The Seattle Pick

[JoeSixPat]

I'm thinking the pick winds up being 21... gut feeling more than anything else... but the draft value difference between 21 and 24 isn't all that huge on the value chart anyway so its not a huge deal.

 

[BelichickFan]

I'm thinking the pick winds up being 21... gut feeling more than anything else... but the draft value difference between 21 and 24 isn't all that huge on the value chart anyway so its not a huge deal.

I don't give a crap about the draft chart. You never know how the draft will go. Would Wilfork have made it to 24 for us as opposed to 21 ? If a QB is there a team wants to trade up for, what if the team at 21 makes the trade leaving us out in the cold at 24. In terms of pure value it's not huge - maybe a 4th round pick. But in terms of potential opportunity, every couple of slots can be huge.

Besides, this is the pick for The Twig, I want it as high as possible . . . just because :rocker:

 

[Fanfrom1960]

Here was the pertinent order going into this week :

17. Atlanta Falcons(7-6) .458
18. New York Jets(7-6) .474
19. Philadelphia Eagles(7-6) .490
20. New York Giants(7-6) .490
21. Kansas City Chiefs(7-6) .500
22. Denver Broncos(7-6) .536
23. New England(f/ SEA) (8-5) .427
24. Dallas Cowboys(8-5) .448
25. Jacksonville Jaguars(8-5) .536
26. Cincinnatti Bengals(8-5) .542

All those 7-6 teams can bump Seattle up a spot if they win, Seattle loses the SoS tiebreaker to EVERYONE. The only tiebreaker they win is that they pick after all non playoff teams with the same record so every loss is important.

Oh, Seattle plays San Diego next week

B-fan, thanks, now I know who to root for, at least wrt the pick, and root for Cinci doubly on Monday night 12/18!

 

[BelichickFan]

B-fan, thanks, now I know who to root for, at least wrt the pick, and root for Cinci doubly on Monday night 12/18!

Yeah, the bottom line is for all of those 7-6 teams, if they win on Sunday they're tied with Seattle but only those making the playoffs would pick lower - however with Seattle likely to lose next week vs. SD, any of those 7-6 teams that win this week and next (and there's some decent teams there, some should do that) will move below Seattle heading into the last week regardless of playoff status. So if some of those 7-6 teams can get to 10-6, or even 9-7 if Seattle loses @ TB, we really could end up looking at 18-19. The KILLER was SF losing last week to GB - if they hadn't they'd have had a real chance to win the division instead Seattle still has a magic number of 1 to win it.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

I think the best thing about the Seattle pick, regardless of where it falls, is that DB was not worth it. He is their 3rd receiver and only seems to get a couple of balls his way per game. He also suffered a wicked hit (on which the defender was flagged for a 15 yd. helmet to helmet hit) last night.

It was a long term deal, so that that may change his value going forward, but for now that #1 looks like a steal.

I loved the hit and thought the flag was a typical Polian tiny testes rule application, there was no helmet to helmet as shown on the replay, the only way they could have applied the rule was the judgement call of a defenseless receiver, which I'm not too enamored with - let hitters hit.

 

[MTaylorJ1]

Yeah, the bottom line is for all of those 7-6 teams, if they win on Sunday they're tied with Seattle but only those making the playoffs would pick lower - however with Seattle likely to lose next week vs. SD, any of those 7-6 teams that win this week and next (and there's some decent teams there, some should do that) will move below Seattle heading into the last week regardless of playoff status. So if some of those 7-6 teams can get to 10-6, or even 9-7 if Seattle loses @ TB, we really could end up looking at 18-19. The KILLER was SF losing last week to GB - if they hadn't they'd have had a real chance to win the division instead Seattle still has a magic number of 1 to win it.

The GB/SF game was a killer, but its not completely out of the question if TB can upset Seattle at home. SF has Arizona (at home) and Denver (on the road, but if they were eliminated they might be a dead team walking).

How many times have we seen a team with a playoff spot on the line lose to someone with nothing to lose on the last day of the season. That scenario would be sweet.

 

[scout]

You mean 23rd?

1. Detroit Lions(2-11) .516
2. Oakland Raiders(2-11) .547
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers(3-10) .557
4. Arizona Cardinals(4-9) .505
5. Washington Redskins(4-9) .516
6. Houston Texans(4-9) .521
7. Cleveland Browns(4-9) .531
8. St. Louis Rams(5-8).464
9. San Fransisco 49ers(5-8) .484
10. Green Bay Packers(5-8) .495
11. Minnestoa Vikings(6-7) .464
12. Carolina Panthers(6-7) .484
13. Miami Dolphins(6-7) .526
14. Pittsburgh Steelers( 6-7) .533
15. Buffalo Bills(6-7) .563
16. Tennessee Titans(6-7) .567
17. Atlanta Falcons(7-6) .458
18. New York Jets(7-6) .474
19. Philadelphia Eagles(7-6) .490
20. New York Giants(7-6) .490
21. Kansas City Chiefs(7-6) .500
22. Denver Broncos(7-6) .536
23. New England(f/ SEA) (8-5) .427
24. Dallas Cowboys(8-5) .448
25. Jacksonville Jaguars(8-5) .536
26. Cincinnatti Bengals(8-5) .542

Schedules starting with the Vikes (6-7): Jets @, at GB, St. Louis @;
Panthers (6-7): Pittsburgh@, at Atlanta, @ NO;
Miami (6-7): at Bills, Jets @, @ Indy
Pittsburgh (6-7) @ Carolina, Baltimore@, @Cincy;
Buffalo (6-7) Miami @, Tennessee@, @ Baltimore;
Tennessee (6-7)Jacksonville @, @Bills, NE @;
Atlanta (7-6) Dallas@, Panthers @, @Eagles;
NY Jets (7-6) @ Vikes, @ Miami, Oakland @;
Eagles (7-6)@ Giants,@Dallas, Atlanta @;
NY Giants (7-6) Philly @, NO @, @ Washington;
Denver (7-6) @ Ariz., Cincy @, SF @;
Seattle ( 8-6)SD @, at TB.
Dallas (8-5) @ Atlanta, Philly @, Detroit @;
Jacksonville (8-5) @ Titans, NE @, @KC
Cincy(8-5) @ Indy, at Denver, Pittsburgh @;
Yo figure: Seattle ends up with 7 losses and outside chance of 8. Lets go with 9-7. You hope that Cincy, Jags, and Dallas win 2 of 3 and are out of the equation. Maybe the Jags don't succeed. Five teams with 6 losses, Atlanta, Jets, Eagles, Giants, and Denver. Three of these teams play each other giving an automatic loss to one, and likely two losses to Philly. Excluding tie breakers, these teams need to win out. The Jets might be the only team which is schedule-capable of this. The six 6-7 teams would have to win out while Seattle loses to SD and the Bucs. Hopefully, I didn't error on this material, but either way, figure we will get Seattle's pick which will be 24th, with an outside chance of 23.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Another reason I've been rooting for the Jets lately. Every game they and the hated Phins win weakens all their draft picks. If the Jets win out and we drop 2 of 3 we DESERVE to miss the playoffs and The Puffin's team deserves to go (ack!). Meanwhile it's a long shot but the Jets could indirectly help us with the Seattle pick by winning out as you cited.

I see the Pats going to the show at 11-5, given all the limping wounded.

 

[mgcolby]

Wow after looking at that I can see a big cluster of 9-7 teams. Fortunately a few of them are in the NFC and could make the playoffs. So lets say 8-8 is the record for the final NFC WC and the Hawks finish 9-7, they should have the worst SoS and end up with the 22nd pick.

 

[Bruschi 3:16]

Seattle still has to play San Diego, so they may be looking at 9-7 overall. Awesome trade considering how bad Branch has been.

 

[JoeSixPat]

I don't give a crap about the draft chart. You never know how the draft will go. Would Wilfork have made it to 24 for us as opposed to 21 ? If a QB is there a team wants to trade up for, what if the team at 21 makes the trade leaving us out in the cold at 24. In terms of pure value it's not huge - maybe a 4th round pick. But in terms of potential opportunity, every couple of slots can be huge.

Besides, this is the pick for The Twig, I want it as high as possible . . . just because :rocker:

Doesn't make a difference whether you're 5 picks higher or lower if you don't know what to do with it... plenty of GMs have wasted top 20 picks while lower picks have turned into gems...

Heck, even BB has missed out on a few good players here and there

But I'm stil confident we'll have a good player whether its 21 or 24 - or that the pick will be packaged as a trade...

 

[spacecrime]

Doesn't make a difference whether you're 5 picks higher or lower if you don't know what to do with it... plenty of GMs have wasted top 20 picks while lower picks have turned into gems....

Regardless of how badly or how well teams pick, you are better off picking five spots earlier than five spots later.

 

[patsox23]

plenty of GMs have wasted top 20 picks while lower picks have turned into gems...

Heck, even BB has missed out on a few good players here and there.

Not in the 1st round, not for the Pats. Is Branch's absence hurting us this year? Definitely. From April 2007 on, though, we'll have a no-brainer STARTER at lower bank than Deion, at a time when we really need an infusion of youth at LB and in the secondary. We can land a WR for less who will get it done. And CJ deserves more than one year to prove himself.

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

As of this week, the pick now sits at 20.

The pick could still be as high as 31 or 32 if Seattle makes the SB.

If somehow Seattle loses the last two: At San Diego and At Tampa (very probable) and San Fran wins out: Home vs Arizona and then At Denver, San Fran would win the West and the pick could actually get as low as #9 (that assumes at least one more win from all of the 7-7 teams and two wins from some of the current 6-8 teams (some of them play each other, so it is impossible for all of them to win out). Seattle has the worse SOS in the league so they would pick ahead of everyone else who is 8-8 (unless of they make the playoffs at 8-8 which they can easily do if San Fran loses at game and they lose two).

 

[VJCPatriot]

Alright let's have Seattle lose out the rest of their games! Loss to the Bolts is pretty much assured and hopefully they will be reeling and packing it in so we get as high a pick as possible!!

 

[scout]

Hopefully, Tampa is upbeat with their play against Chicago. Rattay looked really good and Alstott looked rejuvenator. Plus, there will be many players looking to make the team versus Seattle players thinking we were just playing in the Superbowl and now we really suck. I would be thrilled at a mid- teen pick.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Since someone talked about this, I think it's technically possible--highly unlikely, but nevertheless, technically possible--that Seattle's pick could be in the 9-17 range. What's scary is that this doesn't require dozens of implausible results to happen (a few, certainly, but not by any means the majority of games).

This is one way the results could work out:

2-14: DET, OAK
4-12: TB, ARI
5-11: CLE, WAS, HOU
6-10: MIN
8-8: SEA, CAR, SF, MIA, STL, GB, BUF, ATL, JAX
9-7: TEN, KC, NYG, PIT, PHI, NYJ, DEN, CIN, NO
10-6: DAL
11-5: NE, BAL, IND
13-3: CHI
14-2: SD