The Patriots' Record in the 2nd Round

Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by patchick, May 23, 2012.

  1. patchick

    patchick Moderatrix Staff Member Supporter

    #50 Jersey

    I've noticed a lot of remarks here lately taking as a given that the Patriots have a problem with the 2nd round of the draft. E.g., jokes about how they might as well have traded away all their 2nd round picks, since they're going to be worthless any way.

    I started to wonder just how bad the team's record in that round has actually been. So I decided to compare against the team that is commonly regarded on this board and others as the draft gold standard, the Steelers. I looked at every second round pick of PIT and NE from 2001-2010. I took my standard of success for a 2nd rounder to be "became a regular starter." Here's the breakdown:

    Steelers: 8 total picks, 4 successful, 50% hit rate.

    Patriots: 14 total picks, 7 successful, 50% hit rate.

    So that's dead even at 50%...though I had to be verrrry generous to the Steelers to make it so. 3 of their 4 "successes" were only half-time starters during their rookie contracts, or only became starters in their 4th season. All 7 of the Patriots' "successes" were full-time starters by season 2.

    So either the Steelers are much, much worse than we thought, or the Patriots are, despite widespread fan perception, pretty darned awesome.

    My guess: the perception of failure is totally a byproduct of the Patriots' stockpiling so many 2nd-round picks. It makes it super easy for fans to think of a large number of failures, even though their rate of success is outstanding.
    Last edited: May 23, 2012
  2. ZoisKing

    ZoisKing On the Game Day Roster

    #11 Jersey

    Who's on your lists?

    I think Bill realizes that the draft can be a crapshoot as I mentioned in the Pats vs Ravens draft thread. The more guys he can give a shot, the better his odds.

    I don't think the success rate is the key, but the number of successes. 7 vs. 4. That says hes acquired 3 more players who made contributions to the teams success. The more guys you can get that stick the better.
  3. patchick

    patchick Moderatrix Staff Member Supporter

    #50 Jersey

    That's the interesting thing -- more chances is better from the perspective of actual talent added to the team, but ends up perceived as worse because we remember so many failures.

    Here are the 2 "success" lists:

    LaMarr Woodley
    Bryant McFadden
    Antwaan Randle El
    Kendrell Bell

    Rob Gronkowski
    Brandon Spikes
    Pat Chung
    Sebastian Vollmer
    Eugene Wilson
    Deion Branch
    Matt Light
  4. patchick

    patchick Moderatrix Staff Member Supporter

    #50 Jersey

    Thinking more about this, I think the rate and the total number of successes are both valid measures, they're just measuring different things. The total reflects both draft strategy and talent selection, while the rate zeroes in on talent selection (which is what the complaints are usually about).
  5. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic Supporter Supporter

    Last month I put together an analysis looking at the draft record in the first 2 rounds of some of the most successful drafting teams since 2005. I looked at 10 teams:

    - New England (3 SBs since 2000)
    - Pittsburgh (2 SBs since 2000)
    - NY Giants (2 SBs since 2000)
    - Baltimore (1 SB since 2000)
    - Green Bay (1 SB since 2000)
    - New Orleans (1 SB since 2000)
    - Indianapolis (1 SB since 2000)
    - Philadelphia (best non-SB winning NFC team since 2000)
    - San Diego (best non-SB winning AFC team since 2000)
    - Houston

    Here are the draft results of those teams in reverse order. It's a long analysis, so it's broken out over several posts.

    10. Houston Texans

    - 2005: Travis Johnson, DT, Florida St. (#16) - spent 4 years with Houston before moving on to San Diego. Never lived up to his 1st round status. Poor pick.
    - 2006: Mario Williams, DE, NC St. (#1) - lived up to his #1 overall draft status before leaving Houston after his rookie contract expired. An Pro Bowl impact defender. Great pick.
    - 2006: DeMeco Ryans, ILB, Alabama (#33) - was DROY in 2006 and an anchor of the defense for 6 years before being traded to Philadelphia this offseason. Excellent pick.
    - 2007: Amobi Okoye, DT, Louisville (#10). The youngest player in the 2007 draft, Okoye had a mediocre career before leaving after his rookie contract for Chicago. He has consistently under-produced. Poor pick.
    - 2008: Duane Brown, T, Virginia Tech (#26). A ZB OT who was considered a reach, Brown has been a mainstay of the Texans' excellent OL. Good pick.
    - 2009: Brian Cushing, LB, USC (#15). Considered a bit of a reach at 15, Cushing was the DROY and has been a Pro Bowl caliber player for Houston. His suspension for PEDs has been the only blemish on his selection. Excellent pick.
    - 2009: Connor Barwin, DE/OLB, Cincinnati (#46). A binky of this board, Barwin was considered raw and a workout warrior by some. He missed a year to a broken leg, but performed at a Pro Bowl level this year, and led to making Mario Williams expendable. Great pick.
    - 2010: Kareem Jackson, CB, Alabama (#20). Jackson had a rocky rookie season as part of one of the worst secondaries of all time. This season the results were better, but the jury is still out. The Texans passed on Devin McCourty to take Jackson. Questionable pick.
    - 2010: Ben Tate, RB, Auburn (#58). Tate missed his rookie season due to injury and was ten eclipsed by Arian Foster. But he had a solid sophomore year with 942 yards rushing and a 5.4 YPC average. Solid pick.
    - 2011: JJ Watt, DE, Wisconsin (#11). Watt played at a Pro Bowl level as a rookie, and looks like he will be one of the best 3-4 DEs in the league for a long time. Great pick.
    - 2011: Brooks Reed, DE/OLB, Arizona (#42). Considered a possible late 1st round pick by some, Reed had a solid rookie year pairing with Connor Barwin after Mario Williams' injury. Solid pick.

    Houston had no 2nd round picks in 2005, 2007 and 2008. But they made the ones they had count. DeMeco Ryans, Connor Barwin, Ben Tate and Brooks Reed were all good picks or better. But the Texans missed on several 1st round picks.

    9. San Diego Chargers

    - 2005: Shawne Merriman, DE/OLB, Maryland (#11). Merriman was a Pro Bowl force for 3 years before being suspended for PEDs and developing knee issues, possibly from AVN related to steroids. He's been a shadow of himself since then. But DeMarcus Ware would have been a better option. Good pick, but not as good as first thought.
    - 2005: Luis Castillo, DL, Northwestern (#28). Castillo has been a solid player and was a starter for most of 6 years, though he never broke through to elite status. Solid pick.
    - 2005: Vincent Jackson, RB, Colorado St. (#61). Jackson has been one of the best WRs in the NFL. His contract holdout stalled things a bit, and he has since left in FA for Tampa Bay. But it was a great pick.
    - 2006: Antonio Cromartie, CB, Florida St. (#19). Cromartie broke through in 2007 with 10 interceptions and made the Pro Bowl. His off-field issues were a distraction, however, and his free-lancing did not always pay off. He was traded to the Jets after the 2009 season. Still, given the other options, it was a solid pick.
    - 2006: Marcus McNeil, OT, Aubrun (#50). McNeil became a Pro Bowl LT and anchored the Charger's line for 6 years before eventually being let go. Great pick.
    - 2007: Craig Davis, WR, LSU (#30). Davis was a bust over 4 seasons, totalling 51 receptions for 558 yards over that period. He's now out of football.
    - 2007: Eric Weddle, S, Utah (#37). The Chargers traded up for Weddle, and he has been a mainstay of their secondary. They gave him a huge contract prior to the 2011 season. I'm not sure he's that good, but he was a solid pick.
    - 2008: Antoine Cason, CB, Arizona (#27). Cason has been a solid and dependable player, though not an elite CB. Brandon Flowers (#34) has been better, but overall Cason has been a solid pick.
    - 2009: Larry English, DE/OLB, Northern Illinois (#16). The Chargers surprised people by taking English early in the 2009 draft. He's struggled with injuries and has never lived up to his status. They passed on Clay Matthews and Connor Barwin, among others. Poor pick.
    - 2010: Ryan Mathews, RB, Fresno St. The Chargers traded #28 and #40 to move up for Mathews. Mathews came on slowly as a rookie, but had an excellent sophomore season, and looks ready to take over as the lead back for years to come.
    - 2011: Corey Liuget, DL, Illinois (#18). Liuget played in 15 games and started 13 as a rookie, with 19 tackles. Too early to tell.
    - 2011: Marcus Gilchrest, DB, Clemson (#50). played in 14 games and started 4 as a rookie, with 34 tackles. Too early to tell.
    - 2011: Jonas Mouton, LB, Michigan (#61). Mouton was considered a huge reach, being rated a day 3 prospect by most. He was drafted largely for his ST prowess. However, he missed all of 2011 with a shoulder injury, and was put on IR after week 3.

    Like the Texans, the Chargers have traded away 2nd round picks in several years - they had none in 2008, 2009 and 2010. The San Diego drafts form 2004-2006 were among the best 3 consecutive years I've ever seen. But since then they have been inconsistent at best, with a number of dubious trades and reaches. There have been some major misses as well, especially Larry English and Craig Davis. Jonas Mouton was a huge reach.
  6. ZoisKing

    ZoisKing On the Game Day Roster

    #11 Jersey

    Sure. I think the complaints are easier to quell when you look at the number of guys he's gotten right. Then, as you've mentioned, you can reference other perceived "excellent drafters" and compare the hit rate.
  7. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic Supporter Supporter


    Before moving on, I should add a few things to my analysis: # picks over the 6 year period, average number/round (or year), and success/failure rate.

    - Houston had 11 1st and 2nd round picks in the 6 year period - the only team in my top 10 to have less than 1 pick per round. That works out to 1.83 picks/year in the first 2 rounds. Or, to look at it differently, Houston had an extra "bust" from losing out on a second round pick - not being able to even draft someone is the greatest bust of all. But they had a pretty high success rate: Mario Wiliams, DeMeco Ryans, Duane Brown, Brian Cushing, Connor Barwin, JJ Watt and Brooks Reed all count as successes. That's a minimum of 7/11. Pretty damn good. And Ben Tate and Kareem Jackson can't be counted as busts at this point. Only the DTs - Travis Johnson and Amobi Okoye - were clear busts. Pretty good drafting.

    - San Diego had 13 1st and 2nd round picks in the 6 year period, or just over 2/year (2.17). Shawne Merriman, Luis Castillo, Vincent Jackson, Antonio Cromartie, Marcus McNeil and Eric Weddle were successes. Probably Antoire Cason as well. The book is still out on Ryan Mathews, Corey Liuget, Marcus Gilchrist and Jonas Mouton. Larry English and Craig Davis were the biggest busts.

    8. Philadelphia Eagles

    - 2005: Mike Patterson, DT, USC (#31). Patterson has been a starter for the Eagles since his sophomore season. He has never been an impact player, but has played solidly. OK pick.
    - 2005: Reggie Brown, WR, Georgia (#35). Brown never produced much for the Eagles, with his best season consisting of 61 catches for 780 yards. He was traded to Tampa Bay after the 2009 season and subsequently released. The Eagles passed up Vincent Jackson, among others. Poor pick.
    - 2005: Matt McCoy, LB, San Diego St. (#63). McCoy has been a journey 4-3 LB, never producing significantly. He was traded to New Orleans in his 3rd year, and is with his 4th NFL team. Philadelphia took him over Justin Tuck and Franke Gore, among others. Poor pick.
    - 2006: Broderick Bunkley, DT, Florida St (#14). Bunkley had a poor rookie season, but then was a starting DT for 3 seasons, followed by a poor 2010 season. He was traded to Denver prior to the 2011 season, and was signed to a 5 year contract by New Orleans this offseason. He has never performed at more than an adequate level, and has not justified a top-15 selection. Mediocre pick.
    - 2006: Winston Justice, OT, USC (#39). Considered a 1st round prospect, the Eagles were elated when Justice slipped to the second round. But Justice bombed as a LT and was moved to the right side, where he was serviceable but not spectacular. He was traded to Indianpolis after the 2011 season. The Eagles took Justice over Marcus McNeil (50). Mediocre pick.
    - 2007: Kevin Kolb, QB, (#36). The Eagles traded back from the first round to allow Dallas to move back in for Anthony Spencer, then took their "QB of the future". Kolb showed flashes before being traded to Arizona for Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and a 2012 2nd round pick. The Eagles got more than they paid for Kolb, so it was a good pick.
    - 2007: Victor Abiamiri, DE, Notre Dame (#57). Abiamiri played 3 years for the Eagles mostly as a backup before being released, and is out of football. Poor pick.
    - 2008: Trevor Laws, DT, Notre Dame (#47). Andy Reid just keeps looking for DTs, and he keeps getting mediocre ones. Get the picture? Another poor pick from Notre Dame, Laws played 4 seasons for the Eagles in which he started 2 games and recorded a grand total of 57 tackles. Not what you're looking from in a mid-2nd round pick. The Eagles passed up Jason Jones. Poor pick.
    - 2008: DeSean Jackson, WR, Cal (#49). A Pro Bowl WR and gamebreaker, Jackson has been one of the most electric playmakers in the league. He's had some personal issues and is on the selfish side, but the talent can't be denied. Great pick. But why did they take Trevor Laws ahead of him?
    - 2009: Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri (#19). The Eagles traded up to take the speedy Maclin and pair him with DeSean Jackson. Maclin has been solid, but not great. The Eagles could have had Hakeem Nicks. OK pick.
    - 2009: LeSean McCoy, RB, Pittsburgh (#53). McCoy has developed into the best RB from the 2009 class and one of the best all-purpose threats in the NFL. Great pick.
    - 2010: Brandon Graham, DE, Michigan (#13). The Eagles traded up for Graham. Graham underwhelmed in his rookie season before eventually tearing his ACL, and missed most of 2011. The jury is still out, but he has not showed signs of living up to his draft status. The Eagles could have had Jason Pierre-Paul. Poor pick.
    - 2010: Nate Allen, DB, USF (#37). The Eagles passed on JPP but took his teammate in the 2nd round, as their replacement for Brian Dawkins. Allen has played at a reasonable level, though he has missed time both seasons. The Eagles are still looky for safety help. It's early, but he has not been an impact player so far. OK pick.
    - 2011: Danny Watkins, OG, Baylor (#23). The Eagles surprised a few people by taking Watkins, a late riser in the 2011 draft who was 26 years old and considered by many the "safest bet" among the linemen. But Watkins struggled as a rookie, though he did start the last 12 games.
    - 2011: Jaiquan Jarrett. S, Temple (#54). Jarrett was a bit of a reach, but the Eagles needed DB help. He played in 12 games and started 2 as a rookie, recording 17 tackles. It's too early to pass judgment, but the Eagles are still looking for safety help in the 2012 draft.

    Philadelphia had 15 1st and 2nd round picks in the 6 year period, or 2.5/year. But they had more busts than either San Diego or Houston: Reggie Brown, Matt McCoy, Broderick Bunkley, Victor Abiamiri and Trevor Laws were all relative busts. Brandon Graham, Nate Allen, Danny Watkins and Jaiquan Jarrett have all underwhelmed so far, but it's too early to declare them busts. DeSean Jackson and LeSean McCoy were by far the most successful picks. Mike Patterson was solid, but not spectacular. Kevin Kolb is still undetermined, but the Eagles got good value for him.

    7. Indianapolis Colts

    - 2005: Marlin Jackson, DB, Michigan (#29) - other than his interception of Tom Brady to seal the 2007 AFCCG for Indy, Jackson did not live up to his 1st round status. He was a part-time starter who battled injuries for 5 seasons with Indy before being allowed to leave for Philly in free agency. He missed all of 2010 with an achilles injury, and has been out of football since. Meh.
    - 2005: Kelvin Hayden, DB, Illinois (#60) - Hayden has been a solid DB for 6 years, though he's had to battle injuries. He was released after 2011, but was a solid pick.
    - 2006: Joseph Addai, RB, LSU (#30) - the 4th RB taken in 2006, Addai helped fill the void left by Edgerrin James and helped the Colts win the Super Bowl. He was an excellent back for 2 years, and mediocre after that before being released this year. OK pick, excellent his first 2 years.
    - 2006: Tim Jennings, CB, Georgia (#62) - an undersized DB, Jennings has been solid for the Colts as a part-time starter. Solid pick.
    - 2007: Anthony Gonzalez, WR, Ohio St. (#32) - anticipating Marvin Harrison's eventual retirement, the Colts surprised many by taking a WR inthe 1st round in 2007. After a decent start Gonzalez' carrier was plagued by injuries, and he has done almost nothing since 2008. Bust.
    - 2007: Tony Ugoh, OL, Arkansas (#42) - disasterous pick. The Colts trade their 2008 1st round pick to move into the early/mid 2nd round for Ugoh, considered a fringe 1st round OT. He was a major disappointment, and has done little for the Colts or subsequently. Bust.
    - 2008: Mike Pollak, OG/C, Arizona (#59) - with no 1st round pick due to the Tony Ugoh trade, Indy flamed out again on an interior lineman. Pollak has not emerged as a solid starting center in 4 years. Bust.
    - 2009: Donald Brown, RB, Connecticut (#27) - the Colts made Brown the second RB taken in the 2009 draft. He has been OK, but never really lived up to his draft status. And the Colts could have had LeSean McCoy. Meh.
    - 2009: Fili Moala, DT, USC (#56) - once hyped as a possible high 1st round pick, Moala never really developed at USC. He has started 30 games over the past 2 seasons, and has been serviceable if not more. Meh.
    - 2010: Jerry Hughes, DE, TCU (#31) - the Colts needed OL help for Peyton Manning, but bypassed Rodger Saffold for a speedy, undersized pass rusher in Hughes. He has done nothing in 2 years, starting 1 game with 21 tackles and 1 sack, and looks like a major bust.
    - 2010: Pat Angerer, OLB, Iowa (#63) - a tough, scrappy LB, Angerer was a perfect Polian type of player, and has lived up to expectations as a 2 year starter. He had 148 tackles in 2011. Excellent pick.
    - 2011: Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College (#22) - Castonzo played in 12 games and started all of them as a rookie, and played well. A solid start, and he looks very promising.
    - 2011: Ben Ijalana, OL, Villanova (#49) - Ijalana played sparingly as a rookie. He is a work in progress, and it is too soon to evaluate him.

    Bill Polian built a reputation for draft wizardry before it all came crashing down in 2011. The Colts had 13 1st and 2nd round picks over this 6 year period, for an average of 2.17/year. Unfotunately, there were more busts than successes: Anthony Gonzalez, Tony Ugoh, Mike Pollack, Fili Moala and Jerry Hughes were all huge disappointments. Donald Brown and Marlin Jackson were ok but not great picks. Joseph Addai, Kelvin Hayden, Tim Jennings and Pat Angerer were solid picks - Angerer perhaps the best pick of this period. Anthony Castonzo looks very promising. But the Colts missed out on some major talent, which had a long term effect on the team and became more obvious in 2011. There were, however, some notable late round draft success to make up for this.
  8. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic Supporter Supporter


    6. New Orleans Saints

    - 2005: Jammal Brown, OT, Oklahoma (#13) - Brown was somewhat erratic but a decent starting LT for 4 years before missing all of 2009 to injury. Deemed expendable, he was traded to Washington before the 2010 season. Meh.
    - 2005: Josh Bullocks, FS, Nebraska (#40) - Bullocks had 3 decent years for the Saints before missing most of 2008. He was signed by Chicago as a UFA prior to the 2009 season, and is now out of the league. Meh.
    - 2006: Reggie Bush, RB, USC (#2) - hyped beyond belief, Bush was expected to go #1 overall but slipped to the Saints. He never lived up to his lofty draft status, and was allowed to leave for Miami after his rookie contract expired. Meh.
    - 2006: Roman Harper, SS, Alabama (#43) - Harper has been a 6 year starter and core defensive player for the Saints. Solid pick.
    - 2007: Robert Meachem, WR, Tennessee (#27) - a speed burner, Meachem helped stretch the field for the Saints but never produced up to expectations. He was allowed to leave in FA for San Diego after his rookie contract. Meh.
    - 2008: Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC (#7) - the Saints traded up with the Patriots for Ellis, who has been solid but never lived up to his draft status. Meh. OTOH, the 3rd round pick that the Saints gave up was used on Shawn Crable, whereas the Saints used the 6th rounder they got from New England on Carl Nicks. So that makes it a GREAT trade for the Saints.
    - 2008: Tracy Porter, CB, Indian (#40) - Porter has been an excellent player for the Saints. His interception of Peyton Manning in the 2010 SB was one of the plays of the game. Excellent pick.
    - 2009: Malcolm Jenkins, DB, Ohio St. (#14) - hyped as the best defensive back in the 2009 draft, Jenkins started slowly as a rookie before becoming a solid starter his next 2 years. He has not lived up to his top-15 pick status, however. Solid, but not great.
    - 2010: Patrick Robinson, CB, Florida St. (#32) - the Saints may have reached for Robinson a bit. Taken during a run on CBs, Robinson struggled as a rookie but improved significantly in 2011 with 15 passes defended. A work in progress.
    - 2010: Charles Brown, OT, USC (#64) - Brown was considered a possible late 1st round talent who slipped a full round because of a lack of core strength. He still is a work in progress, and hasn't yet materialized as a full-time starter. Meh. But the Saints hit the jackpot in the 3rd round with TE Jimmy Graham.
    - 2011: Cameron Jordan, DE, Cal (#24) - predicted to go much higher, Jordan fell to the Saints at #24 overall. He played reasonably well as a rookie startjng 15 games, though his statistics were average. A work in progress.
    - 2011: Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama (#28) - the Saints traded their 2011 2nd round and 2012 1st to move back into the 1st round to select Mark Ingram. He underwhelmed as a rookie, and does not appear to offer the same integration into the passing attack as RBs Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles. A work in progress, but a disappointing first season.

    The Saints had 12 1st and 2nd round picks over the 6 year period. They also traded their 2009 2nd round pick to the NY Giants for TE Jeremy Shockey. Shockey was never as good as he had been earlier in his career, but he did help the Saints win a Super Bowl. I'd call that trade a meh/OK deal, but not great. In fact, none of the Saints' early picks have been dominant players for them, including #2 overall Reggie Bush in 2006. The Saints' best players since 2005 have come later in the draft - Jimmy Graham in the 3rd round, Jahri Evans in the 4th round, Carl Nicks in the 6th and Marques Colston in the 7th - and via free agency (Drew Brees, Darren Sharper, Darren Sproles). While they haven't had many outright busts in the first 2 rounds, the Saints haven't had many major successes either, and have had a bunch of "meh" picks.

    5. Green Bay Packers

    - 2005: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Cal (#24) - one of the great picks of all time. Rodgers could have gone #1 but slipped all the way to the Pack. He sat behind Brett Favre for 3 years, and the rest is history. Home run isn't adequate - this was a grand slam. It's always better to be lucky than good.
    - 2005: Nick Collins, FS, Bethune-Cookman (#51) - Collins has started every single game he has played over the pat 6 years,
    - 2005: Terrance Murphy, WR, Texas A&M (#58) - taken 3 spots before Vincent Jackson, Murphy's career lasted all of 3 games before his career was ended with a neck injury. Aaron Rodgers was good luck. This was bad - but call it a bust in terms of what the pick delivered, even though it's not Murphy's fault.
    - 2006: AJ Hawk, LB, Ohio St. (#5) - Hawk has been a solid but unspectacular player for the #5 pick overall, never living up to the hype or his huge rookie contract. He has been a decent starter at MLB and OLB, but never more. Meh.
    - 2006: Darryn Colledge, OL, Boise St. (#47) - Colledge spent 5 years as a starting guard for the Pack before moving to Arizona in 2011. Solid pick.
    - 2006: Greg Jennings, WR, (#52) - the Packers traded back from #36 with the Patriots and got the best WR in the second round in Jennings. He has been a key part of the offense since his rookie season. Home run.
    - 2007: Justin Harrell, DT, Tennessee (#16) - one of the biggest busts in a draft full of them, Harrell struggled with injuries and never materialized. He missed all of the 2009 season and almost all of 2010, and has been out of football since then. Bust.
    - 2007: Brandon Jackson, RB, Nebraska (#63) - Grant did little his first 3 years, then had a decent stretch as a starter when Ryan Grant was injured in 2010, but eventually lost his starting job to James Starks. He was signed by Cleveland for 2011 but missed the entire season, and is currently in limbo. Bust.
    - 2008: Jordy Nelson, WR, Kansas St. (#36) - Nelson had a decent first 3 years and then exploded in 2011 with over 1200 yards receiving and 15 TDs. He looks like a key part of the offense moving forward. Excellent pick.
    - 2008: Brian Brohm, QB, Louisville (#58) - Brohm never materialized as a pro QB, and is currently in limbo. Bust.
    - 2008: Pat Lee, CB, Auburn (#60) - Lee is a niced size DB who has yet to live up to his potential. He has started 1 game over 3 years and recorded 21 tackles and 0 interceptions. Bust.
    - 2009: BJ Raji, DT, Boston College (#9) - Raji was the best pick in the top 10 of 2009 after Matthew Stafford, and a cornerstone of the SB team. He's not in the Haloti Ngata class, but at the end of 2010 he was not too far off. Home run.
    - 2009: Clay Matthews, DE/OLB, USC (#26) - Matthews has been an electric pass rusher and All Pro 3-4 LB for the Packers over the last 3 seasons. He suffered a bit in 2011 from lack of another pass rushing threat. Home run.
    - 2010: Brian Bulaga, OT, Iowa (#23) - Bulaga has played both guard and tackle for the Packers, and looks like a long term starter. Solid pick.
    - 2010: Mike Neal, DE, Purdue (#56) - Neal has played in 9 games over the last two seasons, starting none and recording a grand total of 6 tackles. The Packers are looking for DL help in the 2012 draft. It's still early, but Neal looks like a bust.
    - 2011: Derek Sherrod, OT, Mississippi St. (#32) - Sherrod struggled a bit and was slow to develop, playing in only 5 games and starting none. The jury is out.
    - 2011: Randall Cobb, WR, Kentucky (#64) - Cobb had limited success as a rookie receiver, but was an electric return man. He looks like a key part of the offense moving forward.
  9. ZoisKing

    ZoisKing On the Game Day Roster

    #11 Jersey

    You are certainly a workhorse mayo.

    Everytime I look at Houston's first rounders I'm envious. I love our guys, but I was fond of a lot of the guys they picked in the years you listed.

    Watt was probably my favorite though. You could just tell he was going to be the next beast DE. He went a long way towards proving that in his first year.
  10. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic Supporter Supporter

    4. Baltimore Ravens

    - 2005: Mark Clayton, WR, Oklahoma (#22) - the Ravens have struggled with the WR position, and Clayton is no exception. Taken before Roddy White (27) and Vincent Jackson (61), Clayton never lived up to his draft status. Always injury prone, Clayton had 5 unremarkable years with the Ravens before moving on to St. Louis, where he has done nothing. Bust.
    - 2005: Dan Cody, LB, Oklahoma (#53) - the Ravens double-dipped with Oklahoma products with their first 2 picks and came up empty both times. Cody was an undersized DE/OLB with a nice motor, but injuries derailed his career. He missed all of his rookie season, then played in only 2 games in 2006, and missed all of 2007 to injuries, before being cut. That ended his NFL career. Bust.
    - 2005: Adam Terry, OT, Syracuse (#64) - from a pick acquired via a trade with the Pats, Terry never materialized as a starting caliber player. A massive 6'8" 335# RT, Terry bounced between reserve and starting roles for 4 years before being going through 3 teams over the next 13 months. He is out of the NFL. The Ravens passed up OT Dave Stewart, taken by Tennessee in the 4th round, who has been a rock at RT for the Titans. They also missed out on Justin Tuck and Frank Gore, taken in the next 10 picks after Terry. Bust.
    - 2006: Haloti Ngata, DT, Oregon (#12) - tied with Ray Rice as the best pick in this 6 year period. The Ravens moved up 1 pick from #13 to grab Ngata, who has been arguably the best player from the entire 2006 draft class, and the best defensive lineman in the NFL. Home run.
    - 2006: Chris Chester, OG/C, Oklahoma (#56) - the Ravens traded back from #44 with the Giants to select another Oklahoma product. While he lasted 5 years with the Ravens before moving on to the Redskins, Chester never became a consistent starter, and was switched between center, guard and tight end. Meh.
    - 2007: Ben Grubbs, OG, Auburn (#29) - Grubbs was a solid pick who helped steady the Ravens OL for 5 years before being signed in free agency by New Orleans this offseason. Excellent pick.
    - 2008: Joe Flacco, QB, Delaware (#18) - the Ravens traded back from #8, then traded back up to select Flacco as the 2nd QB after Matt Ryan. While he's been erratic, he has taken them to the playoffs for 4 consecutive years, and nearly to the Super Bowl in 2011. Excellent pick.
    - 2008: Ray Rice, RB, Rutgers (#55) - Rice is arguably the best all-around back in the NFL and the best player at his position after Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson. Home run.
    - 2009: Michael Oher, OT, Mississippi (#23) - the Ravens traded up a few spots with the Patriots to grab Oher, who fell unexpectedly to the 20's. After a solid rookie season at RT Oher struggled at LT in 2010, and was switched back to RT in 2011. He has lapses of concentration and makes some dumb mistakes, but is generally solid. Good, but not great pick.
    - 2009: Paul Kruger, DE/OLB, Utah (#59) - Kruger has underwhelmed at both DE and LB for the Ravens, starting only 1 game in the last 3 years and recording a grand total of 27 tackles. He looked like a bust, but had 5.5 sacks in 2011, so the jury is still out. Meh.
    - 2010: Sergio Kindle, DE/OLB, Texas (#43) - in one of the worst moves of his career, Ozzie Newsome traded back from 25 to take Kindle, who was considered a 1st round prospect by many. Kindle had microfracture questions and off-field issues, and sustained a skull fracture that kept him out for all of 2010 and most of 2011. He played in all of 2 games, recorded 0 tackles. He is on the bubble for 2012. Bust.
    - 2010: Terrance Cody, DT, Alabama (#58) - Ozzie Newsame was praised after the 2010 draft for picking up "2 first round picks" in the 2nd round in Kindle and Cody. But Cody was overweight and out of shape, and failed to make a major impact as a rookie. He did better as a sophomore, starting all 16 games and recording 34 tackles, as the Ravens ranked 2nd against the run in the NFL. But he has not yet become an elite DT. The jury is still out.
    - 2011: Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado (#27) - Baltimore took a huge gamble on the highly talented Smith, who had a ton of off-field issues. He had a quietly successful rookie year, playing in 12 games and recording 2 interceptions and 8 passes defended. He looks like a future long-term starter along with Lardarius Webb.
    - 2011: Torrey Smith, WR, Maryland (#58) - Smith had 50 receptions for 841 yards and 7 TDs as a rookie, and gave Joe Flacco a vertical threat for the first time. He looks like he will be a solid WR in the NFL for some time.

    The Ravens had a total of 14 1st and 2nd round picks over the 6 year period, for an average of 2.33 picks/year. Ozzie Newsome has a reputation as one of the best GMs in the league, and the Ravens did have some notable successes: Haloti Ngata, Ben Grubbs, Joe Flacco and Ray Rice have all been core players for the team. And Jimmy Smith and Torrey Smith had promising rookie season, though the jury is still out. But the other picks have underwhelmed. Michael Oher and Terrance Cody have contributed, though neither has lived up to expectations. Paul Kruger has been meh, as was Chris Chester. The entire 2005 draft was an epic failure, as was the trade back to select Sergio Kindle in 2010. The Ravens flopped on three 2nd round picks (Sergio Kindle, Dan Cody and Adam Terry) and were "meh" on a fourth (Paul Kruger). Ray Rice was their only clear "home run" in the 2nd round so far.

    3. New York Giants

    - 2005: Corey Webster, CB, LSU (#43) - with no 1st round pick because of the Eli Manning trade, the Giants went DB in the second round. Webster has been a maintstay of the secondary ever since. Excelent pick. Of course, they took Justin Tuck in the 3rd round - how could they have prioritized Webster over Tuck?
    - 2006: Mathias Kiwanuka, DE, Boston College (#32) - the Giants traded back from 25 with Pittsburgh to take Kiwi, who has played both DE and LB. He has not dominated, but has been a major part of the dominant DL that led to 2 Super Bowl wins. Solid ick.
    - 2006: Sinorice Moss, WR, Miami (#44) - the Giants traded up with Baltimore to take the undersized WR. Moss underwhelmed with 39 receptions in 4 years, and is out of the league. Bust.
    - 2007: Aaron Ross, CB, Texas (#20) - Ross missed most of the 2009 season and lost his starting job to Terrell Thomas, but started most of the 2008 and 2011 seasons and contributed significantly as a rookie. OK but not great pick.
    - 2007: Steve Smith, WR, USC (#51) - Smith had a superb 2009 season with over 1200 yards receiving and was a playmaker, but otherwise has done nothing for his career. He left for Philadelphia via free agency in 2011, and the Giants WR corps thrived without him. Meh/OK pick.
    - 2008: Kenny Phillips, FS, Miami (#31) - Phillips started slowly as a rookie and then missed most of his second season to injury. At one point his career was in doubt. But he has recovered nicely, and has been a solid starter the past 2 years. Solid pick.
    - 2008: Terrell Thomas, CB, USC (#63) - acquired one pick after Terrence Wheatley, Thomas has been a much better player. He took over as a starter for the injured Aaron Ross in 2009 and held on to that position until going on IR with an ACL injury in 2011. Solid pick.
    - 2009: Hakeem Nicks, WR, North Carolina (#28) - Nicks has been a major playmaker for the Giants and part of one of the best WR corps in the NFL. Excellent pick.
    - 2009: Clint Sintim, LB, Virginia (#45) - acquired via a pick from New Orleans in the Jeremy Shockey trade, Sintim struggled for 2 seasons and did little to justify his mid-2nd round selection before missing all of 2011 with an ACL injury. So far, he looks like a bust.
    - 2009: William Beatty, OT, Connecticut (#60) - considered a gifted LT prospect but lacking in core strength, Beatty has never been able to establish himself as a full time starter. Meh pick.
    - 2010: Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, USF (#15) - Paul was considered a raw prospect with freakish ability. He exploded as a sophomore, and looks to be perhaps the best DE in the NFL. Home run.
    - 2010: Linval Joseph, DT, East Carolina (#46) - a small school prospect, Joseph was considered somewhat raw and played little as a rookie, but started 15 games as a sophomore and played well. Solid pick.
    - 2011: Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska (#19) - considered a potential top-10 pick, the Giants were elated when Amukamara fell to 19. He struggled with injuries, however, and produced little as a rookie. Incomplete.
    - 2011: Marvin Austin, DT, North Carolina (#52) - a freakish physical talent with off-field issues, Austin was a boom-or-bust pick. He missed all of 2011 on IR. Incomplete.

    The Giants had 14 picks in the 1st and 2nd round over this 6 year period, for an average of 2.33/year. Jason Pierre-Paul and Hakeem Nicks were impact picks in the 1st round. Kenny Phillips, Aaron Ross and Mathias Kiwanuka have all been productive as well. Of the second round picks, Sinorice Moss and Clint Sintim look like the biggest busts, though William Beatty has not lived up to expectations. Prince Amukamara and Marvin Austin missed most of 2011 and are question marks.
  11. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic Supporter Supporter

    2. Pittsburgh Steelers

    2005: Heath Miller, TE, Virginia (#30) - Miller has been a solid starter for 7 seasons for the Steelers, and has made the Pro Bowl once. Solid pick.
    2005: Bryant McFadden, CB, FLorida St. (#62) - McFadden has been a solid if not spectacular CB for 7 seasons, 6 of them with the Steelers. OK/solid pick.
    2006: Santonio Holmes, WR, Ohio St. (#25) - the Steelers traded up with the Giants to take Holmes, the top rated receiver in 2006. He had off-field and personality issues but was also a dynamic playmaker and helped the Steelers to 2 Super Bowls. Good pick.
    2007: Lawrence Timmons, LB, Florida St. (#15) - Timmons was a bit of a surprise pick at #15. A speed rusher, he was then moved inside, where he has excelled, and is one of the best in the NFL. Great pick.
    2007: LaMarr Woodley, DE/OLB, Michigan (#46) - Woodley has teamed with James Harrison to form the best 3-4 OLB combo in the NFL. Home run.
    2008: Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois (#23) - the Steelers took Mendenhall ahead of Chris Johnson, Matt Forte and Ray Rice. He has showed flashes of briliance but also struggled with injuries and been somewhat controversial. His time may be over with the team. Meh/OK pick.
    2008: Limas Sweed, WR, Texas (#53) - Sweed struggled with injuries and lasted all of 2 seasons with the Steelers, producing on 7 receptions. He is out of the league. Bust.
    2009: Evander "Ziggy" Hood, DE, Missouri (#32) - the Steelers have not been as successful with their DE pipeline as with LBs. Hood became a starter in 2011, but has yet to perform at a consistently high level. Meh/OK pick.
    2010: Maurkice Pouncey, OG/C, Florida (#18) - Pouncey was an immediate starter and Pro Bowl player as a rookie, and is one of the best interior linemen in the league. Home run.
    2010: Jason Worilds, DE/OLB, Virginia Tech. (#52) - the Steelers have a strong track record of success with their OLBs and don't rush them. Worilds has not done much in 2 years, but it's too early to tell. Incomplete.
    2011: Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio St. (#31) - as with Ziggy Hood, Heyward has not yet established himself, getting limited playing time as a rookie. That should change with the Steelers' youth movement in 2012. Incomplete.
    2011: Marcus Gilbert, OT, Florida (#63) - Gilbert started 13 games as a rookie at RT in 2011, and looks like a solid pick so far.

    The Steelers selected 12 players in the 1st and 2nd rounds during this 6 year period, for an average of 2/year, one of the lower totals on this list. Lawrence Timmons, LaMarr Woodley, Maurkice Pouncey and Heath Miller have all been mainstays of the team. Santonio Holmes was extremely productive and the MVP of the 2009 Super Bowl, but was also a personality problem and was traded away. Rashard Mendall has also been productive but erratic and controversial, and may move on. Limas Sweed has been the most obvious bust to date, but recent picks other than Maurkice Pouncey have progressed slowly, and are all works in progress. Whether that changes with the Steelers' youth movement in 2012 remains to be seen. But the drafting since 2008 leaves something to be desired.

    1. New England Patriots

    2005: Logan Mankins, OG, Fresno St. (#32) - a WTF? pick when it was first announced, Mankins has been a multiple Pro Bowl guard and mainstay of the Pats OL. Brilliant pick.
    2006: Laurence Maroney, RB, Minnesota (#21) - the Pats were lauded for their aggressive selection of Maroney and Chad Jackson in 2006, but it backfired. Maroney showed flashes but battled injuries, and then regressed. He is out of the league. Meh/bust.
    2006: Chad Jackson, WR, Florida (#36) - Jackson had all of the physical tools and nothing else. He lasted 2+ seasons and did nothing. Bust.
    2007: Brandon Meriweather, S, Miami (#24) - Meriweather made 2 Pro Bowls for the Patriots but never really fit the team's style or met expectations. He freelanced too mcuh and gave up too many big plays. He was released prior to 2011. Meh.
    2008: Jerod Mayo, LB, Tennessee (#10) - considered a slight reach, Mayo has been a cornerstone of the defense and a multiple Pro Bowl player. Great pick.
    2008: Terrance Wheatley, CB, Colorado (#62) - also considered a reach. Wheatley battled injuries and never produced. The Pats took Wheatley one pick ahead of Terrell Thomas. Bust.
    2009: Pat Chung, S, Oregon (#34) - acquired via a pick from the Matt Cassel trade, Chung has been a solid core player in the secondary and provides a physical presence missing since Rodney Harrison. Solid pick.
    2009: Ron Brace, DL, Boston College (#40) - the Pats traded up from #47 with Oakland to select Brace in case Vince Wilfork could not be extended. They missed out on better players, especially Connor Barwin. Brace has never developed to warrant his 2nd round selection. Bust.
    2009: Darius Butler, CB, Connecticut (#41) - Butler was considered a steal in the second round, but after a promising rookie season he regressed and lost confidence. He was released after 2 seasons. Bust.
    2009: Sebastian Vollmer, OT, Houston (#58) - considered a huge reach, Vollmer has become the best RT in the NFL. Back problems held him back last year, but he is a beast when healthy. Home run.
    2010: Devin McCourty, DB, Rutgers (#27) - the Pats traded back twice to take McCourty ahead of the more heralded Kyle Wilson. McCourty made the Pro Bowl as a rookie, and despite some sophomore struggles looks like the best CB from the 2010 class. Excellent pick.
    2010: Rob Gronkowski, TE, Arizona (#42) - the Pats traded up 2 spots with Oakland to take Gronkowski ahead of Baltimore. He slipped to the second round on injury concerns, which have not yet materialized. Gronk has set the bar for the TE position at an all time high in only 2 years. Grand slam.
    2010: Jermaine Cunningham, DE/OLB, Florida (#53) - another "reach" pick, the Pats took Cunningham ahead of guys like Sean Lee and Carlos Dunlap. He played well as a rookie but then regressed last year. Incomplete.
    2010: Brandon Spikes, ILB, Florida (#62) - Spikes has provided a physical presence in the middle and some playmaking ability, with some off-field distrations mixed in. When healthy, he is a significant addition to the defense. Good pick.
    2011: Nate Solder, OT, Colorado (#17) - the Pats surprised many by passing on DLs in the rich 2011 draft and taking Solder, who was considered to have high upside but to not be ready. He immediately contributed at both RT and LT as a rookie and played at a high level, and should be the starting LT for the next decade. Excellent pick.
    2011: Ras-I Dowling, DB, Virginia (#33) - the Pats again surprised many by passing up a pass rusher for Dowling, a 1st round talent who slipped due to injuries. He played well for 2 games as a starter before being placed on IR. Incomplete, but promising.
    2011: Shane Vereen, RB, Cal (#56) - the Pats passed on Mark Ingram and traded back for Vereen, surprising many. He has tremendous tools, but a holdout and a short pre-season followed by injuries essentially sunk his rookie year. Incomplete.

    The Patriots drafted 17 players in the 1st and 2nd rounds over this 6 year period, tied for Green Bay for the most players drafted. That does not include the #31 pick in 2008 which was taken away for Spygate, or the #62 pick in 2007 which was traded to Miami for Wes Welker. Counting the Welker trade that works out to 3 picks/year, the most of any team on this list.

    The Patriots have had both major successes and failures. Logan Mankins, Rob Gronkowski, Jerod Mayo and Sebastian Vollmer have all made Pro Bowl or All Pro status, and are elite performers at their positions. Nate Solder had a strong rookie season and looks like a franchise left tackle. Pat Chung is a solid fixture at safety. Brandon Spikes provides a physical presence in the middle. But there have some 1st round picks who underperformed (Laurence Maroney and Brandon Meriweather) and a number of 2nd round failures, include CBs Terrance Wheatley and Darius Butler, DL Ron Brace, and WR Chad Jackson. The jury is still out on Ras-I Dowling (who looked promising in limited action as a rookie) and Shane Vereen. And Jermaine Cunningham had a promising rookie year but is a question mark.

    I'm not sure what all this shows. But I don't think that any of the "elite" drafting teams have been without their major misses in both the 1st and 2nd rounds. The draft a crapshoot, despite all the effort and analysis that goes into it, and the Pats do as well or better than most. Diversification seems to be a major part of their strategy.
  12. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic Supporter Supporter

    I put all of this together last month, and had someone else put it out on the other board. So all of the work was already done. But thanks.

    I made a huge mistake last year of evaluating JJ Watt too early. Watt was a relatively new convert to the DE position, and in the tape I saw of him from earlier in the year he was somewhat stiff. Box commented on this as well, and I think considered him more of a developmental guy. But Watt progressed at an incredible rate, and by the end of the season he was a totally different player. Probably as a result, I wasn't as high on him as several other people were, and I was dead wrong.
  13. ZoisKing

    ZoisKing On the Game Day Roster

    #11 Jersey

    Are those breakdowns ranked in any way mayo? If not, what's your opinion on who's drafted better?
  14. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic Supporter Supporter

    They are all very good drafting teams, so it's subjective. But I sort of roughly grouped them according to post-season success:

    - Teams 1, 2, 3 were the teams that won multiple Super Bowls in the past decade: New England, Pittsburgh and the Giants. I probably consider them the 3 best drafting teams.

    - Teams 4-7 were teams that won a single Super Bowl in the past decade: Green Bay, Baltimore, New Orleans and Indy. The Colts had a reputation under Polian for superb system drafting, though that reputation has been tarnished recently and it may have had more of an effect during the late rounds than early on. The Saints have also had some stunning late round successes (Carl Nicks, Marques Colston). I think Baltimore and Green Bay can make a claim to be regarded in the same class as the Pats, Steelers and Giants in terms of their drafting.

    - Teams 8-10 were teams that have "come close" but haven't won it all, especially Philly and San Diego. Houston belongs up there from a drafting point of view even though they've had less post-season success. The difference may be more of a failure of coaching than a failure of the FO.

    Again, it's largely subjective. But that was my rationale.
  15. dryheat44

    dryheat44 Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

    #11 Jersey

    I'll also defend the Bethel Johnson pick every time. We got arguably the NFLs best kick returner and a good kick cover guy. I'd consider that a successful pick, and whatever we got from him as WR was gravy.
  16. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic Supporter Supporter

    One thing to note is that for the 5 years between 2003 (Eugene Wilson) and 2009 (Pat Chung, Sebastian Vollmer) the Pats didn't have a successful 2nd round pick, not including trades:

    2004: Pick 64 used on Marquise Hill, who never developed before his tragic death. Pick 56 was traded for Corey Dillon, which was a successful trade.

    2005: Pats traded back from #64 with Baltimore for 3rd round picks in 2005 and 2006. Ellis Hobbs, taken with Baltimore's 3rd at 84 was reasonably succesful. Adam Terry, who the Ravens took at #64, hasn't done too much.

    2006: Chad Jackson was the worst 2nd round pick of the BB era, and cost a third for a trade up, to boot.

    2007: Pats traded out from #60 and got Wes Welker. Great trade.

    2008: Pick 62 used on Terrance Wheatley, who never developed, in part due to injuries.

    That's a pretty bleak stretch, and would be much worse if not for the Dillon and Welker trades.
  17. ctpatsfan77

    ctpatsfan77 Supporter Supporter

    #3 Jersey

    (1) Note that the Pats only made three second-round draft picks in that span. Yeah, they went "0-for-3," but that's still better than "0-for-5."

    (2) You can't really look at any of those picks and say "WTF were they thinking when they made that pick?" Yes, Jackson was a costly gamble that didn't pan out, but injuries also played a part in screwing things up here. Ditto for Wheatley.
  18. The Gr8est

    The Gr8est In the Starting Line-Up

    You really are a workhorse mayo, and I certainly appreciate what you bring to the table.

    As for what this shows, it shows that the Pats are as good, if not better, drafters than the other top teams, and the people who like to bash BB's drafting are either ignorant (which they no longer need to be if they read this thread), or they just want to be on the cutting edge of being able to identify a bust, and want to be able to proudly proclaim that they were the first person to identify player "X" as a bust.

    That's a strange way to show fanhood IMO, but to each his own I guess.
  19. patchick

    patchick Moderatrix Staff Member Supporter

    #50 Jersey

    I purposely didn't include picks traded away, in order to focus on talent selection in round 2. But if you broaden it to "what did they get for their 2nd-round draft capital," the Pats come out even better.

    Welker, Dillon and Hobbs all count in the success column, making it 10 successes from 17 picks (59%) -- incredibly, an average of a starter a year for the decade, just from round 2.

    The Steelers pick up 1/2 a success on 2 more picks. (They traded a 2nd & a 4th for 2 3rds one year; 1 of the 2 panned out, and the 2nd-round pick gets half credit for each.) That gives them 4.5/10 (45%), with fewer than half as many starters added to the roster over the decade.
    Last edited: May 24, 2012
  20. ZoisKing

    ZoisKing On the Game Day Roster

    #11 Jersey

    Pick up half a success? Haha. That just sounds funny:)

    When you look at what value the Pats have gotten for their 2nd rounders then they certainly come up as winners. Dillon and Welker were fantastic value in return for those spots.

    I'm still kind of surprised that Butler didn't pan out. I liked him a whole lot after his rookie season and thought that he'd develop quite well. He nosedived quickly.

    I think Chad Jackson is one reason the Patriots have strived so hard to find team captains and intelligent players to add to the mix. He was really the anti-Patriot in different respects, and it burned us. So based on the teams renewed high quality character talent search, you can add him into the successes column for his future draft contributions;)

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