The Cassel ROI

[MoLewisrocks]

That is correct, but th4ere is one more thing that no one is talking about. From the moment he is franchised until he is traded or the tag is rescinded, our cap is dropped by over $14 million dollars. We cannot use that money to sign free agents or extend current players. Franchising Cassel will almost certainly take us out of the free agent market until very close to or the day of the draft.

This is if all goes well. If things do not go well and Cassel's agent senses for a millisecond that Cassel will get less than a $14 mil signing bonus, Cassel will sign the franchise tag to protect himself.

It's been talked about in several earlier threads space. The franchise tags go on two weeks before the start of FA. Not to mention the Patriots project with roughly $24M in cap space for 2009. First year cap hits for FA or extensions are generally pretty favorable and less than their deal average, sometimes by half And whose to say there is a big ticket FA Belioli is even contemplating persuing. I think we'd be fine. In a tag and trade Cassel is gone well before the draft, particularly in a year when the QB draft cupboard is considered relatively bare.

If things do not go well and Cassel's current bosses sense for a millisecond that Cassel will get less than a $14M signing bonus, they will not tag him... Just as if things do go well and they sense he will get substantially than a $14M signing bonus he and his agent will also sense that and sign the tag over somebody's dead body.

 

[AzPatsFan]

Belichick has won by having the best 53, 59,(PS), or 65 (PS & IR, & SR) that he can afford.

His teams have always done better the later in the year. Part of that is that he develops players, but some of it is that other teams run out of competent substitutes, and are forced to play exploitable scrubs as the year and injuries wears on. BB seeks to have at least adequate players everywhere, including in reserve.

The one area that BB has not been able to stockpile adequate reserves is at the most important position of all, QB. Until this year it didn't hurt, because TB was an iron man. IMHO BB will want to have depth at QB, and will sacrifice to do so, given the QB questions.
Recall that when BB has any position with questions, his usual modus operandi, is to draft a replacement (O' Connel) and sign a few veterans (Cassel).

I fail to see why he won't make every attempt to keep Cassel for at least one year, to see if Brady can still play. TB may have lost some mobility with a bum leg ruining his "escapability". Sometimes injury removes a spark of competition too. That happened to a HOF guy Dan Marino, who was never the same after a leg injury.

It is unlikely, but BB is alaways a realist. Drew Bledsoe was a near HOF QB, but he gave the job to unheralded Tom Brady and traded the older Bledsoe. It is not inconceivable that he would do so once again. BB is all about winning. If he decides the Team is better off with a haul of draft picks, to rebuild his team to a SB level, and a better than adequate MC, who is much younger, and more mobile, he just might do so again.

BB keeps his own counsel, and only he knows what he sees in practice and with personality/leadership questions. He was unafraid of having Cassel as a backup QB, that puzzled some people. IMHO, he gave MC a tar baby in the preseason, to audition a bunch of scrub OLs, get beat up, and and save TB from taking a a beating whiel the injured O-line healed. I also think he did it to gauge MC's character and leadership in adversity. Certainly, Matt had to know that he would not look good, without time to throw. Cassel never complained and just tried to do the job handed to him. I suspect he won some admration and respect from his team-mates who saw the raw deal that he had and accepted.

Playing QB is partly talent, but 90% of the time, QB is played between the ears. It's also having the personality to lead a team of 53 players. Great athletic talents like Jeff George and Ryan Leaf, would so anger their teammates with their personality defects, to the point that they would not play for them.

One of the truly interesting indicators to me, is that Matt Cassel has had no problems with team rebellion, or players denigrating his leadership or effort, even during the rough beginnings. Players defended him, up to and including Tom Brady. OTOH, It is clear that his mechanics and physical attributes: height, arm, release, foot speed, are of NFL star quality. The results look pretty good too. Playing .600 ball while learning to be an NFL QB, is nothing to denigrate. :singing:

 

[Urgent]

You'd be amazed what teams would do. Houston paid two second rounders for the opportunity to bestow on Matt Schaub, a guy who had never won a game as a starter or backup, a $48M contract.

The Browns invested a first round pick in Brady Quinn and then, after just missing out on a playoff berth due to poor QB play signed Derek Anderson to a 3 year $24M extension with $14M guaranteed just to hedge their bets against Brady Quinn being no better.

The Packers gave up a 1st round pick for the pleasure of grooming Aaron Rogers for three seasons behind a guy they couldn't pay to retire. And based on his first half dozen somewhat inconsistent starts after finally trading that other guy they just extended Rogers on a 6 year $65M deal that pays him $12.9M this year with 2 years still remaining on his rookie deal. Go figure...

Don't be afraid of Matt Cassel succeeding. Embrace it. So you were wrong, the important thing is this FO was right and may well reap substantial rewards as a result...For the love of God people...LOL

One way the JETS helped rebuild their team after Herm left was by tagging a disgruntled John Abraham for the second time after promising him a contract they could not afford. Couldn't afford the tag either. Yet a week later two teams were talking to the JETS about trading for Abraham and within a day he had a deal worked out with Atlanta and the JETS used Seattle's willingness to part with a first to get Atlanta, who was offering a second, to up the ante. And Abraham got the long term deal he wanted. So everyone came away happy.

Abraham didn't help Atlanta a bit that year, nothing could. This year, different scenario and it's nice to have a stud DE on a team with a stud rookie QB... Some GM's plan for the future as well as the present.

I'm not sure anyone has suggested it is impossible, nor has anyone wished that Cassel not succeed.

It's not that a franchise-and-trade scenario is impossible.
It's that the risk needs to be recognized.

The upside is gaining around $500K in draft value - and you can argue that the Patriots could get some wild offer and double that value.
The downside is carrying $14mm in a back-up player.

Given those figures, you better be 96% certain that you have a trade partner before embarking on the franchise tag.

And on those examples:
The Packers 'gave up a first round pick' -- didn't they use a first rounder on Aaron Rodgers?
The deal with Abraham is strikingly different - he was a former first rounder as well who had been to several Pro Bowls when he was franchised and traded. Nice as Cassel has been, he has not earned multiple Pro Bowl berths.
Wonderful as Cassel has been, he has taken a team that went 16-0 the previous year and led it to a 6-4 record so far. I don't see him going to the Pro Bowl this season.

 

[Urgent]

Look at it another way:

Let's say you are willing to take the $14mm risk because you believe you can get a second-round pick in trade, and with that second-rounder, you are determined to select a corner. With that corner, you figure you've got a 50-50 shot that he will be a starter.

You recognize that there is a good chance that Cassel will run the numbers and decide to keep the $14mm. So you have a decent risk at eating the $14mm.

Why not take half that amount and select a starting corner in free agency? The risk profile is lower.

 

[billdog3484]

we will keep him or get something from him. BB and SP are too smart for this not to happen. its nonsensical to think we would get less than a 2nd rounder

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Look at it another way:

Let's say you are willing to take the $14mm risk because you believe you can get a second-round pick in trade, and with that second-rounder, you are determined to select a corner. With that corner, you figure you've got a 50-50 shot that he will be a starter.

You recognize that there is a good chance that Cassel will run the numbers and decide to keep the $14mm. So you have a decent risk at eating the $14mm.

Why not take half that amount and select a starting corner in free agency? The risk profile is lower.

They'll get more than a second for openers or they won't tag him. And maybe what they get allows them to trade up in the first and second rounds or trade for a player Bill covets like that guy, what was his name, Welker... There is not a good chance that Cassel will run the numbers and decide to keep the $14M. He went to USC and he's no idiot. If he has a shot at starting for another franchise on a long term deal that could potentially pay him $100M over the course of his career, then that is what he takes because that has been his goal SINCE HS. The fact that it puts more money in his bank account faster (signing bonus pays up front, the tag is doled out over 17 weeks beginning in September) is just gravey...

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Belichick has won by having the best 53, 59,(PS), or 65 (PS & IR, & SR) that he can afford.

His teams have always done better the later in the year. Part of that is that he develops players, but some of it is that other teams run out of competent substitutes, and are forced to play exploitable scrubs as the year and injuries wears on. BB seeks to have at least adequate players everywhere, including in reserve.

The one area that BB has not been able to stockpile adequate reserves is at the most important position of all, QB. Until this year it didn't hurt, because TB was an iron man. IMHO BB will want to have depth at QB, and will sacrifice to do so, given the QB questions.
Recall that when BB has any position with questions, his usual modus operandi, is to draft a replacement (O' Connel) and sign a few veterans (Cassel).

I fail to see why he won't make every attempt to keep Cassel for at least one year, to see if Brady can still play. TB may have lost some mobility with a bum leg ruining his "escapability". Sometimes injury removes a spark of competition too. That happened to a HOF guy Dan Marino, who was never the same after a leg injury.

It is unlikely, but BB is alaways a realist. Drew Bledsoe was a near HOF QB, but he gave the job to unheralded Tom Brady and traded the older Bledsoe. It is not inconceivable that he would do so once again. BB is all about winning. If he decides the Team is better off with a haul of draft picks, to rebuild his team to a SB level, and a better than adequate MC, who is much younger, and more mobile, he just might do so again.

BB keeps his own counsel, and only he knows what he sees in practice and with personality/leadership questions. He was unafraid of having Cassel as a backup QB, that puzzled some people. IMHO, he gave MC a tar baby in the preseason, to audition a bunch of scrub OLs, get beat up, and and save TB from taking a a beating whiel the injured O-line healed. I also think he did it to gauge MC's character and leadership in adversity. Certainly, Matt had to know that he would not look good, without time to throw. Cassel never complained and just tried to do the job handed to him. I suspect he won some admration and respect from his team-mates who saw the raw deal that he had and accepted.

Playing QB is partly talent, but 90% of the time, QB is played between the ears. It's also having the personality to lead a team of 53 players. Great athletic talents like Jeff George and Ryan Leaf, would so anger their teammates with their personality defects, to the point that they would not play for them.

One of the truly interesting indicators to me, is that Matt Cassel has had no problems with team rebellion, or players denigrating his leadership or effort, even during the rough beginnings. Players defended him, up to and including Tom Brady. OTOH, It is clear that his mechanics and physical attributes: height, arm, release, foot speed, are of NFL star quality. The results look pretty good too. Playing .600 ball while learning to be an NFL QB, is nothing to denigrate. :singing:

They're not going to keep Cassel at $14.5M per as $14M Brady insurance AZ... 'Sante was a stretch at $7M in an inexpensive defensive backfield, and they should have traded him while tagged.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I'm not sure anyone has suggested it is impossible, nor has anyone wished that Cassel not succeed.

It's not that a franchise-and-trade scenario is impossible.
It's that the risk needs to be recognized.

The upside is gaining around $500K in draft value - and you can argue that the Patriots could get some wild offer and double that value.
The downside is carrying $14mm in a back-up player.

Given those figures, you better be 96% certain that you have a trade partner before embarking on the franchise tag.

And on those examples:
The Packers 'gave up a first round pick' -- didn't they use a first rounder on Aaron Rodgers?
The deal with Abraham is strikingly different - he was a former first rounder as well who had been to several Pro Bowls when he was franchised and traded. Nice as Cassel has been, he has not earned multiple Pro Bowl berths.
Wonderful as Cassel has been, he has taken a team that went 16-0 the previous year and led it to a 6-4 record so far. I don't see him going to the Pro Bowl this season.

They essentially gave that pick up in drafting a QB while they had a legend who wasn't remotely close to retiring on the roster. Abraham had been injured and had some lackluster seasons and Mangini didn't want him as he wasn't a fit for his 3-4 and he hated the JETS for franchising him twice and had announced he would not report and it was reported the JETS didn't have enough cap to pay him without massive cuts. Yet, he was gone in a week...

As for the pro bowl, Brady wasn't elected in 2001, but he was added as a replacement...his team was 5-5 when the votes were being tallied. That he's only been voted to 3 pro bowls in 8 HOF seasons here speaks volumes about how little that means. Anderson got added to replace Tom last season, after he'd sucked down the stretch and cost Cleveland a shot at the playoffs...this year he'll only go if he buys a ticket. Who goes often depends more on whose hurt and who backs out and whose left available to replace them. Just ask Matt Light.

 

[MassPats38]

I fail to see why he won't make every attempt to keep Cassel for at least one year, to see if Brady can still play. TB may have lost some mobility with a bum leg ruining his "escapability". Sometimes injury removes a spark of competition too. That happened to a HOF guy Dan Marino, who was never the same after a leg injury.

It is unlikely, but BB is alaways a realist. Drew Bledsoe was a near HOF QB, but he gave the job to unheralded Tom Brady and traded the older Bledsoe. It is not inconceivable that he would do so once again. BB is all about winning. If he decides the Team is better off with a haul of draft picks, to rebuild his team to a SB level, and a better than adequate MC, who is much younger, and more mobile, he just might do so again.

But doesn't Belichick also go for players representing value at the position? I have no doubt he and Pioli will sit in their war room at season's end and discuss the quarterback situation, including Brady's progress through rehab, Cassel's free agency, and the options at QB if Brady can return to form but will not do so by the time the season starts. I just cannot envision him saying the gap between Cassel and O'Connell is so great that it justifies an expenditure of $14 million. If Brady were to be traded, that would offset the loss, but would Cassel's abilities justify that salary level? Given the results from Brady, I do not see the two on the same plane as far as salary goes.

I also don't see the Bledsoe/Brady situations as analogous. Belichick was not a fan of Bledsoe, who was not one of the great thinking QBs and improvised frequently, despite Bledsoe's high regard from most fans and the media. The injury and Brady's subsequent performance gave him an out from that situation and he took it. Belichick moved Brady from last to second on the depth chart within a year, thus liked what he saw in short order. Cassel is in his 4th season and played second banana to any veteran QB and saw the number 2 slot last year. Brady is one of the few players Belichick openly praises. With that said, I do suspect he would candidly assess if Brady could not perform at the ability he once could and trade him if a better option was available. The reduction would have to be severe, and given Brady's lack of mobility generally he is not looking at a sea change in performance that a QB with Culpepper's mobility might see after an injury.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

But doesn't Belichick also go for players representing value at the position? I have no doubt he and Pioli will sit in their war room at season's end and discuss the quarterback situation, including Brady's progress through rehab, Cassel's free agency, and the options at QB if Brady can return to form but will not do so by the time the season starts. I just cannot envision him saying the gap between Cassel and O'Connell is so great that it justifies an expenditure of $14 million. If Brady were to be traded, that would offset the loss, but would Cassel's abilities justify that salary level? Given the results from Brady, I do not see the two on the same plane as far as salary goes.

I also don't see the Bledsoe/Brady situations as analogous. Belichick was not a fan of Bledsoe, who was not one of the great thinking QBs and improvised frequently, despite Bledsoe's high regard from most fans and the media. The injury and Brady's subsequent performance gave him an out from that situation and he took it. Belichick moved Brady from last to second on the depth chart within a year, thus liked what he saw in short order. Cassel is in his 4th season and played second banana to any veteran QB and saw the number 2 slot last year. Brady is one of the few players Belichick openly praises. With that said, I do suspect he would candidly assess if Brady could not perform at the ability he once could and trade him if a better option was available. The reduction would have to be severe, and given Brady's lack of mobility generally he is not looking at a sea change in performance that a QB with Culpepper's mobility might see after an injury.

Cassel was the #3 QB in 2005 as a rookie with Flutie here. He was #2 alone in 2006 and Vinny was brought in mid season as a #3. In 2007 Cassel was #2 ahead of Gutierrez. He couldn't advance any farther or faster than Brady could because he also needed an injury to...

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

What is left in the kitty is thh difference what we are saving on a startring QB this year.

Cassel's salary this year is $520K. That is not exactly an invetment, now is it?

Pay the guy $6-8 mil this year, what a player of his production is getting, and then talk about getting a return on invetment.

Cassel has already repaid the investment in him many times over.

I was making friends and influencing people back in week three with something very similar. As it is Mattyice justified my observations and "blind homerism" (in lieu of "faith"), now I'm not so certain he would be open to signing such a deal given the reports of teams evaluating him for the offseason. Good on Matt, I wish him great success...as long as he's not playing NE.

 

[AzPatsFan]

They're not going to keep Cassel at $14.5M per as $14M Brady insurance AZ... 'Sante was a stretch at $7M in an inexpensive defensive backfield, and they should have traded him while tagged.

But Sante was not a great CB, merely a competent interceptor when they rotated the zone his way.

In any case, the Patriots had only $4 million in cap space, and would have had to cut some people to keep Asante.

The situation is now different. Miquel projects a $24 million cap space in 2009 with only a half dozen good vets but no superstars, due for signing. They can afford to keep Cassel, in 2009, whereas they could NOT afford to keep Asante, in 2008.

There are lots of young draftees on the roster who are young and still cheap now, unlike before, as the Team rebuilds on the fly as it continues to win. We can even predict that more cap space will be available if the last oldtimers, Rodney and Tedy and Larry retire...

BB is all about having good depth and could have that depth for a season, at the most important position, while he finds out whether Tom Brady can come back, and whether KO can contribute someday. In 2010 he can let one of them go; or even choose to keep both, but highly unlikely. He can afford the insurance this next year. After next year, when he needs some major money for signings, the QB trial is over.

There are likely to be very few vet FAs BB will be chasing in 2009, because of the double draft facing him. All the possible holes will be filled by relatively cheap first day picks,as he has five through the third round.

What do they need but a good developmental OL, and a backup blocking TE on O?

A Safety, ILB and CB and perhaps a developmental OLB/DE conversion candidate to add to the prospects, along with a reserve NT to rest Wilfork ocasionally.

The only vet FAs that would appeal is a Covin, AD, type pass rushing OLB, and those would only cost $5 milllion tops, still leaving the Pats in fine cap shape.

 

[smg93]

Interesting debate, but in many ways this is just a re-hash of mamy other threads I've seen here. The whole message of this thread really was about counting ones blessings. This isn't about looking forward as so many other threads have addressed.

What this is about is seeing how many people in this board have the ability to take a step back and realize how fortunate we are to have Matt perform at this level based on a smallish $1.4 million cost over the last four years. This in itself is something all of us should appreciate rather than constantly debate over whether we can get any compensation for him at the end of the season.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Interesting debate, but in many ways this is just a re-hash of mamy other threads I've seen here. The whole message of this thread really was about counting ones blessings. This isn't about looking forward as so many other threads have addressed.

What this is about is seeing how many people in this board have the ability to take a step back and realize how fortunate we are to have Matt perform at this level based on a smallish $1.4 million cost over the last four years. This in itself is something all of us should appreciate rather than constantly debate over whether we can get any compensation for him at the end of the season.

Yep, we're blessed, now pass the potatoes...please.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

But Sante was not a great CB, merely a competent interceptor when they rotated the zone his way.

In any case, the Patriots had only $4 million in cap space, and would have had to cut some people to keep Asante.

The situation is now different. Miquel projects a $24 million cap space in 2009 with only a half dozen good vets but no superstars, due for signing. They can afford to keep Cassel, in 2009, whereas they could NOT afford to keep Asante, in 2008.

There are lots of young draftees on the roster who are young and still cheap now, unlike before, as the Team rebuilds on the fly as it continues to win. We can even predict that more cap space will be available if the last oldtimers, Rodney and Tedy and Larry retire...

BB is all about having good depth and could have that depth for a season, at the most important position, while he finds out whether Tom Brady can come back, and whether KO can contribute someday. In 2010 he can let one of them go; or even choose to keep both, but highly unlikely. He can afford the insurance this next year. After next year, when he needs some major money for signings, the QB trial is over.

There are likely to be very few vet FAs BB will be chasing in 2009, because of the double draft facing him. All the possible holes will be filled by relatively cheap first day picks,as he has five through the third round.

What do they need but a good developmental OL, and a backup blocking TE on O?

A Safety, ILB and CB and perhaps a developmental OLB/DE conversion candidate to add to the prospects, along with a reserve NT to rest Wilfork ocasionally.

The only vet FAs that would appeal is a Covin, AD, type pass rushing OLB, and those would only cost $5 milllion tops, still leaving the Pats in fine cap shape.

First off, I was talking about trading Asante in 2007, when he was tagged as opposed to playing him for one more season and letting him walk. Because I realized what he was and that we were never going to pay him what he wanted going forward on a long term deal. Having him on the roster in 2007 didn't accomplish anything but eating cap while the second or better we'd have gotten for him might have then and now.

Bill has made it pretty clear that depth at QB on this team is either developed or supplemented with a minimum salary veteran. There are lots of positions on this roster that could be upgraded at the starting position let alone depth/rotation wise. There is no way he invests more than half his available cap space or more than 12% of his total cap on a backup QB. In fact that is about the limit for the position here, period and knowing that is why Brady has never demanded the exorbitant highest paid deal. That you think he'd tie up $29M or almost a quarter of his total cap in 2009 on the QB position is preposterous in a league where defense wins championships. It would be impossible to negotiate a team friendly deal with a guy like Wilfork for example while explaining that rationale.

As for any scenario in which he swaps fairly equal contracts to retain potential with possible additional upside over a proven HOF performer in his prime whose absence only underscored his value as it changed the NFL landscape this season, that's beyond nuts. While the fact that some other teams will likely salivate over swapping what they've presently got and picks for a shot at signing that guy is anything but.

BTW our cap position was similar heading into 2006 and 2007. Cap hasn't been an issue here since the new CBA and TV deals increased it dramatically. Ditto for most teams. It will remain that way for teams that don't squander it, and under BB we never have.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Interesting debate, but in many ways this is just a re-hash of mamy other threads I've seen here. The whole message of this thread really was about counting ones blessings. This isn't about looking forward as so many other threads have addressed.

What this is about is seeing how many people in this board have the ability to take a step back and realize how fortunate we are to have Matt perform at this level based on a smallish $1.4 million cost over the last four years. This in itself is something all of us should appreciate rather than constantly debate over whether we can get any compensation for him at the end of the season.

True. But it's also about the people who mocked Cassel as a failure for not being flipped in 2007 ala Matt Schaub because they never understood that he had value on the roster as far as Bill was concerned whether the market perceived that or not. And fate has proven Bill, and those of us who always realized that and defended him as a result, were the smart ones after all and the kneejerks who taunted the rest of us over the lack of #1 offers for Cassel were just that.

 

[Urgent]

The situation is now different. Miquel projects a $24 million cap space in 2009 with only a half dozen good vets but no superstars, due for signing. They can afford to keep Cassel, in 2009, whereas they could NOT afford to keep Asante, in 2008.

Don't misuse that figure.

Yes, $24mm is great.
However, that's not $24mm in cap space with 53 signed, like Tampa Bay or Kansas City. That's with 39 signed.
Add 14 to the regular roster, add another six or so for IR, add practice squad. You need to add around 25 players.

Or an average of about $1mm per player added.
Given that rosters are about 53, and the cap is $116mm, that's an average of over $2mm per NFL player.

So, the Pats will be filling their roster at half that level, including any free agents they compete for at OT, CB, or S. Note that at DB, only Hobbs, Wheatley, Wilhite, and Meriweather are signed - they will need five or six DB's, and that will cost money.

Take $14mm out, and you are filling the roster not with players averaging $1mm, but averaging $400K, below the veteran minimum.

Further, the Patriots may want to re-sign Wilfork or Hobbs or someone.

Don't readily assume that the Patriots can afford to carry Cassel at $14mm in 2009.