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The defense can't sustain these stats all season long.....can they?

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by PATRIOTSFANINPA, Sep 27, 2011.

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  1. PATRIOTSFANINPA

    PATRIOTSFANINPA Rookie

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    #12 Jersey

    I just read that the Pats currently are giving up 468.9 YPG on defense that is currently 32nd in the NFL and if that rate of yardage allowed would continue until the end of the regular season,it would amount to approximately an astronomical 7,532 overall yardage allowed by a defense which would destroy the 1981 Baltimore Colts NFL record of most yardage allowed in one season of 6,732.

    The 0-16 Detroit Lions defense of 2008 had less yardage allowed per game in their first 3 games than our defense thus far.

    Scary stats that I assume will improve as the year goes on,they can't be any more rock bottom than that.....I hope
    Last edited: Sep 27, 2011
  2. nashvillepatsfan

    nashvillepatsfan Rookie

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    Re: The defense can't stay this bad all season long.....can they?

    and any second now, posters will start telling you how yardage doesnt matter. wait for it :bricks:
  3. PATRIOTSFANINPA

    PATRIOTSFANINPA Rookie

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    Re: The defense can't stay this bad all season long.....can they?

    When I saw that the current rate if continued was heading towards 7,500 yards that made my hair stand up on end.....that's downright scary on a team with one of the greatest QBs of all times having nothing on the other side to get him another ring he deserves after all he has done last year and so far this year,despite the INTs sunday.

    Brady deserves a defense that will have his back,it's downright unjust with his talent and having to carry 53 guys on his shoulders to win games ....just sad indeed.

    The 81 Colts and 2008 Lions didn't have a Brady at the QB helm,thus their combined records were 2-26......imagine this team with an average QB....Brady gets 90% of the reason why we win so much since 2005 with 2008 being the exception without him.
    Last edited: Sep 27, 2011
  4. Sciz

    Sciz PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Re: The defense can't stay this bad all season long.....can they?

    They're not going to ever be "good" as far as yardage goes this season, but they're not going to be historically bad, and probably not even the worst yardage defense in the NFL. There's too many guys playing below their talent level and they're coach too well for that to happen.
  5. patsfan-1982

    patsfan-1982 Rookie

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    i just can't beleve that a BB coached defense will go a full 16 games ranked dead last... so what that said i think they will end the season with the 24th ranked defense in yerds and 11th in points
  6. Ice_Ice_Brady

    Ice_Ice_Brady Rookie

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    Considering Brady and our style of offense, how many teams will do the following:

    -Go conservative in the second half to protect a lead?

    -Run more than pass?

    -Have few possessions because our offense chews up so much clock?

    Answer is likely zero. Pats also have 5 ints on defense. Expect huge numbers against us all year. Our defense is far from elite, but the reason the numbers are so insane have to do with the teams air-it-out philosophy instead. Teams will try to beat us in a shootout now that they smell blood.
  7. NSPF

    NSPF Rookie

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    YARDAGE DOESN'T MATTER. CAPS DENOTE YELLING.

    No, it's definitely a problem. I don't know what to make of it. They can't be THAT bad. Our offense is usually good enough to hide the problem, even against the elite teams, which is one way to win, but it's nice to have something to fall back on.

    To answer the OP's question though, it's very unlikely that they'll finish with over 7000 yards allowed. Regression towards the mean is pretty reliable. Hopefully we can teach that to the Raiders...
  8. Sciz

    Sciz PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    And the defense seems to be just opportunistic enough for that to work in almost every game. It took 4 picks from Brady, including two inside the 10 and one returned for a TD, for the hottest team in the AFC to win by a field goal at home.

    How the defense plays the rest of the regular season is actually pretty irrelevant if Brady produces at anything higher than his 10th percentile (which he didn't this past week). What matters is how much the defense improves between now and the playoffs, when defense will actually start to matter.
  9. supafly

    supafly PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    Yardage doesn't matter...

    --Brady is going to throw for 7,700 yards and 59 TD's, didn't you hear?

    --Many of the 'other' NFL teams are doing it too, it's a different NFL all of a sudden. A new day dawned in the NFL when the full moon rose this month. It's all about the offense now. Didn't you see the Sunday and Monday night games? All about the offense. Vegas will be setting game totals at 75+ within the next 2 weeks.

    --Teams have now begun studying film on McCourty, something that they apparently just started doing as of now. Last year they just ignored their film, and went out and guessed. At least McCourty is 'in position' with his receiver.

    --The safeties will be just fine. Barrett and Brown are much better choices that Sanders and Meriweather. One lost a step, and the other took bad angles when tackling. Neither were tradeable players. They weren't worth anything, and will both likely be selling insurance next week.

    --Chung hits hard. That's all that matters. Hitting hard. Coverage be damned. He hits guys hard. That's what's important.

    --The LB's are fine too. Cunningham just needs time. Spikes is a 'thumper.'

    --No one fits the system here. It is much too complicated. Hell, even Aristotle wouldn't be able to figure it out. Guys like Matthews, Kerrigan, and JJ Watt would never fit here, nor will they ever become good players. Guys like that couldn't even spell "system."

    --Ochocinco didn't have the time to learn the system that other guys in the past have had. He will pass Welker, Gronk, Hernandez, Branch, and Woodhead as the #1 target and catch 100 balls. Just give it time. There's no reason to believe he's holding the offense back. He's making progress. And he didn't drop balls all of training camp either, that was a nasty rumor started by Marv Lewis.

    And finally....

    --We're going to be running the ball a lot this year, so it won't matter anyway.
    Last edited: Sep 27, 2011
  10. nashvillepatsfan

    nashvillepatsfan Rookie

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    I read this, and thought you had finally lost your mind

    then I saw this, and knew you were kidding :D

  11. ensoul

    ensoul Rookie

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    #37 Jersey

    My concern is where is the improvement supposed to come? These corners are getting burned almost every time. The gave up 9 plays for 20+ yards on Sunday.

    If this keeps up BB is going to start to play soft and give the opposing receivers 10 yards of space to avoid Bodden and McCourty getting torched. I know that Chung is out but the safeties seems clueless. BB really believes that Sanders and Meriweather are worse than who we have out there now?
  12. patsfaninpittsburgh

    patsfaninpittsburgh Banned

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    Re: The defense can't stay this bad all season long.....can they?

    Yeah

    Actually yardage is the most over emphasized, most useless indicator that is out there.

    CHFF has been tracking this. Outside of turnovers, the single best way to determine who lost is who has the most passing yards.

    Your problem is you don't have any clue as to how to analyze.

    What you should be looking at is scoring as a percent of drives with an emphasis on long scoring drives.

    On a historical basis, the percent of scoring drives that end is scores is at the historic average.
  13. satz

    satz Rookie

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    For years we where told yardage do not count just points allowed.

    now we are like 22+ ....that is rough too.
  14. Metaphors

    Metaphors Rookie

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    And the offense would gain 8645 yards, making the 2000 Rams (7075 yds) seem pretty lame. Brady alone would beat that Rams team with 7077 yds passing. The Bills would also break the 2007 Pats scoring record. Methinks the numbers will level out before the season progresses much further.

    The premise of all these threads seems to be how historically bad the defense is. In the 1st half of games, the Pats have defended 15 drives:
    3 TDs (20%)
    1 FG (7%)
    3 Int (20%)
    1 Downs (7%)
    7 Punts (47%)

    Add to that an average lead of 10 points at halftime and I think most people would look at those numbers and be pretty satisfied with the defense. If the defense is so inept, why aren't teams running up the score at halftime? I guess they feel sorry for the Pats.

    The only thing that distresses me about the defense is how easily teams are able to attack deep downfield. I don't mind giving up the occasional deep pass as long as that is balanced by an equal number of picks and occasions when the TV broadcast needs to go to commercial to give the receiver time to get off the field.

    The Raiders like to go downfield a lot. I would think that McCourty, Bodden, Sergio and Barrett are being read the riot act this week. Let's see how they respond on Sunday.

    As for yardage, the Jets gave up 383 yds and yielded no 3rd down coversions (0-8). Yet they were totally dominated in the game. It isn't that yards and 3rd down conversions don't mean anything. You just have to evaluate them in the context of the game. Otherwise you find yourself yearning for a 10 point loss (Jets vs. Raiders) rather than a 14 point win (Pats vs. Bolts).
  15. patsfaninpittsburgh

    patsfaninpittsburgh Banned

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    WOW

    Someone who can actually analyze the NFL in 2011!!!!!!!!!!!:rocker:

    The other point that would be added is over at coldhardfootballfacts, they have the bendability stat. It's a measure of how many yards are required to score a point.

    In 2010, Green Bay was #1 at 20 yards per point. In 2011, 19.5 yards per point.

    This stat and the QB rating differential are the single most important stat in the NFL.

    Yards are going to be inflated because there will be more drives. Against Miami, there were 6 scoring drives (non short) and none took more than 4 minutes.
  16. Patriot_in_NY

    Patriot_in_NY Rookie

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    I agree with Metaphors....

    These stats aren't good, but I think there are 2 things that are combining to make it appears significantly worse then it actually is.

    • Offensive Efficiency - We are scoring with such ease and so quickly that our defense is lopsided on TOP. We've been out to early leads in every game and we've had team in a position of throwing on us. We're only allowing 91 rush yds a game. If you look at another elite team with a great offense (Green Bay) they have allowed 18 less yds passing then us. That's all. Teams have to throw on high scoring teams.
    • It's a Offense-freindly league - 24 team defenses are allowing an average of over 200 passing yards a game. 27 teams average over 300 total yardage. Thats pretty pathetic. This league has slanted things so far towards offense that it's almost pathetic. They want to make the real game like Madden.

    I'm far more concerned about 26 ppg average.
  17. Speedy Welker

    Speedy Welker Rookie

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    I think our defnese is going to improve after the bye week. It's happened every year, before the bye the D usually played crappy and sloppy. They seemed to be more focus and hit hard because they know how important it is in second of the season.
  18. Patriot_in_NY

    Patriot_in_NY Rookie

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    I actually like the "bendability" stat, because it a quality stat (which means there is a direct correlation to them and wins). right now we are at 18, which is in the low end of good defenses and about the same as we were last year. The Ravens are at a ridiculously high 24.

    Things have to get better for us, but people really need to wise up and understand that the loss last weekend wasn't on the defense. We gave them 4 extra possessions on offense. They scored 24 points on them. While the occasional fumble or pick is expected, you can never expect to win throwing 4 picks in a game. It's pretty simple. Even the turnover differential is lopsided. we had 2 Int's too, and only managed 7 points of them.

    Take out those extra possessions that those teams gave each other and this game is 24-10 Pats. You just cannot overstate how devastating those turnovers were. Credit the Bills for making the most out of their opportunities, but they should have NEVER had them (or at least all of them).
  19. Kenneth Sims

    Kenneth Sims Rookie

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    We can argue until the cows come home whether yardage allowed is important or not. My two cents is it is because yardage allowed changes field position and limits time of possession which theoretically effects the offense's ability and opportunities to score it does matter. However, the Pats' offense is usually so dynamic it can overcome being disadvantaged in those areas by their defense but not always.

    What we can't argue is that this defense needs to improve dramatically if this team is going to win a Super Bowl. Here's my simpleton's prescription for improving this D:

    1. choose an identity- is this defense an aggressive 4-3 or a read and react 3-4? It would be nice to be multi-faceted with an adaptable defense. But, you better be able to play one style well at least first. My preference would be an aggressive defense But, you have to fully commit to it. You can't rush 3 and play man behind it. Choose one style first. Get good at it and then try to show different looks.

    2. Simplify, Simplify, Simplify- it seems like every season the defense struggles at the beginning of the season because the basic scheme is just too complex. Stop trying to confuse the opponent all the time and just try to beat them from time to time. On numerous occasions Sunday, Bills receivers blew right by the Pats CBs to make big plays. We're all blaming McCourty and Bodden, but my thinking is the technique they were asked to play put them at a huge disadvantage. The corners were lined up 5- 7 yards off the receivers at the snap but tried to bump the receivers as they approached them. Heck, it's hard enough to bump these incredible athletes when you start within arm length of them much less after they've had 5 yards to pick up speed to elude you. Time after time the CBs tried to bump, lost leverage, and the Bills receivers blew right by them. The only reason I can think of why they were playing this technique is to try to make it look like they were playing zone. Don't put your players at a disadvantage by trying to confuse the opponent.

    These are just my thoughts on the matter. Under Belichick, the defense usually improves as the season progresses. Let's hope that's the case this season.
  20. patsfaninpittsburgh

    patsfaninpittsburgh Banned

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    I differ in that I don't agree adding in the non offensive TD's to evaluate a defense. My alteration.
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