The Houston game

[Triggerfish]

Actually, a Texans win knocks the Steelers out.

UNLESS the Ravens, Broncos, and Jets ALL lose. VERY unlikely, but a Houston win doesn't 100% guarantee Pitt is out....more like 99.9%. So, yea...just beat the damn Texans this week, would ya?!

 

[upstater1]

hey guys, if the jets win they are in. if the ravens win, they too are in. the ravens play the raiders, which they should win even though it's in Oakland. The jets are playing Cincy who may rest their starters. Cincy will know whether they have a shot at the 3rd seed since the game is on Sunday Night...by then they'll know whether the pats won or not. In addition, Denver plays KC so they may have a better shot than the steelers. Thus with the ravens, jets and broncos with better shots at getting into the playoffs I just don't see a realistic chance for the steelers to make it.

It would be in our best interest to win on Sunday and not give any chance to the steelers of making it. If we win, Cincy rests their players and squeezes the steelers out.

Steelers do have a tiebreaker with the Broncos, so they could get in ahead.

For the Broncos to make it in before the Steelers, the Broncos MUST have a Houston win to create a 3-way tie which eliminates the head-to-head tiebreaker.

Houston, Den and Pitt are all hoping and praying while the Jets and Baltimore can control their own destiny.

 

[TruthSeeker]

Never, never purposely lose a game.

I disagree. You lose a game when it is to your advantage.

We want to have momentum going into the playoffs.

Momentum? Momentum is the most overrated intagible of all. Statistical studies show the teams "with momentum" do absolutely no better than teams "without momentum".

The goal is to win the Super Bowl. You do whatever makes the most sense to get there. It's OK to lose some battles if you win the war.

 

[micronin127]

We're not playing the Jets. It's impossible. The Jets get the #5 seed with a win, and we can't be the #4 seed if Cincy loses.

We get Baltimore if Baltimore beats Oakland no matter what happens in any other game including our own.

I think Cincy will play the Jets tough and WIN. Why? Because Cincy can imagine the Patriots beating Indy in the first game, and then hosting the Patriots for the AFCCG.

I was mistaken. It is the Broncos (not the Ravens) who if the season ended today would be the #5 seed. The Ravens used to control their destiny until they lost to the Steelers.

Here's the link to ESPN's playoff page:
A look at the scenarios if the NFL playoffs started today - ESPN

If the Broncos and Jets both win, we play the Jets. The Broncos are at home playing the Chiefs, so that looks like good odds that they are the #5 seed.

I'm not opposed to resting guys who are hurt like Wilfork and Warren. It gives some reps to Pryor, Wright, Green, and Brace.

I still think that we should try to win the game. Winning is a good habit.

 

[upstater1]

UNLESS the Ravens, Broncos, and Jets ALL lose. VERY unlikely, but a Houston win doesn't 100% guarantee Pitt is out....more like 99.9%. So, yea...just beat the damn Texans this week, would ya?!

Correct.

I ignore such scenarios, and I guess I shouldn't.

There's always the 8-8 scenarios which blow all this out of the water.

People may not realize this but Jax is sitting pretty at 8-8, if all but one team loses their games.

Pitt and Jax could indeed be the wildcard teams.

 

[everlong]

I'm not sure what you're saying here.

For the Steelers to play Indy, they would beat the Patriots first.

so the Patriots would be out of the playoffs.

I was thinking the Pats would be the 4 and Pitt the 6 but you're correct.

 

[lostjumper]

I want to go into the playoffs as healthy as possible. If that means we have to sit some key guys to allow injuries to heal, than so be it.

 

[upstater1]

I was mistaken. It is the Broncos (not the Ravens) who if the season ended today would be the #5 seed. The Ravens used to control their destiny until they lost to the Steelers.

Here's the link to ESPN's playoff page:
A look at the scenarios if the NFL playoffs started today - ESPN

If the Broncos and Jets both win, we play the Jets. The Broncos are at home playing the Chiefs, so that looks like good odds that they are the #5 seed.

I'm not opposed to resting guys who are hurt like Wilfork and Warren. It gives some reps to Pryor, Wright, Green, and Brace.

I still think that we should try to win the game. Winning is a good habit.

Again, it's impossible for us to play the Jets. The Broncos also need help. You can't base next week's scenarios on what would happen if the week ended today because next week some of the common games tiebreakers kick in (i.e. at least 4 common games are required and right now there are only 3 games in common for some teams).

Not to mention the fact that the ESPN page is wrong because Baltimore has a head-to-head tie-breaker over Den (and so does Pitt).

This means the page you're linking to is totally wrong for this week, not to mention next week.

I would bet everything that we will not play the Jets. It's impossible.

 

[upstater1]

I want to go into the playoffs as healthy as possible. If that means we have to sit some key guys to allow injuries to heal, than so be it.

I agree with this, but here's the problem.

If you sit Moss and say Neal etc., do you want Brady out there the whole game?

I don't want Brady out there unless he has the full compliment of players with him.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Momentum? Momentum is the most overrated intagible of all. Statistical studies show the teams "with momentum" do absolutely no better than teams "without momentum".

Seriously, I'm suprised everybody is so entangled in this momentum stuff. Let's look at the January's of some recent champions:
2008: Steelers - Week 16 lose big to the #1 seed Titans. Then a meaningless win over the Browns to close out the season
2007: Giants - 1-2 in the last 3 weeks of the regular season. Lost to us on the final week.
2006: Colts - 2-3 in December

The 2005 Steelers were really the last team you can say had "momentum" going into the playoffs when they rode in on a 4 game winning streak. It's really a different ballgame in January regardless of how you play your last few weeks.

 

[everlong]

Actually there is a scenario where the Pats would be the 3 seed and the Steelers the 5 seed so it would be conceivable for the Steelers to play Indy while the Pats play SD.

 

[upstater1]

Actually there is a scenario where the Pats would be the 3 seed and the Steelers the 5 seed so it would be conceivable for the Steelers to play Indy while the Pats play SD.

Yes, it is possible. I excluded crazy scenarios like, all teams lose but one. I also didn't include the 8-8 team makes the playoffs scenario (Jax looks good in such an event). But it is true that Steelers could go #5 seed and Broncos/Jax/Jets go #6 seed.

People may not realize this but the Jets could get into the playoffs with a loss!!!

 

[SHOWTIME15]

I was mistaken. It is the Broncos (not the Ravens) who if the season ended today would be the #5 seed. The Ravens used to control their destiny until they lost to the Steelers.

Here's the link to ESPN's playoff page:
A look at the scenarios if the NFL playoffs started today - ESPN

If the Broncos and Jets both win, we play the Jets. The Broncos are at home playing the Chiefs, so that looks like good odds that they are the #5 seed.

I'm not opposed to resting guys who are hurt like Wilfork and Warren. It gives some reps to Pryor, Wright, Green, and Brace.

I still think that we should try to win the game. Winning is a good habit.

true but i think that if the ravens win, they would hold the tie breaker over the steelers and broncos, even though they are not currently the 6th seed. at least that what they said on TV yesterday. Baltimore will probably beat Oakland, which means they are in. If Cincy decides to go all out and the Jets lose, then I think Denver sneaks in. I think that we will end up hosting Baltimore or Denver, both rematches. I do expect the bengals to tank their game so that means the steelers are out and jets in. The jets have to face cincy again, and we would host baltimore.

anyway, this article is a pretty good summary of what has to happen.

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/ravens/bal-te.sp.ravens28dec28,0,6300894.story

 

[Triggerfish]

true but i think that if the ravens win, they would hold the tie breaker over the steelers and broncos, even though they are not currently the 6th seed. at least that what they said on TV yesterday. Baltimore will probably beat Oakland, which means they are in. If Cincy decides to go all out and the Jets lose, then I think Denver sneaks in. I think that we will end up hosting Baltimore or Denver, both rematches.

If both Baltimore AND Cincinnatti WIN, Denver can only get into the playoffs with a Texans WIN. So, are you assuming the Pats rest their starters and give Houston the game?

 

[upstater1]

true but i think that if the ravens win, they would hold the tie breaker over the steelers and broncos, even though they are not currently the 6th seed. at least that what they said on TV yesterday. Baltimore will probably beat Oakland, which means they are in. If Cincy decides to go all out and the Jets lose, then I think Denver sneaks in. I think that we will end up hosting Baltimore or Denver, both rematches. I do expect the bengals to tank their game so that means the steelers are out and jets in. The jets have to face cincy again, and we would host baltimore.

anyway, this article is a pretty good summary of what has to happen.

Ravens want to put loss behind them, focus on Oakland -- baltimoresun.com

Steelers get ahead of Den in a two-way tie, and Den gets ahead of the Steelers in a 3-way tie (except if the 3rd team is Baltimore).

Baltimore should be the #2 seed currently on everyone's card.

 

[upstater1]

If both Baltimore AND Cincinnatti WIN, Denver can only get into the playoffs with a Texans WIN. So, are you assuming the Pats rest their starters and give Houston the game?

I'd be willing to bet that the Patriots play hard and pull their starters in the 3rd quarter.

But they will sit a lot of guys, Warren, Wilfork, etc. to start the game.

 

[micronin127]

Again, it's impossible for us to play the Jets. The Broncos also need help. You can't base next week's scenarios on what would happen if the week ended today because next week some of the common games tiebreakers kick in (i.e. at least 4 common games are required and right now there are only 3 games in common for some teams).

Not to mention the fact that the ESPN page is wrong because Baltimore has a head-to-head tie-breaker over Den (and so does Pitt).

This means the page you're linking to is totally wrong for this week, not to mention next week.

I would bet everything that we will not play the Jets. It's impossible.

Same exact rankings at CBS Sportsline.
NFL 2009 Playoff Race - CBSSports.com

Denver earns the No. 5 seed over N.Y. Jets and Baltimore based on strength of victory (.513 to Jets' .492 and Ravens' .387) and conference record over Houston (6-5 to Texans' 5-6).

N.Y. Jets earn the No. 6 seed over Baltimore based on strength of victory (.492 to Ravens' .387) and conference record over Houston (6-5 to Texans' 5-6).

However, you are correct that Denver does not control their destiny.

 

[upstater1]

Same exact rankings at CBS Sportsline.
NFL 2009 Playoff Race - CBSSports.com

Denver earns the No. 5 seed over N.Y. Jets and Baltimore based on strength of victory (.513 to Jets' .492 and Ravens' .387) and conference record over Houston (6-5 to Texans' 5-6).

N.Y. Jets earn the No. 6 seed over Baltimore based on strength of victory (.492 to Ravens' .387) and conference record over Houston (6-5 to Texans' 5-6).

However, you are correct that Denver does not control their destiny.

Before strength of victory comes head-to-head, and Baltimore has a H2H win against the Broncos.

Also, common opponents comes before strength of victory, and those common opponents scenarios kick in after week 17 when Den will have played at least 4 common games with the Jets.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

If both Baltimore AND Cincinnatti WIN, Denver can only get into the playoffs with a Texans WIN. So, are you assuming the Pats rest their starters and give Houston the game?

no, i assume NE wins. I thought Denver can get in by beating KC and a Baltimore loss and Pitt loss. I think Denver getting in is a longer shot, especially since they don't have the tiebreaker over Pitt(head to head).

 

[upstater1]

no, i assume NE wins. Then I thought Denver can get in by beating KC and a Baltimore loss.

No, Den would be out if Pitt wins. Pitt holds head-to-head tiebreaker. Den absolutely NEEDS Houston to beat the Patriots.