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The Importance of the #3 Seed...

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by aluminum seats, Dec 18, 2006.

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  1. aluminum seats

    aluminum seats Rookie

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    Or should I say, the importance of the seed that avoids San Diego as long as possible. At this point, the Pats have essentially no shot at a bye (I suppose it's not impossible if McNair's out--the Ravens would have to lose to Pittsburgh and Buffalo, while the Colts would have to lose tonight and then to Miami in the season finale while the Pats win out. So it's highly unlikely).

    The bye would obviously have been huge, but I don't think anyone doubts the Pats can win their home game in the wildcard round. The question then is who they play next. I think travelling to San Diego, playing a rested Chargers team, would be extremely difficult to do--I'd give the Pats a 10% shot at winning. But I think a game against, say, the Ravens would be very winnable, with the possibility that the Colts beat San Diego and the Pats get the Colts at home. THAT game I could see the Pats winning. And I think we've all seen enough of the NFC this year to know that the Pats--then having a two-week rest, would probably win the Super Bowl.

    So.....how to avoid San Diego? I think it's actually hard to say--you'd have to guess that it means getting the #3 seed, assuming San Diego finishes first. But if the Chargers lose to Seattle and end up tied with Baltimore, maybe the Ravens would be the #1 seed (Looks to me like it'd be tied on conference record, and I'm too lazy to research further). Remaining games of the division leaders are:

    San Diego 12-2, @ Seattle, AZ
    Baltimore 11-3, @ Pitt, Buffalo
    Indy 10-3, Cincy, @ Houston, Miami
    Pats 10-4, @ Jax, @ Tenn

    At any rate, if I had to predict I'd say the Colts losing tonight might be very important to the Pats' Super Bowl hopes.
  2. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Well, the Colts losing tonight is high on my Christmas list, but then that's every game for them. I will also add expecting the Colts to pull it out against Ladanian Tomlinson and his associates is just a tad wishful...:(
  3. HoyaPats

    HoyaPats Rookie

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    LT would run for 350 yards against the Colts, haha. I would go as far as saying that it's almost inevitable that the Chargers will be in the AFC Championship game, so assuming we make it that far we will have to play them anyway.
  4. aluminum seats

    aluminum seats Rookie

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    Agreed that the road most likely goes through San Diego regardless, but the goal is to put that off as long as possible, knowing that weird things can and do happen.
  5. SamBam39

    SamBam39 Rookie

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    I agree that it's at least possible that the colts could knock off the chargers.

    The pats could as well but it will definately be tough.

    I think they're the best team in football right now and I think they are gonna win the super bowl.

    but I'm hoping to get lucky ! :)
  6. PromisedLand

    PromisedLand Virtual Internet Person

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    ................
  7. Michigan Dave

    Michigan Dave Rookie

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    We're pretty much a lock at #4. Indy would have to lose 2 of 3, and while I see them losing to Cincy tonight, I doubt Houston or Miami gets them.
  8. Armen Da Pats Fan

    Armen Da Pats Fan Rookie

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    Yes, unless Belichi- er - Schottenheimer - inexplicably decides to abandon the run in the a second half!
  9. mgcolby

    mgcolby Woohoo, I'm a VIP!!! PatsFans.com Supporter

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    That is going to go down as one of the most unexplainable things of this entire season. Why didn't teams continue to pound the ball against the Colts? Team after Team would run all over them but feel the need to throw the ball which plays right into the only strength of the Colts defense. It amazed me week after week I would watch the Colts and I would watch their opponents do the exact same thing, run it down the field and then get near the red zone and suddenly they would start throwing the football. :bricks:
  10. richpats

    richpats Banned

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    Advantages to being #3:

    -Play the #6 seed (though in '06 there isn't much difference between 5/6)
    -Guaranteed to play #2 in the divisional (if we win the WC game)
    -Chance we may host the title game if #1 (San Diego) is upset

    Disadvantages:

    -The #6 seed could be "better" than #5 at that point, or just a team you have problems with (see Denver)
    -The #2 gets to focus their preparation for the bye week on the #3 team (4,5 not as much)
  11. scout

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    Or run a double reverse to trick them up. I also would like to see Cincy put it to the Colts tonight. In addition to always enjoying anyone beating the Colts, I have 3.5 points and Cincy to cap my parlay for $60 big ones.
  12. mgcolby

    mgcolby Woohoo, I'm a VIP!!! PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I forgot about that.

    Nice, good luck

    I hit on a parlay yesterday. I had: StL +3\StL-Oak under 40 and Philly +6
  13. spacecrime

    spacecrime Rookie

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    This comes up every year. How can we sneak into the third round (AFCCG) of the playoffs? What is the weakest team we can meet?

    Third or fourth seed only matters if your goal is to lose in the third round rather than the second round.

    If your goal is to get to the superbowl, you will have to play the best teams in the AFC to get there. Third of fourth seed is irrelevant.

    If you want your team to be the best in the NFL, embrace thier beating the best teams, not pray for them to back in. Go for it, hold nothing back. If they lose, they lose, but if they win: Oh, yeah, nothing's sweeter than championing your team whatever the odds.
  14. dhamz

    dhamz Rookie

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    If you really think that San Diego is a notch above then you want to play them as early as possible.

    You want them in round 2 when Rivers is in his first playoff game. When they may be rusty after not having played a meaningful game in weeks. When Marty has to answer questions about how last time he brought a really good Chargers team to the playoffs it didn't win a single game.

    That is when they are most likely to get beat.
  15. VJCPatriot

    VJCPatriot Rookie

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    Well seeing as the highest the Pats could aim is #3, and seeing as the Bolts are going to be #1, and seeing as that means the Pats wouldn't have to face the Bolts until the AFCC if we make it that far if we're #3, I say go for #3. Besides it's always good to finish the season on a high note.
  16. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Is it definite that we lose a tiebreaker to Baltimore?
    Does it change on a 3way tie with Colts
  17. aluminum seats

    aluminum seats Rookie

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    Completely disagree that who the Pats play is "irrelevent." The goal is to win the SB, and to maximize your chances to get there. It's not "backing in", it's hoping for the best scenario.

    dhamz, your point is a fair one, but there are two issues I have with it. Number one, I do think SD is clearly the best team, and there's a chance they'd get beat before the Pats would have to play them. Second, if we play them in the championship game, we'd have a week off after that, if we win. The cross-country flight impacts the following week's game as well.
  18. mgcolby

    mgcolby Woohoo, I'm a VIP!!! PatsFans.com Supporter

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    We lose all tie breakers in a two or three way tie with the Colts or Ravens. The only way we can jump ahead of them is by having them drop two games each and us winning out. I don't think Baltimore will lose to Buffalo, I do think they will lose to Pittsburgh. I think Indy loses tonight and possibly to Miami.
  19. scout

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    Those were the same teams I had minus Philly. Congrats.
  20. mgcolby

    mgcolby Woohoo, I'm a VIP!!! PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Thanks. I did well with Philly yesterday. The Giants shouldn't be favored by 6 against anyone.
  21. Fanfrom1960

    Fanfrom1960 Rookie

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    Pats have to make it in first. I bet Belichick and company would dictate 20 one handed pushups and 20 laps if anyone gets caught talking playoffs.

    What I also wanted to say is: A Daisuke sighting! Some football only bigots here will give you s h i t. :)
  22. PatsFanSince74

    PatsFanSince74 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Um, I think I'm as much of a homer as the next guy when it comes to believing in the team I've watched and supported for over 30 years, but exactly which team are you talking about here? The one that has already lost at home to the Colts, Broncos and (gag!) the Jets, or are you talking about some other team?

    I like our chances in Foxboro in January as much as anybody but I'd be dumb not to have doubts. I actually like our chances better against an inexperienced Rivers in the playoffs (BB always seems to figure out how to confuse guys like him) than I do against a team like the Broncos, whom we could well get in the Wild Card Round (not that we're even in the Playoffs yet).

    So, one step at a time. Let's clinch the division, hopefully rest our starters in Nashville and be ready for a tough game in the Wild Card round.
  23. aluminum seats

    aluminum seats Rookie

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    The key word I used is "can." I hardly think the first round game is a lock. But since the purpose of the thread was to discuss the benefits of #3 vs. #4 I wasn't analyzing the first game.

    Belichek does gameplan well against rookie QBs. That said, the Chargers are clearly the team to avoid at this point.
  24. mgcolby

    mgcolby Woohoo, I'm a VIP!!! PatsFans.com Supporter

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    So you think BB can confuse a third year pro (a first year starter), but you don't think he could confuse a true rookie - who by Wild Card weekend will have started a whopping 5 games in the NFL? :confused:
  25. VJCPatriot

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    Yeah I know BB and company are all for the one game at a time approach. And that's fine since it works. But that's not binding to the fans! Big picture, if we get #3 seed we improve our chances a lot so that's what I'm hoping we can get. Just 2 more wins by the Pats should seal the deal.

    PS Yup I got a Dice-K banner. Go ahead and give me crap for it but it was too sweet NOT to use!
  26. 40yrpatsfan

    40yrpatsfan PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I think there's an excellent chance of Baltimore losing to Pitt and Buffalo, a better chance than Indy losing two. The problem is us winning both our games. Chances are we'll end up as the #4 seed.

    I agree that playing SD in their 1st playoff game is the best shot at knocking them off. Rivers and the Chargers would be cursing their luck having the #1 seed and bye, and having to face NE in their 1st playoff game. I wish Junior were available for THAT game.
  27. QB12

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    With respect to the #2 seed, here's a concise, pithy way of putting it, from Tomase's piece in today's Herald:

    "The Pats take to the road for season-ending contests against Jacksonville and Tennessee still with an outside shot at earning a first-round playoff bye. They must win out and hope that two out of San Diego, Indianapolis and Baltimore finish with fewer than 12 victories."

    QB12
  28. aluminum seats

    aluminum seats Rookie

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    Well, it's concise & pithy but sort of misleading. San Diego already has 12 wins.
  29. Fanfrom1960

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    Not me. I've got enough fan energy/paranoia for the Patriots and the Red Sox. Celtics too if they ever get it back together.
  30. MrBigglesWorth

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    Whoever they play in the AFC is going to be tough, especially with their lackluster passing game.
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