The Deep Ball

[Observer]

Name me the receivers he's had who could? And for Randy only count 2007. He was done fighting for balls after that.

Smart QB's throw the ball only where their receiver can get it. If in doubt go long or high as those are the least likely to get contested into a pick 6. Great receivers have exceptional catch radius. We have a couple of guys who have good to great radius at the moment but one can't get seperation deep or isn't consistently in synch yet and of the other two one went out in the first quarter today and the other had a lousy day by his own standards.

I think that there is a difference between where the defender cannot catch it and where the defender cannot touch it. Brady seems to much prefer the latter. I think it is adequate, on a deep throw, to put the ball where both the receiver and defender can reach it. You then rely on your receiver to either make the catch, with the chance that it could be defended. Most such throws are defended without being intercepted.

 

[crowell33]

This is such a case of selection bias....

I bet fans mostly see deep throws on highlight reels more than anything else; which would obviously make it look easier and more common than it really is. Why? Cause stats don't lie, and Brady is well above average when it comes to deep throws. In fact, Brady was flat out awesome in 2003 and 2004.

From Espn, I looked up "Passes Thrown" -- which is essentially an air yards stat that ignored YAC -- and I then combined the 31-40 yard throws and 41+ yards throws:

Player
Yr:Comp.Att.Yr.TD.INT

Brady
'02: 03 22 117 0 1
'03: 12 31 566 5 3
'04: 12 38 507 3 3
'05: 06 27 164 3 1
'06: 07 25 314 3 3
'07: 13 30 622 8 2
'09: 06 30 284 4 4
'10: 05 19 225 3 2
'11: 01 15 046 0 0

PManning
'02: 08 30 322 3 4
'03: 11 31 449 6 0
'04: 11 22 400 8 1
'05: 09 26 355 7 2
'06: 13 31 560 3 0
'07: 10 27 452 6 2
'08: 07 28 363 3 4
'09: 07 27 327 3 2
'10: 08 25 347 3 1

Roethlisberger:
'04: 09 25 361 3 3
'05: 07 13 315 1 1
'06: 03 19 336 2 6
'07: 09 18 378 6 2
'08: 07 24 306 3 2
'09: 10 24 455 5 2
'10: 09 19 377 4 1
'11: 07 27 385 4 2

Vick
'02: 06 30 298 3 1
'03: 03 08 131 1 1
'04: 04 22 180 2 1
'05: 06 27 274 1 3
'06: 06 38 298 0 1
'10: 08 20 427 3 1
'11: 07 21 335 2 4

Rivers:
'06: 07 30 289 3 0
'07: 04 21 164 1 2
'08: 10 24 465 4 1
'09: 11 35 520 1 2
'10: 08 21 407 5 3
'11: 09 31 370 6 4

Rodgers:
'09: 09 31 437 2 2
'10: 08 24 381 4 4
'11: 11 20 526 6 0

Flacco:
'08: 08 31 409 4 3
'09: 07 28 300 4 4
'10: 08 23 385 3 0
'11: 07 33 289 3 1

Eli
'05: 05 30 221 0 3
'06: 10 25 414 5 4
'07: 06 29 252 3 2
'08: 05 20 186 3 1
'09: 08 22 335 2 1
'10: 07 29 328 6 2
'11: 11 35 624 3 1

Awesome work. It proves without a shadow of a doubt that this is an age issue with Brady. As you point out, in the Superbowl years ( 2003 & the last Superbowl win in 2004 ) when Brady was age 26 & 27, he hit a combined 35% of the long throws without an elite deep receiver. Over the last 3 seasons including the start of 2012, Brady is at 19%, and over just last season and this season combined, Brady now 35 years old, has hit on 17% of the longer passes over the last 18 games, almost exactly half of where he was in his prime.

This unfortunately has led defensive coordinators to shorten the field, flooding the short and medium areas with Db's.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I think that there is a difference between where the defender cannot catch it and where the defender cannot touch it. Brady seems to much prefer the latter. I think it is adequate, on a deep throw, to put the ball where both the receiver and defender can reach it. You then rely on your receiver to either make the catch, with the chance that it could be defended. Most such throws are defended without being intercepted.

Hasn't been the case here. I see that happen for other QB's, including some who flat out suck. But no such luck for Brady. Moss was that guy for 3/4ths of one season once. That was it. Branch and Givens were those guys, a long time ago. The deep throw is a low percentage play for most teams, even moreso for this team because they've never had the horses as far as speed or athleticism at the position.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Awesome work. It proves without a shadow of a doubt that this is an age issue with Brady. As you point out, in the Superbowl years ( 2003 & the last Superbowl win in 2004 ) when Brady was age 26 & 27, he hit a combined 35% of the long throws without an elite deep receiver. Over the last 3 seasons including the start of 2012, Brady is at 19%, and over just last season and this season combined, Brady now 35 years old, has hit on 17% of the longer passes over the last 18 games, almost exactly half of where he was in his prime.

This unfortunately has led defensive coordinators to shorten the field, flooding the short and medium areas with Db's.

They may not have been elite but Branch and Givens were reliable... They were where they were supposed to be when they were supposed to be and they caught everything thrown at them. Was a big point of pride you should recall if you were a patsfan then.

Who have been his outside WR's in 2010, 2011 and 2012...let alone over the last 18 games...

 

[Deus Irae]

As I pointed out in another thread, if Lloyd catches those two bombs, Brady is 8 for 19. This is a non-issue.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

As I pointed out in another thread, if Lloyd catches those two bombs, Brady is 8 for 19. This is a non-issue.

It's an issue for those who don't get that those misses weren't on Brady, nor are the majority of his deep misses. He'd have fallen on his sword last week if it was on him, and he wouldn't have been sitting on the bench with Welker between them trying to hand diagram to Brandon where he went wrong if it was on him today.

 

[condon84]

This is not news. Brady is not a great touch thrower, period. He doesn't really throw the deep ball well, nor the fade, nor any other pass that requires a lot of touch. He is probably the most accurate passer within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage and is also very accurate throwing the 10-15 yard out and the 15-20 yard seam pass, and does it with a lot of velocity. As for the deep ball, it is one thing when you can just throw it to an area on the field and have Moss go get it, it is another to throw it so that an ordinary mortal can go get it. Brady has always, always been bad at it, although to be fair, he generally leads the guy too much so that it is not an interception, rather than underthrowing it (SB 46 aside).

Sadly, there will be posters who will see it differently. Brady's strength is his ability to read the defense and make quick decisions. And he's honed the short/intermediate passes to the point that I think he's the best ever at doing it. However, his long ball is probably average. His timing and anticipation just isn't there. His arm strength isn't really an issue, so I don't think this is an age problem.

This is why I think it's stupid to go away from what were we've been doing so well the past few years. It showed today again when we went back to spreading them out and letting Brady make quick decisions. We were able to move the ball easily.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Sadly, there will be posters who will see it differently. Brady's strength is his ability to read the defense and make quick decisions. And he's honed the short/intermediate passes to the point that I think he's the best ever at doing it. However, his long ball is probably average. His timing and anticipation just isn't there. His arm strength isn't really an issue, so I don't think this is an age problem.

This is why I think it's stupid to go away from what were we've been doing so well the past few years. It showed today again when we went back to spreading them out and letting Brady make quick decisions. We were able to move the ball easily.

What makes you think it's HIS timing and anticipation that isn't there...

 

[Observer]

Hasn't been the case here. I see that happen for other QB's, including some who flat out suck. But no such luck for Brady. Moss was that guy for 3/4ths of one season once. That was it. Branch and Givens were those guys, a long time ago. The deep throw is a low percentage play for most teams, even moreso for this team because they've never had the horses as far as speed or athleticism at the position.

You may be right. I would still prefer Brady take that risk more though. So many other teams at least get PI penalties called that way.

 

[condon84]

What makes you think it's HIS timing and anticipation that isn't there...

The throw to Lloyd and to Gronk. Were those incomplete passes the receivers fault?

 

[Deus Irae]

The throw to Lloyd and to Gronk. Were those incomplete passes the receivers fault?

Please explain how the throw to Lloyd was Brady fault.

 

[condon84]

Please explain how the throw to Lloyd was Brady fault.

Are you serious? Or is this a troll attempt?

 

[Shockt327]

Awesome work. It proves without a shadow of a doubt that this is an age issue with Brady. As you point out, in the Superbowl years ( 2003 & the last Superbowl win in 2004 ) when Brady was age 26 & 27, he hit a combined 35% of the long throws without an elite deep receiver. Over the last 3 seasons including the start of 2012, Brady is at 19%, and over just last season and this season combined, Brady now 35 years old, has hit on 17% of the longer passes over the last 18 games, almost exactly half of where he was in his prime.

This unfortunately has led defensive coordinators to shorten the field, flooding the short and medium areas with Db's.

Nice try, but I'll just echo the below sentiment, which blows a hole in your argument....

As I pointed out in another thread, if Lloyd catches those two bombs, Brady is 8 for 19. This is a non-issue.

 

[Deus Irae]

Are you serious? Or is this a troll attempt?

Yes, I'm serious. Please explain how the throw to Lloyd was Brady fault.

 

[Bonzo]

The thought was that Lloyd was brought in to help supply some balance to the passing attack by threatening the deep part of the field, as well as outside the numbers (not necessarily on different plays). I trust, over the course of the season, that he will continue to develop a strong rapport with Brady; as it stands now, as with several seasons prior, this offense remains in want of some speed on the outside.

Judging from the handful of games on the adjacent TVs at the sports bar today, it's hard not to notice, what with the way the NFL is played these days, that some QBs are making their living by chucking the ball down the sideline.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

1 to lloyd was not on brady..one to gronk..i think was


But what i did notice. he knows how to keep his feet in bounds when making those great sideline catches. Love that about him

 

[condon84]

Yes, I'm serious. Please explain how the throw to Lloyd was Brady fault.

Lloyd got behind the defense and was running towards the left post. Brady threw it where Lloyd had to turn back to his right to try to catch it.

 

[Observer]

Nice try, but I'll just echo the below sentiment, which blows a hole in your argument....

It is not how many or what fraction he completed that is interesting. Look at the cumulative yards on that list. Most qbs routinely make over 300 yards that way with Eli at a whopping 600+ last year. Guess who is routinely under 300?

 

[Deus Irae]

Lloyd got behind the defense and was running towards the left post. Brady threw it where Lloyd had to turn back to his right to try to catch it.

1.) Lloyd wasn't behind the defense to any significant degree. The defender was right with him, on his side.

2.) You're making an assumption as to who was at fault in terms of the angle Lloyd took. Given that Brady's been in the system longer and spent years throwing deep balls to the greatest deep ball wide receiver in the history of American football, why would you assume that Lloyd was in the right here?

3.) Even if you're correct about who got the read correct, that's still just a "not yet on the same page" issue as opposed to a bad throw issue, which means it's a non-issue for the purposes of this thread and this thread is wrongheaded. Which brings us back to my initial position.

 

[crowell33]

Nice try, but I'll just echo the below sentiment, which blows a hole in your argument....

You said "If Lloyd catches those two bombs" it blows a whole in my argument. "

That response is so weak that I am ashamed of my self for responding to it, but here goes. You can never use "if " to prove a point.

1. If all Brady's receivers caught his long throws he would be 100% accurate.
2. If all Brady's receivers dropped his long throws he would be 0% accurate.
3. If frogs had wings and could fly they would be birds.

The 2003- 2004 young Brady hit 35% of his long throws. The old Brady 2011-2012 hit 17% of the long throws ( less than half ). Those are facts. That is not my "argument" nor have I thrown in "ifs" or "should haves"or "lets pretend that" fantasies. I have stated a fact, a well researched fact. I am not offering an opinion. Just the facts.