The OL Draft: Reading Tea Leaves

[patchick]

For those of us who were confused about the Pats' evolving OL style, this draft class did nothing to clarify matters. They drafted one massive immovable object with questionable technique and athleticism, and one fast, agile, undersized technician. Combine that odd couple with the news that Cameron Fleming is training as a guard and what do you get?

Personally, I can't imagine a line with Jackson and Fleming at the two guard spots. That line would be massive but frighteningly lead-footed. I also can't picture moving Stork off of center, given how well he stabilized the position (and he's no LG ballerina either).

To me that points to a Fleming/Jackson battle for the RG spot and Mason/Wendell for LG. What do you think?

 

[everlong]

Mason has also been mentioned as a possible center. A line of Jackson, Mason and Flemming sounds more built for Rex's ground and pound. The flip side to that is they might run for a thousand yards..........against Indy!

 

[patsfaninpa]

I can see that. Hard to count on rookies to start. I'll guess Wendell at LG and Fleming-Jackson battle at RG. Edge to Fleming because of a season in the system.

Shaq being groomed to either replace Wendell at LG in 2016. Or, 6th OL on game day 46 because he'll be able to play C or G by then.

I think Shaq might find a role immediately in short-yardage package if we have 8 OL active on game day.

 

[mayoclinic]

For those of us who were confused about the Pats' evolving OL style, this draft class did nothing to clarify matters. They drafted one massive immovable object with questionable technique and athleticism, and one fast, agile, undersized technician. Combine that odd couple with the news that Cameron Fleming is training as a guard and what do you get?

You get 3-4 RGs and no LG. Ugh. Obviously, something has to give.

I think Jackson can probably step in at RG fairly quickly. Lots of experience, good size, and experience playing next to Bryan Stork makes the transition easier. That frees Cameron Fleming to be used as a 6th lineman/TE in jumbo packages and as a reserve T/G. Jackson doesn't have much positional versatility outside of RG, so I prefer that option.

At LG, I see a number of options:

1. Pats sign La'el Collins as a UDFA. Problem fixed, both in the short and long term. The Pats would have one of the top 3 OL groups in the NFL (along with Dallas and Cleveland). Probability = low (roughly 1/32).

2. Pats trade for or otherwise pick up Evan Mathis. Problem fixed for the short term. Probability = low, as it hasn't already happened and Chip Kelly indicated that no one has made an offer for Mathis.

3. Pats bring back Dan Connolly on the cheap for one more year while they groom an internal successor. Probability = moderate.

4. Pats move Ryan Wendell to LG for one more year while they groom an internal successor. Probability = moderate.

5. Pats move Shaq Mason to LG. Probability = high, but low probability that he is ready as a starter in 2015.

6. Pats move Shaq Mason to OC and Bryan Stork to LG. Probability = low. But high probability that they train Mason to be their long term backup center, as well as a playing him at guard. With a name like Shaquille Olajuwon Mason, center has to be in the mix.

7. Pats do something else. Probability = moderate/high. Probability if this occurs that we all go "WTF?" = high.

 

[everlong]

Somebody in the main forum brought up Shaq a a short yardage full back as well. I'm not sure how it would work but I'd love to see them try it and have him blow up the likes of Suggs or Sheldon Richardson.

 

[everlong]

You get 3-4 RGs and no LG. Ugh. Obviously, something has to give.

I think Jackson can probably step in at RG fairly quickly. Lots of experience, good size, and experience playing next to Bryan Stork makes the transition easier. That frees Cameron Fleming to be used as a 6th lineman/TE in jumbo packages and as a reserve T/G. Jackson doesn't have much positional versatility outside of RG, so I prefer that option.

At LG, I see a number of options:

1. Pats sign La'el Collins as a UDFA. Problem fixed, both in the short and long term. The Pats would have one of the top 3 OL groups in the NFL (along with Dallas and Cleveland). Probability = low (roughly 1/32).

2. Pats trade for or otherwise pick up Evan Mathis. Problem fixed for the short term. Probability = low, as it hasn't already happened and Chip Kelly indicated that no one has made an offer for Mathis.

3. Pats bring back Dan Connolly on the cheap for one more year while they groom an internal successor. Probability = moderate.

4. Pats move Ryan Wendell to LG for one more year while they groom an internal successor. Probability = moderate.

5. Pats move Shaq Mason to LG. Probability = high, but low probability that he is ready as a starter in 2015.

6. Pats move Shaq Mason to OC and Bryan Stork to LG. Probability = low. But high probability that they train Mason to be their long term backup center, as well as a playing him at guard.

7. Pats do something else. Probability = moderate/high. Probability if this occurs that we all go "WTF?" = high.

I was torn between useful and funny with that last bit so I just liked it.

The one thing about Shaq at center is he's going to neutralize even the biggest of NT's which has long been a Patriots issue and given the DL's in the division a plus. I don't think he takes over for Stork but it's intriguing.

 

[mayoclinic]

The one thing about Shaq at center is he's going to neutralize even the biggest of NT's which has long been a Patriots issue and given the DL's in the division a plus. I don't think he takes over for Stork but it's intriguing.

Stork held his own pretty well against big NTs last year, but I agree with your point. I disagree with those who characterize Mason as "undersized". He's short - there's a difference. Mason is a bowling ball, and 310# is not undersized for an interior lineman. He doesn't have the frame to get any bigger, but he's not Ryan Wendell. And he's tremendously powerful. His height and power give him a natural advantage at center. How he would handle making the line calls is another matter entirely.

 

[mayoclinic]

http://www.csnne.com/new-england-pa...ally-new-england-patriots-would-have-interest

If La'el Collins is cleared, 32 teams will "have interest". That's putting it mildly.

 

[everlong]

How he would handle making the line calls is another matter entirely.

That is the big question.

 

[patchick]

With a name like Shaquille Olajuwon Mason, center has to be in the mix.

How about that wave of Shaquilles in this year's draft? All born when the Shaq was the big new thing in the NBA. Must make him feel old.

 

[patsfaninpa]

La'el Collins could not only start at LG for a couple of years, he could eventually be Vollmer's replacements.

 

[Ivan]

http://www.csnne.com/new-england-pa...ally-new-england-patriots-would-have-interest

If La'el Collins is cleared, 32 teams will "have interest". That's putting it mildly.

I think a team will have to gamble early to get Collins, those that wait for full clearance will be too late. I put the likelihood of the Patriots getting him as very low.

 

[mayoclinic]

La'el Collins could not only start at LG for a couple of years, he could eventually be Vollmer's replacements.

I don't see Collins as a LT, but some do. RT and LG are pretty much a lock. As I mentioned, I think the Pats would have a top 3 OL:

OT: Solder, Vollmer, Collins, Cannon, Fleming
OG/C: Collins, Stork, Jackson, Mason, Wendell (possibly Cannon and Fleming as well)

I think a team will have to gamble early to get Collins, those that wait for full clearance will be too late. I put the likelihood of the Patriots getting him as very low.

I think the probability is very low, but if I were the Pats I wouldn't wait to reach out. It's not clear that Collins' agent will be doing much talking with anyone until the situation becomes clearer, but showing an interest can't hurt.

 

[patsfaninpa]

It should come down to two things.

1. Will he get the coaching to make him the best he can be, so he can cash in on his next contract.

2. Where will he make the most money?

--------------------------------------------

1. We should get a check-mark there.

2. He's likely to make more money with us over the next 3 years than any team with the possible exception of Seattle.

 

[mayoclinic]

It should come down to two things.

1. Will he get the coaching to make him the best he can be, so he can cash in on his next contract.

2. Where will he make the most money?

--------------------------------------------

1. We should get a check-mark there.

2. He's likely to make more money with us over the next 3 years than any team with the possible exception of Seattle.

As a UDFA, Collins will get a 3 year contract. There won't be a whole lot of difference in the value of that contract between teams, and the signing bonus difference is piddly. I'm not sure how much teams are allowed to do in terms of performance bonuses or escalators. He will be a RFA in year 4, and a UDFA in year 5. Assuming he is exonerated and plays up to his hype, Collins should make up a lot of the money lost in year #4, when he either gets a high tender and/or is signed to a lucrative offer sheet.

Jason LaCanfora has a nice discussion of the financial implications:

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/writer...etter-for-lael-collins-that-he-went-undrafted

Collins could get about $5.4M over 4 years as a UDFA with a 1st round RFA tender for year 4. Joel Bitonio got $5.46M over 4 years as the #35 prospect in 2014, with $3.7M guaranteed. The #19 overall pick in 2014, Ja'wuan James, signed a $8.4M contract over 4 years with a $4.45M signing bonus.

As Ian Rapoport noted:

If he’s cleared, La’El Collins’ free agency will be unprecedented. The money is capped, so it’s almost no factor. All about fit, role, etc.

https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/595298138690191360

The Pats can offer Collins a high probability starting LG role year 1, with potential starting RT and/or LT down the road, on a SB winner, with very good surrounding OL talent, and strong coaching. That may not be enough, but it should be a good starting point.

 

[I.M. Fletcher]

On paper, it's hard to think any team will beat Seattle in both culture and fit. They are desperate for a starting guard day one, while blocking for one of the great backs of the past 15 years.

Pats might have a shot, but I imagine they wouldn't be heartbroken if they missed out. I would be most interested if they targeted him in with a mind to move on from either vollmer or solder. Both are going to need big decisions shortly, and both would have high values around the league if they were shopped.

 

[YOUGOTMOSSED]

As a UDFA, Collins will get a 3 year contract. There won't be a whole lot of difference in the value of that contract between teams, and the signing bonus difference is piddly. I'm not sure how much teams are allowed to do in terms of performance bonuses or escalators. He will be a RFA in year 4, and a UDFA in year 5. Assuming he is exonerated and plays up to his hype, Collins should make up a lot of the money lost in year #4, when he either gets a high tender and/or is signed to a lucrative offer sheet.

Jason LaCanfora has a nice discussion of the financial implications:

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/writer...etter-for-lael-collins-that-he-went-undrafted

Collins could get about $5.4M over 4 years as a UDFA with a 1st round RFA tender for year 4. Joel Bitonio got $5.46M over 4 years as the #35 prospect in 2014, with $3.7M guaranteed. The #19 overall pick in 2014, Ja'wuan James, signed a $8.4M contract over 4 years with a $4.45M signing bonus.

As Ian Rapoport noted:


https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/595298138690191360

The Pats can offer Collins a high probability starting LG role year 1, with potential starting RT and/or LT down the road, on a SB winner, with very good surrounding OL talent, and strong coaching. That may not be enough, but it should be a good starting point.

One selling point for the Patriots is that there's a very real potential for post season bonus money (well, an extra 25K to about $155k). Don't know if that's enough to offset MA income tax.
A superbowl ring also gives huge leverage when negotiating your next contract (see Revis).
There's a real need at LG so he should get PT.
If/when he's in the clear, Pats should have a good shot at landing Collins, I would think.

 

[zimmy]

I'm pretty sure that they will play Connolly or Wendell at LG while they groom Mason. Depending on his development he could be in there by early/mid season or it might be a red shirt year.

Fleming will compete for the RG spot with Jackson.

Opening day line up would I guess be: Solder - Wendell/Connolly - Stork - Jackson - Vollmer.

Backups of Mason, Fleming, Cannon (and Kline if we don't bring back Connolly)

 

[rochrist]

Stork held his own pretty well against big NTs last year, but I agree with your point. I disagree with those who characterize Mason as "undersized". He's short - there's a difference. Mason is a bowling ball, and 310# is not undersized for an interior lineman. He doesn't have the frame to get any bigger, but he's not Ryan Wendell. And he's tremendously powerful. His height and power give him a natural advantage at center. How he would handle making the line calls is another matter entirely.

I thought he was 300?

 

[kennyb]

They'll probably change their minds and let him go supplemental. If he's cleared.

Mason will play lg and Jackson right.