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The Cellphone Effect

Discussion in 'Political Discussion' started by Born_a_Patriot, Nov 2, 2008.

  1. Born_a_Patriot

    Born_a_Patriot PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    These are Barack Obama's leads in the likely voter models presently included in the Real Clear Politics average, plus the Research 2000 poll which they arbitrarily exclude.

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    The polls in the Cingular-y orange color include cellphones in their samples; the polls in gray do not. The cellphone polls have Obama ahead by an average of 9.4 points; the landline-only polls, 5.1 points.

    I did a radio hit the other afternoon with Mark DeCamillo of California's vaunted Field Poll, which does include cellphones in their samples. He suggested to me that it was much easier to get the cooperation of cellphone users on the weekend than during the week. How come? Because most cellphone plans include free weekend minutes. Conversely, one might expect that young people are particularly difficult to reach on their landlines over the weekend, since they tend to be away from home more (especially on a weekend when some nontrivial number of them are out volunteering for Obama). So, while I haven't tried to verify this, it wouldn't surprise me if the "cellphone gap" expands over the weekend, and contracts during the week.
  2. scout

    scout Rookie

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    #15 Jersey

    My brother mentioned this cell phone poll effect to me last week, it has to have an effect on a phone poll. Lets' have a phone poll without using cell phones in our data, is that good for you Mr. Dewey?
  3. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    I'll say upfront that I fully expect Obama to win so I'm not trying to talk myself into anything.

    The problem with this theory is :

    The pollsters already adjust for expected turnout. The "cellphone" effect is already adjusted for in that the voting percentages for each candidate for younger voters is polled for and their expected turnout is adjusted for. Unless you think that a young voter reached on a landline is different from a young voter not reached on a cellphone is different then this effect isn't really an issue. All the "cellphone effect" is is not getting the young vote accounted for. However pollsters do have that adjusted for and it's still highly uncertain the 18-24s will vote anyway. Every election we hear that they will - then they don't.

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