The likely top 16

[ctpatsfan77]

Off The Grid Approves of This Message.

I'm afraid that the surfeit of alleged 1st Round QB's might well trigger The Law of Supply and Demand against our interests, and see a chunk of those guys fall to the 2nd and beyond...But there're enough teams that could be construed as needing QB help ~ and enough foolish men ~ that a RUN on QB's might very well ensue!!

In short: If Gabbert and Newton go early enough ~ a distinct possibility ~ then all it would take is ONE fool who is ~ unfathomably ~ enamored with either Locker or Mallett to to draw them BOTH into the Vortex.

4 in the top 16 ~ though not likely ~ IS In Play.

OTOH, if BUF doesn't take a QB at 3, you can expect teams making a run at 28 or 33 to get ahead of them at 34.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Ah, soothing words from Dr. Box.

I suspect that deep down, the real problem is that i know the tiny handful of players I really want will be long gone.

It's a great year to be a free-agent cornerback in the NFL. Even low-profile ones like Routt are getting a ton of money this offseason, which does not bode well for the Pittsburgh Steelers.

 

[MaineMan]

The Skins or the Texans could reach for Phil Taylor.

 

[patsfaninpa]

Ya know. It's not illegal to trade up. I think Washington is a great candidate to move up with. From our end and theirs. We might be able to get Cam Jordan there. From their angle. 1. If they really want Locker, I'm sure he'll be there at 17. 2. Even if they don't want Locker, they need to rebuild that roster lacking depth because they always used to trade their picks. So 17 and 60 to move up to 10 is a good value move for them. For us, Cam Jordan come on down!! I see him in the elephant role in the 3-4 and de in the 4-2-5. Can still get an ol at 28. We can probably get close to another pick by moving back from 33. Say, to 40-42. And, we get their 3rd. If we move back from 33 to the 40's, I'm thinking Randall Cobb. I was hoping he'd drop to 60. But, I traded that. Doubt he lasts until mid 70's.


As for who else might move up. M. Wilson - LB - Illinois. Might have moved up with his 4.44 forty yesterday. Maybe a team like Detroit which is weak at lb could use him. If Dareus, Jordan, Peterson and Amakamura are gone. I can see Houston picking Phil Taylor too.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Giving up a 2nd round pick to move up 7 spots is a steep price to pay. I'll pass. Cam Jordan looks like a good player but he's got some questionmarks as well. In any case, wouldn't the Redskins covet Jordan themselves?

 

[patsfaninpa]

Giving up a 2nd round pick to move up 7 spots is a steep price to pay. I'll pass. Cam Jordan looks like a good player but he's got some questionmarks as well. In any case, wouldn't the Redskins covet Jordan themselves?

They need help everywhere. That's why they need that extra 2nd rounder. Speculation is they like J.Locker. Why not trade down and get your guy? And, get the extra pick.

 

[dryheat44]

And it gets worse...with news that Julio needs foot surgery, he becomes the candidate to fall out of the sweet sixteen....a player that Belichick probably wouldn't consider there.

 

[Metaphors]

And it gets worse...with news that Julio needs foot surgery, he becomes the candidate to fall out of the sweet sixteen....a player that Belichick probably wouldn't consider there.

Barring complications, he could be healthy before the draft...and certainly before he would ever have to take the field for a team. He did enough at the combine that his pro day really isn't necessary. I think his floor is still at 14 with the Rams.

 

[sevengables_2207]

Green is a very nice player, but the Pats could have stayed last year and got Bryant. Yes, different types but at the end of the day both destined to be superstars. Why now all of a sudden charge up for Green? Makes no sense. Green might take the diva route too.

Besides we have had divas beside Moss here as well. Dion did become one but he changed his tune and came back.

Also BB has had better luck with FA WRs or trades than through the Draft. Sad but true. There are many options of proven WR after this CBA crap gets settled. Even with his blue chip value, Green is still a gamble as to if he takes to the NFL game.

Better a D player and hit the FA or trade for a WR. Reiss indicates Steve Smith is who he would chase. Reiss might already know something.

The only pick I see going up for is the 246lb 6' 3" Miller. Gained 9 lbs and runs a 4.46. I'd take odds on him becoming an All Pro.
DW Toys

I agree that if they were to move up into the top ten, an impact defensive player like Miller, Peterson, or one of the top defensive lineman would be ideal. I was merely passing along something Kiper had mentioned on one of the ESPN chats. Doubtless, Green is impressive, and his addition will enhance the Patriots offense, but I would prefer to see the team continue to add talent to the young defense and build from the inside out (e.g. the trenches) as opposed to skill position talent on offense in the early rounds.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

I agree that if they were to move up into the top ten, an impact defensive player like Miller, Peterson, or one of the top defensive lineman would be ideal. I was merely passing along something Kiper had mentioned on one of the ESPN chats. Doubtless, Green is impressive, and his addition will enhance the Patriots offense, but I would prefer to see the team continue to add talent to the young defense and build from the inside out (e.g. the trenches) as opposed to skill position talent on offense in the early rounds.

I would not be disaapointed if the Pats made a move up for Green. Green is a play maker with great hands and runs precise routes (but can get lazy at times on the route running).

My first preference is to drop back to the early 20's and take Wilkerson as a 3-4 DE and then take OLB Kerrigan at #28.

If we keep #33, that would be a great place for WR Hankerson of Miami followed by OG Boling at #60.

 

[dryheat44]

I would not be disaapointed if the Pats made a move up for Green. Green is a play maker with great hands and runs precise routes (but can get lazy at times on the route running).

My first preference is to drop back to the early 20's and take Wilkerson as a 3-4 DE and then take OLB Kerrigan at #28.

If we keep #33, that would be a great place for WR Hankerson of Miami followed by OG Boling at #60.

I'd prefer an OT at 33 instead of Hank, but I'd sign off on this draft.

 

[sevengables_2207]

I would not be disaapointed if the Pats made a move up for Green. Green is a play maker with great hands and runs precise routes (but can get lazy at times on the route running).

My first preference is to drop back to the early 20's and take Wilkerson as a 3-4 DE and then take OLB Kerrigan at #28.

If we keep #33, that would be a great place for WR Hankerson of Miami followed by OG Boling at #60.

Nor I. I think Green has a bright future. However, if I had to wager on what the team will do in the early rounds, it will look something similar to what you proposed: Either stay pat or trade down a bit and take the best available prospects that fill needs in the trenches. With the uncertainty surrounding offensive linemen Light (FA) and Mankins (contract dispute), the impending release of Kaczur, and the possible losses of Gerrard Warren (FA) and Mike Wright (injury?) on the defensive side, I feel the Patriots will address the lines early in this draft.

 

[patchick]

My first preference is to drop back to the early 20's and take Wilkerson as a 3-4 DE and then take OLB Kerrigan at #28.

If we keep #33, that would be a great place for WR Hankerson of Miami followed by OG Boling at #60.

I'd prefer an OT at 33 instead of Hank, but I'd sign off on this draft.

Ditto. Wilkerson & Kerrigan seem like a realistic pair in the 1st. I could see a modest move down from 17 picking up a 3rd, which would then be packaged to move up modestly from 28.

 

[CTHuskies]

Ditto. Wilkerson & Kerrigan seem like a realistic pair in the 1st. I could see a modest move down from 17 picking up a 3rd, which would then be packaged to move up modestly from 28.

Who the heck do you take at 17? I trade down because think the next 10+ players are evenly rated. I'd be very pleased with Wilkerson & Kerrigan [don't think either will make it to #28] and one or more OL in 2nd or early 3rd round.:rocker:

 

[Metaphors]

It seems to me that the top 16 look relatively set at this point.

I'm not so convinced. Breaking your list into groupings:

Elite (5)
They get taken before anyone else. If a team doesn't want one, they trade down to find someone who does.

Bowers
Fairley
Dareus
Green
Peterson

Risers (6)
Got the momentum and should make up the lion's share of the next group of selections.

Miller
Amukamara
Newton
Jordan
Watt
T.Smith

Position Cliff (4)
High visibility positions where the "next guy" represents a drop in talent or rise in risk. If need is high, get them now or take a chance you miss big. Not necessarily deserving, but very likely to go before #17.

Gabbert
J.Jones
Ingram
Solder

Variables (2)
Should be gone by #17 but enough questions remain that they could land just about anywhere in the top 20.

Quinn
A.Smith

Wildcards (7)
In past years they might be top 16. All it takes is one team to fall in love with them and they knock someone down to the Pats at #17.

B.Harris - Detroit
Castonzo - Minnesota
Kerrigan - Jacksonville
Mallett - Washington
Wilkerson - San Diego (trade up)
P.Taylor - Houston
Paea - St. Louis

Based on these groupings and team needs, it looks to be pretty easy filling out the top 10. You can shuffle the deck a little, but the result should be similar.

1. Carolina - Fairley
2. Denver - Bowers
3. Buffalo - Dareus
4. Cincinnati - Green
5. Arizona - Peterson
6. Cleveland - Miller
7. SF - Quinn
8. Tennessee - Newton (possibly a trade down)
9. Dallas - Amukamara
10. Washington - Gabbert

The key is in the remaining 6 spots before the Pats pick. Houston at #11 is the pivot point. Their needs at CB (Harris), OLB (A.Smith), NT (P.Taylor) and S (R.Moore) would all be reaches at this point. Gotta figure they either trade up to #8 to get Amukamara or trade down hoping to get multiple guys I mentioned above. Depending on what Houston does at #11, I could see the Vikings looking to move as well. For the sake of argument, lets just do the following:

11. ????? - Jordan
12. ????? - T.Smith

The next couple should be pretty predictable:

13. Detroit - Solder
14. St. Louis - J.Jones
15. Miami - Ingram

Jacksonville is the last stop before the Pats, but I doubt they are looking for the same things. A CB like Harris could be tempting here, but my gut tells me they will go with:

16. Jacksonville - Kerrigan

In this scenario, both A.Smith and JJ Watt make it through to the Pats at #17. I didn't even have to go off the reservation to make it happen. The Pats also look to have ready trading partners to get to #11 or #12 if they want Jordan or if Quinn slides into that range.

So while Dareus and Quinn look to be out of reach (thanks for nothing San Diego!!! ), all the other likely targets look to be gettable with little or no effort.

 

[patchick]

In this scenario, both A.Smith and JJ Watt make it through to the Pats at #17. I didn't even have to go off the reservation to make it happen. The Pats also look to have ready trading partners to get to #11 or #12 if they want Jordan or if Quinn slides into that range.

So while Dareus and Quinn look to be out of reach (thanks for nothing San Diego!!! ), all the other likely targets look to be gettable with little or no effort.

I love your scenario, but I'm not quite so sanguine. I have a feeling that trades are going to bump up defenders like Watt, as teams in need of a QB or OT try to move down to a more reasonable slot.

But assuming your project did hold -- I wouldn't sit around and hope my guy lasted to 17! I'd be working the phones like mad to trade for the last man standing of Jordan and Watt.

 

[Deus Irae]

It looks as if the Bengals need for a QB is getting more acute:

Dennis Janson of WCPO-TV in Cincinnati reports that Palmer recently told a confidant, “I will never set foot in Paul Brown Stadium again.” (Of course, if Palmer plays for a team that plays at the Bengals, then he will.)

Palmer reportedly added: “I have $80 million in the bank. I don’t have to play football for money. I’ll play it for the love of the game but that would have to be elsewhere. I’m prepared to live my life.”

Report: Carson Palmer claims he’ll never set foot in Paul Brown Stadium again | ProFootballTalk

 

[MaineMan]

It looks as if the Bengals need for a QB is getting more acute:



Report: Carson Palmer claims he’ll never set foot in Paul Brown Stadium again | ProFootballTalk

So, apparently Palmer is not mollified by the OC change. If he's really gone, I can't see Cinci NOT taking a QB at #4.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

So, apparently Palmer is not mollified by the OC change. If he's really gone, I can't see Cinci NOT taking a QB at #4.

Assuming Carolina or someone trading up doesn't take the prospect they like best. The rumor they want Ponder in the second makes sense for them, but he may require a trade back into the first.

 

[patsfanboy]

So, apparently Palmer is not mollified by the OC change. If he's really gone, I can't see Cinci NOT taking a QB at #4.

I agree with you. That will also change the draft scheme as well.