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The Recession is over...

Discussion in 'Political Discussion' started by DarrylS, Sep 20, 2010.

  1. DarrylS

    DarrylS PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Not an economist, and do not pretend to be one.. but an interesting take from the folks who determine whether we are in one or not.. they say we are not.

    Business Cycle Dating Committee, National Bureau of Economic Research

     
  2. PatsWSB47

    PatsWSB47 Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    #12 Jersey

    I've heard the same thing but I don't think most people hit in the turn down are economists either and therefore the report is meaningless to them.......except for this part:

     
    Last edited: Sep 20, 2010
  3. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign Hall of Fame Poster

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    #18 Jersey

    I wonder if the talking heads in Washington actually believe this news will change the way people are spending....because I can tell you, it won't (even if they believe it will).

    Personally, I do not believe the recession has ended and it is my opinion that we are actually in a depression that will continue for another 3+ years. But that's my opinion.
     
  4. Real World

    Real World Moderator Staff Member

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    From a technical, statistical, numerical, etc. position, I'd think this is perfectly understandable. The problem is when you have anemic growth, like we have now, it doesn't compute to being a recession, but it still feels like one.
     
  5. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign Hall of Fame Poster

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    #18 Jersey

    “The committee decided that any future downturn of the economy would be a new recession and not a continuation of the recession that began in December 2007.”

    So if we have a double-dip recession, the NBR has decided it would be recorded as a NEW recession and not part of what is continuing today? What a joke! If we have a down-turn in January, I guarantee everyone it's part of the same problem we've had since 2007 and NOT some new cause.

    And "IF" 3 years from now, our economy still isn't growing, the reality is, we'll have been in a continuous depression.

    It just amazes me how much agencies like this one and our gov't make an effort to make things look better than they are. In other words, they lie to calm the masses like we're a bunch of idiots and they're the "wicked smaht" ones. Believe me, that's the furthest thing from the truth!

    Also, from the NBR....

    "At this year’s pace of an average of 82,000 new jobs a month, it will take at least eight more years to create the 8 million positions lost during the recession. And that does not even allow for population growth."

    If this were to happen, that means we'd have an unemployment rate of 8% or more all the way to 2020!

    BUT NO WORRIES....THE RECESSION IS OVER FOLKS!!
     
    Last edited: Sep 20, 2010
  6. Wolfpack

    Wolfpack Banned

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    This is one of those things that we've all known about for a year but someone wrote a news article about it, so I guess some people need to act like it is news when it was already well known for quite some time.

    The technical definition of a recession is 2 or more consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, with the recession being considered over when the GDP has positive growth. The following chart shows how, technically speaking, the recession ended in June 2009. Why anyone considers this brand new information in September 2010 is beyond me. Of course, if you tell any of our 10% unemployed "don't worry, the recession's over!" then you could probably expect to get popped in the kisser.

    The chart also shows that unless things turn around rapidly, we will again be back in the technical definition of a recession by the end of the year (i.e. the "double dip").

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Sep 20, 2010
  7. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign Hall of Fame Poster

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    #18 Jersey

    And of course this agency fails to note that the GDP was ARTIFICIALLY inflated with the mega-economic stimulus. Anyone can pump 100's of BILLIONS of printed money into an economy and give it the "Illusion" of growth. But that's all it was, an ILLUSION.
     
  8. Wolfpack

    Wolfpack Banned

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    I agree. That's why I feel is it silly to say "hey, folks, there's no more recession!" when all we have seen is a situation where the GDP has been temporarily jury-rigged by scotch tape and bubble gum while over 1 in 10 citizens still can't find work.
     
  9. khayos

    khayos In the Starting Line-Up

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    If it's been over for 14 months, maybe the President's policies really are that bad?
     
  10. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign Hall of Fame Poster

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    #18 Jersey

    Man, here we are 3 years from this post and I'm loving this economic BOOM we're in!:rolleyes:
     
  11. Nunchucks

    Nunchucks In the Starting Line-Up

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    The word recession carries a specific definition. As for the "boom" you speak of...we may not be booming, but we are recovering. An economic boom would be a little concerning, as it would carry the high probability of another bubble.

    We are improving a little bit more everyday.
     
  12. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign Hall of Fame Poster

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    #18 Jersey

    It's been 5 years since the great collapse.

    Maybe you're not aware that you don't need 2 consecutive quarters of declining GDP to be in a recession?

    Also, the great depression saw many quarters of GDP growth....very small growth, but growth.

    Do you FEEL like we're out of recession/depression? Do you think people in Europe feel like it's over?

    Or can we ask the more than 10% of Americans who are still unemployed? Yes, we have to count those who have "dropped out of the labor force".
     
  13. Nunchucks

    Nunchucks In the Starting Line-Up

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    Yeah, we are snail pacing it upward, but that is not a recession. Words have meaning, you cannot call a dog a cat because it suits you to do so.
     
  14. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign Hall of Fame Poster

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    #18 Jersey

    I guess if you believe gov't economic reports, things look better.

    I don't believe them myself.
     
  15. Nunchucks

    Nunchucks In the Starting Line-Up

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    Sure, you can choose to believe whatever you like. It is more than government reports that show that things are improving.

    I am not here to convince you that the sun rises in the east and sets in the west. You have to decide whether that is true for yourself.
     
  16. DocHoliday

    DocHoliday In the Starting Line-Up

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    This is the new normal. Jobs aren't cutting back.

    Employers aren't too 'afraid of the economy' to hire you back, they've been without you for so long they've figured out how to eliminate your position entirely.
     
  17. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign Hall of Fame Poster

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    #18 Jersey

    You choose to have a positive outlook on the numbers you see, I get that.

    But how good or bad is our nation's current economic today? What is Europe's current economic condition as well as the global outlook?

    How long do you think it will be until our economy become "normal" healthy? Until we get to true full employment levels again (4-5% unemployment)?

    We can get a "little better each day" for years Nunchucks. But 5 years after The Crash, I'm thinking we should be doing better than that.

    When was the last time it took 5 to recover from a recession? Can you answer that question?

    Never mind the fact that we still haven't reached the point we can say we've recovered from the last recession.
     
  18. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign Hall of Fame Poster

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    #18 Jersey

    If it's the new normal...it is what it is...if it's not, then we're in a depression.

    You're right...and to employers who think like that, my middle finger is high in the air just for you!
     
  19. Nunchucks

    Nunchucks In the Starting Line-Up

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    When was the last time we had a recession like the one we had? Can you answer that question?

    We destroyed the world economy for gods sake, this isn't something you just magically fix. Nevermind the fact that the House has done NOTHING to aid in fixing the economy. You cannot just sit there and whine about why things aren't getting better fast enough when congress has done nothing to try and fix the situation.

    What do you think is going to happen? What is Obama supposed to do to fix it? Congress isn't doing anything but trying to repeal ObamaCare.

    Our infrastructure is falling apart around us, we need some jobs bills to get that stuff fixed, yet another vote to repeal ObamaCare, it is silliness.

    Oh, this is a good idea, lets just shut down the government for a couple weeks and take 24 billion out of the economy for no good reason and then whine about things not getting better fast enough.

    Notice a trend?
     
  20. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign Hall of Fame Poster

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    #18 Jersey



    First of all, never answer a question with a question.:rolleyes:

    But the answer to your question is, the Great Depression and the crash of 1929 was the last time we had one like this.




    Governments aren't supposed to "Fix" the economy. Artificially stimulating our economy is what got us into this mess so doing the same thing again won't fix it.

    I would be ok with cutting militarty spending enough to fund an infrastructure program to update roads, bridges, etc.. But 2 points on that....

    1. It can't be a permanent program and must have an end date.
    2. It can't fix the economy.

    No gov't program ever fixed our economy in our history. Alll they do is provide a bridge between depression/recession and recovery.

    But since you stated we're already in recovery, why do we need to do anything? Do you want to speed up the natural process? Sometimes I think we're better off doing things right instead of "right now". Why not allow natural economic forces to correct themselves?

    There is always an inherent danger when you "stimulate" the economy as any and ALL programs must have an end date...they can't become a permanent part of our government.
     

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