The technical term for Caldwell's condition is...

[DaBruinz]

I wouldn't be surprised if Caldwell was gone. Doug Gabriel fumbled that ball in the Jets game which shifted momentum to New York's side and they ended up winning, and Gabriel was cut before he even got off the plane home.

You should be considering that Caldwell talked to BB after the Draft and assured him of his spot on the team.

Gabriel was a whole different situation and had more to do with the guy's attitude than it did one fumble in a game.

 

[DaBruinz]

I used logic. You are using an apples-to-oranges comparison.

Here is my logic:

1. Caldwell had an average regular season. Any merely competent NFL-caliber WR would have had similar production in his situation.

2. Gaffney signed mid-season; by the end of the season and in the playoffs, he looked like the better WR.

3. Caldwell had two huge drops in the AFFC. I know a loss is a multivariate situation and one single play does not account for it, but if he makes either catch there is probably a 90% chance NE wins.

Sorry, but this is BS because on the 1st one, Gaffney caught the TD on the very next play. And it was a 50-50 shot that Caldwell could have gotten in on the 2nd one because there WAS a Colts defender heading full speed at Caldwell and might have very well taken Caldwell down for only a short gain. Go back and watch the replays.

4. NE signs the top WR free agent in Stallworth.

5. NE trades a 2nd & 7th for Welker.

6. NE signs Washington.

7. NE trades a 4th for Randy Moss.

Supply and Demand. You might want to read about it. The demand in the league wasn't that much and the supply was there. Kelley Washington is a nobody and I laugh every time someone uses him as an example to try and prove that Caldwell is bad.

8. BB says there is a place for Troy Brown on this team.

I add all that up and it tells me that BB is not happy with Caldwell and is planning for a future without him.

Edit:

P.S. And no, I'm not happy with Brady's performance in the last few big games. It's not good enough for me, and I can guarantee you it isn't good enough for Tom Brady. But to compare him to Reche is silly and you know it. Brady has already proven himself over and over in the clutch.

Except for the fact that BB talked to Caldwell after the draft and told him that he had a place on the team.

BTW, Troy Brown isn't just a WR. He's also a nickleback and punt returner. BB's been known to keep versatile players around.

So, someone who has proven himself can't sh!t himself? Man, you must life in lala land if you believe that one.

 

[DaBruinz]

61/760/4 ?

What were your expectations? As I said, any competent NFL WR thrust into the WR1 role for this team would have matched (if not bested) these numbers.

And I strongly disagree he was brought in as the WR3 or 4. I think he was clearly signed to be the #2 WR with the thinking Branch would remain our #1.

Sorry to harp on like this, but Caldwell is one of my current Pat pet peeves.

Please refer to Deion Branch's numbers during his time with the Patriots. Caldwell just about MATCHED Branch's 2005 numbers. Just a reminder, 2005 was Branch's 4th year on the team and 2006 was Caldwell's 1st.

 

[Hoodie]

Anyone else remember that woman who appeared on David Letterman's Stupid Human Tricks who could make her eyes literally pop out of her head?

 

[DaBruinz]

Dropped catches do not equal bad passes.

How do you figure? They are BOTH measures of a quality of a particular position. Dropped Passes is a measurement of the Wide Receiver position and Bad Passes is a measurement of the Quarterback position. BOTH can mean NOTHING or they can mean the loss of a game depending on when they happen. Brady made a horrible decision to try and go to Ben Watson on the last drive and also made a bad throw all the while having Heath Evans open deep. Hence, Bad Pass that led to an interception that ended the game.

 

[tombonneau]

Tombonneau -
Why not compare Caldwell's YPC with that of Branch's YPC in the same offense? That would be a much fairer comparison.

Deion Branch - 78 receptions on 125 targets for 998 yards (12.8 YPC) and 5 tds

Reche Caldwell - 61 receptions on 102 targets for 760 yards (12.5 YPC) and 4 td

Reche was running the SAME ROUTES that Branch was running and got a 3rd of a yard less.

All your other numbers are superfluous and have no bearing on the argument. And your conclusion is wrong also. You can't guarantee that they would have done better because they were in different offenses.

I considered this defense DaBruinz; however, my line of thought was that Branch is simply not an elite WR and his YPC is a reflection on this, not the NE system:

                 +--------------------------+-------------------------+
                 |          Rushing         |        Receiving        |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| Year  TM |   G |   Att  Yards    Y/A   TD |   Rec  Yards   Y/R   TD |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| 2002 nwe |  13 |     2      0    0.0    0 |    43    489  11.4    2 |
| 2003 nwe |  15 |     1     11   11.0    0 |    57    803  14.1    3 |
| 2004 nwe |   9 |     0      0    0.0    0 |    35    454  13.0    4 |
| 2005 nwe |  16 |     0      0    0.0    0 |    78    998  12.8    5 |
| 2006 sea |  14 |     4     30    7.5    0 |    53    725  13.7    4 |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
|  TOTAL   |  67 |     7     41    5.9    0 |   266   3469  13.0   18 |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

His YPC in SEA was not all that greater than during his tenure in NE, and was probably about average to what he got in NE. So I'm not sure Deion's YPC is a factor of the NE system, but rather a factor of his ability as a WR.

Same for Reche. He is simply a 12-13 ypc WR, nothing special.

                 +--------------------------+-------------------------+
                 |          Rushing         |        Receiving        |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| Year  TM |   G |   Att  Yards    Y/A   TD |   Rec  Yards   Y/R   TD |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| 2002 sdg |  14 |     2      9    4.5    0 |    22    208   9.5    3 |
| 2003 sdg |   9 |     5     39    7.8    0 |     8     80  10.0    0 |
| 2004 sdg |   6 |     4     45   11.2    0 |    18    310  17.2    3 |
| 2005 sdg |  16 |     2     10    5.0    0 |    28    352  12.6    1 |
| 2006 nwe |  16 |     1      5    5.0    0 |    61    760  12.5    4 |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
|  TOTAL   |  61 |    14    108    7.7    0 |   137   1710  12.5   11 |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

Even disregarding Reche's terrible rookie season, in 2005, his only other 16 game season, he produced almost identical YPC stats. To me, this is function of his ability, not the system. Same as Branch.

I believe my hypothesis will hold true when Moss & Stallworth both average 15+ YPC this season in the same NE offense.

 

[DaBruinz]

Sigh. Again.

I already said, the fact that Caldwell didn't have many regular season drops shows that he choked in the Indy game. That's all. He did.

And so did Brady. But you refuse to admit that point.

Show me where I said that. I used him as an example of WR that Belichick brought in this offseason, I made no claim on how good he is - although playing behind the WR he did is no crime.

Nice backtracking.

 

[cstjohn17]

You should be considering that Caldwell talked to BB after the Draft and assured him of his spot on the team.

Gabriel was a whole different situation and had more to do with the guy's attitude than it did one fumble in a game.

I would call it passive assurance at best. BB usually he allows the competition in camp determine the roster spots.

IMO Moss and Welker are the only slam dunk, sure things, with Stallworth a virtual lock. Jackson will be hard to cut but may land on PUP or IR. That is 3 or 4 spots, only 1 or 2 left. It gets really crowded if Troy Brown comes back.

Gaffney, Caldwell & Washington seem to be fighting for the last spot(s), I wouldn't be surprised to see two of them get cut. If any of them can contribute of special teams it will go a long way to securing a roster spot.

I wish Reche would have caught the balls against Indy but maybe it was the straw that broke the camels back and forced the FO to critically review the WR core and make the off-season improvements.

Caldwell was brought in to be a #2 or #3, the fact that he had to be the number 1 speaks to how weak the 06 WRs were. He or Gaffney should be able to become good 3rd or 4th options and hopefully catch 30-45 passes next year. Caldwell is not my favorite WR of all time but I will give him props, he works hard and stepped up as the number 1 last year, he made some big catches down the stretch. Unfortunately he played his worst game on the biggest stage, but that is the way the cookie crumbles.

 

[tombonneau]

Please refer to Deion Branch's numbers during his time with the Patriots. Caldwell just about MATCHED Branch's 2005 numbers. Just a reminder, 2005 was Branch's 4th year on the team and 2006 was Caldwell's 1st.

To each his own. I thought Caldwell was a bum when he was a Charger, and my opinion has not changed much since he became a Patriot.

Barring injury, I don't think he will be on the team in 2007. He is merely competent NFL WR and will be lucky to be on the bottom of someone's roster when he is cut.

 

[tombonneau]

No, it doesn't change that Caldwell dropped the ball. But it changes the PERSPECTIVE that it needs to be viewed in. And, whether Caldwell got it or Gaffney got it on the next play, the likelihood of it changing the game is negligible.

If you are going to say that Caldwell sh!t his pants, you have to also apply it to Brady because in the span of 2 games Brady threw 4 ints. That is fully one third the number of interceptions he threw over the 1st 17 games.

I 100% think Brady played below average in the last 3 playoff games. He **** the bed. Period. But he's also won us 3 SBs and isn't going anywhere.

 

[BelichickFan]

Nice backtracking.

Who's backtracking ? I never said Caldwell sucks, I said he choked and I stand behind that. He's an average NFL WR, a below average starting NFL WR.

 

[DaBruinz]

Tom -

There are some serious flaws in your argument.

1) It is the New England system. Go look at Troy Brown's numbers from 2001-2003. They are slightly worse than Branch's and Caldwell's.

2) To say that it wasn't the system, you'd have to look at YAC and show that guys like Moss and Stallworth were getting significant amounts of YAC in comparison. That is where you can tell that Stallworth is good (218 YAC on 38 receptions). Moss, not so much. Welker, definitely (285 YAC on 67). But Caldwell is right up there with 225 YAC on his 61 receptions. Branch, this year, had 187 YAC on his 53 receptons.

3) I am not saying that Caldwell is ELITE. Never have. But he definitely surpassed expectations, nearly equalling Deion Branch's production during his 1st year in the system.

4) As for your hypothesis being proven by Moss and Stallworth, I'm sorry, but it has no merit. Moss and Stallworth BOTH should do better in the YPC area. However, it will not just be because of their ability. I can guarantee you they will NOT be running the routes that Caldwell and Branch were running. If they are, then the Pats aren't playing to their strengths. So its not even a fair comparison.

I considered this defense DaBruinz; however, my line of thought was that Branch is simply not an elite WR and his YPC is a reflection on this, not the NE system:

                 +--------------------------+-------------------------+
                 |          Rushing         |        Receiving        |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| Year  TM |   G |   Att  Yards    Y/A   TD |   Rec  Yards   Y/R   TD |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| 2002 nwe |  13 |     2      0    0.0    0 |    43    489  11.4    2 |
| 2003 nwe |  15 |     1     11   11.0    0 |    57    803  14.1    3 |
| 2004 nwe |   9 |     0      0    0.0    0 |    35    454  13.0    4 |
| 2005 nwe |  16 |     0      0    0.0    0 |    78    998  12.8    5 |
| 2006 sea |  14 |     4     30    7.5    0 |    53    725  13.7    4 |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
|  TOTAL   |  67 |     7     41    5.9    0 |   266   3469  13.0   18 |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

His YPC in SEA was not all that greater than during his tenure in NE, and was probably about average to what he got in NE. So I'm not sure Deion's YPC is a factor of the NE system, but rather a factor of his ability as a WR.



Same for Reche. He is simply a 12-13 ypc WR, nothing special.

                 +--------------------------+-------------------------+
                 |          Rushing         |        Receiving        |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| Year  TM |   G |   Att  Yards    Y/A   TD |   Rec  Yards   Y/R   TD |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| 2002 sdg |  14 |     2      9    4.5    0 |    22    208   9.5    3 |
| 2003 sdg |   9 |     5     39    7.8    0 |     8     80  10.0    0 |
| 2004 sdg |   6 |     4     45   11.2    0 |    18    310  17.2    3 |
| 2005 sdg |  16 |     2     10    5.0    0 |    28    352  12.6    1 |
| 2006 nwe |  16 |     1      5    5.0    0 |    61    760  12.5    4 |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
|  TOTAL   |  61 |    14    108    7.7    0 |   137   1710  12.5   11 |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

Even disregarding Reche's terrible rookie season, in 2005, his only other 16 game season, he produced almost identical YPC stats. To me, this is function of his ability, not the system. Same as Branch.

I believe my hypothesis will hold true when Moss & Stallworth both average 15+ YPC this season in the same NE offense.

 

[DaBruinz]

Who's backtracking ? I never said Caldwell sucks, I said he choked and I stand behind that. He's an average NFL WR, a below average starting NFL WR.

1st off, you really should pay attention to what is quoted before replying.
2ndly, while you have not said "Caldwell sucks" directly, your posts sure as hell imply it. Especially with saying he's a below average starting WR.

3rd, Weren't you one of the people saying that the Pats should pay Branch in the 5-6 million range? Caldwell, in his 1st year in a complex offense, damn near matched Branch's numbers without the benefit of a David Givens opposite him. So, if Caldwell is a below average starting WR, what does that make Branch?

4th, please re-read what your post was:

A good WR has few flat out drops each year, meaning less than 10, maybe one every two games.

Then think about these names :

Moss. Stallwaorth. Welker. Washington.

Put 2 and 2 together to see how Belichick feels about it.

It seems to me that when you put 2 and 2 together, it only equals 4 when you want it to. Otherwise, you wouldn't have included Washington in this example to try and imply that Caldwell was not a good receiver.

 

[BelichickFan]

It seems to me that when you put 2 and 2 together, it only equals 4 when you want it to. Otherwise, you wouldn't have included Washington in this example to try and imply that Caldwell was not a good receiver.

Nope. It implies that Belichick thought the position needed to be upgraded. Whether Washington can do that or not, we'll see. But the WR we had last year weren't good enough to go forward with.

 

[tombonneau]

Tom -

There are some serious flaws in your argument.

1) It is the New England system. Go look at Troy Brown's numbers from 2001-2003. They are slightly worse than Branch's and Caldwell's.

2) To say that it wasn't the system, you'd have to look at YAC and show that guys like Moss and Stallworth were getting significant amounts of YAC in comparison. That is where you can tell that Stallworth is good (218 YAC on 38 receptions). Moss, not so much. Welker, definitely (285 YAC on 67). But Caldwell is right up there with 225 YAC on his 61 receptions. Branch, this year, had 187 YAC on his 53 receptons.

3) I am not saying that Caldwell is ELITE. Never have. But he definitely surpassed expectations, nearly equalling Deion Branch's production during his 1st year in the system.

4) As for your hypothesis being proven by Moss and Stallworth, I'm sorry, but it has no merit. Moss and Stallworth BOTH should do better in the YPC area. However, it will not just be because of their ability. I can guarantee you they will NOT be running the routes that Caldwell and Branch were running. If they are, then the Pats aren't playing to their strengths. So its not even a fair comparison.

Well, ultimately its a chicken and the egg -- the Pats starting running a system that suited their WRs, who had limited ability/range/ypc, or the players have that ypc because of the system.

I think its a combination. As stated, Caldwell is just a 12-13 ypc WR, Branch not much better. It won't matter what system they are in.

The fact that NE will likely alter their system for Moss & Stallworth is because they are more physically talented.

But it's all digression.

My ulimate thesis is that Caldwell is a merely average WR who had a horrible AFCC and this will likely cost him a roster spot.

Do you honestly think that if Gaffney & Caldwell had reversed places, and Gaffney started the season and Caldwell was signed halfway through, that Gaffney would not have produced similar stats as to the 06 Caldwell?

Hence, in my mind, Gaffney=Caldwell, with the huge exception that Caldwell had a horrible AFCC. So if it comes down to JG vs. RC, I think JG gets the nod based on this.

The wildcard is Washington. If he sucks, RC has an outside chance as they might keep both JG & RC.

 

[DaBruinz]

I would call it passive assurance at best. BB usually he allows the competition in camp determine the roster spots.

IMO Moss and Welker are the only slam dunk, sure things, with Stallworth a virtual lock. Jackson will be hard to cut but may land on PUP or IR. That is 3 or 4 spots, only 1 or 2 left. It gets really crowded if Troy Brown comes back.

Gaffney, Caldwell & Washington seem to be fighting for the last spot(s), I wouldn't be surprised to see two of them get cut. If any of them can contribute of special teams it will go a long way to securing a roster spot.

I wish Reche would have caught the balls against Indy but maybe it was the straw that broke the camels back and forced the FO to critically review the WR core and make the off-season improvements.

Caldwell was brought in to be a #2 or #3, the fact that he had to be the number 1 speaks to how weak the 06 WRs were. He or Gaffney should be able to become good 3rd or 4th options and hopefully catch 30-45 passes next year. Caldwell is not my favorite WR of all time but I will give him props, he works hard and stepped up as the number 1 last year, he made some big catches down the stretch. Unfortunately he played his worst game on the biggest stage, but that is the way the cookie crumbles.

I honestly believe that the Front Office was going to bring in MORE WRs regardless of what happened last year on the field. Why? Because they just didn't have the talent. Stallworth, Moss, and Welker are definite upgrades over Kelvin Kight, Bam Childress and Troy Brown. Chad Jackson is probably headed to the PUP. I don't see Washington making it because the guy has never really done anything. Even when Houshmandzedah was hurt, Chris Henry moved up and took the #2 spot. Not Washington.

I was happy when Caldwell was signed because I felt he could be as good as Branch. He damn near showed that he was and did it without the benefit of a competant #2 for the season. BB praises progress and awards hard work. Caldwell improved tremendously from day 1 to the final game of the season. Yes, everyone has bad games, including Brady. And that is the point of mentioning Brady's performance in the AFCCG. In fact, as Tombonneau noted, Brady has stunk it up in one play-off game each of the last 2 years. In fact, Branch and Givens both had critical drops against the Broncos and people seem to have forgotten that and want to hold it against Caldwell.

I believe that Caldwell could be a very competant #2 opposite a Stallworth or a Moss.

OH, something that people over-look is that Caldwell has been a special teams player and could step in again.

 

[cstjohn17]

1) I honestly believe that the Front Office was going to bring in MORE WRs regardless of what happened last year on the field. Why? Because they just didn't have the talent.

2) I was happy when Caldwell was signed because I felt he could be as good as Branch.

3) I believe that Caldwell could be a very competant #2 opposite a Stallworth or a Moss.

4) OH, something that people over-look is that Caldwell has been a special teams player and could step in again.

1) I agree, I thought our WRs last year were among the worst in the NFL.
2) I think Branch is better.
3) I thought Caldwell could come in an replace Givens but also felt the Patriots would miss Given's physical style and clutch play. I hadn't really thought of it much until now but another factor in the inconsistent running attack could possibly be tied to ineffective blocking from the WRs. Not the primary reason but another contributing factor.
4) He will have to play a lot of special teams to make the team. Whoever contributes more on special teams out of Gaffney, Washington and Caldwell will have an inside track.

 

[DaBruinz]

1) I agree, I thought our WRs last year were among the worst in the NFL.
2) I think Branch is better.
3) I thought Caldwell could come in an replace Givens but also felt the Patriots would miss Given's physical style and clutch play. I hadn't really thought of it much until now but another factor in the inconsistent running attack could possibly be tied to ineffective blocking from the WRs. Not the primary reason but another contributing factor.
4) He will have to play a lot of special teams to make the team. Whoever contributes more on special teams out of Gaffney, Washington and Caldwell will have an inside track.

I don't necessarily agree with number 4. If I am a coach and I have to chose between a guy who can come off the bench and fit in seemlessly because he knows the offense but is ok on special teams or a guy who doesn't know the offense but is good on special teams, I chose the guy who is ok on special teams. Caldwell has returned kicks and punts previously. Gaffney has not. I don't know to what extent Washington's experience on special teams is, but I am not holding my breath for him to make the team.