The least PatsFans consensus ever?

[borg]

I don't think it is the depth of this draft that makes for little consensus as it is the lack of obvious great fits for the Patriots.

There is no great pass rusher in this draft at either the 3-4 DE spot or the Patriots OLB spots. If there was a DeMarcus Ware type in this draft scheduled to go around no.10, I think we'd see a lot of us clamoring to trade one of the 2nd rounders and make a move up.

The OLB's all have question marks: size, speed, character, and/or motor. I think we all disagree on these because some people are willing to overlook lack of size for production (Graham/Hughes) while others are willing to overlook character/motor questions (Dunlap/Griffen).

I feel like Odrick is exactly as Patchick described, most recognize he'd fit a need, but I think a lot of us have questions about whether he will be a difference maker.

So, nobody at OLB or DE that seems like an impact player, so move on to TE or WR?

TE: I think a lot of posters are negative on Gresham due to how the Pats have used the TE position recently and their frequent use of first round picks on TE's in the past. Throw in the fact that Gresham missed all of last year and has already had not one, but TWO ACL surgeries and he becomes a tough sell.

WR: There's basically two in Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas. I don't think you'd find fans of any team developing a consensus on either player. Bryant's character issues and time away from football due to his suspension are issue. Thomas played in a very simplified offense and there are real questions about his ability to contribute right away (not to mention his foot injury which prevented him from working out).
[[/I]

Great post. Pats have lots of holes, but it makes no sense fitting a square peg into a round hole. Looking at draft slot and players available around those slots, I believe that:
Rd 1: either Spiller or Matthews will be available, fill a void, and be productive immediately. Matthews book reads: DECISIVE FIRST STEP. I'm sold
Rd 2A: I'm hoping Patrick Robinson CB slips a few slots. Huge need. Wheatley and Wilhite aren't the answer. This is a passing league with AFC East teams bolstering their WR corps. Bodden, Butler, Robinson ....
Rd 2B: Spikes ILB. The guy is a player, highest ILB grades...watching Guyton fill the wrong holes vs Baltimore makes this pick a necessity. Lots of value considering his stock last year.
RD 2C: TE. Pats have their choice of 4 quality guys. I'm partial to Graham because he is the lone freak athlete in the group, but what do I know.

 

[Nonentity]

Great post. Pats have lots of holes, but it makes no sense fitting a square peg into a round hole. Looking at draft slot and players available around those slots, I believe that:
Rd 1: either Spiller or Matthews will be available, fill a void, and be productive immediately. Matthews book reads: DECISIVE FIRST STEP. I'm sold
Rd 2A: I'm hoping Patrick Robinson CB slips a few slots. Huge need. Wheatley and Wilhite aren't the answer. This is a passing league with AFC East teams bolstering their WR corps. Bodden, Butler, Robinson ....
Rd 2B: Spikes ILB. The guy is a player, highest ILB grades...watching Guyton fill the wrong holes vs Baltimore makes this pick a necessity. Lots of value considering his stock last year.
RD 2C: TE. Pats have their choice of 4 quality guys. I'm partial to Graham because he is the lone freak athlete in the group, but what do I know.

You don't plan to draft a pass-rusher then?

 

[borg]

You don't plan to draft a pass-rusher then?

I need to put an asterisk next to my 4 choices. "My people" have hinted to me that the Pats love the 4 guys on my list. They also view JPP as the player with a HUGE upside but his impact may not be felt until year 3. Thus, his draft position/value/contract is tough to reconcile.
If I was drafting , I'd use 4 picks to get three guys...Graham DE, Griffen DE, Mathews RB.

 

[chevss454]

I agree that there is not much consensus or argument this year. We have 3-5 serious needs and 4 early picks and folks don't seem to care in what order the needs are met.

As we discussed two weeks ago, I think that there is a considerable spread between quality at 22 and quality at 44 at several positions of need: DE, OLB, C/G, CB, WR and perhaps even RB and TE.

I would be OK coming out of the first with any of
DE Morgan, Odrick, Griffen
OLB Graham, Kindle, Hughes
C/G Pouncey
CB Wilson, McCurty, Jackson
WR Bryant, Thomas, Tate
RB Spiller, Matthews
TE Greshem

I understand the need and the argument for drafting at any of these positions. I don't think that any of these players will be there at 44, and the players available will be significantly weaker prospects.

In some sense, the strongest argument couled probably be made for corner, since it is likely 22 or not at all. There are three players who might significantly help the patriots at corner, and they will all be long gone at 44. That cannot be said for any of the other postions. HOWEVER, depending on Belichick's board, one of the OLB's could definitely be judged a stud, ditto for Odrick.

Personally, I don't want us to draft a RB, TE or G early.

Very good post, Mg. With so many 2nd round picks BB could stay put at 22, trade up or trade back. We can all see that easily. It's the potential flexibility and BB's tendency to be a little unpredictable that has me so confused. The only player you mentioned above I would not be happy with is TE Gresham.

22 needs to be used for an impact player, whether it's O or D. Spiller and Dez Bryant are explosive players on offense. Pouncey could help for sure. On D, Derrick Morgan would require a trade up but 1 of Graham, Hughes or Kindle may be there at 22, as could a talented CB. If the 4-2 Big Nickel is in BB's mind as the base D, then one of the CB's you mentioned could be the pick.

Trading back and picking up an additional pick is also very possible.

Exasperating to be sure and in the fluid dynamic of the draft, what BB does will depend in large part on what other teams do, and frankly, except for Suh and McCoy, who can name with complete certainty who else will be picked in the top 8-10. April is disinformation month, so who really knows?

It's gonna be fun in any event and I also expect the Pats to choose wisely.

 

[patsinthesnow]

I need to put an asterisk next to my 4 choices. "My people" have hinted to me that the Pats love the 4 guys on my list. They also view JPP as the player with a HUGE upside but his impact may not be felt until year 3. Thus, his draft position/value/contract is tough to reconcile.
If I was drafting , I'd use 4 picks to get three guys...Graham DE, Griffen DE, Mathews RB.

If Matthews is there, I would love to get him. IMO, he is the only rb in the top 5 that resembles an NFL RB. Good moves/vision, but the size and speed.
(5'11, 218 pds, 4.45 forty)

In reality, the top 5 I see two reggie bush's (Spiller and Best), an every down back (Matthews), a bust (Johnathan Dwyer), and a power back (Gerhart).

Matthews or Gerhart on draft day.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

I just counted, and realized that I've been hanging around this draft board for seven years now . I can't remember a draft with such a total lack of fan consensus. We're not even gathering into opposing armies, like Barwin vs. Matthews. We're just all over the place.

Jared Odrick is the one name that comes up again and again, but usually with a resigned sigh that he'd "make sense." For OLBs, there seem to be equal numbers in the Kindle, Graham, Hughes and trade-up-for-Morgan camps, with a fair bit of support for waiting or trading back for Dunlap, Misi, Wootton, or Sapp, or even Te'O-Nesheim, Hardy or Lane -- or some combination of those guys. There are also advocates of spending the #1 on a WR (Bryant), TE (Gresham), C (Pouncey), CB (Wilson), RB (Spiller or Matthews)...probably even more that I'm missing. I keep reading Pats mocks that are wildly different from one another and thinking "yeah, that's plausible."

On a personal level, I usually fuss over my last few picks for the draft contest until the last day. This time I haven't bothered, because I have absolutely no clue what's going to happen.

Does anybody feel differently? Want to offer some words of confidence and clarity?

I feel the same way. There is no one athlete that the board has really felt would be a perfect fit for BB.

I think everybody on the board knows where the position holes are on the roster, but no one athlete stands out as potentially available at #22 and a perfect fit for any of those holes.

And while BB has been as constant this year as in year's past with a crew so tight lipped even the NSA would be jealous, we just can't seem to agree on an athlete that he would like.

Odd year indeed.

 

[bucky]

I think the reason for this "uncertainty" is the fact that there are probably more holes on this team than there have ever been over the past 7 years. DE, OLB, WR and TE are all IMMEDIATE needs. Then you have RB that is a major need for 2011. And ILB, OL, CB and S are all positions that could be upgraded - depending on who you ask. And then you have the Tebow rumors - which makes every single position a consideration.

 

[bucky]

I need to put an asterisk next to my 4 choices. "My people" have hinted to me that the Pats love the 4 guys on my list. They also view JPP as the player with a HUGE upside but his impact may not be felt until year 3. Thus, his draft position/value/contract is tough to reconcile.
If I was drafting , I'd use 4 picks to get three guys...Graham DE, Griffen DE, Mathews RB.

By "my people" are you referring to "the people who live inside your head"?

 

[chevss454]

I feel the same way. There is no one athlete that the board has really felt would be a perfect fit for BB.

I think everybody on the board knows where the position holes are on the roster, but no one athlete stands out as potentially available at #22 and a perfect fit for any of those holes.

And while BB has been as constant this year as in year's past with a crew so tight lipped even the NSA would be jealous, we just can't seem to agree on an athlete that he would like.

Odd year indeed.

Sometimes putting things into perspective means going back to the drawing board. This is a terrific article that is very pertinent and may help explain and sort out the confusion. I'm certain BB already understands the conclusions drawn regarding positional value.

Tom Haberstroh: What positions are worth a first-round pick? - ESPN

My top 4, btw, are Bryant, McCourty, Wootton and Misi.

 

[patchick]

Lots of folks in this thread have suggested that the lack of consensus comes from the Pats' unusual abundance of needs. There's clearly some truth to that...but there's no consensus within position, either.

At TE there are a few who would bite on Gresham in the 1st, others who like Gronkowski, Pitta, Graham or McCoy in the second, some good support for Moeaki in the 3rd, and still others who would wait for a Hoomanawanui or Harbor on day 3. Etc. And at OLB, there are at least 10 different players somebody here has identified as a "binky"!

Or let's say you've decided that WR should be addressed after round 2 with two picks -- a fairly polished receiver with good hands and quickness regardless of size, and a raw but intriguing wideout with some size and athleticism to develop as a long-term project -- both of whom have admirers on this board. Quick, who are they?

A. Mardy Gilyard and Marcus Easley
B. Emmanuel Sanders and Joe Webb
C. Andre Roberts and Scott Long

:bricks:

 

[bakes781]

A) but I will admit the moves of our division rivals at this position has caused me to steer more towards upgrading the WR position as early as the 1st with Dez Bryant or even Demaryius Thomas if they fell to #22. I'm still on the Odrick bandwagon, but don't see a huge drop off with Alualu in the 2nd. Certainly OLB must be adressed some where in round 2(at least one will drop), but I also see a need to address the interior OL by Friday as well.

I don't feel TE or RB is as pressing a need. If a Gresham or Gronkowski were available in round 2 I'd be ok with getting the value, but this team needs playmakers on day one and both have injury concerns they're recovering from. Also I feel like a blocking TE would make more sense and can be easily had on Saturday. Many of the top RB prospects have a lot of mileage already, so I'd be cautious with taking the risk of yet another injury prone tailback before Saturday. The one guy I am all for is in my avatar. I believe Dexter McCluster serves multiple purposes and if you watch him block his size shouldn't scare teams away. Darren Sproles anyone?

 

[mgteich]

Curious, after the moves in the division, I'm now more inclined to draft a corner. The goal is not to win division game by scores of 42-41.

A) but I will admit the moves of our division rivals at this position has caused me to steer more towards upgrading the WR position as early as the 1st with Dez Bryant or even Demaryius Thomas if they fell to #22.

 

[Boston Tim]

I just counted, and realized that I've been hanging around this draft board for seven years now . I can't remember a draft with such a total lack of fan consensus. We're not even gathering into opposing armies, like Barwin vs. Matthews. We're just all over the place. [snip] Does anybody feel differently? Want to offer some words of confidence and clarity?

In the past BB drafts, the patriots were the dominant team in the NFL. They rarely had more than two big holes to fill at any given time, so it was easy to focus upon need and then argue about a couple elite players that projected to be drafted around the Pat's draft slot.

Now, there is consensus that the pats are just a contender for the AFC East and are far from being the team to beat in the NFL. They have holes at multiple positions, and there are other positions that are fine but could be upgraded from average to good. Add to this the uncertainty about possible defensive scheme changes and also the relatively recent reliance on "critical players" (other than Brady) for the offensive scheme to even work. To be fair, the draft is also extremely deep.

Just my 2 cents.

EDIT: just saw bucky's post in this thread. So, basically, I agree with what he said...

 

[bakes781]

Curious, after the moves in the division, I'm now more inclined to draft a corner. The goal is not to win division game by scores of 42-41.

A) but I will admit the moves of our division rivals at this position has caused me to steer more towards upgrading the WR position as early as the 1st with Dez Bryant or even Demaryius Thomas if they fell to #22.

Well the reality of the situation IMO is that it might come to that. We can't expect any of the OLB/DEs that we select over the weekend to come in on day one and dominate as a pass rusher. And as I stated in another thread w/o a pass rush we can have Deion in his prime it won't matter. So the alternative is to upgrade on the other side of the ball. I'm not saying we don't address pass rush and add depth at corner but IMO the position we can impact the most is at WR. Guys like Holmes, Jennings & DeSean have stepped in on week one and made an impact.

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

I'd have to say that in the past I have always had 1, 2, or 3 guys I really really wanted, and was prepared to be disappointed if they were not picked by the Patriots.

I have my binkies this year (Pouncey, Odrick) but there are probably a dozen others that I would grudgingly say would be as good a choice, from my point of view, particularly given that the Patriots powers that be know a whole lot more about team-building than me.

I'm down to the point where my only real gripe would be using #22 on a tight end, when we seemingly don't use the tight end as anything other than an extra offensive lineman or (more rarely) a red zone target. I don't see a real impact on game strategy by adding even a talented tight end, as opposed to adding an effective pass rusher or run-stopper.

 

[PATRIOTS-80]

Why is there this myth that BB would be stupid enough to draft a TE in the 1st round, AND NEVER USE HIM. If he drafts Gresham, he plans on making him an important part of the offense.

I think people confuse cause and effect with Ben Watson. Watson wasn't an important part of the offense for any other reason than that he couldn't consistently get open.

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

I guess we have the Dave Thomas example to go on. He was a consistent target for Drew Brees down the stretch and in the playoffs, after being nonexistent as a pass option in NE.

Also, in our offense the slot receiver and the 3rd down back are the "hot reads" and not the TE, as is the case for many other teams. This may be due to the exceptional abilties of Welker and Faulk, for sure, but the TE has been deemphasized as a receiving threat in this offense over the past 5 years.

Scheme or personnel, chicken or egg, I know it is debatable...

 

[Mike the Brit]

To the fact that the Patriots have more unfilled holes than usual prior to the draft and that they have a lot of picks in a deep draft, add the uncertainty regarding other teams. A lot of teams need quarterbacks, but there seems to be no consensus apart from the fact that Bradford should go to the Rams. Who (if anyone) in the first round will bite on Clausen? McCoy? Tebow????

 

[borg]

To the fact that the Patriots have more unfilled holes than usual prior to the draft and that they have a lot of picks in a deep draft, add the uncertainty regarding other teams. A lot of teams need quarterbacks, but there seems to be no consensus apart from the fact that Bradford should go to the Rams. Who (if anyone) in the first round will bite on Clausen? McCoy? Tebow????

The QB slotting would make a great thread on its own. Alot of interesting dynamics in play for all the QB hungry teams. Buffalo whiffing on California born QBs. Cleveland whiffing on a recent Notre Dame grad. Many teams could appear from the tall grasses and grab a QB if others don't pay attention. Carolina, Jacksonville, Tampa, Oakland, Denver, Minnesota...even Arizona, SF, and Seattle could go in round 2.
Bradford...Rams....97% chance
Tebow...Jacksonville...75%....trade down and grab a 2nd or 3rd. Forget about what the owner and GM have been saying...it's all about tickets and fan interest. I live in S Florida, Hurricane country, and all sports talk gushes about is Tebow. Imagine the ball washing in North Florida.
Cleveland...Clausen...50%...the Walrus believes he can manage arrogance
Buffalo....who cares...39%... but I guess I'll go McCoy

 

[Mike the Brit]

The QB slotting would make a great thread on its own. Alot of interesting dynamics in play for all the QB hungry teams. Buffalo whiffing on California born QBs. Cleveland whiffing on a recent Notre Dame grad. Many teams could appear from the tall grasses and grab a QB if others don't pay attention. Carolina, Jacksonville, Tampa, Oakland, Denver, Minnesota...even Arizona, SF, and Seattle could go in round 2.
Bradford...Rams....97% chance
Tebow...Jacksonville...75%....trade down and grab a 2nd or 3rd. Forget about what the owner and GM have been saying...it's all about tickets and fan interest. I live in S Florida, Hurricane country, and all sports talk gushes about is Tebow. Imagine the ball washing in North Florida.
Cleveland...Clausen...50%...the Walrus believes he can manage arrogance
Buffalo....who cares...39%... but I guess I'll go McCoy

Absolutely. Then there's Washington, whom some think will take Clausen. It all adds to the uncertainty.