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The Line In Vegas Is Steady Dropping!

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by Haterproof, Jan 24, 2008.

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  1. Haterproof

    Haterproof Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    The Pats are now 12 point favorites.I can almost gaurentee you it will drop to 11 by the end of the day.Hopefully it can fall to single digits.I'm loving this.
     
  2. JoeSixPat

    JoeSixPat Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    I am too - seeing as the point spread has to do with keeping equal money on each side of the bet and less with predictions of the outcome, it can have some psychological impact.

    Seeing as the Patriots do best when disrespected, this, along with talking heads predicting a Giants victory, bodes very well for a Patriots win.
     
    Last edited: Jan 24, 2008
  3. PatsFanSince74

    PatsFanSince74 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    MGM Mirage has the line at 12.5, but you're right that just about everyone else has it as 12.

    TradeSports, which is a pretty good indicator of the Conventional Wisdom since people are betting their money and not just expressing their opinion, has it as a 49% probability that the Pats cover a 12.5 point spread, meaning that the spread is set at just about the right point from Vegas' point of view--at that spread, it's viewed as a toss-up. TradeSports has a Pats victory as an 82% probability. These numbers haven't changed materially over the last 24 hours, so there's no sign that the spread is going to go down (or up) by a whole lot more, unless there is some sort of news event that changes things. It's noteworthy that this didn't budge during all of the hoopla over Brady's "boot," suggesting that these folks aren't gullible.
     
    Last edited: Jan 24, 2008
  4. chaserpat58

    chaserpat58 Rookie

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    i hope the spread in the game is much much larger
    :D
     
  5. bigdgp

    bigdgp Practice Squad Player

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    I've been tracking the lines since Sunday and I haven't seen anything move significantly. The offshore houses are all between 11 & 12 the Vegas casinos are between 12-13. What establishment are you seeing the line move at?
     
  6. DefenseRules

    DefenseRules Pro Bowl Player

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    #12 Jersey

    I hope it drops to 3. :p
     
  7. National Sports Advisors

    National Sports Advisors Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

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    Good. I plan on putting a nice bet on the Pats when I'm out there. Let it keep dropping.:D
     
  8. karran_s

    karran_s On the Game Day Roster

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    The bookmakers typically have a spread based on the team favored by the gambling public. Most will bet on the Patriots, who are heavily picked by almost everyone to win. The real question then is not the win but by how much.

    In the early part of the season, the gamblers were winning big as the Pats blew out their opponents. This caused the spread to increase as the house was always losing. Now, it's coming down to close games and the spreads are decreasing.

    I think the house will be foolish to lower the spread any more. I think the odds are heavily favoring a high scoring game right now and the Pats will beat the spread by a wide margin. It should be a boon to all the betters out there, as they will recover the money they lost in previous games, where the Pats did not blow out their opponents as expected.

    If you have a few dollars to gamble, I would take 12 points and bet on the Patriots.
     
    Last edited: Jan 24, 2008
  9. 80Brown

    80Brown On the Roster

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    I'm sure a quick Google search will take me to the right site, but since I'm at work and any site associated with gambling would probably be blocked, can anyone tell me what the over/under is?
     
  10. Patsfanin Philly

    Patsfanin Philly Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    #95 Jersey

    Last edited: Jan 24, 2008
  11. FibSeq13478

    FibSeq13478 Practice Squad Player

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    Good. I like the direction it is going in. I just hope on superbowl day Pats upset the Giants. :D
     
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