The Sox win despite Theo !

[CMcCartney]

I find this rather disingenuous. When he makes a good signing like Okajima its him being lucky, but signings that don't work out perfectly are disastrous and mean hes a poor GM? A GM can't get credit for getting value out of an unexpected source?

Okajima was a good signing.. but, come on, anyone out there figure him for an All-Star before last season? That's all I'm saying.. I also think Theo overpaid for Drew.. I don't think anyone was close to what the Sox offered him.. And for a guy with an injury history, that's questionable in my opinion..

 

[TomBrady'sGoat]

Maybe I've just missed it, but I've never heard that Henry pushed for Ortiz (I've never really heard of Henry pushing for anybody). Is this verified anywhere? Is this just an excuse people use to not give Theo credit? I'm curious.

As for Lugo and Drew, remember that Damon sucked his first year (year and a half really) in Boston too. It's a little early to judge Theo on those.

 

[patsfanofNC12]

Epstein resigned in October 2005, but was rehired as GM and Executive Vice President on January 24, 2006.

Earth to JCDavey.... The Sox season starts in April and ends in October.

Who's on crack?

From what I have seen of your posts on this topic it looks like you have no idea what you are talking about. I will say that you make one or two valid points, but everything else it total bull. We shouldn't even be having this conversation since we are coming off a WS championship.

 

[cupofjoe1962]

Maybe I've just missed it, but I've never heard that Henry pushed for Ortiz (I've never really heard of Henry pushing for anybody). Is this verified anywhere? Is this just an excuse people use to not give Theo credit? I'm curious.

As for Lugo and Drew, remember that Damon sucked his first year (year and a half really) in Boston too. It's a little early to judge Theo on those.

Henry went to Theo about Ortiz per Steve Buckley (on WEEI & in print).
Henry was also the guy who wanted Arod the most. He is his favorite
player who he wanted as the face of the Red Sox (per Buckley).

Theo's had big plans for Jeremy Giambi who started the season a starter
while Ortiz was a part time player at the start of the 2003 season.

John Henry is a big roto fan who has acknowleged his love of fantasy
baseball. Arod & Ortiz were players on his 2002 roto team.
This has been confirmed by Buckley and Peter Gammons.

 

[cupofjoe1962]

From what I have seen of your posts on this topic it looks like you have no idea what you are talking about. I will say that you make one or two valid points, but everything else it total bull. We shouldn't even be having this conversation since we are coming off a WS championship.

Anybody who would lobby for the Patriots to draft Chris Johnson should
probably stay on the baseball message board.

 

[Foley]

Okajima was a good signing.. but, come on, anyone out there figure him for an All-Star before last season? That's all I'm saying.. I also think Theo overpaid for Drew.. I don't think anyone was close to what the Sox offered him.. And for a guy with an injury history, that's questionable in my opinion..

Of course no one expected him to be an all-star but thats what makes the signing good, and not just luck. When a player exceeds expectations the GM should get credit for signing him, just as when a player struggles the GM should be criticized for signing him.

As far as Drew, he was signed in an offseason that saw Gary Matthews Jr get $50M, Juan Pierre get $44M and Gil Meche get $55M. Considering the market, Drew was not overpaid.

And Drew has been on the DL once in the past 4 years, and that one time was the result of a fastball to the wrist that would have sideline any player. The JD Drew that misses weeks at a time with hamstring pulls and shoulder injuries hasn't been around in a long time.

 

[scout]

Lets cut to the chase, cupofjoe. Without Theo, do the Red Sox have their last two World Series wins?

 

[Bigdogx]

With no Theo, we would not of had schilling, without Theo we would not of traded dead weight nomore for a great couple of pieces that really got us to the ws in 2004. Anyone who thinks Theo is a burden to this red-sox organization is a complete moron, winning 1 championship maybe you can say the stars aligned just right but winning two now makes people who post unintelligent rubbish like this look like a complete idiot! I think a few people need to remember how long of a road it was before 2004, without Theo we would still be waiting most likely!

 

[scout]

With no Theo, we would not of had schilling, without Theo we would not of traded dead weight nomore for a great couple of pieces that really got us to the ws in 2004. Anyone who thinks Theo is a burden to this red-sox organization is a complete moron, winning 1 championship maybe you can say the stars aligned just right but winning two now makes people who post unintelligent rubbish like this look like a complete idiot! I think a few people need to remember how long of a road it was before 2004, without Theo we would still be waiting most likely!

Yea, I know as do almost any true Red Sox fan. But, I just wanted cup of joe to say that the Red Sox would have won a world series without Theo (86 freakin' years).

 

[Real World]

I find this rather disingenuous. When he makes a good signing like Okajima its him being lucky, but signings that don't work out perfectly are disastrous and mean hes a poor GM? A GM can't get credit for getting value out of an unexpected source?

Okajima wasn't signed to be the set up man with a sub 1 ERA for 3/4 of the season. He was really signed to get some lefties out & help Dice-K with his move to America. Granted, Theo does deserve credit for signing him, but I don't think he did it because he thought he'd be this good. He was probably thinking, even hoping, he'd be like a Mike Myers while giving Dice-K a japanese buddy on the team.

Theo isn't a bad GM. Cashman isn't a bad GM. They're just terribly overrated. They each do well with minor league talent, but they're able to spend more money on minor league development than everybody else. Add up the bad contracts & busts that both Cashman and Theo have made, and you'll see lots of similarities.

 

[TomBrady'sGoat]

Okajima wasn't signed to be the set up man with a sub 1 ERA for 3/4 of the season. He was really signed to get some lefties out & help Dice-K with his move to America. Granted, Theo does deserve credit for signing him, but I don't think he did it because he thought he'd be this good. He was probably thinking, even hoping, he'd be like a Mike Myers while giving Dice-K a japanese buddy on the team.

And Lugo and JD Drew weren't signed (and Coco traded for) to vastly unperform. If Theo gets knocked when guys simply underperform (out of Theo's control) then he should be credited when guys like Okajima overperform (also out of his control).

Theo isn't a bad GM. Cashman isn't a bad GM. They're just terribly overrated. They each do well with minor league talent, but they're able to spend more money on minor league development than everybody else. Add up the bad contracts & busts that both Cashman and Theo have made, and you'll see lots of similarities.

Do you think some of that has to do with the expectation to compete every year? They might have to make long-term deals they otherwise wouldn't because they need a player right away (like NY signing Damon).

 

[cupofjoe1962]

Lets cut to the chase, cupofjoe. Without Theo, do the Red Sox have their last two World Series wins?

I have no doubt that the Sox could have won both world series without
Theo as their GM.

The MVP's of the world series.
2004 - Manny Ramirez - Dan Duquette signed
2007 - Mike Lowell - Traded for when Theo was in "time out".
Beckett was the other star of the 2007 playoffs and he was also
traded for when Theo was in "time out".

All I am saying about Theo is I feel his success is based on the Red Sox
budget. If he went to a small market team, I do not think he would have
much success.

A small market team would not put up with giving JD Drew 75 milllion over
5 years.

Why did he give Drew 75 Million when Drew had no other offers?
Drew walked away from 11 million per season over 3 years (33 million).
The Dodgers fans were delighted to see him go. I went to the Dodgers
message board after we signed Drew to see their reaction.

Why not offer Drew 12 million for 3 seasons "just an example" ?
He had no other offers on the table...... Why 5 years & 75 million?

 

[Foley]

Okajima wasn't signed to be the set up man with a sub 1 ERA for 3/4 of the season. He was really signed to get some lefties out & help Dice-K with his move to America. Granted, Theo does deserve credit for signing him, but I don't think he did it because he thought he'd be this good. He was probably thinking, even hoping, he'd be like a Mike Myers while giving Dice-K a japanese buddy on the team.

He had the upside of being dominant. His number in Japan were very similar to Takashi Saito, who has been great since coming from Japan. They couldn't have expected him to have been as dominant as he was, but I doubt they signed him to be a buddy to a player they hadn't even negotiated with yet.

And its been pointed out here several times, if Theo gets chastised for players underperforming, why shouldn't he be equally praised for players overperforming?

Theo isn't a bad GM. Cashman isn't a bad GM. They're just terribly overrated. They each do well with minor league talent, but they're able to spend more money on minor league development than everybody else. Add up the bad contracts & busts that both Cashman and Theo have made, and you'll see lots of similarities.

I'm not saying that Theo is the best GM in baseball, but I just find it silly that people say he is mediocre or that the Sox win despite him. What GMs haven't signed players to bad contracts, or made bad trades or done things that they wish they hadn't done? I can think of 3 GMs (Dombrowski, Towers and maybe Shapiro) that I would rather have than Theo. But those three have still made their fair share of mistakes, just like every other GM in baseball.

Money obviously helps, but there are a lot of GMs out there with big wallets who haven't done anywhere near as well as Theo (Coletti, Hendry, Minaya, Bavasi, Stoneman). Money helps to mask the mistakes, but it takes a lot more than that to fix them.

 

[TomBrady'sGoat]

Another thought: Theo doesn't shy away from the fact that he can afford to absorb bad contracts that some other teams can't. He willingly admits it. This probably leads him to be less risk-adverse than most GMs because the risk is less to him. Why should we judge him using the standard for other GMs?

I have no doubt that the Sox could have won both world series without
Theo as their GM.

The MVP's of the world series.
2004 - Manny Ramirez - Dan Duquette signed
2007 - Mike Lowell - Traded for when Theo was in "time out".
Beckett was the other star of the 2007 playoffs and he was also
traded for when Theo was in "time out".

All I am saying about Theo is I feel his success is based on the Red Sox
budget. If he went to a small market team, I do not think he would have
much success.

A small market team would not put up with giving JD Drew 75 milllion over
5 years.

Why did he give Drew 75 Million when Drew had no other offers?
Drew walked away from 11 million per season over 3 years (33 million).
The Dodgers fans were delighted to see him go. I went to the Dodgers
message board after we signed Drew to see their reaction.

Why not offer Drew 12 million for 3 seasons "just an example" ?
He had no other offers on the table...... Why 5 years & 75 million?

World Series MVP? That's the standard now? The real MVP of the '04 playoffs was Foulke, brought in by Theo. The players with the biggest impacts during the Yankees series (much more important than the WS) were Ortiz, Schilling, and Foulke (none around before Theo showed up). Judging using such small samples is silly, but I can easily make a better argument FOR Theo using your methodology.

As for your obsession with Drew, you're overstating things. It has been one year, a year where Drew greatly underperformed his track record (is Theo to blame for that?). Even if Drew sucks for the rest of his life it's a mistake. All GMs make them.

You also ignore the fact that his ridiculous contract is looking less ridiculous with the passage of time, and could be a bargain in a year or two with the rate of salary inflation. And you have no idea what other offers he had out there. It does a team no good to tell the media if/what they were offering him (because then Gary Matthews or some other player comes calling, saying "you were willing to pay J D Drew $XX million"). Maybe he had no other offers. Maybe he was offered 5/$70M by another team.

 

[Real World]

And Lugo and JD Drew weren't signed (and Coco traded for) to vastly unperform. If Theo gets knocked when guys simply underperform (out of Theo's control) then he should be credited when guys like Okajima overperform (also out of his control).



Do you think some of that has to do with the expectation to compete every year? They might have to make long-term deals they otherwise wouldn't because they need a player right away (like NY signing Damon).

?????????????? Obviously they weren't signed to underperform, but both of those players were serious question marks before they signed. EVERYBODY shook their head when Drew opted out of the $33 million he had left on his Dodgers deal, and when he signed here for $75 million, people were dumbfounded. Lugo didn't have a team that wanted him as a SS. They wanted him to move to the outfield. Theo gets credit for Okajima, but everything is relative.

Do you think some of that has to do with the expectation to compete every year? They might have to make long-term deals they otherwise wouldn't because they need a player right away (like NY signing Damon).

NY had to sign Damon. They had Bubba Crosby & Bernie Williams in centerfield. Expectations or not, a GM's job is to win, or to have a plan to get their team in a position to win a World Series. I'd much prefer to be the GM of the Sox or Yankees, than any other team in the league. You can take chances and make mistakes with either team, that you can't with anyone else. You could argue that the Damon signing is an example of what I'm talking about. Cashman wasn't prepared for the inevidable decline and departure of Bernie Williams. That's a GM's job. He should have signed Beltran a couple of years ago when he could have, or had a replacement in place ahead of time. You don't exacerbate problems by further restricting yourself to mediocre players with longer deals, at larger dollars. The Yankees now have 3 left handed hitters, Matsui, Damon, & Giambi, for two spots, LF & DH. The cost? $13, $15, & $22 million. Cashman & Theo are mediocre GM's with lots and lots of resources at their disposal.

 

[Real World]

He had the upside of being dominant. His number in Japan were very similar to Takashi Saito, who has been great since coming from Japan. They couldn't have expected him to have been as dominant as he was, but I doubt they signed him to be a buddy to a player they hadn't even negotiated with yet.

And its been pointed out here several times, if Theo gets chastised for players underperforming, why shouldn't he be equally praised for players overperforming?

I'm not saying that Theo is the best GM in baseball, but I just find it silly that people say he is mediocre or that the Sox win despite him. What GMs haven't signed players to bad contracts, or made bad trades or done things that they wish they hadn't done? I can think of 3 GMs (Dombrowski, Towers and maybe Shapiro) that I would rather have than Theo. But those three have still made their fair share of mistakes, just like every other GM in baseball.

Money obviously helps, but there are a lot of GMs out there with big wallets who haven't done anywhere near as well as Theo (Coletti, Hendry, Minaya, Bavasi, Stoneman). Money helps to mask the mistakes, but it takes a lot more than that to fix them.

C'mon Foley. Numbers in Japan? How's Kei Igawa and his Japanese numbers working out for the Yankees? Okajima was signed for $1.5 million over two. When he got here people didn't know if he'd be here or in Pawtucket. The guy throws 85 mph. They were hoping he'd be a Mike Myers type, and would help Dice K with his transition. Obviously Theo gets credit for signing him. They could have signed any japanese pitcher, but they chose Oki which is a credit to them. Still though, it's no different than giving the right balance of credit and luck to drafting Tom Brady. They scouted and chose him over whomever was left, but they certainly got lucky.

Lots of GM's are brutal. The difference is that they can afford to be brutal once or twice, while guys like Theo & Cashman can be brutal that many times each off season. Look, I think Cashman is worse than Theo, so this isn't a Yankee fan trying to trash the Sox for the fun of it. They've each made some good moves, and each has built up a good farm system. However, they've laid some serious eggs in the process.

 

[Foley]

C'mon Foley. Numbers in Japan? How's Kei Igawa and his Japanese numbers working out for the Yankees? Okajima was signed for $1.5 million over two. When he got here people didn't know if he'd be here or in Pawtucket. The guy throws 85 mph. They were hoping he'd be a Mike Myers type, and would help Dice K with his transition. Obviously Theo gets credit for signing him. They could have signed any japanese pitcher, but they chose Oki which is a credit to them. Still though, it's no different than giving the right balance of credit and luck to drafting Tom Brady. They scouted and chose him over whomever was left, but they certainly got lucky.

I'm just talking about his upside not their expectations. Obviously they didn't expect him to be an all-star, but it wasn't out of the question that he'd be an above average set-up guy. Generally Japanese relievers have translated pretty well (Saito, Sasaki, Hasegawa), while starters have had more of a struggle (Irabu, Matsuzaka, Igawa). So yes, numbers in Japan are important. Luck plays a big part in every move that a GM makes, but selecting Okajima consisted of a bit more than randomly picking some guy and hoping he'd be a LOOGY (despite no real L/R split in Japan). That may not what be you are saying, but its certainly the sentiment of many critics.

Lots of GM's are brutal. The difference is that they can afford to be brutal once or twice, while guys like Theo & Cashman can be brutal that many times each off season. Look, I think Cashman is worse than Theo, so this isn't a Yankee fan trying to trash the Sox for the fun of it. They've each made some good moves, and each has built up a good farm system. However, they've laid some serious eggs in the process.

What you're basically saying is that if Theo makes a mistake hes a mediocre GM. Unless every move he makes works out perfectly he'll be a mediocre GM because you can always point to the payroll and say he had an unfair advantage and was able to hide his mistakes. Theo has not made a disproportionate number of mistakes compared to any other GM in baseball, and unless you can find 10-15 GMs better than Theo, he is far better than mediocre.

And I never believed this was a Yankees/Red Sox thing. Which is why I was initially replying to the Red Sox fan bashing Theo, not the Yankee fan.

 

[TomBrady'sGoat]

?????????????? Obviously they weren't signed to underperform, but both of those players were serious question marks before they signed. EVERYBODY shook their head when Drew opted out of the $33 million he had left on his Dodgers deal, and when he signed here for $75 million, people were dumbfounded. Lugo didn't have a team that wanted him as a SS. They wanted him to move to the outfield. Theo gets credit for Okajima, but everything is relative.

The problems with Drew and Lugo was that neither was viewed as being worth how much they were paid (and Drew's injury history). They were called overpaid, not bad players.

No one, not even the most skeptical, predicted them to OPS+ 105 and 65, respectively. A skeptical (and below career norms) prediction for each would have been 115 and 90, and the real problem is that both far underperformed those.

NY had to sign Damon. They had Bubba Crosby & Bernie Williams in centerfield. Expectations or not, a GM's job is to win, or to have a plan to get their team in a position to win a World Series. I'd much prefer to be the GM of the Sox or Yankees, than any other team in the league. You can take chances and make mistakes with either team, that you can't with anyone else. You could argue that the Damon signing is an example of what I'm talking about. Cashman wasn't prepared for the inevidable decline and departure of Bernie Williams. That's a GM's job. He should have signed Beltran a couple of years ago when he could have, or had a replacement in place ahead of time. You don't exacerbate problems by further restricting yourself to mediocre players with longer deals, at larger dollars. The Yankees now have 3 left handed hitters, Matsui, Damon, & Giambi, for two spots, LF & DH. The cost? $13, $15, & $22 million. Cashman & Theo are mediocre GM's with lots and lots of resources at their disposal.

If NY doesn't have to compete every year they don't pick up Pavano one year, Damon another year, trade for Abreau, re-sign Matsui, and suddenly find themselves with a bunch of bad contracts. The moves they make to compete in the current year add up over the life of the deals. A GM of another team can take a year or two off, not signing any shortsighted "now" contracts while selling at the deadline to either acquire prospects or dump bad contracts.

That was exactly my point with Damon. They had to sign him (to hell with the future consequences) because they had to compete in 2006. The problem is that they have to compete every year, and therefore make deals like that every year. Those deals add up to a bloated payroll.

The big payroll is a huge advantage and allows them to make these deals to compete every year, but you can't judge them by comparing them to teams that don't have to compete every year. It's much easier to compete on a budget when you can sell at the deadline and not have to sign big contracts to compete now during down years.

 

[Real World]

I'm just talking about his upside not their expectations. Obviously they didn't expect him to be an all-star, but it wasn't out of the question that he'd be an above average set-up guy. Generally Japanese relievers have translated pretty well (Saito, Sasaki, Hasegawa), while starters have had more of a struggle (Irabu, Matsuzaka, Igawa). So yes, numbers in Japan are important. Luck plays a big part in every move that a GM makes, but selecting Okajima consisted of a bit more than randomly picking some guy and hoping he'd be a LOOGY (despite no real L/R split in Japan). That may not what be you are saying, but its certainly the sentiment of many critics.

What you're basically saying is that if Theo makes a mistake hes a mediocre GM. Unless every move he makes works out perfectly he'll be a mediocre GM because you can always point to the payroll and say he had an unfair advantage and was able to hide his mistakes. Theo has not made a disproportionate number of mistakes compared to any other GM in baseball, and unless you can find 10-15 GMs better than Theo, he is far better than mediocre.

And I never believed this was a Yankees/Red Sox thing. Which is why I was initially replying to the Red Sox fan bashing Theo, not the Yankee fan.

The name 10-15 better is entirely subjective. Also, the playing field isn't remotely level. Theo is mediocre because he's made lots of high profile signings that have tanked, or have been shipped out of town, with cash, which very few GM's, like maybe one other, can do. I'm not saying Theo is awful (see Jon Daniels, Texas). I'm simply saying that he's average. When you consider the advantage guys like he & Cashman have, and then analyze the overall quality of their moves, that's the conclusion I come to.

 

[Real World]

The problems with Drew and Lugo was that neither was viewed as being worth how much they were paid (and Drew's injury history). They were called overpaid, not bad players.

No one, not even the most skeptical, predicted them to OPS+ 105 and 65, respectively. A skeptical (and below career norms) prediction for each would have been 115 and 90, and the real problem is that both far underperformed those.

Look at both players' careers, and tell me that you're better of with Lugo at SS than Renteria. It's not even close. Now, aside from the fact that Lugo is an inferior player to ER, you have the added atrocity of paying $12 million more for Lugo, at a years longer service, since the Sox paid that sum to ship ER out of town after one season, while signing Lugo for 4 more. There is no way to spin that. As for Drew, his career speaks for itself. He's in no way, shape, or form a 5 year commitment player, at $14 million per. He's a decent player, but those figures are ridiculous for his histroy. How many teams can do that for a #7 hitter in their lineup? Cashman & Theo can do that, other GM's really can't. Don't get me wrong, Drew has skills and is a good ML player. He's just not worth what he got, and only teams like the Sox/Yanks have the luxury of signing them without any real recourse.

If NY doesn't have to compete every year they don't pick up Pavano one year, Damon another year, trade for Abreau, re-sign Matsui, and suddenly find themselves with a bunch of bad contracts. The moves they make to compete in the current year add up over the life of the deals. A GM of another team can take a year or two off, not signing any shortsighted "now" contracts while selling at the deadline to either acquire prospects or dump bad contracts.

That was exactly my point with Damon. They had to sign him (to hell with the future consequences) because they had to compete in 2006. The problem is that they have to compete every year, and therefore make deals like that every year. Those deals add up to a bloated payroll.

The big payroll is a huge advantage and allows them to make these deals to compete every year, but you can't judge them by comparing them to teams that don't have to compete every year. It's much easier to compete on a budget when you can sell at the deadline and not have to sign big contracts to compete now during down years.

You're missing the point entirely. Teams like the Sox & Yankees don't have any bad contracts. To me they're terrible deals, but to them they're not since they just write a check and move them along to someone else. This past offseason was the first time Cashman made a smart play. He didn't trade Phil Hughes for Santana. That's a GM's job. How does Billy Beane compete every year? How does Atlanta do it? Minnesota? Do you think any of those teams can afford to spend $70 million on a #6/7 hitter?