The Patriots will pick a RB in the first 2 rounds

[BobDigital]

This is my new prediction for this draft year and the more I think about it the more sure I am about it.

Lets look at the reasons why.

Reason 1: Past history indicates they will.

In Patriots History under BB the Pats have used high draft capital 3 times on a RB.

2004 - Traded for Corey Dillion (2nd), 2006 - Drafted - Lawrence Maroney (1st) , 2011 - Drafted Vereen (2nd).

BB historically does not like to pay RBs but he in the past he has shown value in them by investing draft picks. The circumstances of picking up these backs are interesting.

2004 - The Patriots had a good D and solid WR core.
2006 - Same as 2004.
2011 - Same as 2004.

Let me explain a bit about 2006 and 2011.

In 2006 going into the draft the Patriots had a solid D and still had Deion Branch and were probably counting on keeping him. Contract talks broke off in May after the draft. They probably did not expect Branch to hold out and thought this RB would offer the last peice of an otherwise balanced team.

In 2011 the Pats had just drafted Hernandez and Gronk a year ago and had WRs in place. They thought they had plenty of pass catching options. The D was not perfect but decent. It had McCourty coming off a ROTY caliber season looking like a potential #1 CB. Vet signings of Andre Cater, Haynesworth. This was an off season not unlike this year when they loaded up but just missed on a few big things and a few players did not pan out/got injured. This was a plan to have a complete team so BB thought he would draft a RB high (and one in the 3rd too).

The pattern is clear. BB worries about RB last. Once he feels he has everything else he is willing to spend premium picks to get one he believes is good.

Reason 2: This RB class is really good.

I don't believe there is a HOF back in this draft. I think there are several "Hall of very good" RBs though. This is the deepest RB draft I have seen in quite some time. This works in favor of this argument cause even though BB does draft with a mind towards positions a lot he almost never picks someone at a spot they are not worthy of. By the time 32 and 64 rolls around (assuming no trade ups or downs) there will be at least 1 if not more RBs that are good value.

Reasons 3: BB does not pay for RBs.

BB values RBs but in a very specific way it appears to me. They are worth using high assets to get but not worth keeping for high dollars. He would rather use a pick to get a RB on a low contract than spend for one. This year also makes going after one of the high priced RBs in FA particularly impractical due to other needs to fill. So if we assume BB wants to get a RB on the cheap he either A) Needs to trade for one or B) Needs to draft one. As far as i know there is no cheap top RB who can trade for right now like the Dillon situation (which i will remind you BB didn't mind using a 2nd round pick for a 2-3 year player)

Keep in mind this is not the pick i want the Pats to make automatically. Just the one i think they will.

 

[Marqui]

God, I hope not.

 

[captain stone]

I would be surprised, and very very disappointed if that happens.

 

[doesntmatter1]

I fear for us when it comes to shiny offensive toys. We usually take the blandest ones and even when they work out it seems to take a few seasons before they shine. There are many good backs in this draft but I feel that you can cross half of them off the list and look right at the senior bowl for who we will take.

 

[kennyb]

The guy from usc buck Allen is bb's type of rb. Cuts quickly good receiver good size. One cut and go.

5th round.

There's almost no place to put a rb. Vereen white ridley Blount gray. Yes I know ridley is a fa as is vereen. Vereen has amazing hands but his running is hit or miss.

 

[doesntmatter1]

The guy from usc buck Allen is bb's type of rb. Cuts quickly good receiver good size. One cut and go.

5th round.

There's almost no place to put a rb. Vereen white ridley Blount gray. Yes I know ridley is a fa as is vereen. Vereen has amazing hands but his running is hit or miss.

Vereen was a draft binky of mine. Patient runner with great vision. Our line doesn't give him the time he wants. I can easily see him killing it in Kubiak's zone blocking scheme.

There are at least 10 backs I like but here are the ones imho that best fit us in this order: Yeldon, Josh Robinson, and Jay Ajayi.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

The guy from usc buck Allen is bb's type of rb. Cuts quickly good receiver good size. One cut and go.

5th round.

There's almost no place to put a rb. Vereen white ridley Blount gray. Yes I know ridley is a fa as is vereen. Vereen has amazing hands but his running is hit or miss.

Plus Tyler Gaffney, who wasn't a slouch at Stanford.

 

[MrNathanDrake]

I think BB re-signs Vereen due to his versatility and blocking.

 

[BobDigital]

The guy from usc buck Allen is bb's type of rb. Cuts quickly good receiver good size. One cut and go.

5th round.

There's almost no place to put a rb. Vereen white ridley Blount gray. Yes I know ridley is a fa as is vereen. Vereen has amazing hands but his running is hit or miss.

I made this thread in the assumption that either Vereen or Ridley walk (or both). The Patriots do not have a true top tier RB even with them. I think it is a spot that is very upgradable if BB wants to do so.

Look at the regular season and playoffs

Regular season - 18th in total rushing yards. 22nd in YPA. They had a few big games against mostly bad run Ds but a lot of games were very meh to bad.

In the playoffs the games were like this.

Ravens - 14 yards (completely shut down)
Colts - 177 yards (able to exploit a bad run D)
Seattle - 57 yards on 21 attempts (not able to run effectively)

So the Pats run game last year in the playoffs only factored in a game they we could have won easily without it. In tough games against tough Ds it was useless.

Now you can upgrade that with Guards of course but to be honest looking at the Pats RBs they just were not all that good at running.

Also I think the Pats fans are generally turned off by the idea cause of the mental scars left by the Maroney miss or being afraid of picking a Trent Richardson. I am not worried about that part of it. RBs tend to bust a lot less than other positions when picked high or at least no more.

Now I am not so for picking a RB. I am just saying I think it will happen looking at how things stand.

 

[BelichickFan]

In a normal situation I would say "No they won't. Or, probably not anyway, you never know with Bill". Even without Ridley/Vereen we would have Bloung/Gray/Gaffney competing for big back time and White/Dio Lewis competing for the Vereen role.

However this draft is so deep at RB we may have little choice but to take one. Whether it's potential 3 down back in the top two rounds or a TJ Yeldon type in the 3rd, the value could be too great.

 

[ZoisKing]

I made this thread in the assumption that either Vereen or Ridley walk (or both). The Patriots do not have a true top tier RB even with them. I think it is a spot that is very upgradable if BB wants to do so.

Look at the regular season and playoffs

Regular season - 18th in total rushing yards. 22nd in YPA. They had a few big games against mostly bad run Ds but a lot of games were very meh to bad.

In the playoffs the games were like this.

Ravens - 14 yards (completely shut down)
Colts - 177 yards (able to exploit a bad run D)
Seattle - 57 yards on 21 attempts (not able to run effectively)

So the Pats run game last year in the playoffs only factored in a game they we could have won easily without it. In tough games against tough Ds it was useless.

Now you can upgrade that with Guards of course but to be honest looking at the Pats RBs they just were not all that good at running.

Also I think the Pats fans are generally turned off by the idea cause of the mental scars left by the Maroney miss or being afraid of picking a Trent Richardson. I am not worried about that part of it. RBs tend to bust a lot less than other positions when picked high or at least no more.

Now I am not so for picking a RB. I am just saying I think it will happen looking at how things stand.

It starts with how good the line is. No RB can run if the holes aren't there. Why invest such a premium pick in a RB when you have obvious needs on both lines? Those needs far outweigh a RB.

 

[BelichickFan]

It starts with how good the line is. No RB can run if the holes aren't there. Why invest such a premium pick in a RB when you have obvious needs on both lines? Those needs far outweigh a RB.

Both can be done. I fully expect, or hope for, OG upgrades. That doesn't preclude also improving at RB.

 

[BobDigital]

It starts with how good the line is. No RB can run if the holes aren't there. Why invest such a premium pick in a RB when you have obvious needs on both lines? Those needs far outweigh a RB.

I agree generally. That is the argument I would make to Bill. However it is not like we had a great RB that is being held back by our OL. It is hard to tell how good our OL is at run blocking cause our RBs are so mediocre. I agree upgrading our OL and DL should be priority but neither was as bad as the run game was down the stretch. If BB uses a top pick on it I will completely understand his reasoning.

Having to make Brady throw 50 times to win both our tough playoff games is certainty not ideal.

 

[ZoisKing]

Both can be done. I fully expect, or hope for, OG upgrades. That doesn't preclude also improving at RB.

Would you rather improve at RB early or go defensive line? There is a big need for our DL to get better. We didn't generate a great pass rush this year. By neglecting our DL early we are saying that we think that RB is in more need of help, which it is not. If our line was as good as it was in our early championship years, then we'd be an amazing defense. Our secondary is there. Our linebackers are there. Our line is not. Wilfork is aging and is not worth his cap hit. Chandler Jones has shown flashes but he has not reached that next level. Ninko is our best lineman and that isn't good enough. Hopefully Easley comes back strong and ready to contribute, but he's just another "what if" on the line for us right now.

 

[ZoisKing]

I agree generally. That is the argument I would make to Bill. However it is not like we had a great RB that is being held back by our OL. It is hard to tell how good our OL is at run blocking cause our RBs are so mediocre. I agree upgrading our OL and DL should be priority but neither was as bad as the run game was down the stretch. If BB uses a top pick on it I will completely understand his reasoning.

Having to make Brady throw 50 times to win both our tough playoff games is certainty not ideal.

What do you consider down the stretch? Playoffs? We game planned for Baltimore and Seattle based on their strengths. We game planned for Indy based on their strengths, and we ran all over them. As OTG frequently states, it all starts in the trenches. I think we have a stable of RBs who are much more than mediocre. Blount, Ridley, and Vereen have all shown above average ability in their respective skill sets.

 

[Luxusdk]

What do you consider down the stretch? Playoffs? We game planned for Baltimore and Seattle based on their strengths. We game planned for Indy based on their strengths, and we ran all over them. As OTG frequently states, it all starts in the trenches. I think we have a stable of RBs who are much more than mediocre. Blount, Ridley, and Vereen have all shown above average ability in their respective skill sets.

Here you assume Veeren and/or Ridley returns and I wouldn't Count on it.

 

[ZoisKing]

Here you assume Veeren and/or Ridley returns and I wouldn't Count on it.

You can't count on anything as far as this team is concerned. However, I believe Ridley comes back and has a "prove it" year. As far as Vereen is concerned, he just caught the second most passes in Superbowl history. He can block and catch very well, and if given room to run, can do that well also. He has a lot of value to this team, and has stated he wants to be back. High character guy who gets what we're doing. I can't see him leaving.

 

[BobDigital]

What do you consider down the stretch? Playoffs? We game planned for Baltimore and Seattle based on their strengths. We game planned for Indy based on their strengths, and we ran all over them. As OTG frequently states, it all starts in the trenches. I think we have a stable of RBs who are much more than mediocre. Blount, Ridley, and Vereen have all shown above average ability in their respective skill sets.

For down the stretch I am solely talking playoffs. I agree it starts in the trenches and to me that is where my first pick goes for sure. My 2nd pick I could maybe be talked into but I'd probably go DL or OL there too.

I think we overrate our RBs a bit. Vereen is the only one above average in his skill set (as far as starting 3rd down back) and he might walk.

Blount as a starting RB is below average. He has had great games against the Colts but when asked to do it against tough Ds in the playoffs he could not get close to 4 YPA. Ridley Is the same thing. He had 1 good game against Houston in the playoffs (a far inferior team) in the others he was meh to bad.

You say they are not mediocre. We will need to just disagree there. I don't look at Ridley or Blount as an above average or average starting RB.

 

[ZoisKing]

I was checking Vereen's stats and he was fourth in the NFL in receptions for RBs, and fifth in yards. That's pretty darn good, especially considering he was like our fourth or fifth option in our passing offense.

 

[ZoisKing]

For down the stretch I am solely talking playoffs. I agree it starts in the trenches and to me that is where my first pick goes for sure. My 2nd pick I could maybe be talked into but I'd probably go DL or OL there too.

I think we overrate our RBs a bit. Vereen is the only one above average in his skill set (as far as starting 3rd down back) and he might walk.

Blount as a starting RB is below average. He has had great games against the Colts but when asked to do it against tough Ds in the playoffs he could not get close to 4 YPA. Ridley Is the same thing. He had 1 good game against Houston in the playoffs (a far inferior team) in the others he was meh to bad.

You say they are not mediocre. We will need to just disagree there. I don't look at Ridley or Blount as an above average or average starting RB.

I think most RBs could say the same against tough defenses. Marshawn Lynch who is given the title of best back in the game by some, barely managed 4 yards against our D Line in the SB. It's all relative. Tough run defenses don't give up rushing yards.