The Possible Downside of a Stay

[SlowGettingUp]

So various commentators have suggested that Brady has about a 50:50 shot of being granted a stay by Justice Ginsburg - the key here is the concept of "irreparable injury" and the fact that Ginsburg is generally sympathetic to labor issues.

But the problem is what might happen next - the chances of the Supreme Court then granted cert. are not all that high here given no existing conflict between circuits. The Supreme Court has said it is not generally in the business of fixing "mistakes" (of facts or law) by lower courts. If cert. is denied, then there is a not unsubstantial chance of Brady having to serve his suspension midway through the season, unless he can first get a 60 day filing extension, which is "not favored."

Here is the timing for filing cert. - basically 90 days after final judgement:

Rule 13. Review on Certiorari: Time for Petitioning

It is unpredictable how long a cert. decision might take though - many are very quick, others not.

Here are two conflicting views, the first disagreeing with my take:

I don’t think Patriot fans have anything to worry about. I predict Justice Ginsburg will issue the stay, pushing any suspension into the 2017 season and allowing the Brady Bunch to make one more run at an NFL Championship and one more attempt at reversing Goodell.
Sports Law Blog

This one supports my concern:

Tom Brady, Bill Belichick could have different opinions about continuing to fight suspension​

 

[Jackson 2]

Since the Berman ruling, pretty much everything that could go in the dumper in this mess has. As a fan, I'm torn for the first time on this one. But, if I'm Brady I take it to the end.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

Here are two conflicting views, the first disagreeing with my take:

I don’t think Patriot fans have anything to worry about. I predict Justice Ginsburg will issue the stay, pushing any suspension into the 2017 season and allowing the Brady Bunch to make one more run at an NFL Championship and one more attempt at reversing Goodell.
Sports Law Blog
​

Alan milstein also stated the 2nd circuit was 90% likely to grant an en banc hearing. Screw him.

 

[supafly]

Since the Berman ruling, pretty much everything that could go in the dumper in this mess has. As a fan, I'm torn for the first time on this one. But, if I'm Brady I take it to the end.

I'm a bit torn as well. On one hand, we have the obvious choice of continuing to fight to the end. On the other, we have the potential to see Brady end up serving his suspension later in the season, or even postseason.

As unjust as this all is, at least we know that there are 3 in a row at home after the opener. If Brady serves that time early on, we can get back to seeing him in week five with the division very much up for grabs. Whatever he chooses to do, I will support.

 

[PatsBoy12]

I'm a bit torn as well. On one hand, we have the obvious choice of continuing to fight to the end. On the other, we have the potential to see Brady end up serving his suspension later in the season, or even postseason.

As unjust as this all is, at least we know that there are 3 in a row at home after the opener. If Brady serves that time early on, we can get back to seeing him in week five with the division very much up for grabs. Whatever he chooses to do, I will support.

Why is everyone assuming the division would be up for grabs or we'll be in some kind of shape to where Brady will have to salvage the season upon his return? Why though? Do we not still have Bill and the coordinators? On paper at least, do we not have a plethora of weapons offensively? On paper at least, do we not expect that the D will be top level? Three of the first four are in Gillette. Three of the four we know pretty well. What am I missing?

I know Brady is the GOAT and everything and I know we'll feel his loss. I just don't know, given what I listed, if I believe the situation is as dire as some. We still probably have the best roster in the league (in paper) and we still have the best coach ever and a pedigree for winning when nobody days we can. Even in 2014 I had to hear about how much better the Seahawks were going into the SB from all my friends and co-workers. One of the same guys stuck to it even after NE win the game. NE have demonstrated better than any other team I've ever seen that they're even better when people expect them to falter or predict their demise. I'm not being against them. And if I weren't so superstitious, I'd make a prediction of what their record will be when Brady returns. Let's just say I like my eggs in the column to the right, if you catch my drift.

By the way, Fly, I'm not attacking you, friend. I'm just tired of some of the doom and gloom. The games will be tough, no doubt, and I respect the teams we play those first four weeks. I just see a team, on paper, that looks pretty formidable playing against teams that I really don't think will be as good for various reasons. But games are won or lost on the field, so we'll see. I'm optimistic, though, and it's not a bout of homerism. I really think we are that good provided injuries don't destroy the roster during training camp.

 

[supafly]

Why is everyone assuming the division would be up for grabs or we'll be in some kind of shape to where Brady week have to salvage the season upon his return? Why though? Do we not still have Bill and the coordinators? On paper at least, do we not have a plethora of weapons offensively? On paper at least, do we not expect that the D will be top level? Three of the first four are in Gillette. Three of the four we know pretty well. What am I missing?

I know Brady is the GOAT and everything and I know we'll feel his loss. I just don't know, given what I listed, if I believe the situation is as dire as some. We still probably have the best roster in the league (in paper) and we still have the best coach ever and a pedigree for winning when nobody days we can. Even in 2014 I had to hear about how much better the Seahawks were going into the SB from all my friends and co-workers. One of the same guys stuck to it even after NE win the game. NE have demonstrated better than any other team I've ever seen that they're even better when people expect them to falter or predict their demise. I'm not being against them. And if I weren't so superstitious, I'd make a prediction of what their record will be when Brady returns. Let's just say I like my eggs in the column to the right, if you catch my drift.

By the way, Fly, I'm not attacking you, friend. I'm just tired of some of the doom and gloom. The games will be tough, no doubt, and I respect the teams we play those first four weeks. I just see a team, on paper, that looks pretty formidable playing against teams that I really don't think will be as good for various reasons. But games are won or lost on the field, so we'll see. I'm optimistic, though, and it's not a bout of homerism. I really think we are that good provided injuries don't destroy the roster during training camp.

Sorry if it came off as doom and gloom, buddy. I'm just saying that even if we go 2-2 (or even 1-3, God forbid), we'll still likely only be one game out. It shouldn't be too big of a deal, either way. The post was actually meant to be the opposite of doom and gloom, at least in that regard. Hard for me to imagine any of the divisional foes being better than 3-1.

In other words, I agree with you that the situation isn't nearly as dire as some are making it out to be--at least focusing on the actual impact of the record and postseason potential. The other stuff (Brady rep, unfair punishment, etc) completely blows.

 

[SlowGettingUp]

I'm just trying to be dispassionate here, looking at likely outcomes for the team.

Here are the possible outcomes that I see:

1. Brady gets a stay, they grant cert. and he wins. Best outcome, but very low probability.

2. Brady gets a stay, they grant cert. and he loses. Second best outcome because long delay before suspension.

3. Brady throws in the towel, or he doesn't get a stay, or he gets a stay and cert. is denied quickly - he misses the first four games. Most likely outcome.

4. Brady gets a stay, they deny cert., and depending on timing he misses four games later in the season (or even the post-season) - that would be the worst outcome - or four games next season.

 

[XLIX]

I sure wish the CA8 judges would get off their asses. We started getting antsy when we have to wait 7 weeks, those idiots have been deciding Peterson for 9 months.

 

[Gronkowski123]

he's gone for 4 games.

such garbage

 

[PatsBoy12]

Sorry if it came off as doom and gloom, buddy. I'm just saying that even if we go 2-2 (or even 1-3, God forbid), we'll still likely only be one game out. It shouldn't be too big of a deal, either way. The post was actually meant to be the opposite of doom and gloom, at least in that regard. Hard for me to imagine any of the divisional foes being better than 3-1.

In other words, I agree with you that the situation isn't nearly as dire as some are making it out to be--at least focusing on the actual impact of the record and postseason potential. The other stuff (Brady rep, unfair punishment, etc) completely blows.

I know, Fly, and that's why I added the last part. So sorry if my response came off that way. Although I quoted your post, my point was not necessarily directed at you. I guess it's just a cumulative effect of reading some of the 2-2 or 1-3 posts. It's as if of Brady has been the sole reason for the team's success. I distinctly remember people suggesting we try to get something for him in 2008 when Cassel helped produce an 11-5 record. What does that tell you? The infrastructure is sound. The team will be alright.

The D, to me, looks downright scary on paper. And, assuming injuries don't ravage the team in TC, we'll be rolling into the first four games with a pretty stacked offense. This isn't 2008 roster. And I do believe Jimmy G can, and likely will be, better than Cassel with a much better defense on the other side of the ball. I'm not worried one bit.

 

[patfanken]

I think we need to get back to the core element of this entire affair. HE DIDN'T DO ANYTHING WRONG!!!!! So having him "give up" and just accept the inevitable, doesn't seem like the Tom Brady we know and love. This is a guy who fights until the gun goes off....to the last play......to the end. He's played it the same way for 17 years. So I doubt he decides to just let it go, despite anything that SA Smith has to say about it.

All that being said, there is a much greater chance that Ginsberg issues a stay, than there is that SCOTUS will actually take the case on. The obvious problem is that no one can say for sure at what point SCOTUS actually decides which cases they are taking and which that will not. Obviously if it comes to pass that Goodell's witch hunt comes to pass, it would be better strategically that it happen in the first 4 games. And there in lies the problem.

BTW - I do not believe in Florio's theory that he and Tom are at loggerheads. It may make sense in a speculative and theoretical mode, but it goes against the 17 year relationship that Tom and Bill have forged as well as the fact that it makes no common sense for a man to ask another man to accept an unjust and unfair punishment, just to make HIS life easier. Does that sound like BB to you?

 

[YOUGOTMOSSED]

So various commentators have suggested that Brady has about a 50:50 shot of being granted a stay by Justice Ginsburg - the key here is the concept of "irreparable injury" and the fact that Ginsburg is generally sympathetic to labor issues.

But the problem is what might happen next - the chances of the Supreme Court then granted cert. are not all that high here given no existing conflict between circuits. The Supreme Court has said it is not generally in the business of fixing "mistakes" (of facts or law) by lower courts. If cert. is denied, then there is a not unsubstantial chance of Brady having to serve his suspension midway through the season, unless he can first get a 60 day filing extension, which is "not favored."

Here is the timing for filing cert. - basically 90 days after final judgement:

Rule 13. Review on Certiorari: Time for Petitioning

It is unpredictable how long a cert. decision might take though - many are very quick, others not.

Here are two conflicting views, the first disagreeing with my take:

I don’t think Patriot fans have anything to worry about. I predict Justice Ginsburg will issue the stay, pushing any suspension into the 2017 season and allowing the Brady Bunch to make one more run at an NFL Championship and one more attempt at reversing Goodell.
Sports Law Blog

This one supports my concern:

Tom Brady, Bill Belichick could have different opinions about continuing to fight suspension​

So the Patriots entire 2017 season rides on:

1. The whim of a dingbat SC Justice;

2. The League acting in good faith this season if the stay is granted.

Not seeing much cause for optimism.

 

[SlowGettingUp]

The League acting in good faith this season if the stay is granted.

No, nothing to do with the League at all. It's all about the Supreme Court now - they determine what happens if the stay is in fact granted and their timing at that point is unknown.

 

[YOUGOTMOSSED]

No, nothing to do with the League at all. It's all about the Supreme Court now - they determine what happens if the stay is in fact granted and their timing at that point is unknown.

Maybe not legally, but I would expect a few more ill timed OPI's and holding calls to go against us. I may just stick to baseball and look into developing some new fall hobbies than waste my time with this garbage.

 

[Ivan]

First of all I'll back Brady whatever his decision. I was happy enough getting the first Lombardi let alone the greatest run of success any franchise has ever seen. Brady has surpassed every hope any of us ever had and deserves that much.

As much as I have wanted vindication for Brady I am resolved that he may not get it, but that doesn't change anything other than to light a bonfire under his ass and stick it to the rest of the league, and while I think he may have been ok with winning another Lombardi before all of this now I don't believe he will settle for that at all, only 6 or 7 is going to satisfy him.

I don't believe they will be under .500 coming out of September, I think Belichick and this team are better than that and will go at least 2-2, and last I knew they do alright from that position.

When Brady comes back I pity the fools who have to play them, and I won't be surprised if they either run the table or only drop one the rest of the way, and he'll be hosting the Lombardi once again when all is said and done.

Last point:

F*ck the 31

 

[moejr]

I think we need to get back to the core element of this entire affair. HE DIDN'T DO ANYTHING WRONG!!!!! So having him "give up" and just accept the inevitable, doesn't seem like the Tom Brady we know and love. This is a guy who fights until the gun goes off....to the last play......to the end. He's played it the same way for 17 years. So I doubt he decides to just let it go, despite anything that SA Smith has to say about it.

All that being said, there is a much greater chance that Ginsberg issues a stay, than there is that SCOTUS will actually take the case on. The obvious problem is that no one can say for sure at what point SCOTUS actually decides which cases they are taking and which that will not. Obviously if it comes to pass that Goodell's witch hunt comes to pass, it would be better strategically that it happen in the first 4 games. And there in lies the problem.

BTW - I do not believe in Florio's theory that he and Tom are at loggerheads. It may make sense in a speculative and theoretical mode, but it goes against the 17 year relationship that Tom and Bill have forged as well as the fact that it makes no common sense for a man to ask another man to accept an unjust and unfair punishment, just to make HIS life easier. Does that sound like BB to you?

I would rather him retire than serve any suspension. Really the only way he can preserve his innocence at this point.

 

[jmt57]

As much as I have wanted vindication for Brady I am resolved that he may not get it, but that doesn't change anything other than to light a bonfire under his ass and stick it to the rest of the league, and while I think he may have been ok with winning another Lombardi before all of this now I don't believe he will settle for that at all, only 6 or 7 is going to satisfy him.

When the Patriots went a few years ago, the masses outside of New England shouted 'see, can't win without cheating'.

If the Patriots win again (or multiple times), somebody from those same masses will run a probability analysis - similar to the since debunked fumbling stats - and shout 'they had to have cheated to win that often'.

For those folks it is always a 'heads I win, tails you lose' conversation.

 

[Silver Blue&Red]

Since the Berman ruling, pretty much everything that could go in the dumper in this mess has. As a fan, I'm torn for the first time on this one. But, if I'm Brady I take it to the end.

If Brady did nothing wrong , HE SHOULD NEVER, EVER ADMIT TO THAT!!!. What his so hard for people to understand. The guy has more INTEGRITY than any man, woman or child involved with the MFL. Instead of every jackhole on TV calling for him to cave, maybe they should tell the assholes who started this frame job to stop the BS. I, for one, hope TB takes this to the bitter end. Take to the very last legal option, sue the piss out of the Colts, the Ravens, Goodell, the NFL, BSPN, NFLN..... Defamation suits, Books, press conferences..... Any option, valid or not. And I hope it annoys the living **** out every **** who thinks he should stop.

 

[Gronk]

I would rather him retire than serve any suspension. Really the only way he can preserve his innocence at this point.

I get the emotion, but my cooler head disagrees with the full sentiment.

I wouldn't be mad at him if he did hold a press conference, say "I didn't do this, and to that end I will not serve any suspension, and I hereby announce my retirement."

There's so much legal stuff involved at this point that - in the macro sense at least - it's a little difficult to parse the legal ramifications from the (supposed) act of criminality, that I personally just really want it to be over. I, as are most of here, am obviously biased in Tom's favor, but I also think the facts of the situation rest towards his innocence as well. On one hand I hope the SC would hold for a stay of the suspension if they are petitioned, but I also don't want to go through another season of this. I think the 2016 Patriots can hold strong in his absence and win the Super Bowl anyway. I also don't want him to serve time for something he didn't do, or for something that even if he did do (and I don't believe he did), would not warrant a 4-game suspension and all the press this has received the last 1.5 years. In the longview I feel like the whole circus surrounding "Deflategate", while not exonerating him entirely, will not cast an overly long shadow over his legacy that - for sure - another SB title would not easily surpass. I believe he should fight to the bitter end to attempt to exonerate himself, and I believe he will, but I don't think that retiring or in any way accepting any penalty benefits him in any way at this point, even if he did do it. Go down swinging, if you miss the 4 games then you miss the 4 games. Then beast out on everybody, and make sure the impact of what happened to you is fully atoned for in the next CBA negotiations.

 

[Jackson 2]

If Brady did nothing wrong , HE SHOULD NEVER, EVER ADDMIT TO THAT!!!. What his so hard for people to understand. The guy has more INTEGRITY than any man, woman or child involved with the MFL. Instead of every jackhole on TV calling for him to cave, maybe they should tell the assholes to started this frame job to stop the BS. I, for one, hope TB takes this to the bitter end. Take to the very last legal option, sue the piss out of the Colts, the Ravens, Goodell, the NFL, BSPN, NFLN..... Defamation suits, Books, press conferences..... Any option, valid or not. And I hope it annoys the living **** out every **** who thinks he should stop.

I have no idea why you would reply to my post in this manner. I guess you must have missed my last sentence. Here it is again, "But, if I'm Brady, I take it to the end."