The defense is not that bad

[patfanken]

The New England Patriots pass defense was ranked 31st last season not 32nd.

NFL Football Stats - NFL Team Opponent Passing Yards per Game on TeamRankings.com

2011 NFL Season - Opponent Passing Yards per Game

Green Bay - 301.2 yards/game; New England - 282.9 yards/game

2012 NFL Season - Opponent Passing Yards per Game

Green Bay - 243.6 yards/game; New England - 285.3 yards/game

Yes at the end of the season, but up to the last weekend of the year, when GB gave up over 400 passing yds to the Lions, the Pats were ranked 32nd.

I know they ended up 31st, but as of the 10th week of the season (where we are now) we were last and I mentioned this in my post.

 

[ATippett56]

I know they ended up 31st, but as of the 10th week of the season (where we are now) we were last and I mentioned this in my post.

It's an indictment how poor the New England Patriots pass defense finished last season when the New England Patriots defense faced the following quarterbacks in the last eight games of the season:

Mark Sanchez
Tyler Palko
Vince Young
Dan Orlovsky
Rex Grossman
Tim Tebow
Matt Moore
Ryan Fitzpatrick

 

[signbabybrady]

No, it can't be said too. Again, turnovers, particularly fumble recoveries, are basically random.

Turnovers are in no shape or form random. very few turnovers are not caused. Occasionally a player might drop the ball like when Holmes got hurt and let it go or more commonly a muffed punt but almost all other turnovers are caused.


Are you going to honestly sit there and say that Spike's forced fumbles were just a random fluke and not caused by the fact that he is a brick wall with legs. And even recovering fumbles is not as random as one might try to argue yes the ball can take funny bounces but generally a good team that swarms to the ball will recover more than their fair share.


But really all of that is mute because random or not, lucky or not they are still stops and by throwing them out of the argument you are needlessly skewing things. This defense is below average and if you throw out one of the few things they statistically do well then they will look even further below average.

 

[Deus Irae]

Turnovers are in no shape or form random. very few turnovers are not caused. Occasionally a player might drop the ball like when Holmes got hurt and let it go or more commonly a muffed punt but almost all other turnovers are caused.

Are you going to honestly sit there and say that Spike's forced fumbles were just a random fluke and not caused by the fact that he is a brick wall with legs. And even recovering fumbles is not as random as one might try to argue yes the ball can take funny bounces but generally a good team that swarms to the ball will recover more than their fair share.


But really all of that is mute because random or not, lucky or not they are still stops and by throwing them out of the argument you are needlessly skewing things. This defense is below average and if you throw out one of the few things they statistically do well then they will look even further below average.

Ok, you're willfully misunderstanding a point that everyone who follows football knows, so there's no point in continuing this.

 

[ivanvamp]

Turnovers are in no shape or form random. very few turnovers are not caused. Occasionally a player might drop the ball like when Holmes got hurt and let it go or more commonly a muffed punt but almost all other turnovers are caused.


Are you going to honestly sit there and say that Spike's forced fumbles were just a random fluke and not caused by the fact that he is a brick wall with legs. And even recovering fumbles is not as random as one might try to argue yes the ball can take funny bounces but generally a good team that swarms to the ball will recover more than their fair share.


But really all of that is mute because random or not, lucky or not they are still stops and by throwing them out of the argument you are needlessly skewing things. This defense is below average and if you throw out one of the few things they statistically do well then they will look even further below average.

Fumble recoveries are mostly random. Interceptions and forced fumbles largely are not

 

[signbabybrady]

Fumble recoveries are mostly random. Interceptions and forced fumbles largely are not

I do not agree with this. A ball that has been fumbled can take many random bounces some may wind up unfavorable but there is still skill envolved in recovering fumbles and it is not just luck. For the record we have recovered way more of our forced fumbles than have been retained if it was just completely random it would be 50/50.

 

[signbabybrady]

Ok, you're willfully misunderstanding a point that everyone who follows football knows, so there's no point in continuing this.

And what point am I willfully misunderstanding that if you ignore the one or two decent things a defense actually does good than it is worse than it really is?

What do you think the Bears record would actually be if you took turnovers away from them?

I think it is just the opposite you are willfully ignoring what is universally known to be one of things that corelates most to winning, turnovers.

 

[ATippett56]

I do not agree with this. A ball that has been fumbled can take many random bounces some may wind up unfavorable but there is still skill envolved in recovering fumbles and it is not just luck. For the record we have recovered way more of our forced fumbles than have been retained if it was just completely random it would be 50/50.

How many fumbles did the New England Patriots defense force in the Super Bowl against the New York Giants?

How many fumbles did the New England Patriots defense recover in the Super Bowl against the New York Giants?

 

[Deus Irae]

And what point am I willfully misunderstanding that if you ignore the one or two decent things a defense actually does good than it is worse than it really is?

What do you think the Bears record would actually be if you took turnovers away from them?

I think it is just the opposite you are willfully ignoring what is universally known to be one of things that corelates most to winning, turnovers.

I'm not willfully ignoring anything. As I've noted, multiple times, the Patriots have not won the turnover battle in the playoffs since 2007. You can't rely on turnovers. This is widely known.

Ivanamp has a post on fumble recoveries in another thread:

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/10/965835-did-you-know-pats-d-has-more-fumble-recoveries-than-bears.html#post3237870

Note the disparity in the following top, well-coached, teams as they go year to year. In just a 3 year span (2009-2011), each team has a difference of 10 or more turnovers in high to low...

New Orleans Saints turnovers caused in a 3 year stretch under Greg Williams:

39
25
19

Same D.C.
Same philosophy and schemes
Wildly different numbers

Patriots turnovers caused, from 2009-2011
28
38
34

Giants
31
39
24

Steelers
15
25
22

As I said, if you want to keep your head in the sand, you go for it. I prefer not to take such an approach.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

I must be watching different Patriots games this year. I wouldn't even think of arguing that this defense isn't that bad. It's horrible.

I agree that, if they didn't force turnovers, this defense would be even worse. Without the turnovers, the defense would stink to historical, if not biblical, levels of awful. :rocker:

I also agree that the run defense has been pretty good. Unfortunately, even badly coached opponents generally figure out by halftime that they should just throw the ball.

I cringe when the opponent gets a holding penalty because 3rd & 15 or 3rd & 20 are such favorable down and distance combos against the Pats defense. I'd almost rather see them in 3rd & 3, where they might consider actually trying to run the ball instead of throw it to a wide open receiver.

I don't think the team has really met a solid RB yet that they stopped,CJ was not playing well in the first half of the season so he may be an exception.

Ray Rice and Spiller pretty much had their way with them and McGahee was doing well until he blew the game for the Donkeys

The REAL test of how good the run defense is,will be in back to back games when Arian Foster,Ben Tate and Frank Gore visit the Razor.

The secondary we all know couldn't stop a college team from scoring,but the run defense will be tested again real soon.

 

[jnug]

As you can probably tell from my earlier posts I have a bad feeling about teams they might face that really do have a solid run attack as the Pats already keep as many run stoppers on the field as much as they can for as long as they can.

 

[ivanvamp]

I do not agree with this. A ball that has been fumbled can take many random bounces some may wind up unfavorable but there is still skill envolved in recovering fumbles and it is not just luck. For the record we have recovered way more of our forced fumbles than have been retained if it was just completely random it would be 50/50.

I've posted this many times recently but here we go again - look at the last 3 games between the Giants and the Patriots.

2007 - SB
NE forces 2 NYG fumbles, but the Giants recover both
NYG force 1 NE fumble, and the Giants recover it

2011 - Regular season
NE forces 2 NYG fumbles, and each team recovers one
NYG force 2 NE fumbles, and the Giants recover both

2011 - SB
NE forces 2 NYG fumbles, but the Giants recover both
NYG force 0 NE fumbles

So over these three games, the Patriots forced 6 Giant fumbles, but only recovered 1 of them. Meanwhile, the Giants only forced 3 Patriot fumbles, but recovered all 3.

So of the 9 total fumbles in those 3 games, the Giants only caused 3 (33.3%) of them, but they recovered 8 (88.9%) of them.

Let's also look at it this way, using the 2011 season as a whole.

The Giants forced 28 fumbles and recovered 16 of them (57.1%). During the regular season, the Giants forced 21 fumbles and recovered 11 of them (52.3%). But during the playoffs, the Giants forced 7 fumbles and recovered 5 of them (71.4%).

The Patriots forced 26 fumbles and recovered 12 of them (46.1%). During the regular season, the Patriots forced 21 fumbles and recovered 11 of them (52.3%). But during the playoffs, the Patriots forced 5 fumbles and recovered only 1 of them (20.0%).

So during the regular season last year the Pats and Giants (amazingly) forced the exact same number of fumbles (21) and recovered the exact same number (11). But during the playoffs, the Giants forced 7 fumbles and recovered 5 (while recovering all 3 of their own lost fumbles) while the Patriots forced 5 fumbles and only recovered 1 (while recovering only 1 of their 3 lost fumbles).

It's not like the Giants suddenly stepped up their fumble-recovery ability. Both teams went to the Super Bowl and worked incredibly hard, scrapping and clawing their way in every game. But the ball bounced for the Giants on more fumbles, plain and simple.

EDIT: To put it another way, look at this play (the Nicks fumble in the Super Bowl).
http://thesportsswami.blogspot.com/2012/03/nicks-fumble.html

There are *SIX* Patriots around the ball, and *ZERO* Giants, besides Nicks, in the picture. And do you know what happened on the play? The ball popped out backward and bounced right to a Giant player who was trailing the play about 7-8 yards away, completely out of the picture. That ball could have bounced anywhere, but it just happened to bounce in the one place where a Giant was standing. Credit the Giant player for hustling, but the ball literally bounced *RIGHT* to him. All six Patriot players were hustling too, but the ball didn't bounce toward any of them.

The same thing happened when Bradshaw fumbled after the interception on the deep ball to Gronk. He fumbled at the Giant 10 and it bounced right to a Giant player following the play. Incredible.

 

[Joey007]

Some thoughts on the defense here-

What I will say about this defense is, there still is some hope for the secondary. Last season at this point Bill had to literally pull guys off the street. (Ihedigbo, Moulden, Nate Jones anyone??) This season while the secondary's playing only slightly above how they played last year, there's alot more depth. There's guys who can play better than how they're playing right now. There's more talent, rookies who can still develop as the season goes on. Last year there was pretty much no hope except shooting into the FA crapshoot. This year there's talent, just some inexperienced players, and players who are underperforming (okay, there are a few guys who just suck).

Oh yeah, and don't forget we just got Aquib Talib.

As for the front seven, I'm still not too concerned. All they need to do is get a little more consistent pass-rush, and they're good.

Sure, all those missed tackles were ugly, but that hasn't been an issue all season long. We can assume for now that it isn't an issue.

 

[IllegalContact]

LOL.....the defense sucks

We run a fast pace no huddle offense which = lest rest time for are defense.
We score a ton of points which = opponents need to throw the ball more.
We force teams to play from behind which = opponents take more chances and attempt more big plays.

Despite all of that are defense still goes out and stops the run and forces turnovers.

We have Jones, Hightower, Dennard and Wilson as rookies playing key roles.

Lets stop acting like the sky is falling. The NFL is competitive top to bottom and I don't know any team that completely shuts down passing games in this day and age.

 

[Froob]

Well then, I'd hate to see what a bad defense looks like

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Got a nice laugh out of the thread title. Thanks for that

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Just read the OP/explanation and the laughter continues.

Playing from behind and forced to being more one dimensional is an advantage for offenses now? Okay

 

[SacPete1]

My only concern from last game was the rush defense and poor tackling. Two things that have not been characteristic of the defense this year.
The pass defense is never going to be good this year. BB won't play much man for fear of the big play. It will continue to be a bend but don't break strategy.
Play good against the run, put the oppponent in 3rd and 5 or more and try to get off the field.
These close games can be good however. Builds toughness and familiarity. Good qualities to have come playoff time.

 

[coolguy]

Watching patriot games is like watching the pro bowl now.

The defense made mark sanchez look like peyton manning.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

No the D is awesome...top 5 in the NFL