The reverse superstar theory

[Sicilian]

So, for those of you who follow hockey, Barry Melrose (who, love him or hate him, has been involved in every form of hockey for decades) came up with what he called the Reverse Superstar Theory. Basically, it unfolds like this:

A pivotal player on your team goes down to injury. Knowing there's a huge hole in the lineup now, every other player subconsciously fights just a little bit harder to try to make up for the absence, and in doing so the overall team gets better. Conversely, when that superstar returns, there's a psychological tendency to "relax", knowing that the talent is back, and the overall team gets worse.

Now, I'm NOT saying we're a better team without Wes, absolutely not. Just that we CAN be better, if certain people can up their play and give us their very best football over the next month (hopefully):

1) Julian Edelman - The obvious one, he's replacing Welker's role in the offense.

2) Randy Moss - It won't be enough to draw double coverage now, he's going to have to beat it more often now too.

3) Ben Watson/Chris Baker - Hopefully a healthy O-Line means these guys can get out on pass routes a bit more.

4) Tom Brady - I hate asking more of this guy, but it all starts with him really.

5) The RB's - Not only by carrying the rock, but through an improved role in the short passing game, screens and dump offs, etc.

6) The defense - Finding a way to get more turnovers will help take pressure off the offense, through return TDs or just better field position.

That's six people/units who we have seen play better in the past than they have this year, and who's game COULD be elevated on any given week. We don't need all of them to suddenly play like gangbusters to make up for Welker, just a couple each game, and we'll be fine.

 

[BradyManny]

I think it comes down to #4. Brady is going to have to carry this team and play at as high a level as he's ever played, despite injuries. Moss can be neutralized by 2 defenders, no matter how good he is. Brady is just going to have to find other weapons, and put it in places the defense can't get it, whether the receiver has separation or not. It will be a lot like 2006 - and hey, we almost won it all that year.

 

[signbabybrady]

Interesting theory.

sort of related but just my thoughts on how to overcome the injury.


The key here is that Moss is the #1 guy and Welker the 2 so Its not like Defenses can change their approach to defending us much. They will still have to give tons of attention to Moss leaving more open underneath the difference is where in the past Brady barely needed to get past his second option because it was Welker he will need to find his 3rd and fourth reads now because Edelman wont get open as often as Welker but that just means someone else will get a better chance not that Moss wont create the same space underneath he did before Welkers injury.

I mean lets face it there is a reason why the TEs barely see the ball in the passing game it isn't just leaving them back to protect....Its that with about 200 (more than half) completions going Moss and Welkers way there are not that many compeltions left.

This will add pressure to the O-line to give Brady split seconds more to find the third and fourth reads but as the premise of this thread states if the whole steps up than the individual can be overcome.

 

[Lockdown06]

It's also known as the Ewing Theory (named for Patrick Ewing), Bill Simmons talks about it all the time.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

You can sort of relate that theory to 2001. Even though the replacement ended up being better than the 'superstar', which I'm not expecting this time, everyone else did step up collectively. Even with Brady in for Bledsoe, we don't win the super bowl with the rest of the team playing the way we did in the first 2 weeks that year.

 

[Stokes]

It's also known as the Ewing Theory (named for Patrick Ewing), Bill Simmons talks about it all the time.

Right, it was coined by one of his readers (Dave Cirillo or something?) and has been used in relation to the Pats before - Bledsoe going down in 2001. One of the main tenets of the Ewing theory though is that the "Ewing" is actually either somewhat or grossly overrated, not the case with Welker.

 

[Sicilian]

Right, it was coined by one of his readers (Dave Cirillo or something?) and has been used in relation to the Pats before - Bledsoe going down in 2001. One of the main tenets of the Ewing theory though is that the "Ewing" is actually either somewhat or grossly overrated, not the case with Welker.

Right, but Melrose's theory I heard back in the mid 90's I think, and isn't really even about the superstar himself. It's more of a collective rallying of the team because everyone takes it on themselves to play just a little bit better.

Obviously, in the long run this doesn't work, because no one can keep up 110% for a whole season (or even half or a quarter of one sometimes). But for a short stretch after the injury, everyone on the team steps up just a little bit is the general thinking I believe.

 

[tobias funke]

Don't forget a coaching staff that is going to have to step way up to deliver a good offensive scheme that doesn't rely on Wes Welker picking up 70% of the first downs in the game.

 

[Sicilian]

Don't forget a coaching staff that is going to have to step way up to deliver a good offensive scheme that doesn't rely on Wes Welker picking up 70% of the first downs in the game.

While I agree that coaching is going to be a big key to replacing Wes, I'm not sure the overall gameplan is going to change that much. Edelman, though no where near as talented and experienced as Wes, plays the same role and does it very well. As someone mentioned in another thread, all that's really going to change is Brady will have to check is 3rd and higher options more often because Edelman won't be open as many times as Wes. So often now he doesn't make it past Wes because honestly, if he's open why not throw it to him?

 

[Schmo]

Compare the feeling you get this year to the one you had in 2007. I know we're just fans, but in 07 I felt like a superstar. Overconfident and expecting a win every game. This year I get the feeling that we have to fight every game, and I like it. If I can feel this as a fan, I'm sure that the team certainly has a feeling of emergence.