The Long-Awaited U-H Horizontal Value Board

Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by dryheat44, Apr 14, 2010.

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  1. dryheat44

    dryheat44 Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

    Sep 14, 2004
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    #11 Jersey

    I decided to do things a bit different this year, so here's the prelim stuff:

    1) This is value based on the Patriots roster as of right now, 3:48 PM on April 14.
    2) It is Patriots-specific, based on their current offensive and defensive schemes. Which is why you'll see Sam Bradford with a 4th round grade.
    3) For the sake of preserving bandwith, I've limited my picks for 7th/UDFA values to three per position and taken guys such as Trevard Lindley, whom will almost certainly be drafted, off those lists. In fact, I tried to take the longview with those guys, ones who figure can improve with better coaching and better health, as opposed to someone who might be in better shape to contribute right now.
    4) I really can't evaluate K/P/LS. I think a punter is in the cards. Matt Dodge of East Carolina is my favorite, but it's not like I've watched him take 100 snaps and punts from different distances and weather conditions.
    5) Since last year, I've created a new position, which is denoted here as H-B, just to separate in-line tight ends from "move" tight ends (which is the new "shutdown" corner").
    6) Here is the important part, and major change. I've attempted to make this a "living" draft board. That is, some values will fluctuate (downwards) after each draft pick. The values you see are factored with the assumption that that particular position hasn't been drafted yet. For example, if we draft Sam Bradford in the fourth, all other quarterbacks fall to UDFAs. For another, more realistic example, if a defensive end is drafted in round two, the other defensive ends on the board will lose at least a half-round worth of value, and perhaps considerably more. I think this is a realistic approach. I can't imagine Belichick will draft four safeties because they happen to be the best value at the time.
    7) I am not a professional.

    First Round Value:
    DE Ndamukong Suh Nebraska
    DE Gerald McCoy Oklahoma
    OLB Derrick Morgan Georgia Tech
    OT Russell Okung Oklahoma St
    OT Trent Williams Oklahoma

    Late 1st/Early 2nd
    ILB Rolando McClain Alabama
    OLB Jerry Hughes TCU
    OLB Brandon Graham Michigan
    OT Bruce Campbell Maryland
    OT Charles Brown USC
    RB CJ Spiller Clemson
    S Eric Berry Tennessee
    TE Jermaine Gresham Oklahoma
    WR Golden Tate Notre Dame

    Mid 2nd
    C Maurkice Pouncey Florida
    CB Joe Haden Florida
    CB Kyle Wilson Boise St
    DE Arthur Jones Syracuse
    DE Jared Odrick Penn St
    OLB Koa Misi Utah
    OLB Sergio Kindle Texas
    OLB Ricky Sapp Clemson
    S Earl Thomas Texas
    TE Rob Gronkowski Arizona
    WR Arrelious Benn Illinois
    WR Demaryius Thomas Georgia Tech
    WR Taylor Price Ohio
    WR Dez Bryant Oklahoma St

    Late 2nd/Early 3rd
    CB Devin McCourty Rutgers
    CB Kareem Jackson Alabama
    OT Anthony Davis Rutgers
    RB Ben Tate Auburn
    RB Ryan Matthews Fresno St
    WR Blair White Michigan St
    WR Mardy Gilyard Cincinnati
    WR Andre Roberts The Citadel

    Mid 3rd
    CB Akwasi Owusu-Ansah Indiana Pennsylvania
    CB Al Verner UCLA
    H-B Aaron Hernandez Florida
    H-B Dorin Dickerson Pittsburgh
    H-B Clay Harbor Missouri St
    ILB/OLB Daniel Te'o-Nesheim Washington
    RB Montario Hardesty Tennessee
    RB Jahvid Best California

    Late 3rd/Early 4th
    CB AJ Jefferson Fresno St
    CB Patrick Stoudamire Western Illinois
    DE Vince Oghobaase Duke
    DE Brandon Deaderick Alabama
    DE Al Woods LSU
    DE Clifton Geathers South Carolina
    ILB/OLB James Ruffin No Iowa
    OT Jared Veldheer Hillsdale
    OT Brian Bulaga Iowa
    RB Jonathan Dwyer Georgia Tech

    Mid 4th
    C Matt Tenant Boston College
    ILB Danny Batten South Dakota St
    ILB/OLB AJ Edds Iowa
    NT Terrence Cody Alabama
    OLB Jason Pierre-Paul South Florida
    OLB Jason Worilds Virginia Tech
    OLB Thaddeus Gibson Ohio St
    OLB Adrian Tracy William & Mary
    RB Chris Brown Oklahoma
    RB Toby Gerhart Stanford
    RB James Starks Buffalo
    TE Scott Sicko New Hampshire
    TE Jimmy Graham Miami
    TE Jeff Cottam Tennessee
    WR Joe Webb UAB
    WR Scott Long Louisville
    WR Damian Williams USC
    WR Carlton Mitchell South Florida
    WR Eric Decker Minnesota
    WR Kyle Williams Arizona St

    Late 4th
    C JD Walton Baylor
    C Ted Larsen North Carolina St
    DE Tyson Alualu Cal
    G John Jerry Mississippi
    G/NT Mike Iupati Idaho
    G/OT Rodger Saffold Indiana
    H-B Dennis Pitta BYU
    OLB Eric Norwood South Carolina
    OLB Tim Knicky Stephen F. Austin
    OLB Lindsey Witten UConn
    OT Will Barker Virginia
    OT Derek Hardman Eastern Kentucky
    QB Sam Bradford Oklahoma
    QB Jimmy Clausen Notre Dame
    S TJ Ward Oregon
    S Myron Rolle Florida St
    S/CB Jerome Murphy South Florida
    TE Tony Moeaki Iowa
    WR Armanti Edwards Appalachian St
    WR Jordan Shipley Texas
    WR/RB Dexter McCluster Mississippi

    Early-Mid 5th
    DE Corey Peters Kentucky
    H-B Jameson Konz Kent St
    OLB Aaron Morgan Louisiana-Monroe
    S Barry Church Toledo
    S Jeromy Miles UMass
    WR Emmanuel Sanders SMU
    WR Jacoby Ford Clemson
    WR Bryan Anderson Central Michigan
    WR Duke Calhoun Memphis
    WR David Gettis Baylor
    WR Chris McGaha Arizona St

    Mid-Late 5th
    CB David Pender Purdue
    CB Javier Arenas Alabama
    CB/S Chris Cook Virginia
    CB/S Brandon Ghee Wake Forest
    CB/S Amari Spivey Iowa
    DE Doug Worthington Ohio St
    G Mitch Petrus Arkansas
    G Jon Asamoah Illinois
    G Charlie Tanner Texas
    ILB Brandon Sharpe Texas Tech
    ILB Brandon Spikes Florida
    OLB Jermaine Cunningham Florida
    OLB Dane Fletcher Montana St
    Last edited: Apr 14, 2010
  2. dryheat44

    dryheat44 Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

    Sep 14, 2004
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    #11 Jersey

    Sixth Round
    C Kevin Matthews Texas A&M
    CB Nolan Carroll Maryland
    CB RJ Stanford Utah
    CB Walter Thurmond Oregon
    CB Crezdon Butler Clemson
    CB Aaron Berry Pittsburgh
    CB Ben Burney Colorado
    CB Kevin Thomas USC
    CB/S Myron Lewis Vanderbilt
    DE Sean Lissemore William & Mary
    G Shaun Lauvao Arizona St
    G Kurtis Gregory Missouri
    G Shelley Smith Colorado St
    G Marshall Newhouse TCU
    ILB Jason Beauchamp UNLV
    ILB Jacob Cutrera LSU
    ILB (FB) Travis Goethel Arizona St
    NT Cam Thomas North Carolina
    NT Dan Williams Tennessee
    NT/DE Linval Joseph East Carolina
    NT/DE Torrell Troup Central Florida
    NT/DE Jay Ross East Carolina
    OLB Denzel Burrell Virginia
    OLB George Johnson Rutgers
    OLB Rahim Alem LSU
    OT Thomas Welch Vanderbilt
    OT Dennis Landolt Penn St
    QB Jonathan Crompton Tennessee
    RB Joique Bell Wayne St
    RB Joe McKnight USC
    RB Lonyae Miller Fresno St
    RB Deji Karim Southern Illinois
    RB Andre Anderson Tulane
    RB Anthony Dixon Mississippi St
    RB LeGarrette Blount Oregon
    RB Michael Smith Arkansas
    RB Andre Dixon UConn
    S Rashad Jones Georgia
    S Major Wright Florida St
    S Kurt Coleman Ohio St
    S Chad Jones LSU
    TE Michael Hoomanawanui Illinois
    TE Michael Palmer Clemson
    TE Jim Dray Stanford
    TE Colin Peek Alabama
    TE Garrett Graham Wisconsin
    TE Anthony McCoy USC
    TE Greg Boone Virginia Tech
    TE Caz Piurowski* Florida St
    WR Brandon Lafell LSU
    WR Dezmon Briscoe Kansas
    WR Damola Adeniji Oregon St

    C John Estes Hawai'i
    C Phil Costa Maryland
    C Garrett Anderson South Carolina
    CB Ross Weaver Michigan St
    CB John Destin Tulsa
    CB Josh Morris Weber St
    DE Robert Rose Ohio St
    DE Trey Jacobs Liberty
    DE Charles Alexander LSU
    G Dorian Brooks James Madison
    G Brian Simmons Oklahoma
    G Matt McCracken Richmond
    H-B Jeff Cumberland Illinois
    H-B Jesse Rack Buffalo
    H-B Cody Slate Marshall
    ILB Mike Johnson No Alabama
    ILB Ayanga Okpokowuruk Duke
    NT Kade Weston Georgia
    NT Ekom Udofia Stanford
    NT Callahan Bright Shaw
    OLB Chris McCoy Middle Tennessee St
    OLB Matt Marcorelle* Delaware
    OT Michael Shumard Texas A&M
    OT Andrew Tyshovnytsky Fordham
    OT Matt Kopa* Stanford
    QB Bill Stull Pittsburgh
    QB Matt Nichols Eastern Washington
    QB Andy Schmidt Eastern Michigan
    RB Keiland Williams LSU
    RB Dmitri Nance Arizona St
    RB Stafon Johnson USC
    S Mike Newton Buffalo
    S Chinonso Echebelem Tulane
    S Chris Maragos Wisconsin
    TE Mickey Shuler Penn St
    TE Nate Byham Pittsburgh
    WR Kelton Tindal Newberry
    WR Dustin Woods Miami (OH)
    WR EJ Morton-Green Morgan St
    Last edited: Apr 14, 2010
  3. midwestpatsfan

    midwestpatsfan Third String But Playing on Special Teams

    Sep 15, 2004
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    #95 Jersey

    First off, WOW! great work and fun to read. I will definitely use this as a tool to do some last minute research on players. 2 names stuck out to me and was hoping you could give me your reasoning. 1 is Arthur Jones in the 2nd round tier and Aluala much further down in the 4th. What do you see in Jones that makes you like him that much better considering all the buzz behind Aluala?
    Last edited: Apr 14, 2010
  4. DaBruinz

    DaBruinz Pats, B's, Sox Supporter

    Feb 8, 2005
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    +1,359 / 105 / -72

    #50 Jersey

    I am floored by some of your value ratings:

    Jon Asamoah - mid 5th rounder??
    Danny Batten - mid 4th??? At a position he's never played in, none-the-less.
    James Ruffin - late 3rd/early 4th??? The guy is rated as a 7th round/FA
    Terence Cody - mid 4th???
    Brandon Ghee - Mid/late 5th???
  5. reflexblue

    reflexblue Supporter Supporter

    Aug 11, 2006
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    +954 / 14 / -7

    #91 Jersey

    Thank you uncle heat, it looks like it was a lot of work.
  6. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks Supporter Supporter

    Mar 13, 2005
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    +25 / 1 / -0

    But you can be had?
  7. kurtinelson

    kurtinelson In the Starting Line-Up

    Nov 17, 2004
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    +54 / 6 / -3

    #37 Jersey

    I like your board Uncle H.

    I know its along shot, but based on your board I'd love to see:

    22. B. Graham OLB
    44. G. Tate WR
    47. J. Ondrick DE
    53. B. Tate RB
    119. D. Pitta or T. Moeki TE
  8. Coach42

    Coach42 Third String But Playing on Special Teams

    Feb 16, 2009
    Likes Received:
    +89 / 8 / -12

    #87 Jersey

    Good work, nice effort I really appreciate the work you put in on that. Could you explain Golden Tate over Dez Bryant?
  9. dryheat44

    dryheat44 Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

    Sep 14, 2004
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    +87 / 2 / -0

    #11 Jersey

    I really don't factor the mainstream much in my opinion. Very briefly:

    1. I don't find guards very valuable, except for the elite. Asamoah is about the #5 rated (to me) guard, if he's healthy.

    2. Batten (and Ruffin, and others) seem a bit high. Again, it's specific to Patriots needs right now...and if they don't get a linebacker earlier, what is commonly called "a reach" could, and should, happen. Now, every year when I mock this out, there are usually 2nd round guys available in the 3rd, 3rd round guys available in the fifth, and 4th round guys available in free agency. What it means is I probably give too many guys equivalent grades. One year I only ranked 75. I think it's about 200 this year. Depends on my mood really. As you'll see in the vertical sort, (tomorrow perhaps), they're not ranked all that highly relative to other LBs. Although I like either one better than the short and slow Gator.

    3. Yes. Originally I had Cody as a #2, but with Wilfork signed long term, and capable backups on the team, the fourth round is about as high as I'm willing to draft a guy whom isn't going to play all that much (remembering that one of the assumptions is a 3- defense). Same reasoning as Bradford and Clausen, really.

    Thanks for the comments. I'll address more tomorrow.
    5. Cornerback's really not a need (hence Haden in the 2nd), and there's something about Ghee's game I really don't like.
  10. sg14

    sg14 On the Game Day Roster

    Apr 8, 2007
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    This guy makes the All Name team, G Matt McCracken Richmond

    Draft him for name only,

    Reminds me of Wallace and Grommit,,,
  11. dryheat44

    dryheat44 Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

    Sep 14, 2004
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    +87 / 2 / -0

    #11 Jersey

    First, let me explain the asterisks, which somehow I forgot to explain. Those three players are awaiting the NCAAs final ruling on receiving a sixth year of eligibility. I don't know why the NCAA waits so long. It looks like Piurowski and Marcorelle will be granted an extra year, Kopa denied.

    To the question of Tate v Bryant, I hate Prima Donna WRs. They're almost always more trouble than they're worth. I mean there's a reason two all-pro WRs in their primes were traded this week. Well, one traded and one given away. I expect Bryant to be the last draft pick to sign a contract, and I don't trust Bryant to go to work after he gets paid. To me, those things negatively impact his value. Not to the point of completely removing him from my board (cough -- Mike Williams), but definitely sliding him down past where his talent would have him. If he had Larry Fitzgerald's character, he could go #1 overall.

    In contrast, Tate is reported to be a subpar route runner, but I think this is probably due to the fact that Weis basically used him exclusively for screens and flys. I think by Training Camp he'll be up to speed. While I think that in time Benn could be the best WR in the draft, until I know how Brandon Tate is recovering from injury and picking up the playbook (Bill Belichick could answer this for me, but he won't), I'm assuming that I might need a WR to line up across from Randy Moss week 1. Thus, G Tate has additional value to the Patriots.

    To the point of Jones v Alualu, I just feel that Jones is a better fit in a 2-gap 3-4, and while Alualu has a non-stop motor and good intangibles, Jones is a bigger and better football player. If Jones doesn't get hurt two years ago, he goes in the first round. When the season starts, he'll be two years removed from the knee injury and almost a year past the torn pectoral. Since he recently benched 30 reps, the chest doesn't concern me much. Alualu's a good story...but there's a significant risk that he becomes a good story the way Dan Klecko was a good story.
  12. WelshPat

    WelshPat Third String But Playing on Special Teams

    Sep 29, 2008
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    +0 / 0 / -0

    I think the Pats will have Spikes and Brandon Ghee both rated much higher than Myron Rolle. I get why people like him, but he is what he is as a player, average to below average
  13. patsfaninpa

    patsfaninpa In the Starting Line-Up

    Sep 15, 2004
    Likes Received:
    +567 / 13 / -5

    Saw Syracuse at Penn St this year. Arthur Jones stuffed PSU's running game. And, he didn't have all that much talent around him like Iowa and Ohio St who did the same thing to PSU. I can see us taking him in 2nd round if we don't fill that position in the first round.
    I'm kind of leaning to something like;
    1 B.Graham - OLB. Michigan's defense under Rodriguez has been awful. But, it never affected his play.
    2a. G. Tate - WR - Hope he's there. You just couldn't tackle him after he got the ball.
    2b. A. Jones - DE - Cuse
    2c Will probably trade out. But, would probably take a rb here.

    What do you think of Andrew Quarless - TE - PSU? He's a specimen. Had a questionable attitude early in his career. But, supposedly turned it around. He even played on PSU's punt team and I saw him make a few tackles in the open field. Interview is the key with him I'm sure. I'd love to here his response when Belichick asks him about his tats on the back of each arm. Gods one left arm, Gift on right arm.
  14. dryheat44

    dryheat44 Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

    Sep 14, 2004
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    +87 / 2 / -0

    #11 Jersey

    Good, not great, tight end. There's enough talented TEs in this draft that I don't see the need to take a chance on him to see if he's changed his attitude.
  15. jeffbiologist

    jeffbiologist Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

    Dec 17, 2007
    Likes Received:
    +2 / 0 / -0

    I see how you value guards relatively low, but how do you value Tackles so high(1st-2nd)on THIS team?? We have essentially 3 starters right?? I understand the value that these players have in the league but even after the season we have 2 signed long term.....If Cody is going in the 4th(??)wouldnt some of these Tackles slip as well??
  16. rsd

    rsd On the Game Day Roster

    Sep 18, 2006
    Likes Received:
    +13 / 0 / -4

    Dryheat, love your stuff, and I remember reading this in past years.

    Out of curiosity how "accurate" do you think your boards have been in comparison to the Patriots drafting and also just in general how well have some of your bigger binkies performed whether they were drafted by the Patriots or not?
  17. dryheat44

    dryheat44 Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

    Sep 14, 2004
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    +87 / 2 / -0

    #11 Jersey

    I don't think Light will be here in 2011. I don't believe Cody will be around in the fourth. I believe that if I was running the Patriots draft, I wouldn't draft him until the fourth. Pioli will snap him up in the second.
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