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The Patriots vs. the whole league when starting offense inside of thier own 20

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by PATRIOTSFANINPA, Oct 25, 2007.

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  1. PATRIOTSFANINPA

    PATRIOTSFANINPA Pro Bowl Player

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    #12 Jersey

    Here is an amazing stat today told by Pat Kirwin of Sirius NFL Radio


    This season as a whole 31 team league has teams that have the ball inside of thier own 20 yard line to go and score a touchdown is at a 13% touchdown rate.

    The Patriots inside of thier own 20 have a 79% touchdown rate - Thats 66% more touchdowns per inside the 20 offensive series than the average of most other teams in the league.

    The Patriots when inside of thier own 20 have scored a TD in 8 of 11 attempts for that 79% ratio

    The Colts have been inside of thier 20 at 19 times this season,They have scored a TD just ONCE - Thats right,1 for 19 in TDs from inside thier own 20 - Thats an amazing stat considering thier offense almost always performs at a high level.

    That stat puts the Patriotsat a level on thier own and by far when you try and get them deep - for all but 21% of the time it has not mattered.
     
  2. ALP

    ALP Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    surprise surprise..LOL

    that pats are good...rit now i say the colts and pats are on teh same level...but in reality they are not...i will change my statement AFTER the pats win in INdy, so taht the INDy fans dont come for blood with their "we are the reigning champs" talk
     
  3. xmarkd400x

    xmarkd400x 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    13 * X = 79
    X = 6.07

    The Patriots are scoring 607% more touchdowns per inside the 20 offensive series.
     
  4. patchick

    patchick Moderatrix Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #50 Jersey

    Almost...it's 508% more. 79% is 508% more than 13%.


    Anyway...how come the Pats can't score like that from outside of their 20-yard line? What's wrong with this team? :p
     
  5. xmarkd400x

    xmarkd400x 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    I am so smart. I am so smart. S-M-R-T

    -Homer (also applies to me)
     
  6. atomdomb

    atomdomb Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    the bad news is the pats can't stop anyone in their own 20.:confused:
     
  7. ALP

    ALP Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    how did u do that math wrong? LOL
     
  8. Saqs

    Saqs Rookie

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    Meaningless stat. The Pats score more TDs than the whole league regardless of ball placement. Brady has thrown for more TDs than some teams have scored.
     
  9. xmarkd400x

    xmarkd400x 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    79 is 6.07 times 13. It is only 5.08 times more.
     
  10. patchick

    patchick Moderatrix Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #50 Jersey

    Of course they do. But 79% of the time when you have to go 80+ yards is insane. It's basically saying that there's no such thing as "pinning them deep." The 13% stat for the rest of the league helps illustrate just how remarkable that is.
     
  11. ALP

    ALP Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    i think teh stat shows a lot...it shows u may as well let us have it from YOUR 20...cuz giving it to us in OUR wont come near stopping us...

    a smart coach would start going for in on 4th down agaisnt the pats...every time...(could backfire..but hey...at this point opposing teams should try AnYTHING that comes to mind)
     
  12. PatSunday

    PatSunday On the Game Day Roster

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    79 is 6.07 times 13. It is 6.07 times more than 13. It is 508% more than 13.

    The following is a better way to phrase it, anyway: The Patriots have scored 8 times as many TDs as the Colts have starting inside their 20 yard line, AND the Colts have had twice as many chances as the Pats! Therefore, the Patriots are 16 times better than the Colts at this (they'd have 16 TDs if they had the same number of attempts as the Colts at this rate, to the Colts 1 TD.)

    Similarly, since Brady has started ~100 times, Manning ~150, and Favre ~250, Manning is only 66% the qb Brady is and Favre is 40% the qb Brady is.
     
    Last edited: Oct 25, 2007
  13. patchick

    patchick Moderatrix Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #50 Jersey

    OK, I suspect that was just a typo, but...it's 6.07 times 13, 5.08 times more than 13. Which means 607% of 13%, 508% more than 13.

    (Percent difference and percent change bedevil everyone. My husband once had a job where he knew the salaries of everybody in the company because the bookkeeper didn't trust herself to compute percent changes at raise time and always asked him to do it for her!)
     
  14. FreakGoDeep

    FreakGoDeep Practice Squad Player

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    i did my own research on something like this and my number were a little diffrent do possibly to my own math errors.


    I looked up drives from inside the 30 yard mark.

    I added up
    18 times the pats didn't get a TD (fumble, int, punt or FG)
    and 19 times they did.
    Of those 19 times i found 7 from inside the 20 and 3 from inside the 90.
    3 times they went over 90 YARDS!!

    they went from inside the 30 7 times and only 1 of those was from inside the 20 (like the original post said)

    so when Gost kicks to the colts and makes it a touch back, the odds are against the colts of going all the way.
     
    Last edited: Oct 25, 2007
  15. xmarkd400x

    xmarkd400x 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    Now I'm confused. 2x5=10. Two times five equals ten. Ten is 500% the size of 2, and is 400% more than 2.
     
    Last edited: Oct 25, 2007
  16. Phokus

    Phokus Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    Is there an article for this? That's pretty amazing.
     
  17. AzPatsFan

    AzPatsFan Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    Some stats are not independent, but derivative and others are illuminating.

    This is an illuminating statistic. It says the Offense is used to creating long marches and seldom is challenged to make first downs.

    Conversely, the Defensive stat that shows many more TDs than FGs being scored is a derivative statistic. In three of the 16 penetrationns of the Pats Red Zone, the opposition walked away with no points. That is acceptable, but not great percentage. But the ratio of TDs surrendered to FG is poor, but it is a derivative and not illuminating statistic. Opponents are so far behind in most cases that when they penetrate the Pats Red zone, it is usless to settle for a FGA, so they only attempted 1 even though a Red Zone FG is almost a certain three points.

    Instead they have ignored the FG and went for the TD even attempting many fourth down tries. For confirmation look at the number of fourth down attempts and the relative success doing so. That is what accounts for the high success rate in the Red Zone TDs, IMO.
     
  18. PatSunday

    PatSunday On the Game Day Roster

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    Yes, number-wise, 6 is 3 times as big as 2, or 6 is 3 times greater than 2, or 6 is 4 greater than 2, or 6 is 3 times more than 2, or 6 is 4 more than 2, or 6 is 200% more than 2, but if you say 6 is 2.00 more than 2, that's just wrong.
     
    Last edited: Oct 25, 2007
  19. NavinR.Johnson

    NavinR.Johnson On the Roster

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    The Colts have been inside of thier 20 at 19 times this season,They have scored a TD just ONCE - Thats right,1 for 19 in TDs from inside thier own 20 - Thats an amazing stat considering thier offense almost always performs at a high level.

    You might want to check this stat again -- They've scored 6 Red Zone TD's in the last two games.

    They were 4/6 against the Bucs and 2/4 against the Jags
     
  20. Pat the Pats Fan

    Pat the Pats Fan In the Starting Line-Up

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    #50 Jersey

    Navin, you Jerk ......read the quote again.........Colts starting inside THEIR 20 yard line, that means the Colts would have to go 80+ yards to get a TD. When they have to drive more than 80 yards, they are 1 for 19 in getting a TD. Colts have only had one sustained 80+ yard drive for a TD.
     
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