The Importance of the #3 Seed...

[aluminum seats]

Or should I say, the importance of the seed that avoids San Diego as long as possible. At this point, the Pats have essentially no shot at a bye (I suppose it's not impossible if McNair's out--the Ravens would have to lose to Pittsburgh and Buffalo, while the Colts would have to lose tonight and then to Miami in the season finale while the Pats win out. So it's highly unlikely).

The bye would obviously have been huge, but I don't think anyone doubts the Pats can win their home game in the wildcard round. The question then is who they play next. I think travelling to San Diego, playing a rested Chargers team, would be extremely difficult to do--I'd give the Pats a 10% shot at winning. But I think a game against, say, the Ravens would be very winnable, with the possibility that the Colts beat San Diego and the Pats get the Colts at home. THAT game I could see the Pats winning. And I think we've all seen enough of the NFC this year to know that the Pats--then having a two-week rest, would probably win the Super Bowl.

So.....how to avoid San Diego? I think it's actually hard to say--you'd have to guess that it means getting the #3 seed, assuming San Diego finishes first. But if the Chargers lose to Seattle and end up tied with Baltimore, maybe the Ravens would be the #1 seed (Looks to me like it'd be tied on conference record, and I'm too lazy to research further). Remaining games of the division leaders are:

San Diego 12-2, @ Seattle, AZ
Baltimore 11-3, @ Pitt, Buffalo
Indy 10-3, Cincy, @ Houston, Miami
Pats 10-4, @ Jax, @ Tenn

At any rate, if I had to predict I'd say the Colts losing tonight might be very important to the Pats' Super Bowl hopes.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Well, the Colts losing tonight is high on my Christmas list, but then that's every game for them. I will also add expecting the Colts to pull it out against Ladanian Tomlinson and his associates is just a tad wishful...

 

[HoyaPats]

But I think a game against, say, the Ravens would be very winnable, with the possibility that the Colts beat San Diego and the Pats get the Colts at home.

LT would run for 350 yards against the Colts, haha. I would go as far as saying that it's almost inevitable that the Chargers will be in the AFC Championship game, so assuming we make it that far we will have to play them anyway.

 

[aluminum seats]

Agreed that the road most likely goes through San Diego regardless, but the goal is to put that off as long as possible, knowing that weird things can and do happen.

 

[SamBam39]

I agree that it's at least possible that the colts could knock off the chargers.

The pats could as well but it will definately be tough.

I think they're the best team in football right now and I think they are gonna win the super bowl.

but I'm hoping to get lucky !

 

[PromisedLand]

Or should I say, the importance of the seed that avoids San Diego as long as possible. At this point, the Pats have essentially no shot at a bye (I suppose it's not impossible if McNair's out--the Ravens would have to lose to Pittsburgh and Buffalo, while the Colts would have to lose tonight and then to Miami in the season finale while the Pats win out. So it's highly unlikely).

The bye would obviously have been huge, but I don't think anyone doubts the Pats can win their home game in the wildcard round. The question then is who they play next. I think travelling to San Diego, playing a rested Chargers team, would be extremely difficult to do--I'd give the Pats a 10% shot at winning. But I think a game against, say, the Ravens would be very winnable, with the possibility that the Colts beat San Diego and the Pats get the Colts at home. THAT game I could see the Pats winning. And I think we've all seen enough of the NFC this year to know that the Pats--then having a two-week rest, would probably win the Super Bowl.

So.....how to avoid San Diego? I think it's actually hard to say--you'd have to guess that it means getting the #3 seed, assuming San Diego finishes first. But if the Chargers lose to Seattle and end up tied with Baltimore, maybe the Ravens would be the #1 seed (Looks to me like it'd be tied on conference record, and I'm too lazy to research further). Remaining games of the division leaders are:

San Diego 12-2, @ Seattle, AZ
Baltimore 11-3, @ Pitt, Buffalo
Indy 10-3, Cincy, @ Houston, Miami
Pats 10-4, @ Jax, @ Tenn

At any rate, if I had to predict I'd say the Colts losing tonight might be very important to the Pats' Super Bowl hopes.

The Colts need to lose 2 of their last 3 to drop below us in the seedings, since they beat us head to head.

................

 

[Michigan Dave]

We're pretty much a lock at #4. Indy would have to lose 2 of 3, and while I see them losing to Cincy tonight, I doubt Houston or Miami gets them.

 

[Armen Da Pats Fan]

LT would run for 350 yards against the Colts, haha. I would go as far as saying that it's almost inevitable that the Chargers will be in the AFC Championship game, so assuming we make it that far we will have to play them anyway.

Yes, unless Belichi- er - Schottenheimer - inexplicably decides to abandon the run in the a second half!

 

[mgcolby]

Yes, unless Belichi- er - Schottenheimer - inexplicably decides to abandon the run in the a second half!

That is going to go down as one of the most unexplainable things of this entire season. Why didn't teams continue to pound the ball against the Colts? Team after Team would run all over them but feel the need to throw the ball which plays right into the only strength of the Colts defense. It amazed me week after week I would watch the Colts and I would watch their opponents do the exact same thing, run it down the field and then get near the red zone and suddenly they would start throwing the football. :bricks:

 

[richpats]

Advantages to being #3:

-Play the #6 seed (though in '06 there isn't much difference between 5/6)
-Guaranteed to play #2 in the divisional (if we win the WC game)
-Chance we may host the title game if #1 (San Diego) is upset

Disadvantages:

-The #6 seed could be "better" than #5 at that point, or just a team you have problems with (see Denver)
-The #2 gets to focus their preparation for the bye week on the #3 team (4,5 not as much)

 

[scout]

That is going to go down as one of the most unexplainable things of this entire season. Why didn't teams continue to pound the ball against the Colts? Team after Team would run all over them but feel the need to throw the ball which plays right into the only strength of the Colts defense. It amazed me week after week I would watch the Colts and I would watch their opponents do the exact same thing, run it down the field and then get near the red zone and suddenly they would start throwing the football. :bricks:

Or run a double reverse to trick them up. I also would like to see Cincy put it to the Colts tonight. In addition to always enjoying anyone beating the Colts, I have 3.5 points and Cincy to cap my parlay for $60 big ones.

 

[mgcolby]

Or run a double reverse to trick them up. I also would like to see Cincy put it to the Colts tonight. In addition to always enjoying anyone beating the Colts, I have 3.5 points and Cincy to cap my parlay for $60 big ones.

I forgot about that.

Nice, good luck

I hit on a parlay yesterday. I had: StL +3\StL-Oak under 40 and Philly +6

 

[spacecrime]

This comes up every year. How can we sneak into the third round (AFCCG) of the playoffs? What is the weakest team we can meet?

Third or fourth seed only matters if your goal is to lose in the third round rather than the second round.

If your goal is to get to the superbowl, you will have to play the best teams in the AFC to get there. Third of fourth seed is irrelevant.

If you want your team to be the best in the NFL, embrace thier beating the best teams, not pray for them to back in. Go for it, hold nothing back. If they lose, they lose, but if they win: Oh, yeah, nothing's sweeter than championing your team whatever the odds.

 

[dhamz]

If you really think that San Diego is a notch above then you want to play them as early as possible.

You want them in round 2 when Rivers is in his first playoff game. When they may be rusty after not having played a meaningful game in weeks. When Marty has to answer questions about how last time he brought a really good Chargers team to the playoffs it didn't win a single game.

That is when they are most likely to get beat.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Well seeing as the highest the Pats could aim is #3, and seeing as the Bolts are going to be #1, and seeing as that means the Pats wouldn't have to face the Bolts until the AFCC if we make it that far if we're #3, I say go for #3. Besides it's always good to finish the season on a high note.

 

[Ring 6]

Is it definite that we lose a tiebreaker to Baltimore?
Does it change on a 3way tie with Colts

 

[aluminum seats]

Completely disagree that who the Pats play is "irrelevent." The goal is to win the SB, and to maximize your chances to get there. It's not "backing in", it's hoping for the best scenario.

dhamz, your point is a fair one, but there are two issues I have with it. Number one, I do think SD is clearly the best team, and there's a chance they'd get beat before the Pats would have to play them. Second, if we play them in the championship game, we'd have a week off after that, if we win. The cross-country flight impacts the following week's game as well.

 

[mgcolby]

Is it definite that we lose a tiebreaker to Baltimore?
Does it change on a 3way tie with Colts

We lose all tie breakers in a two or three way tie with the Colts or Ravens. The only way we can jump ahead of them is by having them drop two games each and us winning out. I don't think Baltimore will lose to Buffalo, I do think they will lose to Pittsburgh. I think Indy loses tonight and possibly to Miami.

 

[scout]

I forgot about that.

Nice, good luck

I hit on a parlay yesterday. I had: StL +3\StL-Oak under 40 and Philly +6

Those were the same teams I had minus Philly. Congrats.

 

[mgcolby]

Those were the same teams I had minus Philly. Congrats.

Thanks. I did well with Philly yesterday. The Giants shouldn't be favored by 6 against anyone.