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The Economic Growth Mirage

Discussion in 'Political Discussion' started by PatriotsReign, Aug 28, 2008.

  1. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign On the Roster

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    I just read an article on CNN that says 2nd quarter GDP to be released Thursday may show 2.7% growth. People may say "wow!" but don't get excited. The average family of 4 received $1,800 stimulis checks and it looks like they all spent it. Any economic activity that results from these checks is really just a temporary mirage.

    "But many economists say temporary factors, such as the more than $90 billion in economic stimulus checks that reached taxpayers during the quarter, make the jump in the second quarter an anomaly.

    "Mostly what this report will say is, when you give somebody an $1,800 check, he spends it," said Wyss, referring to the tax rebate received by many families."


    http://money.cnn.com/2008/08/27/news/economy/economy_outlook/index.htm?postversion=2008082718
    Last edited: Aug 28, 2008
  2. PatriotsReign

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    Come on "We're not in a recession folks" people. I'm waiting for your comments.

    for those who still believe we are not "officially" in a recession, you're wrong. The only ones that still believe that are part of the Bush administration. If you care to differ, I will show you in 6-12 months when all the adjustments are made to GDP and we see what most already know.
  3. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    What are you looking for ? Your ass to be kissed and be told you are right ? Obviously the stimulus checks made a difference although the suggestion that everyone spent the whole thing is false. But that's beside the point. You're talking about a recession and whether it only appears we avoided one because of the stimulus. Well that was the whole point of the stimulus - to avoid a recession. Admittedly we bought/borrowed our way out, if it turns out we avoided it. But you are confusing "GDP growth" with "the reason for GDP growth". The economy was on a downturn and to avoid a total fall they did the stimulus. While I am not in favor of borrowing more money, as of now they were successfull if the GDP growth continues. GDP growth is GDP growth regardless of how we get there; we are trying to fix the economic problem first - then, hopefully, we can worry about the additional debt.

    Think of it as you not being able to make your house payment so you borrow from friends or family for a couple of months. You have created a new issue down the road but for now you can make your house payment which you couldn't before.
  4. Patters

    Patters Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I think it's obvious we're in a recession. It used to be that when I drove to NYC, I wouldn't even think about the price of gas; now I budget it; food prices have gone way up, even staples, which surely must affect lower and middle income families. The price of home heating oil is over $4, which is about $1.50 more than I paid last year. That is going to hurt the poor and elderly terribly. Two real estate brokers I know have gotten second jobs; a plumber and electrician I know talk about how much copper pipes and wire have skyrocketed; and a 21-year-old I know, a neighbor's son, has had a hell of time landing anything other than a minimum wage job. The anecdotal evidence certainly supports the idea we're in a recession, and the worrying thing is that with the massive deficit spending that Republicans have embraced, the oil crisis, and the foreclosure crisis, it's hard to see why things won't get significantly worse before they get better.
    Last edited: Aug 28, 2008
  5. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    Came in at 3.3%. But it's all the economic stimulus, I'm sure :rolleyes: - but, again, even if it is that just means the stimulus did it's job as a band aid.
  6. jack

    jack Rookie

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    http://www.cnbc.com/id/22988841
    With the economy teetering on the brink of a recession, Bush said the deficit would reach $410 billion for the budget year 2008 that ends on Sept. 30 and $407 billion for fiscal 2009 that begins on Oct. 1.


    The budget makes military spending and the Iraq war its centerpiece, proposing a 7.5 percent increase for the Pentagon to $515 billion. On top of that Bush also sought $70 billion more for the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan.
    Last edited: Aug 28, 2008
  7. patsfan13

    patsfan13 Hall of Fame Poster PatsFans.com Supporter

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  8. PatriotsReign

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    The whole issue is we should NOT be trying to avoid a recession if that's what we need. The positive benefits of balance, stabilty, confidence and growth that follow a recession can not be achieved by creating another bubble. I would think someone as smart as you would get that by now BF.

    Bubbles are horrible, they are lies and they create illusions of prosperity for the average American. And when they are over, it is the average American who is hurt the most.

    Do you actually support creating bubbles to avoid recession BF? If so, why?
  9. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign On the Roster

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    If you think this means we're not in a recession and the economy is not in grave condition, you don't know as much as I thought you did BF.

    Stocks are struggling
    The financial sector is in ruins
    US auto makers are on the verge of bankruptcy
    Unemployment is beginning to soar
    The world economy is falling quickly
    The real estate market is in a coma
    Consumer spending is free falling

    And here you're rolling your eyes. Seriously BF, that's kind of ridiculous. You're like a kid whistling in the dark as you walk by the cemetary pretending you're not afraid.
  10. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign On the Roster

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    Energy prices are not the main source of our current problem. I just listed some of the big issues and I didn't even list energy as one of them.

    I'll say it one more time..."BUBBLES ARE THE PROBLEM" and 99% of all the other problems can be sourced to bubbles. We've pumped steroids into the economy for years now. And it all started, as Belichik Fan pointed out, with the tax reform act of 1987. Then the Tech bubble of the 90's followed by the real estate/consumer spending bubble of 2000-2006. There are no more bubbles to create.

    The only good form of a healthy economy is a natural boom totally unaided by government (stupid) policy. Capitalism is not supposed to be manipulated by pumping money that doesn't exist into it...by lowering interest rates and qualifying standards to all-time lows. But go ahead, tell yourselves that kind of government policy is ok.
  11. PatriotsReign

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  12. Real World

    Real World Moderator Staff Member

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    Why are some people in here so distraught over the great news about 2nd qtr GDP?

    So does this mean the Super Depression is postponed for at least another 3 months? Damn.

    Hey, did someone say we're in a recession right now? [​IMG]
  13. PatriotsReign

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    If you don't believe we're in a recession, you don't know much about economics. I guarantee you that one year from now, this will OFFICIALLY be declared a recession. Not only is it a recession, but conditions are as bad as they have ever been since the late 70's/early 80's and still getting worse.

    Economic stimulis checks result in increased GDP but do not add to national prosperity, so who has benefitted? All I can say is we better effin not send out another round of stimulis checks this fall.

    Here's what FOX NEWS says today;

    "When asked whether this is a bad time to find a quality job, 65% said it was, matching the level of the 2001 recession, according to the survey by Rutgers University's John J. Heldrich Center for Workforce Development.

    With unemployment at 5.7%, the highest level since 2004, and weekly unemployment claims hitting a six-year high earlier this month, workers are worried about everything from their weekly hours to their total pay.

    About one-third of respondents say the amount they owe on credit cards exceeds their retirement savings; another 3% say their credit card debt would cancel out their retirement account, according to the random survey of 1,000 people, 587 of whom are in the labor force."


    http://www.foxbusiness.com/story/markets/economy/survey-shows-workers-confidence-tumbles/

    I don't need to remind you this is one of the most conservative news sources in the nation.
    Last edited: Aug 28, 2008
  14. PatsFanInEaglesLand

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    #37 Jersey

    Yeah the bean counter, at a business who had $720 million in sales, said so, so it has to be true,:rolleyes:
  15. Real World

    Real World Moderator Staff Member

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    If no one cared, then why are you all using the term so much? It wouldn't be because a negative attitude is better for the challenging party, in an election cycle, is it? Nah...
  16. PatriotsReign

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    Bean counter? Is that supposed to upset me? Stick around a while PFiEL and you'll become a believer. Only time will tell. Although I do in fact work as an economic forecaster for my company, I will admit no one knows for sure what will happen in the coming months. All I can do is paint a picture on the economic landscape and tell you it aint pretty.

    What landscape are you looking at. Why don't you share some of YOUR economic expertise with us. I'm sure we'd all like to read it. don't be shy buddy, you must have a WEALTH of knowledge your just bursting to share.:rolleyes:
  17. Real World

    Real World Moderator Staff Member

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    Wheered you whent to skool, cuz I never sawd you theer? :rolleyes:
  18. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign On the Roster

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    You have not once shared any in-depth analysis of why you believe the economy is going in a positive direction. You just spout a random opinion based upon nothing but news clips and what you WANT to believe.

    the only one I've seen share some understanding and insight is Belichik Fan & Shmessy.
    Last edited: Aug 28, 2008
  19. Real World

    Real World Moderator Staff Member

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    Why would he, or any of us, want to share our economic views with you, when we don't know **** about it anyway? Afterall, you know it all, so we'll just sit here & read from the Messiah of Economics. I'm guessing that since you're such an Einstien on the subject, that you're posting from your private jet, while on your way to that island nation you own. :rolleyes: Please tell us what we should all do with our money. Please tell us what is going to happen in the next 1-3 years so we can plan accordingly, and profit. C'mon, help us 'po folk out will ya!
  20. PatsFanInEaglesLand

    PatsFanInEaglesLand Rookie

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    #37 Jersey

    I am not a "Finacial Guy" at all, but I know 2 basic principals that, you don't seem to believe.

    1. More money in the consumers hand, and less in the government coffers, is always good for the economy.

    2. Taxing the **** out of employers is not good for the economy, because it reduces employment.

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