The likely top 16

[Luke Skywelker]

Been thinking this for awhile staring at the upper half of the draft. That Oakland win at KC sucked. As it stacks, with the strength at DL, about half of the teams ahead of the Pats are 3-4(equivalent to the ratio of the overall league) - no advantage there. That 17th pick seems just on the outside looking in at the line of consensus cream of this draft. A plus is all the early QB need and hopes are that some team takes their flyer on a guy like Locker early to push the stack back a bit. I don't think he lasts past Seattle, so some team may jump in to get him, although could be after the 17th.

The way I see it, if all goes how the pundits expect, Ingram does go in that top half. That being said, not a definite that two OL go - could be one, could be none. Right now, I think if two go, it's Solder/Smith.

I personally feel like the Pats have an easier time finding their impact OL with their second/third pick than the DL, so I'm still hoping they find a way to get Watt/Jordan. Looks like much better value at DL than OL at 17. Otherwise they go second tier DL with guys like Heyward/Wilkerson.

Ultimately, if the Pats do covet either Watt/Jordan, they'll find a way and have to be confident in that. They have the ammo to trade up and there are a few partners in the low double digits(Houston, Detroit, Minn) that may have needs whereas taking in their spots would be an overdraft. They also have a wider array of needs/could use multiple picks.

If they can't manipulate upwards to get their guy, they probably trade back.

It's going to be very interesting to see how the trade circuit hashes out, who NE's guy is and if they make a play up for him. Will be interesting to see if SD jockeys up in targeting the same guys for their 3-4. Does that run on DL all happen before the Pats go? Is there a Pats guy in the top half of the first?

 

[DW Toys]

Anything is possible for the Patriots in the first round. Maybe this will be the year they move up to take a blue chipper that they feel really fits their shemes.

FWIW, I was just perusing a Kiper chat from this afternoon, and he responded to a question about what the Patriots would do with their first first round pick by saying that he keeps hearing the Patriots will move up to take A.J. Green. I have to admit that an already potent offense that adds a player of Green's ability will doubtless be extremely formidable.

Green is a very nice player, but the Pats could have stayed last year and got Bryant. Yes, different types but at the end of the day both destined to be superstars. Why now all of a sudden charge up for Green? Makes no sense. Green might take the diva route too.

Besides we have had divas beside Moss here as well. Dion did become one but he changed his tune and came back.

Also BB has had better luck with FA WRs or trades than through the Draft. Sad but true. There are many options of proven WR after this CBA crap gets settled. Even with his blue chip value, Green is still a gamble as to if he takes to the NFL game.

Better a D player and hit the FA or trade for a WR. Reiss indicates Steve Smith is who he would chase. Reiss might already know something.

The only pick I see going up for is the 246lb 6' 3" Miller. Gained 9 lbs and runs a 4.46. I'd take odds on him becoming an All Pro.
DW Toys

 

[mgteich]

Yup, around 10 is the right time to start calling if you want to move up. I doubt that the trade up will be worth the price. Maybe one of the top 8 front seven players will be within reach at 10-13, or not. Maybe our 60 or 74 will get us into that range.

I don't there is much stomach on this board for moving higher (giving up 28 or 33). Do you that in mind? Are you considering anyone but a fron seven player?

For me, I expect us to evaluate our choices at 17 and moved down if we see value, and don't see anyone that we must have at 17.

You betcha, something crazy might happen and 16 straight teams will pass on Cam Jordan in favor of the likes of Ryan "Leaf" Mallett, Mike "Not Maurkice" Pouncey, etc. etc. etc.

But banking on that doesn't really count as a draft strategy. Around pick 10 the Pats are probably going to have to make a decision on trading up.

 

[patchick]

Unfortunately, one of the usual drafters is the Raiders, which lessens the number of hopefuls.

Hmm, interesting point. The 3 teams with the most idiosyncratic approaches to the top of the draft have been Oakland, Buffalo and Jacksonville.

- Oakland is out of the picture.

- Buffalo picks all the way up at #3, so the chance that they'd choose somebody outside of the obvious 16 is exceedingly low. The best hope is that they trade down inside the top 16 then take a 3rd QB or somebody wacky, but I'm not betting on it.

- Jacksonville. Now this is interesting. It's not hard to picture them biting on a Mike Pouncey or Jimmy Smith or even Martez Wilson at #16...or local hero Christian Ponder. But is that too little too late?

 

[cstjohn17]

Another option, although I will have to study up on the rules without an CBA. But maybe they can trade for a veteran player.

Without free agency a top 20 draft pick could be worth a lot of team with a specific need.

 

[jays52]

I agree that this should be the year for the trade up. The scary thing is that the best fits are going to be the top half of the first round picks. I think that this is more pronounced this year than any other I can remember. Usually there's the linebacker, qb, 34 olb, 43 end, dt, receiver or two and a couple maybe three OT's. This year there's the two dt's, two 34 ends, two 34 olb's, two receivers, one maybe two QB's, and one maybe two OT's. The one saving grace is the two CB's, and maybe if AJ Green and Julio Jones go fast it could trigger a run on receivers. No workout warriors bound to bust either. This is the first time in what feels like forever it seems necessary to move up a fair amount to get a good fit. Of course, they'll likely drop down four spots and take some obscure player from slippery rock state who turns into a perennial all-pro.

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

You have to remember a lot of teams picking in the top 16 are there for a reason, they do things that don't make sense. Who knows what will actually happen.

Like Jacksonville selecting Tyson Alualu or the Giants picking Jason Pierre-Paul who were not on too many people's short list last year.......

 

[jsull87]

It seems to me that the top 16 look relatively set at this point. (Though by April, I'll doubtless look foolish for saying so.) In alphabetical order:

A.J. Green
Aldon Smith
Blaine Gabbert
Cameron Jordan
Cam Newton
DaQuan Bowers
J.J. Watt
Julio Jones
Marcell Dareus
Nick Fairley
OT #1 TBD
OT #2 TBD
Patrick Peterson
Prince Amukamara
Robert Quinn
Von Miller

Adrian Clayborn probably has the best chance to crash the party; Stephen Paea, Mark Ingram, Jimmy Smith and another QB are long shot possibilities.

Any disagreement? And if not, who the heck do you take at 17? I really don't like that spot at this point. If I'm looking at a choice of Kerrigan, Heyward, Wilkerson and Paea with #17, it's trade time.

Honestly breaking into that top 16 i can see Mark Ingram, Jake Lockyer/Mallett (even tho i wouldn't take them) and Clayborne (for Jacksonville)

Apart from that the only other maybes i can see are maybe jimmy smith and paea.

Your right tho if we are lucky and lockyer and Ingram sneak in that top 16. then i am hoping one of jj watt or aldon smith falls into our laps

 

[Peachhead]

Hopefully a Safety or two light it up tomorrow which may gibe some teams who need them somewhere else to spend their 1st.

 

[bucky]

The 8-10 players I'd want for the Patriots aren't likely to be the ones displaced. IMO the only real possibility to slip to 17 is Aldon Smith.

Here's the good news... if you, me, and others on this board see this, you can be damn sure that BB sees it!

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

It seems to me that the top 16 look relatively set at this point. (Though by April, I'll doubtless look foolish for saying so.) In alphabetical order:

A.J. Green
Aldon Smith
Blaine Gabbert
Cameron Jordan
Cam Newton
DaQuan Bowers
J.J. Watt
Julio Jones
Marcell Dareus
Nick Fairley
OT #1 TBD
OT #2 TBD
Patrick Peterson
Prince Amukamara
Robert Quinn
Von Miller

Adrian Clayborn probably has the best chance to crash the party; Stephen Paea, Mark Ingram, Jimmy Smith and another QB are long shot possibilities.

Any disagreement? And if not, who the heck do you take at 17? I really don't like that spot at this point. If I'm looking at a choice of Kerrigan, Heyward, Wilkerson and Paea with #17, it's trade time.

Too early pc, let's see how the CBs look tomorrow with Jimmy Smith or another CB intriguing people with speed and/or smoothness in drills.
-- Marcell Dareus is the #1 NT candiidate with his 319, but do Paea, Wilkerson, or Taylor interest Houston who will badly need a NT for their new 3-4 (Alualu redux)? Wade's version of the 3-4 would be just as happy with a more penetrating NT as they were with Jamal Williams' space eating.
-- Houston also has a desperate need at CB and S, as does Dallas, could their moves unsettle the CB rankings?
-- Not to mention the CBA status is likely to warp team's draft decisions if it's unsettled by the draft.
-- Does a 4-3 team picking between 10-16 look at Justin Houstin and say he's more athletic than Kerrigan, making him the man they want?
-- Pending Ty Smith's Pro-Day: Cincinnati, Arizona, or Cleveland could touch off a run on OT if Ty is as impressive as anticipated.

In advance of Ty Smith's Pro-Day workout I rank OTs:
-- Smith
-- Castonzo
-- Solder
-- Sherrod
-- Carimi
-- Cannon

 

[patchick]

Too early pc, let's see how the CBs look tomorrow with Jimmy Smith or another CB intriguing people with speed and/or smoothness in drills.
-- Marcell Dareus is the #1 NT candiidate with his 319, but do Paea, Wilkerson, or Taylor interest Houston who will badly need a NT for their new 3-4 (Alualu redux)? Wade's version of the 3-4 would be just as happy with a more penetrating NT as they were with Jamal Williams' space eating.
-- Houston also has a desperate need at CB and S, as does Dallas, could their moves unsettle the CB rankings?
-- Not to mention the CBA status is likely to warp team's draft decisions if it's unsettled by the draft.
-- Does a 4-3 team picking between 10-16 look at Justin Houstin and say he's more athletic than Kerrigan and the man they want?
-- Pending Ty Smith's Pro-Day: Cincinnati, Arizona, or Cleveland could touch off a run on OT if Ty is as impressive as anticipated.

Ah, soothing words from Dr. Box.

I suspect that deep down, the real problem is that i know the tiny handful of players I really want will be long gone.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

I suspect that deep down, the real problem is that i know the tiny handful of players I really want will be long gone.

So, same draft problem, new year?

 

[patchick]

So, same draft problem, new year?

No, it's that damned #17 pick! It's just close enough to make you dream big. Such a tease.

 

[Patriot Missile]

No, it's that damned #17 pick! It's just close enough to make you dream big. Such a tease.

I know the feeling.

 

[Off The Grid]

IMO the only real possibility to slip to 17 is Aldon Smith.

From your lips to God's ears.

 

[Off The Grid]

Can't stand Mallett or Locker, but I've been rooting for them like we're related.

Would love to see some team get suckered into taking one of them (two would be too much to ask for).

Off The Grid Approves of This Message.

I'm afraid that the surfeit of alleged 1st Round QB's might well trigger The Law of Supply and Demand against our interests, and see a chunk of those guys fall to the 2nd and beyond...But there're enough teams that could be construed as needing QB help ~ and enough foolish men ~ that a RUN on QB's might very well ensue!!

In short: If Gabbert and Newton go early enough ~ a distinct possibility ~ then all it would take is ONE fool who is ~ unfathomably ~ enamored with either Locker or Mallett to to draw them BOTH into the Vortex.

4 in the top 16 ~ though not likely ~ IS In Play.

 

[IcyPatriot]

The more I see of Peterson the more I say he's worth trading up for. Him and McCourty, Bodden and Chung in the secondary and the sky is the limit.

Has Super Bowl, multiple Super Bowls written all over it.

 

[Off The Grid]

A couple of weeks ago, we would have been psyched to have a choice between Kerrigan, Wilkerson, Ingram and OT #3.

Who's "we," mon ami?

Well SAID, Sistah Patricia!!

Speaking for myself, I have ZERO interest in ANY of those 4 options within 1000 MILES of #17!!

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

No, it's that damned #17 pick! It's just close enough to make you dream big. Such a tease.

You should have taken the immunization booster shot; I've been plotting how to trade down and score extra picks and some McCourty quality prospects.