The FOOTBALL decision of letting AV go.

[stinkypete]

I think that as frustrated fans, we choose to look at all these departures as pure business decisions. This compounds our frustrations. Why, with $20 million to spend, would we let AV go.

I think that, in the end, it is a football decision. Why did AV seem so determined to go, so pissed, even. Honest truth is, management probably wasn't intrested in bringing him back. I liken it to the departures of Bledsoe and Milloy, even Ted Washington. In hindsight, do any of us question the football decision of letting them go?

My theory is this: AV, despite being the greatest clutch kicker ever to play the game, has always been weak at kickoffs. In particular, he produces very few touchbacks. While this is a trivial matter to a casual fan, or an angry homer, it makes a huge difference in the game. Think about it. The difference in opponents field position between a touchback and a returned kickoff is an average of 10-15 yards. On the scoreboard, that translates to points allowed.

 

[Miguel]

Then why make any kind of offer to Adam??

Did the Patriots make those offers just for the PR value??

If kickoff length was so important to the Patriots, why did they contact Vanderjagt who kicked off just one time last year???

Out of the available kickers, only Mare had a better kickoff average in 2005 than did Adam. Todd Peterson did not kick off at all last year.

 

[dhamz]

Are we really allowed to discuss the football aspect?

I really think the kickoff thing is being overrated. Do they offer him the 2 million plus a year (even not guarenteed) that they did if that was the reason? No way.

The issue would more likely be - back injury and in their mind it's causing a decline in his performance. We know that he has had back issues in recent years. His perfomrance in 2 of the last 3 years was average. By the end of this year it was clear that the Pats no longer trusted him from longer range. There were multiple occasions in the first half of the Jacksonville game where they were in FG range but either pooch punted or went for it. They would not have done that in the past.

I think it was about not wanting to tie themsleves long term at top value to a guy they just weren't sure was going to play up to it for the length of the deal.

The Pats are of the school of thought that when given the choice of getting rid of a guy a year too early or a year too late that you bite the bullet and go with too early. That is what I think they did here.

 

[JR4]

Are we really allowed to discuss the football aspect?

I really think the kickoff thing is being overrated. Do they offer him the 2 million plus a year (even not guarenteed) that they did if that was the reason? No way.

The issue would more likely be - back injury and in their mind it's causing a decline in his performance. We know that he has had back issues in recent years. His perfomrance in 2 of the last 3 years was average. By the end of this year it was clear that the Pats no longer trusted him from longer range. There were multiple occasions in the first half of the Jacksonville game where they were in FG range but either pooch punted or went for it. They would not have done that in the past.

I think it was about not wanting to tie themsleves long term at top value to a guy they just weren't sure was going to play up to it for the length of the deal.

The Pats are of the school of thought that when given the choice of getting rid of a guy a year too early or a year too late that you bite the bullet and go with too early. That is what I think they did here.

exactly ... good post

 

[bogey888]

excellent response

Sell high Buy low...Long live the PATRIOTS!

 

[Ring 6]

Simply, there is a price. I dont think it actually is total contract value, but structure as well.

Its easy to say exceed your price since it wasnt a whole lot more, but project that across a roster, and you have trouble.

I think BB valued AV almost as highly as anyone.
Potential decline (it is true that we punted last year in spots we would have kicked FGs in the past)
Injury issues
Kickoffs

These all factor in.

If you look at everything you would consider in a FA K decision, AV had one thing driving up his price....clutch kicking.
If you consider the factors above, plus actual FG % etc, he did not deserve to be the highest paid kicker in any of those areas, but for the clutch.

The reality is that we have 2 choices:

1) A cheap young K who will be somewhat lesser in all areas (or most) buit be much cheaper....and that means we upgrade other positions with the extra $$
2) A similar K at a similar price with different strengths and weakness, some plusses and some minusses vs AV

In the end, its a kicker. Our emotional attachment is strong, and maybe rightfully placed, but as I have said all along ASIDE FROM THE SNOW BOWL arent we glorifying converting on something the average player at the position converts 80+% of the time?

 

[Sean Pa Patriot]

EEI made a great point. If we pay Adam the 3 Million, Adam will be getting paid more than everybody than 4 people.. Brady , Colvin, Seymoer and I forgot the fourth person... But would we want to pay Adam more than Tedy Bruschi, Deion Branch, Daniel Graham, Matt Light, Rodney Harrison???? I dont think so....

 

[CrazyDave]

Simply, there is a price. I dont think it actually is total contract value, but structure as well.

Its easy to say exceed your price since it wasnt a whole lot more, but project that across a roster, and you have trouble.

I think BB valued AV almost as highly as anyone.
Potential decline (it is true that we punted last year in spots we would have kicked FGs in the past)
Injury issues
Kickoffs

These all factor in.

If you look at everything you would consider in a FA K decision, AV had one thing driving up his price....clutch kicking.
If you consider the factors above, plus actual FG % etc, he did not deserve to be the highest paid kicker in any of those areas, but for the clutch.

The reality is that we have 2 choices:

1) A cheap young K who will be somewhat lesser in all areas (or most) buit be much cheaper....and that means we upgrade other positions with the extra $$
2) A similar K at a similar price with different strengths and weakness, some plusses and some minusses vs AV

In the end, its a kicker. Our emotional attachment is strong, and maybe rightfully placed, but as I have said all along ASIDE FROM THE SNOW BOWL arent we glorifying converting on something the average player at the position converts 80+% of the time?

Sounds like the voice of reason.

 

[mgteich]

How much would we have offered Adam if he played for another team last year?

My guess is that our puny offer to AV was higher than we would have offered a kicker with similar prospects for the next three years.

 

[tailgater]

Then why make any kind of offer to Adam??

Did the Patriots make those offers just for the PR value??

If kickoff length was so important to the Patriots, why did they contact Vanderjagt who kicked off just one time last year???

Out of the available kickers, only Mare had a better kickoff average in 2005 than did Adam. Todd Peterson did not kick off at all last year.

I don't think it had anything to do with his kickoffs. There are few, if any, kickers getting touchback consistently, especially in cold weather. Rackers is doing it...in AZ. I don't see Elam doing it in Denver too often, even with the altitude.

I do think the Pats made a genuine offer and wanted him back for at least one year. I also think they believe he is in decline and not worth the multiyear investment.

One point I heard a caller make this am was how many times the Pats went for it on 4th & short inside the 40 last season. He even had a pooch punt. As Adam has always explained, he and BB talk before each game wht he thinks his range is, given the conditions, etc, so is his range getting shorter?