The sweet spot in this draft may be at pick #10

Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by VJCPatriot, Jan 16, 2008.

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  1. VJCPatriot

    VJCPatriot Pro Bowl Player

    Here is the current draft order:

    First Round
    1.Miami (1-15)
    2. St. Louis (3-13)
    3T. Atlanta (4-12)
    3T. Kansas City (4-12)
    3T. Oakland (4-12)
    6. New York Jets (4-12)
    7. New England (from San Francisco) (5-11)
    8. Baltimore (5-11)
    9. Cincinnati (7-9)
    10. New Orleans (7-9)

    So basically if the Pats move down to pick #10 they only have to worry about whom Baltimore, Cinci, and NO will pick. And I'm assuming they'd get an assurance from NO they won't take the guy we're targetting at that spot.

    Money-wise the difference between the overall contract of the #7 pick and the #10 pick is over 20M dollars. That's a big deal. So if the Pats don't see a must have guy at #7, they are still very likely to get a very good player at #10, and possibly the guy they were targetting all along at HALF the contract price!

    Rookie Contract numbers:
    7 Minnesota Adrian Peterson RB 6 $40.50 $6.75
    8 Atlanta Jamaal Anderson DE 5 $31.00 $6.20
    9 Miami Ted Ginn Jr. WR 5 Unknown Unknown $14M guarantees
    10 Houston Amobi Okoye DT 6 $15.40 $2.57

    Pick Value Chart:
    Last edited: Jan 16, 2008
  2. patchick

    patchick Moderatrix Staff Member Supporter

    #50 Jersey

    I generally think of the 10-12 range as an ideal talent/value proposition. Take a look at the past 4 drafts:

    10 Amobi Okoye Defensive tackle Louisville
    11 Patrick Willis Linebacker Ole Miss
    12 Marshawn Lynch Running back California

    10 Matt Leinart Quarterback Southern California
    11 Jay Cutler Quarterback Vanderbilt
    12 Haloti Ngata Defensive tackle Oregon

    10 Mike Williams Wide receiver Southern California (USC)
    11 Demarcus Ware Linebacker Troy
    12 Shawne Merriman Linebacker Maryland

    10 Dunta Robinson Cornerback South Carolina
    11 Ben Roethlisberger Quarterback Miami (OH)
    12 Jonathan Vilma Linebacker Miami (FL)
  3. mesoslo

    mesoslo Third String But Playing on Special Teams

    you can do that? the NFL allows that? If you say the sweet spot is at 10, and someone good from 3-5 starts to drop, getting closer to 10, the 7th pick will snatch that player from the 10th pick.

    The 10th pick saves money, true, but its not like we're the dolphins or jesters.
  4. VJCPatriot

    VJCPatriot Pro Bowl Player

    Very nice list. I like what I'm seeing there.

    Why not? I'm assuming that some information has to exchange hands when you're making a trade.
    Maybe they don't talk about who they're going to take. I know they do that a lot in the NBA draft, but the NFL draft could be different, who knows for sure?
    The Pats don't need to pinch pennies. They manage their cap well.
    But the reason you try to manage your cap well is so that you have more money to do things like sign your own guys (Moss and Samuel) or pick up big time free agents (Adalius Thomas). The 20M the Pats save in a move down will allow them to address those issues of resigning or adding a good FA to the team.

    Last edited: Jan 17, 2008
  5. Ochmed Jones

    Ochmed Jones Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

    #12 Jersey

    If the Pats had those 4 guys that were picked at #12 for the past 4 years, I would be very happy.

    #10 - #14 seems like a nice range to take a Gholston or Harvey or maybe even Groves at.
  6. VJCPatriot

    VJCPatriot Pro Bowl Player

    Yup, or one of the premier corners Cason or Mike Jenkins will certainly be available here as well. I'm not as sure about slots 13 and 14, but 10-12 for sure I think you're going to find a very good player.
    Last edited: Jan 17, 2008
  7. ironwasp

    ironwasp Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

    Wow. That's a good find. Not many misses there.
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