with the flow, and I think even BB would tell us that one.
  23. dryheat44

    dryheat44 Rookie

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    #75 Jersey

    All good points, and yes, I expect #28 to be traded up or back, since that's the range when the 3rd QB will probably go off.

    Just to address one point: We all love Mike Reiss, but scouting isn't a strength of his. Nor should it be. He works tremendously hard to bring us news and doesn't have the luxury to scout players like a good percentage of this board does. Last draft alone about 8 people here correctly called three of the Patriots picks. I'm confident this board does a much better job of calling Patriots picks better than any media outlet out there.
  24. Wheelssps

    Wheelssps Rookie

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    I'll agree to your premise that this board does better than any media outlet. In general people here understand the Pat's system (well, as well as people not named BB can) and which players have strengths that can play to this system and team. An unfortunate number of national draft people seem to have very little understanding of various teams, such as how the Pats is different than Pitt, different than another system, etc.

    Don't underestimate another advantage this board has, though, which is sheer numbers. If about 8 people got three picks right last year, how many were predicting? a couple of hundred? At some point, insight helps, but the number of predictions on this board might also "guarantee" that a certain number of people get a number of picks right when a good deal of it is still random chance.
  25. jmt57

    jmt57 Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I wonder if in this scenario the Pats might be more inclined to go with Wilkerson over Kerrigan. I also wonder if they'd trade up for Houston - and if so, how far would they move up for him?
  26. dryheat44

    dryheat44 Rookie

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    #75 Jersey

    I'm all for doubling up on a position....but doubling up on a position in the 1st round seems unlikely.
  27. VJCPatriot

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    I don't see the Pats moving up for Houston. They generally don't move up for linebackers. See them pass on Clay Matthews twice for instance and also the kid in San Fran, Manny Lawson multiple times. The other factor is that if Houston is gone, a very good prospect in Brooks Reed will still be available. I'd like to see him join the Pats sometime in round 2 if possible.
    Last edited: Mar 16, 2011
  28. Ochmed Jones

    Ochmed Jones Rookie

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    #12 Jersey

    Very nice mock. I admit I am in tears to see the Jets get Wilkerson, but with all the QB's available at #33, maybe somebody rolls the dice and dances with BB for the #33 pick.

    My hope is BB bleeds them for #33, much like he bled Ozzie Newsome and Baltimore a few years back.
  29. Patriot Missile

    Patriot Missile Rookie

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    #75 Jersey

    Move up and grab a real LT in Matt Kalil.
  30. SunnyDenmark

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    IMHO - NEP need to trade #33 for next years first even if it only gives a 'bonus' of a middle round pick this year. Reason being the last reports for new CBA rookie signing rules would be 4 years max contract for 1st rounder and 3 years (with RFA) for rounds 2-7. Which is why I hope we use our 2 first rounders this year.

    In BB's complex defense, seems as it takes a good year for players to learn it (see Chungs & Merriwethers redshirt year,) - then if you get unlucky and an IR in years 2, 3 or 4 - then you have half of the contract in in fairly non-productive term.

    Maybe BB will go back to getting wily vets for his complex D. Can't even imagine how productive a round 2-7 player would be - being only on a 3 year contract. By the time he has learned the system then he would be an RFA.

    if the new CBA uses those contract legnths - it certainly would hurt a team like Pats / Steelers more than other teams with simple 'attack upfield' defenses.
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