midwestpatsfan
Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job
- Joined
- Sep 15, 2004
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I know, this is about the 100th new thread on the Wes Welker trade that has popped up in the last few days, but everyone needs to look at this trade from a larger perspective.
Most people are upset that we are giving up a 2nd round pick, now that a 7th has been added, even more people are upset. Why? The real reason is because of the unknown or "the grass is greener" effect.
With Welker, you have a basic idea of what he brings to the team, but a 2nd round pick "could" be that next great player that becomes a superstar player that everyteam wants and the Patriots were able to grab. Right now, that 2nd pick seems so much better than Welker because we don't know what or who that player will be. This is a nice fantasy until week 1 of the season when that player is most likely sitting on the bench or playing a very limited role. Welker, while not a superstar by any means, could become one of the most productive players on the offense for us, and he has a track record to prove that. I see posts now with people being upset with the 7th rounder now too, but realistically the player chosen their has little to no chance of making this team, but again, the thought of the unkown and "potential" gets in the way of reality.
Most of us like to applaud our front office and coach for being brilliant when it comes to the draft, but they know better than anyone that it is a crapshoot and if you get 1 or 2 guys out of each draft that can really contribute on a consistent basis, then they have won.
The second part of the equation is not revealed yet, but will be soon. We all know that we are going to be given potentially 4 comp. picks depending on how the league divies them up. If we can squeeze a 3rd out of them, great, if not, we most likely will get a pick in each of the day 2 rounds (4,5,6,7). That is 4 picks that the Patriots must use. They cannot be traded or packaged to move up. That means we are looking at a total of anywhere between 8 to 10 picks still, even after this trade.
We all know that if they do indeed use both first rounders they will make this team, as well as the 3rd rounder we currently have and the 3rd if we were to get one as a comp. pick. That is 3 to 4 guaranteed spots for guys who may not necessarily contribute a whole lot this first year. If the patriots had not traded for Welker, who we know will contribute this year, you have another guy who may not contribute very much. That is potentially 5 players who would contribute, but most likely on a limited basis, on a team that if it wants to win the Super Bowl needs to have guys who are proven.
The third part of this equation will be Welkers contract. He is a young player, yet he is productive as a reciever and as a special teamer. My guess is the contract will be 5 years. That is 5 years of known production from a young proven veteran. Under the new CBA, a second round pick can only be signed to a 4 year deal. Factor in one year for development and learning the sytem, you are now looking at 3 years of possible production from what is right now an unknown commodity. Remember, this draft pick could turn out to be M. Hill or B. Johnson and then you are looking at 0-1 year of production. Sure you may be paying that rookie less, but for what type of production?
To sum up. This is like being in a relationship with the perfect woman(or man)
Sure you know that they treat you great, are good in bed, and are perfect in almost everyway, but you see that other woman(or man) and wonder if it would be just a little bit better with them. Turns out most the time it isn't.
Most people are upset that we are giving up a 2nd round pick, now that a 7th has been added, even more people are upset. Why? The real reason is because of the unknown or "the grass is greener" effect.
With Welker, you have a basic idea of what he brings to the team, but a 2nd round pick "could" be that next great player that becomes a superstar player that everyteam wants and the Patriots were able to grab. Right now, that 2nd pick seems so much better than Welker because we don't know what or who that player will be. This is a nice fantasy until week 1 of the season when that player is most likely sitting on the bench or playing a very limited role. Welker, while not a superstar by any means, could become one of the most productive players on the offense for us, and he has a track record to prove that. I see posts now with people being upset with the 7th rounder now too, but realistically the player chosen their has little to no chance of making this team, but again, the thought of the unkown and "potential" gets in the way of reality.
Most of us like to applaud our front office and coach for being brilliant when it comes to the draft, but they know better than anyone that it is a crapshoot and if you get 1 or 2 guys out of each draft that can really contribute on a consistent basis, then they have won.
The second part of the equation is not revealed yet, but will be soon. We all know that we are going to be given potentially 4 comp. picks depending on how the league divies them up. If we can squeeze a 3rd out of them, great, if not, we most likely will get a pick in each of the day 2 rounds (4,5,6,7). That is 4 picks that the Patriots must use. They cannot be traded or packaged to move up. That means we are looking at a total of anywhere between 8 to 10 picks still, even after this trade.
We all know that if they do indeed use both first rounders they will make this team, as well as the 3rd rounder we currently have and the 3rd if we were to get one as a comp. pick. That is 3 to 4 guaranteed spots for guys who may not necessarily contribute a whole lot this first year. If the patriots had not traded for Welker, who we know will contribute this year, you have another guy who may not contribute very much. That is potentially 5 players who would contribute, but most likely on a limited basis, on a team that if it wants to win the Super Bowl needs to have guys who are proven.
The third part of this equation will be Welkers contract. He is a young player, yet he is productive as a reciever and as a special teamer. My guess is the contract will be 5 years. That is 5 years of known production from a young proven veteran. Under the new CBA, a second round pick can only be signed to a 4 year deal. Factor in one year for development and learning the sytem, you are now looking at 3 years of possible production from what is right now an unknown commodity. Remember, this draft pick could turn out to be M. Hill or B. Johnson and then you are looking at 0-1 year of production. Sure you may be paying that rookie less, but for what type of production?
To sum up. This is like being in a relationship with the perfect woman(or man)
Sure you know that they treat you great, are good in bed, and are perfect in almost everyway, but you see that other woman(or man) and wonder if it would be just a little bit better with them. Turns out most the time it isn't.
