The Moss Effect: how the Pats fared with Moss on sideline

[BradyManny]

I intended to re-watch the Cowboys game with the intention of noting any passing plays without Moss. So far, I'm through one half, and it's getting increasingly harder b/c Moss is basically in on every play, (74 out of 80 against the Cowboys).

Here are the three first half passing plays with Moss on the sideline and the result:

*1st quarter 13:10 on the clock, 2nd & 10
Roy Williams blitzes, untouched, Brady throws the ball away to avoid sack

1st quarter 8:42 on the clock, 2nd & 7
More pressure from the Cowboys, 5-man rush, OL breaks down and Brady is pressured, forced to throw the ball away

*2nd quarter 10:33 on the clock 2nd & 10
5-man rush, Brady looks to Stallworth, isn't open, pressured and sacked, fumble returned for TD

*Moss was given a breather for these two plays b/c he had gone deep the preceding play.


OK, so obviously this is a small sample size, but the fact remains. In the first half, Brady was 0-3 with a fumble returned for a TD when Moss was on the sideline. The Cowboys rushed 5 each time (they rushed 5 half the game anyway) and had success each time. It does seem like they brought more men up to the line with Moss off the field.

Again, small sample size, but found it interesting.

 

[Kdo5]

Making catches or not when Moss is on the field the offense is excellent. His mere prescense on the field is great enough.

 

[psychoPat]

Good observation!
That's impressive.
I had no idea we were so vulnerable without #81.

Need more data points, though, before any solid conclusion.

 

[ALP]

if we wanted to, we could have brady throw it to moss 75% of the time...and his completion % would be on par with the first 3 games...

however after game 3 we stopped doing taht, and we brought stallworth in as well...and brady's incompletions went up...

agisnt miami, when we dont have watson...watch out for anotehr 100 yd game from moss..

 

[BradyManny]

Need more data points, though, before any solid conclusion.

Absolutely, but fortunately (or unfortunately for the sake of this experiment), they aren't going too many plays without 81 in there!

 

[Rob0729]

The strip sack was because of a blown blocking assignment and Matt Light was out of the game on that play. I think it was a coincidence. That could have easily have happened on a play Moss was in with Matt Light out.

Same could be said with the other plays. I don't know the specifics plays pointed out, but several times in the first half they had Kaczur at LT and O'Callahan at RT and Light on the bench. I don't remember the specific plays, but I do remember that we had problems with line protection when Light was out and Kaczur was out of position.

 

[ALP]

The strip sack was because of a blown blocking assignment and Matt Light was out of the game on that play. I think it was a coincidence. That could have easily have happened on a play Moss was in with Matt Light out.

Same could be said with the other plays. I don't know the specifics plays pointed out, but several times in the first half they had Kaczur at LT and O'Callahan at RT and Light on the bench. I don't remember the specific plays, but I do remember that we had problems with line protection when Light was out and Kaczur was out of position.

i also remember taht...but after teh second time they did it...light wasnt moved again

 

[Rob0729]

Sorry, my bad. The first two examples were because O'Callahan was in. The Strip sack was in part because because Light and Mankins blocking assignments and no one picked up Greg Ellis leaving him to rush Brady free.

From Mike Reiss' blog:

On the second-quarter play, Brady appeared to expect Stallworth to break off his route faster than he did. Meanwhile, left tackle Matt Light and left guard Logan Mankins both blocked down, allowing Greg Ellis as a runaway rusher to hit Brady from the blindside.

http://www.boston.com/sports/football/patriots/reiss_pieces/2007/10/

 

[BradyManny]

The strip sack was because of a blown blocking assignment and Matt Light was out of the game on that play. I think it was a coincidence. That could have easily have happened on a play Moss was in with Matt Light out.

True, but maybe Brady gets the ball out quicker to Moss if he's in there. I don't really know what happened with Stallworth on the sideline, some kind of miscommunication or perhaps they read the D differently.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

great work. thanks.

as you said it's a small sample, and 81 clearly had nothing to do with the blown block, but otherwise I hope your analysis proves not to be predictive, as, in that case, it's scary...