The Next 4 Weeks

[mayoclinic]

Starting today teams are free to apply the franchise and transition tags to players. NFL Combine interviews and exams start as early as this Wednesday, with the first positional workouts beginning on Saturday. Free agency starts March 11, 3 weeks from tomorrow. The next 4 weeks will pretty much start to bring things in focus, including:

- Which potential FA targets for the Pats are tagged. Greg Hardy, Alex Mack, TJ Ward and Lamarr Houston are possibilities, with Mack the most likely Pats target of that group.

- Whether the Pats use the franchise tag on any of their players - unlikely, IMO.

- How the Pats deal with Vince Wilfork's situation. Something needs to be resolved, and quickly given Wilfork's injury status and $11.5M+ cap hit. The Pats' won't have much room to maneuver in FA unless they either cut or restructure Wilfork.

- Aqib Talib's and Julian Edelman's situations should be resolved. By the end of the 1st week in FA I expect they will either be re-signed with the Pats or will have signed with someone else.

- Possible cuts/restructures to free up cap space, including an extension for Devin McCourty.

- Whether any of the "big name" FA targets are possibilities. If the Pats run to form they won't start addressing needs until the second week of FA, but by that point most of the big names will have been signed. That includes guys like Talib, Edelman, Michael Johnson, Greg Hardy, Alex Mack, TJ Ward, Lamarr Houston, Linval Joseph.

- How potential targets of interest perform/interview at the Combine.

The Pats probably have an initial draft board in place. The Combine will answer a lot of questions about potential prospects - including stuff that we don't see, such as interviews and medical exams/reports. By the time FA opens they will likely have revised their draft board and gave a good sense of potential draft targets, and the positional depth in the draft. The remaining 2 months up to the draft should be mostly tweaking their board/evaluations and revising priorities based on FA.

I think that the next 4 weeks will have a tremendous impact on how the 2014 Pats' shape up, and in what direction they are heading. Maybe more than any other 4 week period in the offseason.

 

[Get it shawtaay]

The next 4 weeks = THE COMBINE

 

[Ivan]

I agree with the OP, it is going to be a critical month for them. Unfortunately I think the Suggs deal is going to make it much harder for them to get a deal done with Wilfork as I think they overpaid Suggs and he is the same age and had a similar injury (albeit not as severe) to Wilfork.

 

[everlong]

- How potential targets of interest perform/interview at the Combine.

This made me think, how cool would it be if NFLN had Mayock and a few of the other analysts have a set series of ten questions they ask every combine participant and they air them by groups as half hour specials. That would be epic for us draft geeks. Imagine an interview like Ryan Leaf when asked what's the first thing you're going to do once you get drafted and the guy answers party in Vegas with my friends. UMMMM.....ya you're off my draft board.

 

[mayoclinic]

Fortunately I think the Suggs deal is going to make it much harder for them to get a deal done with Wilfork as I think they overpaid Suggs and he is the same age and had a similar injury (albeit not as severe) to Wilfork.

Fixed it for you.

Much as I love Wilfork and respect what he's done, I think the worst thing the Pats could do would be to give him a Suggs-like deal, as Field Yates suggests:

Terrell Suggs-type deal ahead for Vince Wilfork? - ESPN Boston

I agree that the Ravens overpaid for Suggs, and I think it will come back to bite him. But Suggs is 15+ months removed from coming back from his Achilles' injury. Wilfork hasn't shown that he can recover from a more severe injury, and his greater weight and family history of diabetes make his recovery much more problematic. To give him an extension before he's proven that he can recover to a meaningful level would be foolhardy. To not address his cap situation prior to FA leaves the Pats with limited options. I only see one logical way out of that dilemma.

 

[mayoclinic]

Imagine an interview like Ryan Leaf when asked what's the first thing you're going to do once you get drafted and the guy answers party in Vegas with my friends. UMMMM.....ya you're off my draft board.

Gronk might have answered the same thing.

 

[everlong]

Gronk might have answered the same thing.

Probably? :rocker:

 

[mayoclinic]

With the Combine in the rear-view mirror and just over 24 hours left for teams to apply the Franchise/Transition tag, and the 2014 cap officially set at $133M, things are beginning to come into focus.

Guys tagged so far: DE Greg Hardy (Carolina), TE Jimmy Graham (New Orleans), K Nick Foles (NY Jets).

Noteable names not yet tagged: DE Michael Johnson (Cincinnati), DE/DT Lamarr Houston (Oakland), DT Linval Joseph (NY Giants), OC Alex Mack (Cleveland), S TJ Ward (Cleveland), S Jarius Byrd (Buffalo).

 

[mayoclinic]

Interesting tidbit from Mike Reiss today, FWIW:

Last year was the first time NFL teams had the legal tampering period as part of free agency, and the Patriots used it as a deadline for their dealings with Wes Welker. By the time the official start of free agency opened three days later, they had made the decision to move on to Amendola, because they didn't want to lose Welker and Amendola. No reason to think this year will be any different -- with cornerback Aqib Talib the player in question. That's why I think we should have a definitive answer on Talib's status by the start of free agency on March 11.

Quick-hit thoughts around NFL & Patriots - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

 

[Coach42]

Interesting tidbit from Mike Reiss today, FWIW:



Quick-hit thoughts around NFL & Patriots - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

Yup. You got to think that Talib is the biggest domino in determining the Patriots FA signings and draft. CB is either going to be a major need or a lesser need.

 

[Keyser Söze]

I'm torn on Talib. He's gotten injured the last two AFCCG but I don't want to start over at CB. Not signing him means taking a CB early in the draft when we have other needs to address. I say sign him and add some stability to our CB position for the first time in a while.

 

[Coach42]

I'm torn on Talib. He's gotten injured the last two AFCCG but I don't want to start over at CB. Not signing him means taking a CB early in the draft when we have other needs to address. I say sign him and add some stability to our CB position for the first time in a while.

My feelings as well. Talib is an elite player at his position when healthy, that's a tough guy to let walk. The only way I'd even consider it would be if the coaching staff/ FO saw Ryan making a huge leap in year 2.

 

[Keyser Söze]

My feelings as well. Talib is an elite player at his position when healthy, that's a tough guy to let walk. The only way I'd even consider it would be if the coaching staff/ FO saw Ryan making a huge leap in year 2.

Especially because if Talib signs elsewhere, BB will likely take a CB early (yikes!!!) someone from Eastbum**** University.

 

[mayoclinic]

With under 90 minutes left until the tag window has expired, the Redskins have used the franchise tag on Brian Orapko, per ProFootballTalk:

Redskins tag Orakpo | ProFootballTalk

Seattle will not use the tag on Michael Bennett, as John Schneider previously said at the Combine:

No tag for Michael Bennett | ProFootballTalk

And Miami has agreed with on a deal with Brent Grimes.

As of right now Michael Johnson, Lamarr Houston, Linval Joseph, TJ Ward, Alex Mack, Alterraun Verner also all remain unsigned and not designated with the franchise or transition tags.

 

[mayoclinic]

Officially, 4 players received the franchise tag designation: Jimmy Graham, Greg Hardy, Brian Orakpo and Nick Foles. In addition, Alex Mack and Jason Worilds received the transition tag designation.

 

[manxman2601]

Interesting idea I saw on twitter was for the Pats, rather than re-signing Talib, to use that money on Jarius Byrd or TJ Ward. They could then draft a CB (Kyle Fuller perhaps) and improve the secondary that way. That's a lot of money to commit to the safety position but it means that, aside from Arrington, there's little invested at CB.

I'm not saying I'd do it but it was a different take.

 

[patfanken]

Interesting idea I saw on twitter was for the Pats, rather than re-signing Talib, to use that money on Jarius Byrd or TJ Ward. They could then draft a CB (Kyle Fuller perhaps) and improve the secondary that way. That's a lot of money to commit to the safety position but it means that, aside from Arrington, there's little invested at CB.

I'm not saying I'd do it but it was a different take.

Given that the Pats are likely to extend McCourty this off season, that would be a HUGE amount of money to expend on the S position, and leave us in a weaker position at CB. But then again it brings into question an issue I broached 2 seasons ago, and one which I might make a thread of at some point this off season, which is: " With the evolution of current NFL passing attacks, has the safety position become more important than the CB position"

At some point it might be interesting to throw that one around. Right now the franchise tag on CB's is almost twice as much as a S. So if you think S is becoming more important, maybe spending your DB money there is actually a good value than the cost of paying 2 CB's big money.

 

[Off The Grid]

Jason Worilds received the transition tag designation.

My boy's gettin' Paid!! :rocker:

 

[mayoclinic]

My boy's gettin' Paid!! :rocker:

Worilds was going to get paid, whether by the Steelers or someone else. Reportedly a lot of teams had interest in him.

He's a good example of an athletic prospect who took some time to convert positions, but is finally showing what he is capable of. Very explosive coming out of Virginia Tech (38" VJ and 10'9" BJ with 24 reps@225 = 71 explosiveness score) and with mobility reminiscent of DeMarcus Ware for a 6' 1 1/4" 254# DE (4.49 40 + 1.53 10-split + 4.13 SS + 6.95 3-cone = 7.10, which is in the elite range for a guy of his position and size). But he played pretty down from a 3-point stance at Virginia Tech and had no LB experience. His explosiveness is pretty apparent now coming off the edge.

 

[Off The Grid]

My boy's gettin' Paid!! :rocker:

Worilds was going to get paid, whether by the Steelers or someone else.

No kidding!! But that's no reason not to celebrate, baby!!

Jason Worilds, my much-maligned Binky from the 2010 Draft is getting Paid!! :rocker:

Could Jerry Hughes ~ my other much-maligned Dragoon from the 2010 Draft ~ be next??