The Impossible Dream: Patriots Completing a Long Pass Downfield

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Even with our "lack of deep threat" offense, Brady averaged more YPA last year than he did in 2007. I think the lack of deep ball is one of the least important problems with this team. I think it would be good to hit one once in awhile, but throwing a lot of deep balls eventually leads to too many boom or bust games.

Lloyd is developing great chemistry with Brady as an outside threat... outside threat doesn't mean vertical, but it can be just as effective because you still may need to double team him.

This is the same Ravens defense, minus Suggs, that typically has stonewalled our offense for five years now. Brady practically moved the ball at will without Hernandez. If the Pats defense hadn't completely choked as usual, we might be talking about this game as another Brady classic.

 

[BlueThunder]

If the REFS hadn't completely choked as usual, we might be talking about this game as another Brady classic.

Fixed .....:rocker:

 

[TheTruth3402]

Brady isn't a bad long ball passer, but the guy is just out of practice. He hasn't had a consistent target out wide since Moss left, but Lloyd should change things.

Seeing as he is one of the most accurate passers to ever play the game, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt.

 

[BananaRepublican]

You see how well lloyd and brady were working together the other night? Only going to get better

I have to agree. Sometimes it's good to notice what did work and realize the improvement in it. It's not likely to regress but it is likely to start rolling down hill. One game with the right matchups and Lloyd will be on the highlight reels.

 

[Insaneirish]

Never seen a guy voluntarily find the ground faster than him.

Ever watch this guy named Randy Moss??

Brady has been terrible this year.... hard to tell if it's the WR's or just all Brady. Not 1 long ball yet. Seems like Lloyd is runnng more short out and ups, and double moves...but doesn't take them very deep at all.
I'm more concerned that Brady didn't target Gronk much at all, especially in the redzone. They gotta stop settling for 3 points, or it's going to be a long season.

 

[Kontradiction]

Ever watch this guy named Randy Moss??

Brady has been terrible this year.... hard to tell if it's the WR's or just all Brady. Not 1 long ball yet. Seems like Lloyd is runnng more short out and ups, and double moves...but doesn't take them very deep at all.
I'm more concerned that Brady didn't target Gronk much at all, especially in the redzone. They gotta stop settling for 3 points, or it's going to be a long season.

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

The relative lack of deep passes is simply the result of risk/reward analysis.

When Brady is in a rhythm, a short pass had a 80% success rate and he has receivers who happen to excel in gaining yards after catch. He is also very proficient in placing the ball such that YAC is maximized.

Even if he is in a great rhythm and has time, passes thrown 40 yards downfield have a low percentage of success not just for Tom but for anybody. 33%? 40? With Moss sure it was higher.

Let's be conservative an say 70% success rate on short throws, which would be near his completion percentage once you remove intentional throwaways to kill the clock or avoid a sack.

10 yard catch + 10 yard run after catch: 70%
then another 10 yard catch + 10 yard run after catch: 70%

Two plays taken together, then, give me 0.7 X 0.7 = 49% chance of gaining 40 yards.

The odds of getting that in one long throw is less than 49% for sure, and also has a higher rate of being intercepted based simply on more defensive reaction time and higher margin of error on behalf of the receiver running the route or the QB getting proper loft and placement of the ball. It has has a higher chance of pass protection breaking down and Tom taking a vicious hit or sack, since the play takes longer to develop.

I don't think it's complicated. We look at what gives us the greatest chance to succeed.

 

[FCB02062]

Brady isn't a bad long ball passer, but the guy is just out of practice. He hasn't had a consistent target out wide since Moss left, but Lloyd should change things.

Seeing as he is one of the most accurate passers to ever play the game, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt.

What - are you forgetting all those BOMBS to Sam "Deep Threat" Aiken during the 09 season????