The Number One Priority IS Defensive End

[mgteich]

I might add Carimi and Wiesnewski as options at 33 (and Pouncey and Watkins), but I certainly strongly agree with your analysis.

This year feels a lot like 2003 when we had 2 first round picks and wanted one of the top DE's. We made a minor trade up for Ty Warren. We wanted to be sure we got one of the top DE's.

Maybe we should distinguish roster priorities from draft priorities.

I totally agree that the interior OL has to be addressed, but IMO it doesn't make sense to focus on the first round for that purpose. You could totally remake the line with something like Watkins or Ijalana at 33, Boling or Carpenter at 60, and Fusco at 92. But if your first round was, say, Pouncey & Watkins, you've pretty much passed on the rare chance to nab a legit 5-tech DL.

 

[cstjohn17]

I'm not so good at guessing whom BB might pick, but I think I have refined my guessing at whom he won't be as excited about ... at least in the early going. Let's just say those three discourage me because I can't see what they do well enough to project them as upgrades for any player currently on the NE roster at comparable costs.

I stink at predictions as well but IMO:
- Pouncey would become the teams best guard (unless Mankins signs) and also becomes Koppen's replacement
- Houston would be the best pass rusher on the team
- Heyward would be their 3rd best defensive lineman

Worst thingss could happen.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

I stink at predictions as well but IMO:
- Pouncey would become the teams best guard (unless Mankins signs) and also becomes Koppen's replacement
- Houston would be the best pass rusher on the team
- Heyward would be their 3rd best defensive lineman

Worst thingss could happen.

Well, Pouncy may be a shade more athletic than Koppen, but I'm not sold on him at Center. Further, a Guard in NE needs to be able to get out in front of a RB on running and screen plays, and not only a RB, but WRs on screens. Neal was nearly a gazelle, Mankins, Connolly, Light, Vollmer, Koppen, Kaczur, Wendell ... they all are great at getting out in front of a ball carrier at the next level and often into the secondary. Pouncey has a great 10 split, but the quickness and change of direction skills NE's top people have demonstrated in the past were not reflected in his Combine scores. His Pro-Day wasn't televised so there's no help for us on that front. Pittsburgh likes big hogs who play well in a phone booth, they use the other brother in a phone booth, keeping him home to protect Dental Ben. No help there. Finally, he's not a LT: Klemm (2000), Light (2001), Mankins (2005), Kaczur (2005), and Vollmer (2009) are the players NE drafted when they took an OL in the first three rounds. Kaczur is the closest match to Pouncey athletically, and he was arguably an early 4th round pick taken with a comp pick at #100. NE took Kenyatta Jones at #96 in the 4th round of the 2001 draft, I have very little Combine data for him, but his 10 split is very fast for an OL and he played BB for South Florida too = good movement skills. Pouncey, by the standards of the NE OL draft picks who have gone before, is a #92 or later pick.

Houston wouldn't upgrade TBC as a pass rusher, he might as a run stopper (but that's not certain), he's not an upgrade in coverage. I don't see Houston as an upgrade for Moore.

Heyward has the talent to be one of the best, but the kid I saw on the field last season before Ohio State's bowl game wouldn't upgrade Wright or Deadrick, and may be hard pressed to upgrade Brace. I didn't see the heart, just the hype. If I was to draft an Ohio DL, Larimore in the seventh would be the best value, he was the kid getting doubled more often than not.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Heyward has the talent to be one of the best, but the kid I saw on the field last season before Ohio State's bowl game wouldn't upgrade Wright or Deadrick, and may be hard pressed to upgrade Brace. I didn't see the heart, just the hype. If I was to draft an Ohio DL, Larimore in the seventh would be the best value, he was the kid getting doubled more often than not.

This is an excellent point. In the bowl game he was Tarzan, in the regular season he was Jane.

I also question how badly this kid wants it. I know Reiss is high on him, but guys with no fire in the belly should be shunned at all costs.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Ochmed, I'd be curious for your observations on Jarvis Jenkins. If the Patriots reach round 2 without a DE prospect, he seems like the closest thing left.

I really can not say that I have seen enough tape on him to get a great feel, but from what I have seen, he has the measurables to play DE in our system. However he also plays high and on the edges. Really struggles to anchor and sink the hips at the POA. Looks a lot like a one gap player, but because his technique is so weak, I can't rule out there might be some raw material that could work for us. Probably would need two solid years of intense work in BB's system before he would be considered a decent backup.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

IThis year feels a lot like 2003 when we had 2 first round picks and wanted one of the top DE's. We made a minor trade up for Ty Warren. We wanted to be sure we got one of the top DE's.

I agree it does feel like 2003 and I have a feeling that this year BB might not let the draft fall to him, instead he seems well positioned to make something happen.

No idea what that something is, but I was thinking about some moves that might depress me and ruin my draft, just to prepare myself for that initail let down I get after every BB first round pick, not named Seymour or Wilfork or Warren.

1.) We trade a bunch of bullets to move up and take CB Prince Amurkaura?

2.) We trade a bunch of bullets to move up and take OT Costanzo??

3.) We trade a bunch of bullets to move up and take DT Fairley???

See the move up the draft board would heighten my anticipation, then BB drafts a guy I think is a bonehead, and I get that super letdown, total depression. Then the bonehead shows up to camp and starts from day #1 and either wins or almost wins defensive ROY. I'm back feeling really good again by season end.

I call this the BB draft roller coaster ride. It is not for the faint of heart.

 

[Patriot Missile]

I agree it does feel like 2003 and I have a feeling that this year BB might not let the draft fall to him, instead he seems well positioned to make something happen.

No idea what that something is, but I was thinking about some moves that might depress me and ruin my draft, just to prepare myself for that initail let down I get after every BB first round pick, not named Seymour or Wilfork or Warren.

1.) We trade a bunch of bullets to move up and take CB Prince Amurkaura?

2.) We trade a bunch of bullets to move up and take OT Costanzo??

3.) We trade a bunch of bullets to move up and take DT Fairley???

See the move up the draft board would heighten my anticipation, then BB drafts a guy I think is a bonehead, and I get that super letdown, total depression. Then the bonehead shows up to camp and starts from day #1 and either wins or almost wins defensive ROY. I'm back feeling really good again by season end.

I call this the BB draft roller coaster ride. It is not for the faint of heart.

Move up to take Costanzo? That is a claws on the chalkboard moment for me.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

I agree it does feel like 2003 and I have a feeling that this year BB might not let the draft fall to him, instead he seems well positioned to make something happen.

No idea what that something is, but I was thinking about some moves that might depress me and ruin my draft, just to prepare myself for that initail let down I get after every BB first round pick, not named Seymour or Wilfork or Warren.

1.) We trade a bunch of bullets to move up and take CB Prince Amurkaura?

2.) We trade a bunch of bullets to move up and take OT Costanzo??

3.) We trade a bunch of bullets to move up and take DT Fairley???

See the move up the draft board would heighten my anticipation, then BB drafts a guy I think is a bonehead, and I get that super letdown, total depression. Then the bonehead shows up to camp and starts from day #1 and either wins or almost wins defensive ROY. I'm back feeling really good again by season end.

I call this the BB draft roller coaster ride. It is not for the faint of heart.

Mayo still loves you!

 

[cstjohn17]

See the move up the draft board would heighten my anticipation, then BB drafts a guy I think is a bonehead, and I get that super letdown, total depression. Then the bonehead shows up to camp and starts from day #1 and either wins or almost wins defensive ROY. I'm back feeling really good again by season end.

I call this the BB draft roller coaster ride. It is not for the faint of heart.

Amen brother, hold on tight.

 

[VJCPatriot]

With all the shennigans over the NFLPA who knows if there will even be a franchise tag and what Mankins situation might be, also Koppen and Connoly get abused by the higher end DL's in the AFC

All that being said, I think a lot of what happens will be driven on the day and who falls to #17 or near #17. perhaps Aldon Smith, Robert Quinn or Julio Jones

I don't understand how two outside linebacker prospects and a WR prospect would conceivable help prevent Koppen and Connolly from being abused? Help me out here.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Mayo still loves you!

I wish I could say the same, but that guy does nothing for me. And to this day I am still waiting to see his name appear in the "big play" column.

He he ever picked off a pass or caused a fumble? What? Maybe one of each in his career?

Meanwhile Willis has more in any one season of his career than Mayo has in his entire career!

I just don;t get why all the lvoe for "four yard downfield tackle" Mayo.

 

[VJCPatriot]

I wish I could say the same, but that guy does nothing for me. And to this day I am still waiting to see his name appear in the "big play" column.

He he ever picked off a pass or caused a fumble? What? Maybe one of each in his career?

Meanwhile Willis has more in any one season of his career than Mayo has in his entire career!

I just don;t get why all the lvoe for "four yard downfield tackle" Mayo.

And you hate Mayo because he's not Patrick Willis... Ok suit yourself. Mayo was only the leading tackler in the NFL last season and tackling is of high value in this defense. I'm sure you're chalking that up as nothing special but I disagree. Different players have different skills. Mayo's not a turnover machine, but that's not what he's here for.

I for one think that you highly overrate Quinn. I don't see BB giving up multiple assets to move up for a conversion project. Defensive End is where the talent AND the value coincide in this year's draft. We'll have to agree to disagree.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

I wish I could say the same, but that guy does nothing for me. And to this day I am still waiting to see his name appear in the "big play" column.

He he ever picked off a pass or caused a fumble? What? Maybe one of each in his career?

Meanwhile Willis has more in any one season of his career than Mayo has in his entire career!

I just don;t get why all the lvoe for "four yard downfield tackle" Mayo.

I know your feelings, which makes it fun to tug your leg now and again my friend ... though I might have to smother some laughter if BB landed Fairley in the draft.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

And you hate Mayo because he's not Patrick Willis... Ok suit yourself. Mayo was only the leading tackler in the NFL last season and tackling is of high value in this defense. I'm sure you're chalking that up as nothing special but I disagree. Different players have different skills. Mayo's not a turnover machine, but that's not what he's here for.

I for one think that you highly overrate Quinn. I don't see BB giving up multiple assets to move up for a conversion project. Defensive End is where the talent AND the value coincide in this year's draft. We'll have to agree to disagree.

Not sure I ever said I would ever trade up for Quinn. I did say he was #1 on my OLB list though. PS: I still wobble back and forth on that because I am not convinced his medical and character issues are resolved enough for BB to draft the kid.

On the Mayo vs. Willis debate, here is what I am saying. Both were drafted at about the same place in the draft. Both went to 3-4 teams. Both play the same position in 3-4 defenses. Yet Willis makes a ton of big plays as well as all the routine plays and Mayo leads the NFL in tackles 4 yards downfield.
I understand BB wants defenders on the field that can tackle, but I don;t think he gives anybody a pass on making big plays. Doesn;t seem like something he would do.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

I know your feelings, which makes it fun to tug your leg now and again my friend ... though I might have to smother some laughter if BB landed Fairley in the draft.

I feel you my brother, you know what I'm saying?

I got nothing but respect for your tug! Peace my friend.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

I feel you my brother, you know what I'm saying?

I got nothing but respect for your tug! Peace my friend.

God bless you, on to the next opposing viewpoint! :rocker:

 

[MaineMan]

Not sure I ever said I would ever trade up for Quinn. I did say he was #1 on my OLB list though. PS: I still wobble back and forth on that because I am not convinced his medical and character issues are resolved enough for BB to draft the kid.

On the Mayo vs. Willis debate, here is what I am saying. Both were drafted at about the same place in the draft. Both went to 3-4 teams. Both play the same position in 3-4 defenses. Yet Willis makes a ton of big plays as well as all the routine plays and Mayo leads the NFL in tackles 4 yards downfield.
I understand BB wants defenders on the field that can tackle, but I don;t think he gives anybody a pass on making big plays. Doesn;t seem like something he would do.

IDK, it's not like Bruschi made a ton of big plays, either. Might have something to do with the different versions of the 3-4 (BB's being the "stop big plays first; make big plays second" style). Then too, Mayo had a solid D-line in front of him only in his rookie (DRoY) season, then Jarvis Green in front of him at RDE his 2nd season (when Mayo was injured) and, in 2010, played behind the crappiest D-line the Pats have fielded under BB. Maybe we get the D-line (especially RDE) straightened out, Mayo doesn't have to worry about compensating so much for the sieve up front and has more opportunities to make big plays at a rate more comparable to Willis.

 

[supafly]

Still holding out hope that the team takes a shot with Greg Romeus, although I have a feeling that may have to be done in the 3rd to definitely secure him, and that will likely be too early for us. Hell, we took a shot on Tate in the 3rd, although it isn't known yet as to what extent Romeus will play next year either.

I watch a lot of Big East ball, living here in **** hole Pittsburgh, and actually have had feelings last year (09 season) that Romeus would've been one of the best 3 or 4 DE's in the draft--until his injury of course.

He has good athleticism, very good size, and causes havoc--almost reminds me of another great DE from Georgia back in 2001. I still think that with the high number of picks that they have, they can afford to take a shot here.

 

[MaineMan]

Still holding out hope that the team takes a shot with Greg Romeus, although I have a feeling that may have to be done in the 3rd to definitely secure him, and that will likely be too early for us. Hell, we took a shot on Tate in the 3rd, although it isn't known yet as to what extent Romeus will play next year either.

I watch a lot of Big East ball, living here in **** hole Pittsburgh, and actually have had feelings last year (09 season) that Romeus would've been one of the best 3 or 4 DE's in the draft--until his injury of course.

He has good athleticism, very good size, and causes havoc--almost reminds me of another great DE from Georgia back in 2001. I still think that with the high number of picks that they have, they can afford to take a shot here.

Mostly for S&G, I put together a list of DE/OLB prospects' college stats. The (number) denotes the season they "started". QBH = Quarterback "hurries".

Kerrigan (3) --- 191 TT - 54 TFL - 30.6 sk -- 2 QBH -- 7 PD - 13 FF
Ayers (3) ------ 181 TT - 27 TFL - 13.0 sk -- 0 QBH - 10 PD -- 5 FF
Clayborn (3) --- 172 TT - 35 TFL - 17.0 sk - 17 QBH -- 7 PD -- 6 FF
Cunningham (3) - 147 TT - 32 TFL - 17.5 sk - 11 QBH -- 7 PD -- 5 FF
Sheard (3) ----- 139 TT - 35 TFL - 19.5 sk - 38 QBH - 14 PD -- 5 FF
Romeus (3)* ---- 135 TT - 38 TFL - 19.5 sk - 17 QBH - 11 PD -- 4 FF
Reed (3) ------- 107 TT - 24 TFL - 16.5 sk -- 1 QBH -- 5 PD -- 5 FF
-
Acho (2) ------- 131 TT - 31 TFL - 18.0 sk - 20 QBH -- 6 PD -- 8 FF
Karl Klug (2) -- 121 TT - 26 TFL -- 9.5 sk -- 9 QBH -- 8 PD -- 3 FF
Smith (2) ------ 112 TT - 29 TFL - 16.0 sk -- 1 QBH -- 7 PD -- 2 FF
Houston (2) ---- 105 TT - 34 TFL - 18.5 sk -- 3 QBH -- 3 PD -- 3 FF
-
Quinn (1) ------- 52 TT - 19 TFL - 11.0 sk - 12 QBH -- 3 PD -- 6 FF
-
* Romeus' stats are 2007-09 only (inj 2010)

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Mostly for S&G, I put together a list of DE/OLB prospects' college stats. The (number) denotes the season they "started". QBH = Quarterback "hurries".

Kerrigan (3) --- 191 TT - 54 TFL - 30.6 sk -- 2 QBH -- 7 PD - 13 FF
Ayers (3) ------ 181 TT - 27 TFL - 13.0 sk -- 0 QBH - 10 PD -- 5 FF
Clayborn (3) --- 172 TT - 35 TFL - 17.0 sk - 17 QBH -- 7 PD -- 6 FF
Cunningham (3) - 147 TT - 32 TFL - 17.5 sk - 11 QBH -- 7 PD -- 5 FF
Sheard (3) ----- 139 TT - 35 TFL - 19.5 sk - 38 QBH - 14 PD -- 5 FF
Romeus (3)* ---- 135 TT - 38 TFL - 19.5 sk - 17 QBH - 11 PD -- 4 FF
Reed (3) ------- 107 TT - 24 TFL - 16.5 sk -- 1 QBH -- 5 PD -- 5 FF
-
Acho (2) ------- 131 TT - 31 TFL - 18.0 sk - 20 QBH -- 6 PD -- 8 FF
Karl Klug (2) -- 121 TT - 26 TFL -- 9.5 sk -- 9 QBH -- 8 PD -- 3 FF
Smith (2) ------ 112 TT - 29 TFL - 16.0 sk -- 1 QBH -- 7 PD -- 2 FF
Houston (2) ---- 105 TT - 34 TFL - 18.5 sk -- 3 QBH -- 3 PD -- 3 FF
-
Quinn (1) ------- 52 TT - 19 TFL - 11.0 sk - 12 QBH -- 3 PD -- 6 FF
-
* Romeus' stats are 2007-09 only (inj 2010)

The only drawback to this is using the reported stats where some schools don't report QBH (Reed for example was credited with several QBH in the Iowa game alone per a recent article I read where the author had just finished watching film in order to make his own independent assessment, yet your data source only gives you 1 - fun and games!). Nice comparison though, thanks for sharing your work!