The Early Mock (1/29/07)

[drpatriot]

Here's another edition of The Early Mock. I'm curious about what people think about the first Patriots pick. It's a little atypical, to say the least

1 Oakland: JaMarcus Russell, QB, LSU: The trendy pick here is Calvin Johnson, but I can’t possibly see the Raiders selecting a non-quarterback and Russell is the best fit for the Raiders.

2 Detroit: Joe Thomas, OT, Wisconsin: The Lions need an offensive tackle who can get the job done, and this is their man.

3 Tampa Bay: Calvin Johnson, WR, Georgia Tech: Oh darn, the Buccaneers got stuck with this lazy, terrible receiver. Too bad for them.

4 Cleveland: Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma: The Browns need a running game and Peterson is one of the best runningbacks in the draft.

5 Arizona: Gaines Adams, DE, Clemson: Adams is the best defensive end prospect in this draft, and the Cardinals sure could use a pass rush.

6 Washington: Alan Branch, DT, Michigan: The Redskins need a better pass rush, and Branch is most likely the answer here.

7 Minnesota: Leon Hall, CB, Michigan: Hall is the elite cornerback of this year’s draft and there are reports linking the Vikings to Hall.

8 Houston: LaRon Landry, S, LSU: This early? With Peterson already drafted by the Browns, the Texans choose to improve their secondary with this elite prospect from LSU.

9 Miami: Jamaal Anderson, DE, Arkansas: Who the heck is Anderson? He came out of nowhere, and now he’s projected Top 10. What is going on?

10 Atlanta: Reggie Nelson, S, Florida: Though many would expect a WR here, the Falcons realize that they need a secondary more than they need another first-round wide receiver.

11 San Francisco: Dwayne Jarrett, WR, USC: The 49ers were hoping that Jarrett would fall, as they need dire help in their receiving corps.

12 Buffalo: Darrelle Revis, CB, Pittsburgh: Even if Nate Clements doesn’t leave, the Bills could use an upgrade at cornerback.

13 St. Louis: Quentin Moses, DE, Georgia: The Rams need a defensive end. In fact, they need two defensive ends.

14 Carolina: Patrick Willis, LB, Ole Miss: The Panthers have holes at linebacker and Willis could be the best player to fill them.

15 Pittsburgh: Levi Brown, OT, Penn State: The Steelers need help on the offensive line and Brown can provide this help.

16 Green Bay: Marshawn Lynch, RB, California: Despite recent allegations that Lynch was involved in some sort of harassment scandal, Lynch will be drafted by the Packers anyway. Easy move.

17 Jacksonville: Paul Pozluszny, OLB, Penn State: The Nittany Lions graduate this tough prospect to help improve the already stellar Jaguars defense.

18 Cincinnati: Amobi Okoye, DT, Louisville: Okoye somehow made it to Cincinnati without being drafted. Another easy selection.

19 Tennessee: Ted Ginn, WR, Ohio State: Another player who slips through the cracks makes another first-round team very happy.

20 New York Giants: Daymeion Hughes, CB, California: The cornerback with fantastic hands is a little bit of a reach, but the Giants think that it will pay off in the long run.

21 Denver: LaMarr Woodley, DE, Michigan: The Broncos are left with no strong possibilities at their biggest need, cornerback, so leave instead with a great defensive end prospect.

22 Dallas: Justin Blalock, OG, Texas: The Texans need a guard, and Blalock can fill the hole. Easily.

23 Kansas City: Sidney Rice, WR, South Carolina: I have already expressed my negative feelings about Sidney Rice, so I will spare you all this time. At least it fills a need.

24 New England (from Seattle): Lawrence Timmons, OLB, Florida State: This pick may seem atypical, but the Patriots are impressed by Timmons’ strong work ethic and believe that he could actually end up playing inside linebacker for their team.

25 New York Jets: Jarvis Moss, OLB, Florida: Moss, on the other hand, is a more typical 3-4 linebacker prospect and exactly the type of player that the Jets have been looking for on their defense.

26 Philadelphia: Dwayne Bowe, WR, LSU: Say what? The Eagles become impressed by Bowe’s physical attributes and big-time stats and draft him to replace the departing Donte Stallworth.

27 New Orleans: Marcus McCauley, CB, Fresno State: The Saints need better players at cornerback, but don’t need an immediate starter, so they groom McCauley as their next shutdown corner.

28 New England: Michael Griffin, S, Texas: The Patriots need a safety, whether free or strong, and Griffin could adapt to play either position.

29 Baltimore: Michael Bush, RB, Louisville: Bush rumbles his way into the first round as the Ravens decide they need another bruising RB to become what Jamal Lewis used to be.

30 San Diego: Buster Davis, ILB, Florida State: Davis will bring youth to the Chargers middle linebackers. On a side note, I think this is the first time I haven’t projected the Chargers to draft a wide receiver. Hmmm.

31 Indianapolis: DeMarcus Tyler, DT, North Carolina State: Tyler is a house and should give the Colts some semblance of a run defense.

32 Chicago: Greg Olsen, TE, Miami: Though Zach Miller is the more complete TE prospect, Olsen provides more of a home run threat and should be perceived as the #1 TE at this point in time.

 

[Real World]

I'd like them to go with Marcus McCauley if he's there. We really need a corner, so I'd franchise Samuel and have this kid nickel it for a year, then take over in 2008.

 

[PonyExpress]

Thoughts:

1) Oversight or Intentional? No Brady Quinn in rd 1...
2) Q. Moses at #13...I don't see any chance of Q. Moses going that high to a 4-3 team. His lack of playing strength at DE was obvious at the Senior Bowl. If he impresses in Lb drills at the combine, maybe a 3-4 team will be enticed to grab him in rd 1, but I am beginning to doubt it.
3) Leon Hall at #7... Like last year, the top Dbs in the draft seem to be safeties, not cbs. I could see both Landry and Nelson going in the top 10, and even Merriweather in the top 20 if he can sweet talk his way through the combine interviews; but Hall doesn't seem to have the elite athleticism that would entice a team to take him that high...
4) Lynch at #16... with this latest domestic assault accusation, even if it is cleared up, I could see Lynch slipping. The Bengals issues may factor into some the war-room decision making this year. Lynch already is a bit of a weirdo with some durability problems, and rbs have a tendency to slip on draft day anyway.
5) I would be surprised if Posluszny went as high as #17, and I'm beginning to doubt he'll go in the 1st rd. He does not have elite measurables (size, speed, change of direction), has a narrow base indicating he probably can't get much bigger while maintaining quickness, does not strike with violence like a Willis, is not exceptional in pass coverage, and has already had some durability issues. I expect him to take a draft day tumble which will surprise some, but really shouldn't. There's no shame in being a 1st day pick at LB.
6) Woodley at #21... Woodley did not impress at the senior bowl, vs. OSU or USC. He pulled out of the senior bowl with a minor injury after getting dominated by Levi Brown in one on ones. I happen to like Woodley and believe he will be a solid 4-3 end, but he did not build the kind of momentum for an "intangibles" kind of guy at the end of the season that would suggest a mid first rd draft pick... maybe mid 2nd.
7) I don't believe any of the players you have from 27-32 will be in the 1st rd come draft day. McCauley has the raw talent but is suffering from a crisis in confidence and a sub-par senior season. A 1st rd pick could be a major risk. Griffin has tackling issues, which is a major flaw in a safety prospect, and may indicate a toughness issue. Bush is coming off a broken leg, Davis is a questionable 3-4 ILB prospect due to size issues, especially with a Siler and Harris still available with better measurables and similar production; Tyler was handled pretty easily at the senior bowl, and Olsen isn't the caliber of previous Miami TEs, despite receiving alot of attention due to their legacy. Zach Miller seems like a pretty sure bet to go ahead of him...

As far as the Pats picks...

Timmons is a junior with limited playing experience and a reserved personality. He is 6'3'' and 235 lbs, and while excellent in coverage, is not the kind to take on blocks and plug the middle. He would be a major project pick and risk for a 3-4 team in the 1st rd. First he would have to mature, gain playing experience, put on 10-15 pounds, and become a leader, something he didn't have to do playing next to Buster Davis. That process could realistically take 2 years, and you wouldn't have an impact player until the 3rd year. Is that what we are looking for? Fans are already tearing apart Chad JAckson,a 2nd rd junior, for his growing pains. That kind of criticism can make a talented young player go into a shell and never come out. Timmons would be a safer pick for a 4-3 team as a will OLB where he could impact pretty soon, running around and not confined by a complex scheme.

Griffin. While he is very solid in coverage, he is not overly big and suffered some neck stingers this year which have made him at times reluctant to stick his nose in to help in run support. Also, he has a tendency to overrun and take bad angles in run support. Instincts in supporting the run, tackling skills, and toughness seem absolutely crucial for a safety. I soured on Griffin a bit after watching the senior bowl, despite his obvious coverage skills. Maybe he would make a better CB than FS. He is definitely not a SS.

 

[skaIownsIyou]

yeah quinn wont fall out of the top 10 let alone the 1st round....team like st. louis, miami, detroit, and carolina would take quinn, i could even see houston taking quinn given the oppurtunity

when the "best player available" outweighs the "position of need" then they'll take the best player, in this case quinn

 

[drpatriot]

Thoughts:

1) Oversight or Intentional? No Brady Quinn in rd 1...Completely intentional. Quinn could pull an Aaron Rodgers-like fall through the 1st if no team picks him in the Top 5.
2) Q. Moses at #13...I don't see any chance of Q. Moses going that high to a 4-3 team. His lack of playing strength at DE was obvious at the Senior Bowl. If he impresses in Lb drills at the combine, maybe a 3-4 team will be enticed to grab him in rd 1, but I am beginning to doubt it.I'm a big fan of Moses, so his stock with me hasn't lowered quite yet. If he continues to perform poorly, he will drop.
3) Leon Hall at #7... Like last year, the top Dbs in the draft seem to be safeties, not cbs. I could see both Landry and Nelson going in the top 10, and even Merriweather in the top 20 if he can sweet talk his way through the combine interviews; but Hall doesn't seem to have the elite athleticism that would entice a team to take him that high...Hall is a fantastic corner on all dimensions and without question is the #1 cornerback in the draft. I think the right team could draft him if they look at college production, not athleticism. This team may or may not be Minnesota.
4) Lynch at #16... with this latest domestic assault accusation, even if it is cleared up, I could see Lynch slipping. The Bengals issues may factor into some the war-room decision making this year. Lynch already is a bit of a weirdo with some durability problems, and rbs have a tendency to slip on draft day anyway. He could fall further if more is made about the domestic assault. However, he currently seems poised for a mid-1st round entry, and the Packers would be making a bad move if they decided not to snap him up at #16.
5) I would be surprised if Posluszny went as high as #17, and I'm beginning to doubt he'll go in the 1st rd. He does not have elite measurables (size, speed, change of direction), has a narrow base indicating he probably can't get much bigger while maintaining quickness, does not strike with violence like a Willis, is not exceptional in pass coverage, and has already had some durability issues. I expect him to take a draft day tumble which will surprise some, but really shouldn't. There's no shame in being a 1st day pick at LB. Fair enough
6) Woodley at #21... Woodley did not impress at the senior bowl, vs. OSU or USC. He pulled out of the senior bowl with a minor injury after getting dominated by Levi Brown in one on ones. I happen to like Woodley and believe he will be a solid 4-3 end, but he did not build the kind of momentum for an "intangibles" kind of guy at the end of the season that would suggest a mid first rd draft pick... maybe mid 2nd. Again, this is a player I really like, but I think that in future drafts he would only make a 1st-round appearance with a 3-4 defense as a linebacker.
7) I don't believe any of the players you have from 27-32 will be in the 1st rd come draft day. McCauley has the raw talent but is suffering from a crisis in confidence and a sub-par senior season. A 1st rd pick could be a major risk. Griffin has tackling issues, which is a major flaw in a safety prospect, and may indicate a toughness issue. Bush is coming off a broken leg, Davis is a questionable 3-4 ILB prospect due to size issues, especially with a Siler and Harris still available with better measurables and similar production; Tyler was handled pretty easily at the senior bowl, and Olsen isn't the caliber of previous Miami TEs, despite receiving alot of attention due to their legacy. Zach Miller seems like a pretty sure bet to go ahead of him...I noticed this trend also. McCauley is falling in comparison to other drafts, as is Tyler. Bush's stock, on the other hand, is on the rise, but his fate will rest in the combine. Davis and Olsen could go either way on this one, in my opinion.

As far as the Pats picks...

Timmons is a junior with limited playing experience and a reserved personality. He is 6'3'' and 235 lbs, and while excellent in coverage, is not the kind to take on blocks and plug the middle. He would be a major project pick and risk for a 3-4 team in the 1st rd. First he would have to mature, gain playing experience, put on 10-15 pounds, and become a leader, something he didn't have to do playing next to Buster Davis. That process could realistically take 2 years, and you wouldn't have an impact player until the 3rd year. Is that what we are looking for? Fans are already tearing apart Chad JAckson,a 2nd rd junior, for his growing pains. That kind of criticism can make a talented young player go into a shell and never come out. Timmons would be a safer pick for a 4-3 team as a will OLB where he could impact pretty soon, running around and not confined by a complex scheme.You're probably right about this one. Timmons seems to be a better Cover 2 prospect in the mode of Lance Briggs than a 3-4 linebacker.

Griffin. While he is very solid in coverage, he is not overly big and suffered some neck stingers this year which have made him at times reluctant to stick his nose in to help in run support. Also, he has a tendency to overrun and take bad angles in run support. Instincts in supporting the run, tackling skills, and toughness seem absolutely crucial for a safety. I soured on Griffin a bit after watching the senior bowl, despite his obvious coverage skills. Maybe he would make a better CB than FS. He is definitely not a SS. I see all four secondary positions as a need, and if Griffin can play any of them to some satisfaction, I would be happy. That said, recent whisperings about bad tackling do concern me.

Thanks for the extremely insightful comments. :rocker:

 

[Seymour93]

) Oversight or Intentional? No Brady Quinn in rd 1...Completely intentional. Quinn could pull an Aaron Rodgers-like fall through the 1st if no team picks him in the Top 5.

At the Senior Bowl, Carolina scouts were seen speaking with Quinn, so he wouldn't fall past them at #14... but he's going in the Top 5 anyways.

 

[carolinatony]

Here's a mock from vipsports.com that i like. Willis is ever available

24) New England: Marcus McCauley, CB, Fresno State

25) NY Jets: Quentin Moses, DE / OLB, Georgia

6) Philadelphia: Patrick Willis, ILB, Mississippi

27) New Orleans, Chris Houston, CB, Arkansas

28) New England: Anthony Spencer, DE / OLB, Purdue

 

[spacecrime]

1) Oversight or Intentional? No Brady Quinn in rd 1...Completely intentional. Quinn could pull an Aaron Rodgers-like fall through the 1st if no team picks him in the Top 5.

Not credible to me. What is it that you find wrong with him that teams will go after fringe players and ignore what could be their franchise QB?

Quinn isn't likely to get past the first five, and even if he did, there are other teams that need a QB this year or are looking at a new QB in a year or two. Even Rogers didn't fall all the way to the first round, because top QBs are hard to find.

Similar issues with other picks but still, as an exercise in alternative draft-think, it was a cool mock over-all. Two points for thinking outside the box.

 

[DaBruinz]

I'd like them to go with Marcus McCauley if he's there. We really need a corner, so I'd franchise Samuel and have this kid nickel it for a year, then take over in 2008.

McCauley has been plummetting. If he's a 2nd round pick, I'll be surprised. Also, McCauley was reported to be horrible at the Senior Bowl Practices.

 

[Seneschal2]

Have to say, very much appreciate your efforts with these mocks -- thanks!

Now on to business...

Don't like the Timmons pick. Trying to get BB to draft a LB on day one is difficult -- but an undersized one in the first may be reaching. Plus, I don't think he fits. JMO.

The Griffin pick I could live with -- but he's not my preference at Safety.

In addition, I really don't like any of the prospects from #21 down for the Pats (except for Griffin). What's missing are some potential Pats prospects that ought to be listed in your first round. So in trying to apply some logic I'd say:

#24 would come from your top 20:

1 Oakland: JaMarcus Russell, QB, LSU: The trendy pick here is Calvin Johnson, but I can’t possibly see the Raiders selecting a non-quarterback and Russell is the best fit for the Raiders.

2 Detroit: Joe Thomas, OT, Wisconsin: The Lions need an offensive tackle who can get the job done, and this is their man.

3 Tampa Bay: Calvin Johnson, WR, Georgia Tech: Oh darn, the Buccaneers got stuck with this lazy, terrible receiver. Too bad for them.

4 Cleveland: Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma: The Browns need a running game and Peterson is one of the best runningbacks in the draft.

5 Arizona: Gaines Adams, DE, Clemson: Adams is the best defensive end prospect in this draft, and the Cardinals sure could use a pass rush.

6 Washington: Alan Branch, DT, Michigan: The Redskins need a better pass rush, and Branch is most likely the answer here.

7 Minnesota: Leon Hall, CB, Michigan: Hall is the elite cornerback of this year’s draft and there are reports linking the Vikings to Hall.

8 Houston: LaRon Landry, S, LSU: This early? With Peterson already drafted by the Browns, the Texans choose to improve their secondary with this elite prospect from LSU.

9 Miami: Jamaal Anderson, DE, Arkansas: Who the heck is Anderson? He came out of nowhere, and now he’s projected Top 10. What is going on?

10 Atlanta: Reggie Nelson, S, Florida: Though many would expect a WR here, the Falcons realize that they need a secondary more than they need another first-round wide receiver.

11 San Francisco: Dwayne Jarrett, WR, USC: The 49ers were hoping that Jarrett would fall, as they need dire help in their receiving corps.

12 Buffalo: Darrelle Revis, CB, Pittsburgh: Even if Nate Clements doesn’t leave, the Bills could use an upgrade at cornerback.

13 St. Louis: Quentin Moses, DE, Georgia: The Rams need a defensive end. In fact, they need two defensive ends.

14 Carolina: Patrick Willis, LB, Ole Miss: The Panthers have holes at linebacker and Willis could be the best player to fill them.

15 Pittsburgh: Levi Brown, OT, Penn State: The Steelers need help on the offensive line and Brown can provide this help.

16 Green Bay: Marshawn Lynch, RB, California: Despite recent allegations that Lynch was involved in some sort of harassment scandal, Lynch will be drafted by the Packers anyway. Easy move.

17 Jacksonville: Paul Pozluszny, OLB, Penn State: The Nittany Lions graduate this tough prospect to help improve the already stellar Jaguars defense.

18 Cincinnati: Amobi Okoye, DT, Louisville: Okoye somehow made it to Cincinnati without being drafted. Another easy selection.

19 Tennessee: Ted Ginn, WR, Ohio State: Another player who slips through the cracks makes another first-round team very happy.

20 New York Giants: Daymeion Hughes, CB, California: The cornerback with fantastic hands is a little bit of a reach, but the Giants think that it will pay off in the long run.

#28 would come from those not listed:

 

[Ochmed Jones]

If I was a Raider fan, I would be on the phone with Atlanta every single day trying to find out what it would take to get Vick in the house.
Vick's game is perfect for the Raiders and let's face it Mickey has worn out his welcome in Atlanta. He needs to be moved.
Atlanta has Schaub who can play right away while they wait for either Quinn or Russell to develop.

MCCauley is going to run a sub 4.45 and when he does, scouts will suddenly decide that his senior year was an abberation and he really is the player most thought he was earlier in the season and he will be the second CB taken in April.

If there is a low draft choice or FA that I see as making a smooth transition from CB to FS, it's Talley of Duke. Duke's MVP for 2005 and 2006. He had shoulder surgery after his junior year and that affected him at the beginning of the season. If he runs at legit 4.5 forty, then he would be worth a 2nd day pick.

 

[skaIownsIyou]

vick will be entering his 7(?) season as a qb in the nfl....trading him to the raiders wouldnt be a great thing for oakland at all....be very nice for atlanta though....

vick has had a lot of coaching changes and he's had to adapt to a lot of different systems...that' why he hasnt bloomed into a premier qb yet...if he finally settled down with a coach, give him 3 or 4 years under the same system, for him to develop, he'll be around 30-32....giving him about 4 more years tops to make some history...and given the way he's always running, his career can be a lot shorter than projected...

having a vick would raise spirits on the offense...not too long ago when randy moss was getting trade talks, he really wanted to go to the falcons but was inevitably traded to the raiders....but what would be smarter? sell tickets now? or restore your franchise back to the glory that once was...

al davis is old, but he's not stupid....and he loves what he sees in russell