The Evolution of the "Belichick Defense"

[mayoclinic]

Yes, but there are, by definition, darn few elite players at any position, in any league. There are, however, good pass rushers around. The Patriots have chosen not to go after them in the draft. Last year, for example, 32 players had 8 sacks or more, and it was 31 the year before. That's an average of about 1 per team, right there. Now, you obviously won't get numbers like that every year but, as teams pass more, the numbers will be higher for sacks as well. I agree that scheme can really help hide problems, and we've seen BB doing that since at least 2008. I just think your argument is bootstrapping on a non-issue. There's never been enough "elite" to go around. There never will be. If there were dozens of "elite" lying about, they wouldn't be "elite".

As I've said, I don't think we disagree that much. But - at least speaking for myself - there's not much to talk about these days. The Pats have certainly passed up a ton of pass rushers who could have made a major difference, and didn't do enough to address that problem soon enough. Some of the DB picks have been unfortunate. You always need good enough players to play within a given scheme, and you always scheme a bit around the players you have. Exposing a CB on an island who can't handle it is disastrous (see: McCourty, Devin) but having a CB who can opens up a lot of things (see: Revis, Darrelle).

As I've said in Mo's aerial offense thread, there aren't that many things a defense can do to combat the current generation of offenses under the current rules:

1. Get pressure on the QB. More pressure and less time = more mistakes by the offense and less ability to find a mismatch.
2. Get more coverage guys. More coverage ability = more time needed to find a mismatch and less mismatches.
3. Create more confusion. Increasing the complexity that offenses have to deal with = more mistakes.

I can't think of a whole lot of other things defenses can do, regardless of how many many they have playing out of a 3 point stance. The less guys you need to get pressure on the QB (#1), or to effectively cover the available receiving options (#2), the more room a defense has to work with. But most defenses these days seem hard pressed to achieve the first 2 without resorting to some component of #3:

When asked earlier this season how he would describe the current trend in modern defenses, New Orleans Saints coach Sean Payton summed it up in one word: “confusion.”

Attacking “Psycho” fronts and other blitz heavy defensive looks | Smart Football

Whether that's new or just a re-cycling of what prior generations had to do is largely an academic issue.

 

[Deus Irae]

As I've said, I don't think we disagree that much. But - at least speaking for myself - there's not much to talk about these days.

I hear you, and I'm sorry if my position puts a damper on your notion and the thread. It's not that I don't think you (and those cited) could be right as much as I think it's way too early to know what's going on because there's so much in flux.

The Pats have certainly passed up a ton of pass rushers who could have made a major difference, and didn't do enough to address that problem soon enough. Some of the DB picks have been unfortunate. You always need good enough players to play within a given scheme, and you always scheme a bit around the players you have. Exposing a CB on an island who can't handle it is disastrous (see: McCourty, Devin) but having a CB who can opens up a lot of things (see: Revis, Darrelle).

I'd love to have BB sit down and give a list of "my bad on that selection over....." guys, even though it will never happen.

As I've said in Mo's aerial offense thread, there aren't that many things a defense can do to combat the current generation of offenses under the current rules:

1. Get pressure on the QB. More pressure and less time = more mistakes by the offense and less ability to find a mismatch.
2. Get more coverage guys. More coverage ability = more time needed to find a mismatch and less mismatches.
3. Create more confusion. Increasing the complexity that offenses have to deal with = more mistakes.

I'd add something in that I think has really been overlooked by people talking about the league, and that is the need for much better safety play. Brandon Meriweather was good enough to be a 2 time Pro Bowler, yet people here wanted him gone for years. Chung is looked at as a great hope, despite the reality that he's been nothing but mediocre so far. I think BB really misses the impact of a guy like Harrison. Imagine what he'd be doing with this defense if an Eric Berry level safety was back there.

I can't think of a whole lot of other things defenses can do, regardless of how many many they have playing out of a 3 point stance. The less guys you need to get pressure on the QB (#1), or to effectively cover the available receiving options (#2), the more room a defense has to work with. But most defenses these days seem hard pressed to achieve the first 2 without resorting to some component of #3:



Attacking “Psycho” fronts and other blitz heavy defensive looks | Smart Football

Whether that's new or just a re-cycling of what prior generations had to do is largely an academic issue.

I'm really going to be following KC's defense this year. Even with Berry coming off the ACL injury, that's a squad that should be solid at every level (if Poe works out as a rookie), and has enough depth/backup tier talent that new wrinkles could be coming from that team. The two DEs have seemingly become stalwarts against the run, which should (again, if Poe can get it done as a rookie) allow us to see a lot of pass defense out of that squad, so Romeo should have a lot of opportunities to show us some new/variant stuff.

 

[mayoclinic]

I hear you, and I'm sorry if my position puts a damper on your notion and the thread. It's not that I don't think you (and those cited) could be right as much as I think it's way too early to know what's going on because there's so much in flux.

Not at all. I appreciate the constructive dialog, and have no real argument with your points. It's fun to push the discussion a little. I make no claims to have clairvoyance about what BB will do, or enough knowledge to come up with any answers myself. It's more that I'm interested in defensive strategy and eager to see what BB and other creative minds might unveil.

I'd love to have BB sit down and give a list of "my bad on that selection over....." guys, even though it will never happen.

A lot of us would pay for that. On the pass rusher front guys like Justin Tuck (2005), LaMarr Woodley (2007), Cliff Avril (2008) and Connor Barwin (2009) come to mind. All guys that the Pats looked at and who many people felt were good fits, all guys who were available, all guys the Pats passed on. Taking Kevin O'Connell when Red Bryant was on the board in 2008. Lots of others. We'll never know how it actually went down.

I'd add something in that I think has really been overlooked by people talking about the league, and that is the need for much better safety play. Brandon Meriweather was good enough to be a 2 time Pro Bowler, yet people here wanted him gone for years. Chung is looked at as a great hope, despite the reality that he's been nothing but mediocre so far. I think BB really misses the impact of a guy like Harrison. Imagine what he'd be doing with this defense if an Eric Berry level safety was back there.

Safety is clearly becoming a key position in the NFL, just as TE is becoming key on offense. The ideal safety has to be not far off a CB in many respects, and part LB in others. Not an easy job, and clearly one of the harder roles to fill. I was one of the few people in 2010 who predicted that the Pats would go DB in the 1st round. But my hope was that Earl Thomas would somehow slip to 22. Thomas and Berry have been the best safeties to come into the league in a long time. The Pats have struggled with the position since Rodney was on his last legs. Dom Capers, Josh Boyer and Matt Patricia have all tried their hand at getting better play out of the unit. Hopefully last year was the nadir for the Pats on that front. I'm cautiously optimistic that things will be somewhat better this year, if for no other reason that it's hard (and scary) to imagine them being worse.

 

[captain stone]

More good stuff from ESPN's Kevin Seifert on how defenses must evolve to combat the modern aerial passing offense:



Counters to NFL passing games? Elusive - NFC North Blog - ESPN

BB has passed on LBs with coverage skills such as Sean Lee (2010) and Lavonte David (2012) in favor of bigger, more physical LBs like Brandon Spikes and Dont'a Hightower. I hope that doesn't come back to haunt us.

As I was reading the last 2 paragraphs of the quoted text, I was thinking to myself: Lavonte David.
And sure enough...

Sean Lee is another great example, too. Although less physically talented & instinctive than Lee,
AJ Edds is somebody who I felt could've provided some help in the coverage LB department.
It was his open-field tackle of (IIRC) Ryan Matthews in the 4th qtr v. SD that prevented a 1st down;
the very next play, Mike Tolbert fumbled inside the Pats' 40 to help preserve the Week 2 win.
Edds was waived 4 days later, signed to the PS, then signed by the Indy Clots. Bill eventually
replaced him with...Niko Koutouvides, who can't cover an NFL RB if his life depended on it.
I hope that Carpenter can give us this year what I ass-umed Edds was going to give us last year.

 

[mayoclinic]

As I was reading the last 2 paragraphs of the quoted text, I was thinking to myself: Lavonte David.
And sure enough...

There's a reason I (and others) were so high on Lavonte David. If you want to run a traditoinal 3-4 then he's not a great fit. But if you believe in the directions discussed in this thread, then a guy like David becomes exceptionally valuable. Hightower's a fine player, but he doesn't have David's movement skills, range, or coverage ability. I hope BB has read the tea leaves correctly.

Sean Lee is another great example, too.

While I think Brandon Spikes is a fine player, I think that Lee is an exceptional field general, coverage LB, and 3-down player. I loved him in 2010, and he's done nothing to make me feel otherwise since then.

Although less physically talented & instinctive than Lee, AJ Edds is somebody who I felt could've provided some help in the coverage LB department.
It was his open-field tackle of (IIRC) Ryan Matthews in the 4th qtr v. SD that prevented a 1st down; the very next play, Mike Tolbert fumbled inside the Pats' 40 to help preserve the Week 2 win.
Edds was waived 4 days later, signed to the PS, then signed by the Indy Clots. Bill eventually replaced him with...Niko Koutouvides, who can't cover an NFL RB if his life depended on it.

I hope that Carpenter can give us this year what I ass-umed Edds was going to give us last year.

I was very excited by the Edds pick-up last year, and disappointed when the Pats let him go. I had hoped that Edds and Jeff Tarpinian would give the Pats more versatility in the coverage area. Edds didn't exactly set the world on fire for the Colts last year after the Pats cut him, but I would have preferred keeping him to Koutouvides.

I do wonder whether Jeff Tarpinian could make the roster over a guy like Josh Barrett as a hyrbid S/LB type. Barrett has more straight line speed but Tarpinian has more explosion and lateral mobility. Both are great STers. Barrett's inability to stay healthy is obviusly a major concern.

 

[everlong]

There's a reason I (and others) were so high on Lavonte David. If you want to run a traditoinal 3-4 then he's not a great fit. But if you believe in the directions discussed in this thread, then a guy like David becomes exceptionally valuable. Hightower's a fine player, but he doesn't have David's movement skills, range, or coverage ability. I hope BB has read the tea leaves correctly.

Hightower
6' 3" 265
40: 4.68
VJ: 32
3C: 7.55
20YS: 4.64
BJ: 9'9"

David:
6'0" 233
40: 4.65
VJ: 36.5
3C: 7.28
20YS: 4.22
BJ: 9'11"

David's numbers are only marginally better and when you consider the size and scheme flexibility of Hightower coupled with the fact that he already knows and can lead the defense I'd take Hightower every time over David.

Now that said I don't think the two players really enter the same conversation.

With Hightower you're getting a guy who can play any LB spot be it a 3-4 or a 4-3 and play DE in a 4-3 if needed. I'm not saying he would star in all those roles but in a pinch he gives you the ability to be better VORP +. He's better in space than many give him credit for and understands zone concepts and will attack once he has his read correct. I think Mayo for instance knows where he's supposed to be but he's not instinctive about it. Something we've talked about in other threads. I think Hightower can stay on the field in almost any sub-package.

With David you're getting a 4-3 type of LB who in a BB scheme is going to play all the sub-packages as a hybrid ILB/SS type. He allows you to play more of a base flavored sub package as discussed earlier where first and second down you're not getting beat by match up substitutions.

Honestly both could play in this defense at the same time. I get why you like David but you're selling Hightower way short. I would not be shocked if he's the DROY depending on what some of the other high picks do. If a guy like Ingram or McCellin get a dozen sacks nothing you can do about that.

 

[mayoclinic]

Hightower
6' 3" 265
40: 4.68
VJ: 32
3C: 7.55
20YS: 4.64
BJ: 9'9"

David:
6'0" 233
40: 4.65
VJ: 36.5
3C: 7.28
20YS: 4.22
BJ: 9'11"

David's numbers are only marginally better and when you consider the size and scheme flexibility of Hightower coupled with the fact that he already knows and can lead the defense I'd take Hightower every time over David.

Now that said I don't think the two players really enter the same conversation.

With Hightower you're getting a guy who can play any LB spot be it a 3-4 or a 4-3 and play DE in a 4-3 if needed. I'm not saying he would star in all those roles but in a pinch he gives you the ability to be better VORP +. He's better in space than many give him credit for and understands zone concepts and will attack once he has his read correct. I think Mayo for instance knows where he's supposed to be but he's not instinctive about it. Something we've talked about in other threads. I think Hightower can stay on the field in almost any sub-package.

With David you're getting a 4-3 type of LB who in a BB scheme is going to play all the sub-packages as a hybrid ILB/SS type. He allows you to play more of a base flavored sub package as discussed earlier where first and second down you're not getting beat by match up substitutions.

Honestly both could play in this defense at the same time. I get why you like David but you're selling Hightower way short. I would not be shocked if he's the DROY depending on what some of the other high picks do. If a guy like Ingram or McCellin get a dozen sacks nothing you can do about that.

The numbers don't reflect how the 2 guys play. I'm not selling Hightower short - he's a fine player, and I hope he's a huge success for us. But he's not a coverage LB who can function as an extra DB but still pack a punch up front. I hope you're right about Hightower having the range to stay on the field in all sub-packages, but I agree that there would have been room for both guys.

 

[everlong]

The numbers don't reflect how the 2 guys play. I'm not selling Hightower short - he's a fine player, and I hope he's a huge success for us. But he's not a coverage LB who can function as an extra DB but still pack a punch up front. I hope you're right about Hightower having the range to stay on the field in all sub-packages, but I agree that there would have been room for both guys.

I think we're into the semantics debate zone here. You're saying Hightower isn't a coverage LB is my saying David is a hybrid SS/ILB. David also isn't going to line up at SILB one down and stuff the back in the A-Gap and then the next down line up outside and either set the edge, rush the passer or drop into coverage. It's comparing Mike Vrabel and Don Davis. Not that David couldn't be a more talented a versatile version.

I agree the combine numbers don't tell the tale as for how they play. They were just frame of reference. They also don't tell you on tape that Hightower is nearly always moving in the right direction making his game speed even better.

 

[captain stone]

I do wonder whether Jeff Tarpinian could make the roster over a guy like Josh Barrett as a hyrbid S/LB type. Barrett has more straight line speed but Tarpinian has more explosion and lateral mobility. Both are great STers. Barrett's inability to stay healthy is obviusly a major concern.

That, and his appearance at times last season (what little there was of it) of being allergic to contact.

If Tarp wins the battle of open-field tackling (on defense & STs) v. Barrett, then he has my vote.

 

[mayoclinic]

Here's a nice read on defensive theory in general, with a few paragraphs on the "Belichick hyrbid":

There's no simple diagram or playbook quirk that defines Belichick's scheme. Rather, it's the complete lack of one. Belichick, in a very short span of time early in his career, was introduced to many different defensive schemes at the professional level. Belichick was exposed to Maxie Baughan, who ran George Allen's complex 4-3 scheme that was full of pre-snap adjustments. He briefly coached with Fritz Shurmur, who would follow Allen (and others) who used a lot of nickel schemes as a base defense. He worked with Joe Collier, who turned a troublesome set of injuries to his front seven into Denver's vaunted Orange Crush - maybe the original multiple-front scheme. All of that before gaining fame and respect under Bill Parcells and the true 3-4 in New England and New York.

The key to the success of Belichick's style of play is flexibility of personnel. To be able to effectively switch from a 4-3 to a 3-4 to a dime defense and all points in-between requires versatility at nearly every position. Players have to be able to run and cover and hit. Linemen have to be strong enough to hold the point in the 3-4, but get upfield in a 4-3. Defensive backs have to be very good in zone coverage but competent in man coverage when needed. It requires a special skill set, but also an above-average football IQ. Compared to the base Dungy-Kiffin scheme, which likely started with as little as three or four fronts and a couple of zone coverages, Belichick's hybrid is a maze meant to confuse and confound.

Another important difference in Belichick's defense is philosophical rather than playbook. Most coordinators identify the weaknesses of an upcoming opponent and gameplan to take advantage. Belichick specifically seeks to take away the strength of an offense, forcing them to operate out of their comfort zone. In a league where you may face a power offense one week and a spread offense the next, the versatility of the multiple front playbook is the only way to pull off such a philosophy.

Three paragraphs and nary a playbook diagram may not seem like we're shorting one of the most successful playbooks of all time. But consider that nearly everything we've discussed and will discuss before we're through just scratches the surface of Belichick's playbook. In reality, there's not a revolutionary innovation to highlight. It's the versatility and philosophy and depth in gameplanning and having the players to execute that vision that makes the scheme work.

The Ultimate Guide to NFL Defense

The whole article is well worth reading, but that's a nice summary in a short amount of space. And it's consistent with the view that the defense is "evolving" towards a more hybrid approach mixing multiple fronts, pre- (and post-) snap adjustments, nickel coverage the majority of the time, and requiring versatile, intelligent defenders. BB has pretty much explicitly said that he expects to employ both 3- and 4-man fronts, and that he expects to be in nickel or more the majority of the time. But the description is also consistent with Deus' argument that none of this is terribly new - as the article notes, these are ideas that shaped BB's defensive philosophy and development decades ago.

 

[centro11]

Just saw that Part 5: "the rebirth oft he 4-3" came out:

The Belichick Defense Part 5: The rebirth of the 4-3 | 60 Max Power O - The Strategist's Guide to New England Patriots Football

C

 

[PP2]

Just saw that Part 5: "the rebirth oft he 4-3" came out:

The Belichick Defense Part 5: The rebirth of the 4-3 | 60 Max Power O - The Strategist's Guide to New England Patriots Football

C

Very informative.

 

[BananaRepublican]

or did they? A years worth of rust is tough to shake.......

Absolutely. His arm strength isn't back yet either.

He's still a dangerous MFer though. I guess Damaryus Thomas could be hot. They will run the ball well. The offense won't make too many mistakes. It's going to be an interesting team to watch.