First, thanks for letting me lurk and occasionally participate in discussions on your awesome forum. I’m a Seahawks fan but enjoy the (mostly) intelligent conversations I read here. Lots of good football fans. That said…
Seahawks 34-17.
Like most people who live outside of New England, my experience watching the Patriots is limited to playoff games (quite a few over the years given their long history of excellence) and a few regular season games when they happen to be on local TV. I'm a voracious reader of sports news and catch ESPN when I can so I'm probably as educated about the Patriots as most of you are about the Seahawks. I am, however, pretty knowledgeable about the Seahawks. Watched almost every game for many years and follow them closely.
That's all preamble to saying that my theory isn't complicated: pick the Seahawks until another team shows they're better. The Patriots may be that team but I don't expect them to be this week.
If the Seahawks play their usual style and don't make critical mistakes they wear New England down and win the game comfortably in the end.
The media and most fans focus on Seattle's defense – the LOB. I think they'll be fine despite the great talents of Brady and crew. I'm joint to focus my case for a Seattle victory today more on Seattle's offense, the under-estimated yin to Seattle's defensive yang, if you will.
Two weeks ago the Seahawks offense made several HUGE mistakes including 4 turnovers and almost zero yards in the first half alone. Despite that, they still managed to beat the Packers. Sure, the Packers had to bungle a few things to make that possible--most significantly the on-sides kick coverage--but the Hawks executed. Had Seattle's O played their normal game, they beat the Packers soundly. More time of possession, more rest for the Seattle D. The O probably scores another 10 points. And the Packers score 19 at the most and probably less. Re-look at the box score if you think I'm partaking in fine (legal) NW cannabis.
Fans who don't watch the Seahawks might try to argue that the Patriots D will force the same kind of mistakes. Maybe. But very very unlikely. I bet the Patriots coaches and players don't expect 5 freebies from the Seahawks on Sunday and neither do I. The Seahawks have been one of or THE leader in turnover differential for the last few years.
Here’s how I see it playing out.
One scenario I can see happening if the Seahawks get their running game establish in the first half is a bunch of long, grinding drives resulting in maybe 16 points. It's not magical or tricky how they do it. Good blocking and hard running by Lynch and overall tough play. In that scenario, the half ends fairly close....say 16-10.
That's the good news if you're a Patriot. The bad news if you're a Patriot is that after trying to tackle Lynch, chasing after Wilson, and dealing with Seattle's under-rated receivers in the first half, the Patriots D will be gassed for much of the second half and Seattle pulls away for the 34-17 win.
The second scenario is that as the Patriots are so focused on stacking the line and stopping Lynch and Wilson from running that the Seahawks see lots of man coverage in the secondary. In this scenario, the Seahawks have a few long, grinding drives and a few big plays and score 20 or 24. The Patriots have a very good secondary but with man coverage it only takes a small mistake for a receiver to get open and Wilson is better at hitting an open receiver than many of you think. Pats still score 10 and the half ends 24-10 Seattle. After the half, the Seahawks might be conservative and manage 10 more points for the 34-17 win. Or if the Patriots D us sufficiently tired and beat up the Seahawks could score more. 37? 41? They scored more than that in the Superbowl last year.
About Wilson. Despite the somewhat embarrassing blather from Scott Zolak when he helped call the last game between the Seahawks and Patriots, Wilson is not a "chuck and duck" QB. To Zolak's credit...sort of....he probably hadn't watched Wilson play before that game except for a few TV highlights. But I can say with confidence that most of you underestimate him. A lot of Seattle fans find it hard to believe that fans of opposing teams give him so little respect. Just look at his win/loss record since he started. Just look at his win/loss record against future hall of fame QB’s. Really.
This prognosticating is obviously based on lots of assumptions and the biggest is that the Seattle D does their job. I expect the Patriots offense will give them some trouble in the first half but I still don't expect them to score a lot. The Patriots strength in the short passing game plays right into the strength of the Seattle secondary. They give up completions but very few yards after a catch. And they tackle really hard. People like to refer to a stat that Seattle gave up more TD's to tight ends than all but two teams--11. They usually don't mention that five of those came in two games early in the season and coincided with key injuries in, you guessed it, the secondary. I think they've allowed one TD to a tight end since the eighth game of the season. But I digress....
Every team had tough guys but the physicality of the Seahawks in general and the secondary in particular has a way of beating teams down. Opposing players don't seem to want to get hit as much as the game goes on. Watch 2-3 Seahawks games and you'll see it happening. More stepping out of bounds instead of going for the extra yard. Dropped passes. Confused routes because the receivers are wondering where Kam Chancellor is. Are the Patriots tough? I’m sure they are. I gather that Gronk is big and physical and tough to bring down. Your RB appears to be a load. Your secondary is dangerous. Wilfork? Yikes. Brady...maybe less so.
But I honesty don’t think that the Patriots have faced a team like Seattle yet this year and probably not for a lot longer. Seattle is, at least for now, at least a little more physical than the rest of the NFL.
Which brings if full circle. Everyone knows about Seattle's defense although many still seem to under estimate it. But people REALLY under estimate Seattle's offense. Wilson doesn't usually throw 35 passes for 385 yards like Brady but that's because he doesn't have to. And he wins games, regardless of the opponent. He beats teams with crappy D and beats teams with good D. He beats teams with crappy O and teams with great O. Seattle offense is just as tough and grind-it-out as the D. They wear teams out.
Anyway, that's my semi-educated guess on what will happen. The Seahawk win because they're tougher.
But, if I'm wrong I'll come back Monday and admit it!
Have fun everyone.
