The sweet spot in this draft may be at pick #10

[VJCPatriot]

Here is the current draft order:

First Round
1.Miami (1-15)
2. St. Louis (3-13)
3T. Atlanta (4-12)
3T. Kansas City (4-12)
3T. Oakland (4-12)
6. New York Jets (4-12)
7. New England (from San Francisco) (5-11)
_________________
8. Baltimore (5-11)
9. Cincinnati (7-9)
10. New Orleans (7-9)

So basically if the Pats move down to pick #10 they only have to worry about whom Baltimore, Cinci, and NO will pick. And I'm assuming they'd get an assurance from NO they won't take the guy we're targetting at that spot.

Money-wise the difference between the overall contract of the #7 pick and the #10 pick is over 20M dollars. That's a big deal. So if the Pats don't see a must have guy at #7, they are still very likely to get a very good player at #10, and possibly the guy they were targetting all along at HALF the contract price!

Rookie Contract numbers:
7 Minnesota Adrian Peterson RB 6 $40.50 $6.75
8 Atlanta Jamaal Anderson DE 5 $31.00 $6.20
9 Miami Ted Ginn Jr. WR 5 Unknown Unknown $14M guarantees
10 Houston Amobi Okoye DT 6 $15.40 $2.57

Pick Value Chart:
http://www.nfldraftcountdown.com/features/valuechart.html

 

[patchick]

I generally think of the 10-12 range as an ideal talent/value proposition. Take a look at the past 4 drafts:

10 Amobi Okoye Defensive tackle Louisville
11 Patrick Willis Linebacker Ole Miss
12 Marshawn Lynch Running back California

10 Matt Leinart Quarterback Southern California
11 Jay Cutler Quarterback Vanderbilt
12 Haloti Ngata Defensive tackle Oregon

10 Mike Williams Wide receiver Southern California (USC)
11 Demarcus Ware Linebacker Troy
12 Shawne Merriman Linebacker Maryland

10 Dunta Robinson Cornerback South Carolina
11 Ben Roethlisberger Quarterback Miami (OH)
12 Jonathan Vilma Linebacker Miami (FL)

 

[mesoslo]

Here is the current draft order:

And I'm assuming they'd get an assurance from NO they won't take the guy we're targetting at that spot.

you can do that? the NFL allows that? If you say the sweet spot is at 10, and someone good from 3-5 starts to drop, getting closer to 10, the 7th pick will snatch that player from the 10th pick.

The 10th pick saves money, true, but its not like we're the dolphins or jesters.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Very nice list. I like what I'm seeing there.

I generally think of the 10-12 range as an ideal talent/value proposition. Take a look at the past 4 drafts:

10 Amobi Okoye Defensive tackle Louisville
11 Patrick Willis Linebacker Ole Miss
12 Marshawn Lynch Running back California

10 Matt Leinart Quarterback Southern California
11 Jay Cutler Quarterback Vanderbilt
12 Haloti Ngata Defensive tackle Oregon

10 Mike Williams Wide receiver Southern California (USC)
11 Demarcus Ware Linebacker Troy
12 Shawne Merriman Linebacker Maryland

10 Dunta Robinson Cornerback South Carolina
11 Ben Roethlisberger Quarterback Miami (OH)
12 Jonathan Vilma Linebacker Miami (FL)

Why not? I'm assuming that some information has to exchange hands when you're making a trade.
Maybe they don't talk about who they're going to take. I know they do that a lot in the NBA draft, but the NFL draft could be different, who knows for sure?
The Pats don't need to pinch pennies. They manage their cap well.
But the reason you try to manage your cap well is so that you have more money to do things like sign your own guys (Moss and Samuel) or pick up big time free agents (Adalius Thomas). The 20M the Pats save in a move down will allow them to address those issues of resigning or adding a good FA to the team.

you can do that? the NFL allows that? If you say the sweet spot is at 10, and someone good from 3-5 starts to drop, getting closer to 10, the 7th pick will snatch that player from the 10th pick.

The 10th pick saves money, true, but its not like we're the dolphins or jesters.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

If the Pats had those 4 guys that were picked at #12 for the past 4 years, I would be very happy.

#10 - #14 seems like a nice range to take a Gholston or Harvey or maybe even Groves at.

 

[VJCPatriot]

If the Pats had those 4 guys that were picked at #12 for the past 4 years, I would be very happy.

#10 - #14 seems like a nice range to take a Gholston or Harvey or maybe even Groves at.

Yup, or one of the premier corners Cason or Mike Jenkins will certainly be available here as well. I'm not as sure about slots 13 and 14, but 10-12 for sure I think you're going to find a very good player.

 

[ironwasp]

I generally think of the 10-12 range as an ideal talent/value proposition. Take a look at the past 4 drafts:

10 Amobi Okoye Defensive tackle Louisville
11 Patrick Willis Linebacker Ole Miss
12 Marshawn Lynch Running back California

10 Matt Leinart Quarterback Southern California
11 Jay Cutler Quarterback Vanderbilt
12 Haloti Ngata Defensive tackle Oregon

10 Mike Williams Wide receiver Southern California (USC)
11 Demarcus Ware Linebacker Troy
12 Shawne Merriman Linebacker Maryland

10 Dunta Robinson Cornerback South Carolina
11 Ben Roethlisberger Quarterback Miami (OH)
12 Jonathan Vilma Linebacker Miami (FL)

Wow. That's a good find. Not many misses there.