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It's still 10 weeks until the 2015 draft, and plenty of time for prospects to rise and fall on draft boards, so I take all rankings with a healthy grain of salt. But right now it looks like there are only about 15-20 clear 1st round talents in this draft, and some of them are not necessarily immediate contributors (TJ Clemmings is raw, Todd Gurley is coming off an ACL, etc.). I know that many people think a 1st round pick at #32 should be a "plug and play" player who can come in and immediately start, but I think that is erroneous. I'm happy to get a superior long term talent who may take some time to develop, as was the case last year with Dominique Easley, who I expect to be a monster in 2015.
The Pats are likely to get a 3rd round comp pick for Aqib Talib, which would likely give them 3 picks in the 96-100 range. They could conceivably have up to 5 picks clustered around that area if they move back from 64 and/or move up from their 4th round pick. They will have a lot of versatility to move around in that area, and the cost to do so is fairly trivial compared to the cost of trading up in the first 2 rounds. I think this area is likely to be the "sweet spot" for the Pats to find values.
Right now here's a short list of some of the guys who I think could be terrific values in this range:
1. Marcus Hardison, DT/DE, Arizona St. I think Manx (who has been way ahead on Hardison) nailed this one. Hardison is 6' 3 1/8" 311# and plays both inside and out for Arizona St. He has terrific edge speed for a guy his size - I actually think he's faster coming around the edge than Owamagbe Odighizuwa, who is 40# lighter. I think he's more explosive than Arik Amsted, who Mel Kiper has going #8 in his most recent mock. He was a QB in high school, and is still learning the DL position - this was a breakout season for him - so he is still under the radar. He could easily blow up the Combine and rise, but right now he's still a stealth draft stock, and the 96-100 range seems reasonable. I think he could be an immediate rotational player at both DE and DT, and the combination of Easley and Hardison inside would be a tremendous pressure package.
2. Ellis McCarthy, DT/DE, UCLA. 6'5" 325#. I think Ochmed nailed this one. He's been the biggest McCarthy champion on this board, since the beginning of the season. McCarthy was highly hyped coming into this season and missed time with injuries. His draft stock took a huge hit, but he came back strong at the end of the year. He's a work in progress, and (as Ochmed notes), is likely to need a year of development. But his upside is enormous. He has uncanny movement skills for a guy that size, has played both outside and in for UCLA, and could develop into an impact interior lineman down the road. I like him much more than Carl Davis. A lot would depend on how McCarthy interviews, if he's viewed as having the necessary commitment and work ethic, and how much his injuries factored into his inconsistency. Assuming the answer to those questions is position, I think he's worth the risk if he's available in the late 3rd/4th round.
3. Max Valles, DE/OLB, Virginia. 6'5" 240#. Valles is a former WR, TE and safety. As with Harrison and McCarthy, there's a common theme here - Valles has rare movement skills for his position. If you're looking to build a "Seattle" DL (especially the 2013 version) with lots of "athletes" who can rotate and wreck havoc from different spots, Hardison/McCarthy/Valles would be a great way to go, at very reasonable cost. Valles needs to bulk up and get stronger, especially if he stays on the line, but he reminds me more of Jamie Collins than anyone in this draft. Right now he's way under the radar.
4. Ali Marpet, OL, Hobart. 6' 3 6/8" 307#. A small school prospect who blossomed at the Senior Bowl, Hobart played LT for 3 years and was a 2 time team captain, but projects best to interior lineman at the next level. I rate him about equal to AJ Cann in terms of his ability to be a starting LG. Dane Brugler notes:
https://twitter.com/dpbrugler/status/560974164149149698
Any of these guys could easily blow away the Combine and be late risers going higher than 96. I give all 4 top-75 grades. There are likely to be others. DeAndre Smelter will likely be available later due to his ACL tear, but he's certainly at the top of my "bargain value" list. I'd take Tre McBride over Devin Smith any day. Jeremiah Poutasi is probably on my list if he's available at that range, and possibly Donovan Smith. Kwon Alexander, Josh Shaw and Ladarius Gunter are guys that I have to study more, but who could conceivably be strong values.
The Pats are likely to get a 3rd round comp pick for Aqib Talib, which would likely give them 3 picks in the 96-100 range. They could conceivably have up to 5 picks clustered around that area if they move back from 64 and/or move up from their 4th round pick. They will have a lot of versatility to move around in that area, and the cost to do so is fairly trivial compared to the cost of trading up in the first 2 rounds. I think this area is likely to be the "sweet spot" for the Pats to find values.
Right now here's a short list of some of the guys who I think could be terrific values in this range:
1. Marcus Hardison, DT/DE, Arizona St. I think Manx (who has been way ahead on Hardison) nailed this one. Hardison is 6' 3 1/8" 311# and plays both inside and out for Arizona St. He has terrific edge speed for a guy his size - I actually think he's faster coming around the edge than Owamagbe Odighizuwa, who is 40# lighter. I think he's more explosive than Arik Amsted, who Mel Kiper has going #8 in his most recent mock. He was a QB in high school, and is still learning the DL position - this was a breakout season for him - so he is still under the radar. He could easily blow up the Combine and rise, but right now he's still a stealth draft stock, and the 96-100 range seems reasonable. I think he could be an immediate rotational player at both DE and DT, and the combination of Easley and Hardison inside would be a tremendous pressure package.
2. Ellis McCarthy, DT/DE, UCLA. 6'5" 325#. I think Ochmed nailed this one. He's been the biggest McCarthy champion on this board, since the beginning of the season. McCarthy was highly hyped coming into this season and missed time with injuries. His draft stock took a huge hit, but he came back strong at the end of the year. He's a work in progress, and (as Ochmed notes), is likely to need a year of development. But his upside is enormous. He has uncanny movement skills for a guy that size, has played both outside and in for UCLA, and could develop into an impact interior lineman down the road. I like him much more than Carl Davis. A lot would depend on how McCarthy interviews, if he's viewed as having the necessary commitment and work ethic, and how much his injuries factored into his inconsistency. Assuming the answer to those questions is position, I think he's worth the risk if he's available in the late 3rd/4th round.
3. Max Valles, DE/OLB, Virginia. 6'5" 240#. Valles is a former WR, TE and safety. As with Harrison and McCarthy, there's a common theme here - Valles has rare movement skills for his position. If you're looking to build a "Seattle" DL (especially the 2013 version) with lots of "athletes" who can rotate and wreck havoc from different spots, Hardison/McCarthy/Valles would be a great way to go, at very reasonable cost. Valles needs to bulk up and get stronger, especially if he stays on the line, but he reminds me more of Jamie Collins than anyone in this draft. Right now he's way under the radar.
4. Ali Marpet, OL, Hobart. 6' 3 6/8" 307#. A small school prospect who blossomed at the Senior Bowl, Hobart played LT for 3 years and was a 2 time team captain, but projects best to interior lineman at the next level. I rate him about equal to AJ Cann in terms of his ability to be a starting LG. Dane Brugler notes:
https://twitter.com/dpbrugler/status/560974164149149698
Any of these guys could easily blow away the Combine and be late risers going higher than 96. I give all 4 top-75 grades. There are likely to be others. DeAndre Smelter will likely be available later due to his ACL tear, but he's certainly at the top of my "bargain value" list. I'd take Tre McBride over Devin Smith any day. Jeremiah Poutasi is probably on my list if he's available at that range, and possibly Donovan Smith. Kwon Alexander, Josh Shaw and Ladarius Gunter are guys that I have to study more, but who could conceivably be strong values.
