The first pick of day 2 of the draft should be the Patriots via Carolina.

[UofApatsfan]

So if the Pats get the 33rd pick, we'll all try to figure out who will be picked, only to see Bill trade down/into next year...

And after the way that's worked the last two years, I can't say I'd complain in the event that happened.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

So the Pats will have back to back picks at 32 and 33, great! Yeah the 33rd pick in this latest version of the draft has become quite vaulable. St. Louis kept it last year, but give BB a night with 31 other teams calling, and he will spin that into something.

Not for lack of trying; supposedly St. Louis tried to find a trade, but nobody offered a package that they felt was worth more than the top player on their board (OT Rodger Saffold).

The Patriots would be the same way with #33—except that we know Belichick is a relatively cheap date.

 

[dryheat44]

I would too, can you imagine what he is going to do with an entire night of playing teams off each other. If the Pats end up with #33, I can almost guarentee that BB trades the pick (because hopefully they will have pick #32) for a King's ransom in picks/players.

Agreed. If he can move the pick even ahead two or three spots, he gets a fairly identical player for an extra year of a rookie contract.

I'm assuming a new CBA would have similar maximum contract lengths for rookie deals. The NFLPA isn't going to give that one back.

 

[SunnyDenmark]

from the value chart:

pick 33: =580 points

same point value as both picks-
pick 50: 400 points (mid 2nd round)
pick 82: 180 points (mid 3rd round)

I love Bills value approach in drafting, but you have to wonder with so many good 1st & 2nd year players - how many players from 2011 draft can stick to the 53 man roster? If can't move many picks into following year 2012 draft, this may be the year to do the Jets draft approach.

One thing is for certain, if Pats win it all and got pick 32 plus 33 from Carolina, no way Bill would keep both picks..

 

[jsull87]

from the value chart:

pick 33: =580 points

same point value as both picks-
pick 50: 400 points (mid 2nd round)
pick 82: 180 points (mid 3rd round)

I love Bills value approach in drafting, but you have to wonder with so many good 1st & 2nd year players - how many players from 2011 draft can stick to the 53 man roster? If can't move many picks into following year 2012 draft, this may be the year to do the Jets draft approach.

One thing is for certain, if Pats win it all and got pick 32 plus 33 from Carolina, no way Bill would keep both picks..

I know what your saying about the jets approach and get 1 or 2 key impact guys... but alot of people were saying that on this board last year also. You have to admit we traded down yet again this year but also still got key impact guys... all of our 1st 4 picks are basically starting McCourty, Spikes, Cunningham and Gronk (I count gronk because he plays starter snaps on a team with 3 TE's)

The jets approach is sexy if you can get a guy like revis but when you look at the results we got impact guys while trading down.

I agree though can we really have another 10 pick year and still expect all the rookies to stick?

 

[Off The Grid]

from the value chart:

pick 33: =580 points

same point value as both picks-
pick 50: 400 points (mid 2nd round)
pick 82: 180 points (mid 3rd round)

I love Bills value approach in drafting, but you have to wonder with so many good 1st & 2nd year players - how many players from 2011 draft can stick to the 53 man roster? If can't move many picks into following year 2012 draft, this may be the year to do the Jets draft approach.

One thing is for certain, if Pats win it all and got pick 32 plus 33 from Carolina, no way Bill would keep both picks...

I know what your saying about the jets approach and get 1 or 2 key impact guys... but alot of people were saying that on this board last year also. You have to admit we traded down yet again this year but also still got key impact guys... all of our 1st 4 picks are basically starting McCourty, Spikes, Cunningham and Gronk (I count gronk because he plays starter snaps on a team with 3 TE's)

The jets approach is sexy if you can get a guy like revis but when you look at the results we got impact guys while trading down.

I agree though can we really have another 10 pick year and still expect all the rookies to stick?

Very good question!!

And it's actually quite possible, for 2 reasons:

1 ~ Even on our Roster ~ which boasts AMAZING Depth of Talent ~ there's plenty of room for improvement in the bottom 20.

2 ~ There's a distinct possibility that rosters are going to expand again, to the 56-60 range.

This Dynasty has been forged by finding great prospects at Discount Prices...and then helping them unleash their hidden Greatness.

 

[PatsFanStnfrd]

Very good question!!

And it's actually quite possible, for 2 reasons:

1 ~ Even on our Roster ~ which boasts AMAZING Depth of Talent ~ there's plenty of room for improvement in the bottom 20.

2 ~ There's a distinct possibility that rosters are going to expand again, to the 56-60 range.

This Dynasty has been forged by finding great prospects at Discount Prices...and then helping them unleash their hidden Greatness.

Roster expansion is a given if we go to 18 game season + practice squads will be expanded. In any event, NE has room for better players........

 

[patsfaninpa]

Didn't really look at it that way. But, yeah it looks like we are better prepared than any team for an 18gm season. BB places a higher value on players 16-35 than any other GM in the league. Everyone wants the star. But, in the salary cap world. The star costs = 1 good player, one middle of the road guy, and maybe an aging vet like a G. Warren.

 

[patchick]

I know what your saying about the jets approach and get 1 or 2 key impact guys... but alot of people were saying that on this board last year also. You have to admit we traded down yet again this year but also still got key impact guys... all of our 1st 4 picks are basically starting McCourty, Spikes, Cunningham and Gronk (I count gronk because he plays starter snaps on a team with 3 TE's)

Actually, last year I remember everybody saying there was enormous depth of talent and not a heck of a lot of difference between the mid-1st and mid-2nd. The team also had a wide range of needs.

This year looks very different, both in terms of the talent available and the shape of the Patriots roster.

 

[SunnyDenmark]

Actually, last year I remember everybody saying there was enormous depth of talent and not a heck of a lot of difference between the mid-1st and mid-2nd. The team also had a wide range of needs.

This year looks very different, both in terms of the talent available and the shape of the Patriots roster.

Exactly. This years draft looks to me like a Jets approach would be best. I usually hate that 'win now' approach, but every once in a while you do have to go push all of your draft chips and go 'all in'. And this NEP club is only 2-3 impact players away from another multiple championship run. Brady has a limited shelf life left - not because of desire , but because of age and the limit of how many games over the course of a career a body can handle.

BB and TB are in the debate of the best QB / HC combo of all time. (Montana / Walsh). 1-2 more trophies would put that debate firmly in our favor. Time to use all those draft chips and go all in.

P.S. using the high draft picks doesnt have to mean going via the draft. ie. could also spend one of our many top 6 picks in first 3 rounds on a trade for established player. a la the Corey Dillion trade a few years ago for a 2nd round pick and /or the Welker trade for a 2nd & 7th pick.

 

[dryheat44]

Roster expansion is a given if we go to 18 game season + practice squads will be expanded. In any event, NE has room for better players........

It will, but not by much. Maybe 53 to 55 -tops. And possibly one or two more on the PS. While I'm sure Coach Belichick would like 60, it doesn't make sense for Kraft and other owners to fight so hard for an 18 game season and the 1 extra home gate that it entails, and then have to spend that extra income on a bunch of players on an expanded roster. The owners would be worse off than they claim to be now.

 

[patchick]

Exactly. This years draft looks to me like a Jets approach would be best. I usually hate that 'win now' approach, but every once in a while you do have to go push all of your draft chips and go 'all in'. And this NEP club is only 2-3 impact players away from another multiple championship run. Brady has a limited shelf life left - not because of desire , but because of age and the limit of how many games over the course of a career a body can handle.

I think we're coming to the same conclusion for very different reasons. For me it's not a "win now" issue, it's the fact that the roster is already full of youth, and at most positions depth, too. In that specific situation, one impact player is going to make a bigger difference than 3 solid contributors.

In particular, look at the defense that's signed for next year. Can you name a single position where there's a need for another useful role player? (Maybe NT, depending on Love's development.) But a genuine impact player who has to be game-planned against at positions like DE or OLB could make a big difference.

And as it happens, this looks like a draft with potential impact players who are good fits.

 

[SunnyDenmark]

I think we're coming to the same conclusion for very different reasons. For me it's not a "win now" issue, it's the fact that the roster is already full of youth, and at most positions depth, too. In that specific situation, one impact player is going to make a bigger difference than 3 solid contributors.

In particular, look at the defense that's signed for next year. Can you name a single position where there's a need for another useful role player? (Maybe NT, depending on Love's development.) But a genuine impact player who has to be game-planned against at positions like DE or OLB could make a big difference.

And as it happens, this looks like a draft with potential impact players who are good fits.

Yes, we are both bringing out different points to the same focus of doing whatever it takes in the draft to get a a few high impact players.

The depth is decent at most positions (excepting OLB and RB), and I am normally all for depth due to injuries, but there are only so many in game reps that can go around. And those ingame reps is what can develop a player to reach their potential - not sitting on the bench or getting a few garbage time reps. Evidenced by Matty Cassell to see how much he developed in 16 games vs. 3 years on the bench.

I would like to see NEP use those first 3 picks in the top 33 this year - and even use some later round picks as a supplement if we need to move up.

Interesting that any rookie pool would probably also be accompanied by less years in a rookie contract. NLPA is actually pushing for a 3 year max rookie contract - which would lessen the appeal of a first round pick vs 2nd round pick.

 

[Metaphors]

I think we're coming to the same conclusion for very different reasons. For me it's not a "win now" issue, it's the fact that the roster is already full of youth, and at most positions depth, too. In that specific situation, one impact player is going to make a bigger difference than 3 solid contributors.

In particular, look at the defense that's signed for next year. Can you name a single position where there's a need for another useful role player? (Maybe NT, depending on Love's development.) But a genuine impact player who has to be game-planned against at positions like DE or OLB could make a big difference.

And as it happens, this looks like a draft with potential impact players who are good fits.

Totally agree with the thinking and conclusion. The draft value and scheme need align with disruptive 3-4 ends and rush linebackers. The Pats need to exit day 1 with at least one of them. An ideal situation would be to get one of each. This would allow the Pats to rush 4 but the offense would realistically have to keep 6 in to block. That leaves the Pats with a 7-on-4 advantage in coverage...almost enough to double team everyone. The key is forcing that 6th blocker to stay back and not release into a pass route. You hit it on the head that this requires an "impact" player on the front 7 that demands to be "game-planned against".

That still leave 3 premium picks (I have this draft getting shallow after 70 picks or so) to get a DB and bolster the OL. The remaining picks can be used to move around, trade into 2012 or get some specific skills at RB and WR.

This plan maps well against the expected draft value...except for the OL. I'm hoping the Pats have another Vollmer in their pocket because I'm not a fan of the big uglies in this draft class.

 

[SunnyDenmark]

Totally agree with the thinking and conclusion. The draft value and scheme need align with disruptive 3-4 ends and rush linebackers. The Pats need to exit day 1 with at least one of them. An ideal situation would be to get one of each. This would allow the Pats to rush 4 but the offense would realistically have to keep 6 in to block. That leaves the Pats with a 7-on-4 advantage in coverage...almost enough to double team everyone. The key is forcing that 6th blocker to stay back and not release into a pass route. You hit it on the head that this requires an "impact" player on the front 7 that demands to be "game-planned against".

That still leave 3 premium picks (I have this draft getting shallow after 70 picks or so) to get a DB and bolster the OL. The remaining picks can be used to move around, trade into 2012 or get some specific skills at RB and WR.

This plan maps well against the expected draft value...except for the OL. I'm hoping the Pats have another Vollmer in their pocket because I'm not a fan of the big uglies in this draft class.

Sorry to hear that maybe this years draft - the 'big uglies' or as Brady calles them 'fat cows' - are possibly not have the skill set the Pats desire. As with Neal always hurt, Mankins possibly a goner, Light and especially Koppen soon at the end of their carreers, - Pats need at least one high round (2nd) pick on the oline this next draft. And if it just replaces Mankins if he leaves - then the line will be one year older and weaker. (I dont see any up and coming stud now - just some JAG's). And that is not good news to protect the Franchaise - who thankfully is now under long term contract again.

 

[fester]

It will, but not by much. Maybe 53 to 55 -tops. And possibly one or two more on the PS. While I'm sure Coach Belichick would like 60, it doesn't make sense for Kraft and other owners to fight so hard for an 18 game season and the 1 extra home gate that it entails, and then have to spend that extra income on a bunch of players on an expanded roster. The owners would be worse off than they claim to be now.

Disagree, the marginal revenue exceeds the marginal pay of another 3, 5 or 7 rookie contract guys or vet. min players. Let's take one additional game at Gillette --- 68,000 seats at an average ticket price of $115 --- assume a sell-out, and that produces marginal revenue of $7.8 million. 7 10 years in the league vet min guys with no signing bonus are paid $850,00 apiece, for total expanded salary costs of $6 million dollars. This excludes any additional parking, food or beer revenue. It also excludes any additional TV revenue.

This is a bit of an extreme analysis, as the Pats have the most expensive tickets, but I am also giving the Pats the most expensive JAGS for the example. More likely, the additional gate revenue produces five to six million for the owners while they shell out 2.5 to 3.5 million for the bottom of the roster.

 

[dryheat44]

Disagree, the marginal revenue exceeds the marginal pay of another 3, 5 or 7 rookie contract guys or vet. min players. Let's take one additional game at Gillette --- 68,000 seats at an average ticket price of $115 --- assume a sell-out, and that produces marginal revenue of $7.8 million. 7 10 years in the league vet min guys with no signing bonus are paid $850,00 apiece, for total expanded salary costs of $6 million dollars. This excludes any additional parking, food or beer revenue. It also excludes any additional TV revenue.

This is a bit of an extreme analysis, as the Pats have the most expensive tickets, but I am also giving the Pats the most expensive JAGS for the example. More likely, the additional gate revenue produces five to six million for the owners while they shell out 2.5 to 3.5 million for the bottom of the roster.

Do you think the owners are willing to lock out the players for another 1.5-three million post tax? Less than that when you include things like insurance premiums, retirement, equipment, and whatever other bennies the Union gets. Many owners don't even own the parking or concessions. Their might still be one or two that don't own their stadiums and have to split revenues. I don't think there's any way that the rosters top 55 players. Perhaps they'll throw the coaches a bone by taking the game day roster up to 50 or 51.

 

[Metaphors]

Sorry to hear that maybe this years draft - the 'big uglies' or as Brady calles them 'fat cows' - are possibly not have the skill set the Pats desire. As with Neal always hurt, Mankins possibly a goner, Light and especially Koppen soon at the end of their carreers, - Pats need at least one high round (2nd) pick on the oline this next draft. And if it just replaces Mankins if he leaves - then the line will be one year older and weaker. (I dont see any up and coming stud now - just some JAG's). And that is not good news to protect the Franchaise - who thankfully is now under long term contract again.

That is just my evaluation. There are a couple of players that I like, but my thinking is that due to a shallow talent pool, they will be overdrafted.

Before the 2009 draft, I didn't know Vollmer from a hole in the wall...so take my "expertise" with a serious grain of salt.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

That is just my evaluation. There are a couple of players that I like, but my thinking is that due to a shallow talent pool, they will be overdrafted.

Before the 2009 draft, I didn't know Vollmer from a hole in the wall...so take my "expertise" with a serious grain of salt.

Oddly enough, Mankins and Vollmer were both "overdrafted," at least as draftniks assess value. There's at least three kids in this draft whom I could make an argument for "overdrafting," I'll know more after the All-Star games. There's also a chance a couple juniors make an early move if they think (or are convinced) they can take advantage of a weak class.

Returning to the "impact" player argument ... I don't see BB making a significant move up for a player in the first two days. I don't know if Chad Jackson can be said to have cooled BB on moves like that or if he just couldn't find trade partners at the price in subsequent drafts, but I think he's pretty happy with how the "depth" approach to the last couple drafts has worked out. I expect him to do the same in this draft - especially as there are always clubs eager to make a splash and willing to trade picks for their savior.

 

[Off The Grid]

It will, but not by much. Maybe 53 to 55 -tops. And possibly one or two more on the PS. While I'm sure Coach Belichick would like 60, it doesn't make sense for Kraft and other owners to fight so hard for an 18 game season and the 1 extra home gate that it entails, and then have to spend that extra income on a bunch of players on an expanded roster. The owners would be worse off than they claim to be now.

Disagree, the marginal revenue exceeds the marginal pay of another 3, 5 or 7 rookie contract guys or vet. min players. Let's take one additional game at Gillette --- 68,000 seats at an average ticket price of $115 --- assume a sell-out, and that produces marginal revenue of $7.8 million. 7 10 years in the league vet min guys with no signing bonus are paid $850,00 apiece, for total expanded salary costs of $6 million dollars. This excludes any additional parking, food or beer revenue. It also excludes any additional TV revenue.

This is a bit of an extreme analysis, as the Pats have the most expensive tickets, but I am also giving the Pats the most expensive JAGS for the example. More likely, the additional gate revenue produces five to six million for the owners while they shell out 2.5 to 3.5 million for the bottom of the roster.

Excellent Argument, sir. Here's hoping you're right. I generally read "10%" bandied about, which would bring it to 58 Players.

And if rosters increased by the same percentage as the games do, that would bring it to exactly 60.

Also: Chances are pretty good that most of the extra spots will be filled out by late round Rookies, who obviously come much cheaper.

And, as you mention: The TV Revs should be HUGE.

Anyone know the history of Roster Expansion, over the years? I'd be very curious to know.