The first pick of day 2 of the draft should be the Patriots via Carolina.

[patfanken]

Disagree, the marginal revenue exceeds the marginal pay of another 3, 5 or 7 rookie contract guys or vet. min players. Let's take one additional game at Gillette --- 68,000 seats at an average ticket price of $115 --- assume a sell-out, and that produces marginal revenue of $7.8 million. 7 10 years in the league vet min guys with no signing bonus are paid $850,00 apiece, for total expanded salary costs of $6 million dollars. This excludes any additional parking, food or beer revenue. It also excludes any additional TV revenue.

This is a bit of an extreme analysis, as the Pats have the most expensive tickets, but I am also giving the Pats the most expensive JAGS for the example. More likely, the additional gate revenue produces five to six million for the owners while they shell out 2.5 to 3.5 million for the bottom of the roster.

This is very interesting, especially if you consider that based on your estimate, in 10 games the total revenue from ticket sales for the year is about $78MM, or slightly less than HALF what the team pays JUST in player salaries, let alone the massive operating costs of running the stadium, football operating costs, coaches, marketing, travel, etc, etc, etc.

Does anyone have any idea what the teams get in TV revenues, it would have to be in the hundreds of millions/year for any team to make money.

 

[Off The Grid]

Leave us not forget: The Salary Cap is a percentage of Sales, if I have it right.

How that percentage is divided up ~ whether 53 ways or 60 ways ~ does not affect the percentage.

The idea is that if there are 12.5% more games ~ 18 ~ then there will prospectively be increased Revenue for ALL.

Win ~ Win.

 

[dryheat44]

Leave us not forget: The Salary Cap is a percentage of Sales, if I have it right.

How that percentage is divided up ~ whether 53 ways or 60 ways ~ does not affect the percentage.

The idea is that if there are 12.5% more games ~ 18 ~ then there will prospectively be increased Revenue for ALL.

Win ~ Win.

The Salary Cap is a percentage of most revenue streams. Everything outside of Stadium naming rights, plus the owners get the first 1B off the top. The rest goes into the pie.

But the issue here isn't the Salary Cap for the owners...it's real dollars. The two are entwined to a point, but the Cap is simply an accounting device. The actual dollars is where the owners allegedly are not making enough to pay off debt service and still profitably running their business.

 

[Metaphors]

Does anyone have any idea what the teams get in TV revenues, it would have to be in the hundreds of millions/year for any team to make money.

I thought the total national TV revenue was in the $4B range, which would be about $125M per team. That is probably in the ballpark since I also thought I heard that the cap was more or less aligned with the per team revenue from TV contracts.

 

[brian0899]

OK, enough about revenues and back to the draft talk...

I say if we're lucky a high-profile or high-need player slides way down to 32 or 33, and some team gets desperate. Maybe a QB slides, or a team thinks it HAS TO HAVE the player there.

Anyhow, for players I could see getting replaced on the current roster:

DEFENSE: DT Kyle Love & Daryl Richard, CB Jonathan Wilhite (please), S Jarad Page, LBs Tracy White & Pierre Woods.
Imagine these guys being replaced on a Sunday by Allen Bailey, Ty Warren, Leigh Bodden, Robert Sands, Shareece Wright, Jeremy Beal and Mark Herzlich. Talk about depth...

OFFENSE: Mankins, Taylor, Morris.
...Clint Boling, Daniel Thomas and Brandon Saine? OK, maybe not so good there except for Thomas.


I could also see NE trading S Brandon Meriweather - I know that is surprising but I think his value is high and if they could get a 1st or 2nd rounder, maybe...

 

[MustaphaM0nd]

OK, enough about revenues and back to the draft talk...

I say if we're lucky a high-profile or high-need player slides way down to 32 or 33, and some team gets desperate. Maybe a QB slides, or a team thinks it HAS TO HAVE the player there.

Anyhow, for players I could see getting replaced on the current roster:

DEFENSE: DT Kyle Love & Daryl Richard, CB Jonathan Wilhite (please), S Jarad Page, LBs Tracy White & Pierre Woods.
Imagine these guys being replaced on a Sunday by Allen Bailey, Ty Warren, Leigh Bodden, Robert Sands, Shareece Wright, Jeremy Beal and Mark Herzlich. Talk about depth...

OFFENSE: Mankins, Taylor, Morris.
...Clint Boling, Daniel Thomas and Brandon Saine? OK, maybe not so good there except for Thomas.


I could also see NE trading S Brandon Meriweather - I know that is surprising but I think his value is high and if they could get a 1st or 2nd rounder, maybe...

Meriweather is a FA after this season. Either we resign him or he's going to walk.

 

[SirApropos]

Meriweather is a FA after this season. Either we resign him or he's going to walk.

Meriweather is signed through 2011 so is not a FA until 2012.

I think they will let him walk though and just get the 3rd Rnd Comp pick for him.

I do think the Pats will probably select his replacement in the 2011 draft though, maybe Rahim Morris from UCLA in round 2.

 

[thek1d]

Meriweather is signed through 2011 so is not a FA until 2012.

I think they will let him walk though and just get the 3rd Rnd Comp pick for him.

I do think the Pats will probably select his replacement in the 2011 draft though, maybe Rahim Morris from UCLA in round 2.

I feel like Chung is becoming the safety they hoped Merriweather would turn in to.

Between Sanders, Chung, and McGowan coming back next year, I like our group of safeties. I can see them drafting another one though.

 

[SirApropos]

Between Sanders, Chung, and McGowan coming back next year, I like our group of safeties. I can see them drafting another one though.

McGowan is actually a free agent in 2011. For Draft purposes I am also high on Quinton Carter FS Oklahoma in the late 3rd/4th round.

 

[dryheat44]

I feel like Chung is becoming the safety they hoped Merriweather would turn in to.

Between Sanders, Chung, and McGowan coming back next year, I like our group of safeties. I can see them drafting another one though.

I don't know if McGowan's coming back, but Page is a real good player, and I've been pleasantly surprised by Sergio Brown.

 

[MustaphaM0nd]

Don't sleep on Josh Barrett. He's raw, but 6'2, 215 lbs, and a monster on special teams. Belichick might let McGowan walk if he's making strides in coverage.

 

[MaineMan]

I don't know if McGowan's coming back, but Page is a real good player, and I've been pleasantly surprised by Sergio Brown.

Yeah, I think McGowan is allowed to walk. Very good special-teamer and in-the-box run defender, but pretty much a liability in coverage. Chung is already about 99% the run defender that McGowan has been and Chung's coverage, while not great by any means is still a tad better than McGowan's has been. And Chung has more upside.

Because he's been injured, I haven't really seen enough of Page, other than on ST and some play in the box, to make a judgment. But that's also part of the problem - he was a bit of an injury issue in KC and seems to be following the same path here, so far. With that in mind and Page being only a year younger than Sanders, I'd think he'd have to demonstrate coverage skills superior to Sanders' during the rest of this season in order to be offered another, presumably more expensive, contract.

Meanwhile, Brown has already shown some ST value and in the box value and is locked up through 2013.

 

[JoeShmoe]

Meriweather is signed through 2011 so is not a FA until 2012.

I think they will let him walk though and just get the 3rd Rnd Comp pick for him.

I do think the Pats will probably select his replacement in the 2011 draft though, maybe Rahim Morris from UCLA in round 2.

good call. he'll want to 'get paid' and in all honesty he isnt that great. Sanders played more snaps against NYJ

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

Let's face it, BB is trading this pick, with an entire night of all 31 teams calling him, no way he doesn't see the value in trading the pick. The name to watch for this pick will be Cam Newton or Christian Ponder. ASSuming that Luck, Locker, and Mallett will all be taking most likely in the top ten, that will leave many teams still looking for a QB and willing to make the trade to jump everyone else to get him.

You figure that the following teams need a QB:

Absolutely Need a QB:
Arizona
San Francisco
Tennessee
Oakland

Need a new QB, but may not know it yet:
Cinncinnati
Buffalo
Carolina
Washington
Minnesota
Miami
Jacksonville
Seattle
Cleveland


The only free Agent QB, that you would want next year is a guy by the name of Peyton, but I'm pretty sure if he doesn't get re-signed, they just might franchise him...

So that is 13 teams and only 5 QBs, I think that Cincy might draft a new guy and trade Palmer to Arizona or someone like that (hey, that would be a good trade for both sides). San Fran almost has to use thier pick on a QB, the mess in Tennessee will have to be figured out, maybe Fischer gets fired and they hired Harbaugh and he drafts his guy in Luck. Either Fischer or Vince Young is leaving Tennessee. McNabb is DONE, stick a fork in him. Ditto for Hasslebeck (sidenote: I would take him as Brady's back-up in a heartbeat) but I think he can't take the beating anymore. Henne is clearly not the answer in Miami.

So there you have it, 13 teams, and only 5 QBs, so after day one when Luck, Locker, and Mallett are all long gone, and maybe someone pulls a Josh and drafts Newton, that will leave Ponder from Florida State as the only QB left, and someone is going to pay BB for him.........

 

[mgteich]

I don't understand why McGowan's value is being compared to Chung.

Meriweather, Sanders and Chung are our three safeties.

Sergio Brown is our #5, a special teamer who is our emergency #9 defensive back.

The 4th safety will likely be McGowan, Page or a rookie.

The 5th safety (when we have one) is primarily a special teamer since he will get almost no non-garbage reps in the defense.

Yes, there is room for a rookie to make the team and sit on the bench for a year as Chung did. The roster spot is there. Personally, I'm fine with what we have. I think Page has a FUTURE. He is 26 and hopefully can be re-signed.

Yeah, I think McGowan is allowed to walk. Very good special-teamer and in-the-box run defender, but pretty much a liability in coverage. Chung is already about 99% the run defender that McGowan has been and Chung's coverage, while not great by any means is still a tad better than McGowan's has been. And Chung has more upside.

Because he's been injured, I haven't really seen enough of Page, other than on ST and some play in the box, to make a judgment. But that's also part of the problem - he was a bit of an injury issue in KC and seems to be following the same path here, so far. With that in mind and Page being only a year younger than Sanders, I'd think he'd have to demonstrate coverage skills superior to Sanders' during the rest of this season in order to be offered another, presumably more expensive, contract.

Meanwhile, Brown has already shown some ST value and in the box value and is locked up through 2013.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Let's face it, BB is trading this pick, with an entire night of all 31 teams calling him, no way he doesn't see the value in trading the pick. The name to watch for this pick will be Cam Newton or Christian Ponder. ASSuming that Luck, Locker, and Mallett will all be taking most likely in the top ten, that will leave many teams still looking for a QB and willing to make the trade to jump everyone else to get him.

Locker has had a terrible year. I see him dropping like a rock in the draft.

The QB you are forgetting about is Folke of Arizona. I could see him sneaking into the first round or being trade bait for BB with Carolina's pick.

 

[rookBoston]

Exactly. This years draft looks to me like a Jets approach would be best. I usually hate that 'win now' approach, but every once in a while you do have to go push all of your draft chips and go 'all in'. And this NEP club is only 2-3 impact players away from another multiple championship run. Brady has a limited shelf life left - not because of desire , but because of age and the limit of how many games over the course of a career a body can handle.

BB and TB are in the debate of the best QB / HC combo of all time. (Montana / Walsh). 1-2 more trophies would put that debate firmly in our favor. Time to use all those draft chips and go all in.

I disagree with this. "win now" and "all in" are not appropriate draft strategies just because the team is good now and has a window of opportunity. Brady is an outstanding leader, has a great view of the field and is an incredibly accurate passer. But if Matt Cassell has proven anything, it's that good coaching and scouting can find talent walking the streets.

And just because this draft class is not as deep as last year's doesn't mean trading up is the right thing to do. In fact, I would say the opposite... let the draft come, and if this class is weak, then trade out of it and wait for a better class. Otherwise you risk falling into a Vernon Ghoulston-trap, a guy that this board was foaming at the mouth to draft based on his measurables alone; he has been about as productive as his college career indicated he would.

 

[patchick]

And just because this draft class is not as deep as last year's doesn't mean trading up is the right thing to do. In fact, I would say the opposite... let the draft come, and if this class is weak, then trade out of it and wait for a better class.

It's not just the depth of the draft class, it's the young depth on the roster -- and the fact that the first-round talent projects to be unusually heavy on Pats-style DEs and OLBs.

But I'm fine with trading out as well as up. I just don't see this as another 12-player draft year, I don't think that makes sense.

 

[rookBoston]

It's not just the depth of the draft class, it's the young depth on the roster -- and the fact that the first-round talent projects to be unusually heavy on Pats-style DEs and OLBs.

But I'm fine with trading out as well as up. I just don't see this as another 12-player draft year, I don't think that makes sense.

Agree with this. I will say, though, with the way the team is playing, I find the fact that it's so stocked with 1st and 2nd year players as a point of pride. Before this season is over, all those kids will be veterans.

I do think this is a good year for us to find some help on the edge of the defensive front seven. This class is very deep at DE. I was just watching film on Da'quon Bowers and he looks legit. He looks like McGinest for us, but will be out of reach with the Oakland pick.

OP was about the #33 pick, and all I can say is that I've already got my binky for that spot: Jeremy Beal. Mark it down!

And, by the way, I just want to add #33 is the best value pick in the entire draft. 1st round quality with 2nd round prices, and a whole evening to make phone calls and top off the research.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

It's not just the depth of the draft class, it's the young depth on the roster -- and the fact that the first-round talent projects to be unusually heavy on Pats-style DEs and OLBs.

But I'm fine with trading out as well as up. I just don't see this as another 12-player draft year, I don't think that makes sense.

I agree 12 players seems very difficult, but as long as BB keeps drafting for value, I would not be surprised to see another 8 or so rookies on next year's team.