The defense is not that bad

[ThatllMoveTheChains!!!]

I saw it. Who cared what gut wrenching feeling you(original poster) got. The D caused the turnover and won the game. Oh and by the way if you have been paying attention the D has shown it can cause the turnover late in key moments several times this year off the top of my head another one that comes to mind is the fumble Spikes caused vs Zona that Ghost missed the kick to blow that one.

This made me think about how the Pats' D is performing with the game on the line this season. So far they're 3-2 with coming up with a play to give the Pats a chance to win/seal the game (4-2 if you want to include Denver):

FF vs Cards
fail vs Ravens
FF vs Broncos
fail vs Hawks
FF vs Jets (They also stuffed them after the kickoff fumble)
INT vs Bills

This is an improvement over last season where they were just 2-2 to finish the season and 3-3 if you include POs. This also puts them in the same realm as most defenses considered good/clutch. The only true outlier is the Texans who've come up big on defense two out of two times they had a chance.

 

[ATippett56]

The proof of the pudding is the record 6-3, which says we win 2/3 of our games.

You completely ignored the poster's statistical research.

 

[signbabybrady]

If you're a Patriots fan, you should.

No sorry my being a Patriots fan is not determined by how neat they get the job done. It is not determined by every element of the team being perfect at all moments and I certainly will not ignore great plays like turnovers and individual efforts that cause the other team to commit penalties when I asses the abilty of the team.

Neat, dirty, ugly whatever so long as you get the job done. There are no style points given.

 

[ThatllMoveTheChains!!!]

FWIW, some thoughts from Bill Parcells:

Report: Parcells thinks Belichick will make adjustments

Parcells says he actually likes this year's team -- despite its flaws -- better than the one that went to the Super Bowl last season.

Gotta say I agree. They're more balanced on offense and can attack more of the field. They're stouter against the run, stronger up front, and the secondary should be better on defense.

 

[hwc]

Am I the only one who sees the irony in your 'proof' that the defense stinks is that they stopped the final drive of the game but you were worried and had no confidence?

They didn't "stop" the final drive until Buffalo had marched immediately down the length of the field and was in the red zone making attempts to throw the winning TD completion.

Basically, the only way the Pats defense can stop a drive are:

a) a turnover
b) mistakes by the opponent (dropped balls, penalties, etc.)

The Pats got a turnover Sunday, for which all of us are thankful.

 

[Deus Irae]

No sorry my being a Patriots fan is not determined by how neat they get the job done. It is not determined by every element of the team being perfect at all moments and I certainly will not ignore great plays like turnovers and individual efforts that cause the other team to commit penalties when I asses the abilty of the team.

Neat, dirty, ugly whatever so long as you get the job done. There are no style points given.

Turnovers, particularly fumble recoveries, are semi-random and can leave at any time. You can't count on them, particularly when you start playing better teams in the playoffs. Given the Patriots games against the Giants in the last two Super Bowl appearances, you should know this. So, if you want to stick your head in the sand about the team not being able to make traditional stops, you go right ahead. As for me, I'll look at things that are significant and important, like the ability to get an opponent off the field by making actual stops and forcing punts.

And style points have nothing to do with it. The Patriots haven't won the turnover battle in a playoff game since the 2007 Jacksonville game.

 

[signbabybrady]

This made me think about how the Pats' D is performing with the game on the line this season. So far they're 3-2 with coming up with a play to give the Pats a chance to win/seal the game (4-2 if you want to include Denver):

FF vs Cards
fail vs Ravens
FF vs Broncos
fail vs Hawks
FF vs Jets (They also stuffed them after the kickoff fumble)
INT vs Bills

This is an improvement over last season where they were just 2-2 to finish the season and 3-3 if you include POs. This also puts them in the same realm as most defenses considered good/clutch. The only true outlier is the Texans who've come up big on defense two out of two times they had a chance.

Excellent analysis. Just curious why would you even consider excluding the Denver game? That was Ninkos strip sack on Denvers last drive right?


OK so the complete package Great run defense, Average pass rush, below average to well below average secondary, Well above average at turning the ball over, and it is clutch. Add it all up and the OP is absolutely correct this defense is not that bad. No one will mistake it for a great defense but it is way better than most anyone wants to give credit for.

 

[Banjo]

They are not clutch in the SLIGHTEST. There is nothing more terrifying than the other team needing a touchdown to win at the end of the game... because you know they have a chance, no matter WHO it is!

 

[ATippett56]

As was pointed out by another post, the entire starting secondary doesn't possess 5 years of experience between them.

Do you blatantly try to mislead the facts:

New England Patriots defensive secondary starters versus the Buffalo Bills

Steven Gregory - seventh season
Kyle Arrington - fourth season
Devin McCourty - third season
Alfonzo Dennard - first season

7 + 4 + 3 + 1 = 16

 

[ralmat55]

The proof of the pudding is the record 6-3, which says we win 2/3 of our games.

Winning 2 out of three games in the playoffs will not win a championship.

That's what this discussion is all about. How can this pass defense be improved enough to get the patriots back to the Super bowl and win it this time. Time is running out on the Brady/Belichick Golden Era of Patriot football. It would be a shame if any more opportunities to win a championship were left on the table.

 

[signbabybrady]

Turnovers, particularly fumble recoveries, are semi-random and can leave at any time. You can't count on them, particularly when you start playing better teams in the playoffs. Given the Patriots games against the Giants in the last two Super Bowl appearances, you should know this. So, if you want to stick your head in the sand about the team not being able to make traditional stops, you go right ahead. As for me, I'll look at things that are significant and important, like the ability to get an opponent off the field by making actual stops and forcing punts.

And style points have nothing to do with it.

I think it goes without saying that better teams will turn the ball over less but you know what else is true, better teams will go 3 and out less and better teams will march the length of the field more often.

 

[ThatllMoveTheChains!!!]

Excellent analysis. Just curious why would you even consider excluding the Denver game? That was Ninkos strip sack on Denvers last drive right?


OK so the complete package Great run defense, Average pass rush, below average to well below average secondary, Well above average at turning the ball over, and it is clutch. Add it all up and the OP is absolutely correct this defense is not that bad. No one will mistake it for a great defense but it is way better than most anyone wants to give credit for.

Primarily because the Pats were up by two scores, so I just figured I'd present all the facts. It was a FF of McGahee by Ninko at the Pats' 11 with 3:42 remaining. I think most would agree that it was a clutch, game sealing play; but it does start to near the gray area.

 

[Deus Irae]

I think it goes without saying that better teams will turn the ball over less but you know what else is true, better teams will go 3 and out less and better teams will march the length of the field more often.

That's why it's important that they be able to stop drives without turnovers. Like I said, if you want to keep your head in the sand, you go for it.

 

[signbabybrady]

That's why it's important that they be able to stop drives without turnovers. Like I said, if you want to keep your head in the sand, you go for it.

I think you are completely missing my point.

This is basically what you are assesing.

Good teams will turn the ball over less so it is more important to be able to cause punts/3 and outs and the like.

but ignoring that the opposite could be said too.

Good teams show the ability to sustain long drives and punt less and go 3 and out less so it is more important to be able to turn the ball over.

----

I would like to add that in the last 2 Super Bowls which unit do you think preformed more like its regular season version the offense or the defense?
Thats right in the last 2 SuperBowls it has been the offense that has under preformed based on its regular season performances. So this idea that in order to get over the SuperBowl hunt we need to come up with some magic formula on defense that has us all the sudden being the 85 Bears is lame. As a whole this team needs to continue to improve but IMO there is more than enough talent on both sides to get it done and the formulas they have been using to get them to the superbowls can and will work in the Super Bowl if both sides of the ball would play up to their abilities as they were proven throughout the season.

 

[ATippett56]

I think you are completely missing my point.

NFL Football Stats - NFL Team Opponent Third Down Conversion Percentage on TeamRankings.com

The New England Patriots defense is currently ranked 31st in opponent third down conversion percentage.

 

[Kontradiction]

It's really not that hard. Ideally, we would want the best defense possible. The best defense possible turns the ball over AND stops opponents with regularity on third down. This defense does one of those very well. Like the 2010 team, if it doesn't do the thing that it does very well in a playoff game, the opposing offense is going to have it's way and most likely win the game if they have a decent defense of their own. Bringing in Talib should help, but the defense will still have trouble with possession receivers and tight ends due to the fact that the current crew of LB's we have struggle a bit in coverage coupled with the fact that our safety crew is struggling at the moment as well.

 

[ATippett56]

Thats right in the last 2 SuperBowls it has been the offense that has under preformed based on its regular season performances. As a whole this team needs to continue to improve but IMO there is more than enough talent on both sides to get it done and the formulas they have been using to get them to the superbowls can and will work in the Super Bowl if both sides of the ball would play up to their abilities as they were proven throughout the season.

That's not entirely true in the last Super Bowl since the New England Patriots defensive performance was not particularly impressive:

396 Net Yards Allowed
0 Turnovers
45.5% Opponent Third Down Conversion
37:05 Opponent Time of Possession
103.8 Opponent Quarterback Rating

New York Giants vs. New England Patriots - Box Score - February 05, 2012 - ESPN

 

[signbabybrady]

NFL Football Stats - NFL Team Opponent Third Down Conversion Percentage on TeamRankings.com

The New England Patriots defense is currently ranked 31st in opponent third down conversion percentage.

Whats your point? Deus and I had already well established our starting points for our argument and your pointing this out after the fact really served no purpose as I already knew this to be what Deus was referencing. But I will play along and point out my position which I think Deus already understoof as well.

The England Patriots defense is currently ranked 3rd in takeaways per game at 2.6 per game.
NFL Football Stats - NFL Team Takeaways per Game on TeamRankings.com

Lets assume 1 of 2.6 came on 3rd down that means that per game there is still an average of one and half drives that are stopped before they even get to 3rd down. add those numbers to your 3rd down percentage and see where we are at. (granted you would need to adjust similarly for all teams.

 

[mgteich]

REALITY
We're 31st in getting off the field on 3rd down.
Our pass defense is among the very worst in almost all categories.

ANALYSIS - FRONT SEVEN
They had a poor game on Sunday. However, they are solid against the run. They have also been able to apply pressure when the game plan calls for pressure,

ANALYSIS - SAFETY
Last year, we had Ihedigbo and a revolving group of street free agents at safety (plus Chung when he was healthy). We now have McCourty, Gregory, Wilson (plus Chung when he is healthy). This is a MAJOR IMPROVEMENT.

ANALYSIS - CORNER
We started Dennard and Arrington, probably the worst set of corners among playoff teams. Cole has played very well at nickel back in the least couple of games. We have no #4 CB. Wilson is our dime back at the moment. Talib has been brought in and will improve this group, even if he is an average nfl starter. Note that if Wilson improves and/or Chung is back, we COULD move McCourty back to corner, if the current situation at corner doesn't improve. Also, we could add a free agent or Practice Squad player to upgrade Williams as our #10 defensive back.

BOTTOM LINE
There is reason for hope. As Parcells indicates, adjustments will be made as the season progresses. There is reason to believe that our rookies will improve. Currently, we have have one of the worst 3rd down defenses in the nil and one of the worst pass defenses in the nil. Those two ratings didn't keep us from the Super Bowl last year. We could be much better by the playoffs, or not. But, in any case, this is a playoff team. And, as we now, all teams start the playoffs 0-0; all have a chance at glory.

 

[signbabybrady]

That's not entirely true in the last Super Bowl since the New England Patriots defensive performance was not particularly impressive:

396 Net Yards Allowed
0 Turnovers
45.5% Opponent Third Down Conversion
37:05 Opponent Time of Possession
103.8 Opponent Quarterback Rating

New York Giants vs. New England Patriots - Box Score - February 05, 2012 - ESPN

Points my man points actually scoring is what wins and loses you games. and bottom line is the offense did not score its usual amount in either of the last two Super Bowls. On the flip side our defenses actually performed at or even slightly above their regular outputs. Could we still have won those games despite lower scoring than norm from our offense? Sure but that would require our D performed better than it had proven out during those seasons.

Look I am not trying to say this defense is unstoppable or anything but I am saying that pointing to its weakest part the secondary and pointing out how many 3rd downs it lets the other team have ignores that they take the ball away at ridiculous rates and ignores the fact that they regularly allow less points than the offense scores which is really the key to winning. I say that kind of sarcastically but its all in how you chose to look at it if you want to compare it to how other teams win like the Bears for example but ignore that their D needs to consistantly perform that way as their O puts more stress on them than our O does then it looks like we have no chance at a Super Bowl. But if you want to frame the discussion as what do we need to do as a D to make sure we allow less than our O can score then forcing long sustained drives that up the chances for turnovers and mistakes starts to come more clear.

The philisophy isnt really all that different than it was during the 3 out of four years. Bend dont Break strategy only difference is we score a heck of lot more now than we did then so we can bend further then before.