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The Cassel ROI

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by smg93, Nov 19, 2008.

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  1. smg93

    smg93 Rookie

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    I've seen lots of debate in this board (which is a good thing) about whether or not the Pats should franchise Cassel because if he becomes an unrestricted free agent, we may lose him and get nothing in return. (let's even assume we get no compensatory picks even though it's likely that we will).

    I understand where that reasoning comes from because of his success this year. Food for thought however is that his four year rookie contract is worth a total of $1.44 million. That's not his salary this year but his salary for the entire four years.

    So let's think about this for a second. He's been doing a real good job this season and in my opinion, better than most starting QB's in this league. How many starting QB's in this league (or at least QB's who are starting for their teams right now) are making more than $1.44 million this year alone?

    My point is, just the fact that he is playing for the Pats this year at such a high level is already a great "return on investment" even if he did leave next year and the pats are "not able to get anything in return".
  2. Alex24

    Alex24 Banned

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    Some pat fans here need to understand that the pats cant just say lets let Cassel go because Brady is better which could be a big mistake cause we really dont know how good or bad Brady could be when he returns and if we let Cassel go and Brady gets injured again then we are really screwed.
  3. muslimman

    muslimman Rookie

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    This is not aimed directly at you, but I feel like Im getting lectured by Judge Judy everytime somebody talks about the Matt Cassel situation...

    Anyway I just hope this horse gets beaten to the point where we wont have to talk about it until after the Patriots win the Superbowl this year. :D
  4. smg93

    smg93 Rookie

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    To clarify, what I meant was a lot of people here are saying that we have to franchise then trade him so we can get something in return for Matt, which implies that if we don't get anything for him from a trade of some sort, the Pats would have "lost" something.

    Hoping not to be a judge judy(!) here :D but I guess the point I was trying to make was that the fact that he's stepped up and given us 10 pretty good games as a starting QB in this league (yes, I know that the first game doesn't officially count but whatever) is already a pretty good return on investment considering how much the other QB's now are making versus how much the team has paid him throughout the life of his four year contract.

    Don't get me wrong, I'd love to get a couple draft picks or something like that if we could trade him to some team, but if that happens, I look at that as a bonus and not that we had a right or anything like that to get anything for losing him (again aside from compensatory picks).
    Last edited: Nov 19, 2008
  5. Wildo7

    Wildo7 Totally Full of It

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    My speculation (and that's all any of us have is worthless speculation) is that unless Brady is unable to make a return next year, or the Pats feel he will be unable to perform in the first half of the season, Cassel will not be franchise tagged. I personally think some Pats fans are dreaming if they think we will be able to tag him and trade him for picks because of a number of factors that I don't want to get into again.

    That being said, I have the up most faith that the Pats will do what is best and if we are "stuck" with Brady PUP and O'Connell and Gutz as backups, the coaching staff will be able to turn KO into, at the very least, a serviceable NFL QB.

    As far as ROI is concerned; the work the coaching staff has put into Cassel and the relatively paltry cap hit he has required means in relation to the return he has given us this year, he has definitely paid off. You might say that as far as that goes, this is the worst year Brady could have gone down because it's right before they may have been able to re-sign Cassel for another cheapish contract, but I disagree. If they had re-signed him for a backup QB type extension, and Brady went down in the same way, he probably would have had to have his contract renegotiated and/or traded. So the Pats may have received some picks for him under that scenario, but things never work out the way you want them to.

    I don't want to further beat this dead horse (all evidence to the contrary), but KO's experience learning from Brady in preseason and then watching Cassel transition into the starter's role, along with a year of learning the system and maybe getting some reps at some point, will go miles in preparing him to replace Cassel if need be.

    In short, the Pats are going to be just fine.
    Last edited: Nov 19, 2008
  6. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    Of course he's been an excellent return on investment. But that doesn't mean you let him go for nothing. Brady has been a great return on invesment too but I don't think we should let him go when his contract expires just because we already got more than our monies' worth. I want to see how the rest of the season plays out. When it gets colder and the pressure rises, Cassel may regress. But if he doesn't then I would expect Belichick and Pioli to be talking to other teams before free agency starts so they understand their options.
  7. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Mattyice has done good, but since there's still a capital gains tax to pay, going for a better return isn't a bad way to ensure there's something left in the kitty for the next investment.
  8. signbabybrady

    signbabybrady Rookie

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    #24 Jersey

    Obviously there is some concern whether Brady can return to 100% but you can't let some concerns run your team. It is not economically feasable to carry two QBs with high salary. Cassel has earned it and I dont see how we can afford both. Who you gonna choose?

    Also seeing as we have found 2 QBs at the end of the draft might it be possible we found one in the 3rd rd who could be a decent back up to Brady and potentially a starter down the line too.
  9. Jimke

    Jimke Rookie

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    The Pats are not going to franchise Matt Cassel and tie up $14
    million. If they did so, no team would come along and give them a
    high draft pick to relieve them of this burden. The fact is that Cassel
    will sign elsewhere for a good salary but nowhere near $14 million.
  10. BelizePats

    BelizePats Rookie

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    ROI is important! But its the smart investor who thinks in terms of Maximizing ROI.
    Its an interesting debate!
    I'd love to get a two and a 3 for him but with 14 million potentially committed to him, it would be a scary game of chicken that a traditionally conservative front office likely won't play.
    I'd be happy with a 3rd if he signs the kind of contract that guys like Schefter are speculating on.
    This years draft is extremely important to this franchise so the more ammo we have going in to it, the better.
  11. signbabybrady

    signbabybrady Rookie

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    #24 Jersey

    Correct me if I am wrong but if we Franchise him we would be able to remove the franchise tag so long as he as not signed it yet. While he wont get 14 mil for one season from any team any deal he did get would likely be worth more than 14 mil total so he would have a reason not to sign the franchise deal right away and thus gives us time to find a trade.
  12. tanked_as_usual

    tanked_as_usual Banned

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    I would not be suprised either way.....I could see him getting tagged, but would not be suprised if he does not.......since the pats would see a decent comp pick for him in 2010........

    they easily have the cap space to tag him and to still make some progress in FA (current cap space is 24M) ........ I would not expect much if he is tagged......at best a 2nd rounder.......good places for cassel are seattle (hasslebeck is beat up), st. louis, houston, detroit, chicago.......I think much will depend on teh QB coach for any given team since he is still a relative empty shell, but has the physical tools and mental approach to continue to develop

    I still believe kevin o'connell is a better prospect
    Last edited: Nov 19, 2008
  13. Urgent

    Urgent Rookie

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    #24 Jersey

    In terms of ROI, sunk gain is the same as sunk cost. It is immaterial to ROI.
    You want to consider the future investment and future returns.

    Right now, the baseline is Matt Cassel leaves, some team offers him a Schaubian deal at $8mm (a bit more than half the price of the top five), and the Patriots end up with a third round compensatory draft pick (the following year). We can depreciate that to a fourth round in 2009, since you could normally trade a 2010 third for a 2009 fourth.

    So let's just assume that the market price established by the Schaub deal (a couple years ago, in a lower cap environment) is exactly the "open market" price for Cassel, ignoring salary inflation with the cap, the impact of the impending potentially uncapped year, and so fourth, just as a data point. That deal was $48mm over six years, or an average of $8mm a year.

    The potential investment is $14mm for the franchise fee, with the real risk that a) he immediately signs it and b) the Patriots are unable to swing a deal.

    Why?

    Let's look at it from Matt's point of view. His options are:
    a) take the $14mm one-year deal, and hit free agency a year later (in a potentially uncapped off-season)
    b) agree to a trade and extension
    Let's just assume the long-term deals would be the same, as a constant.
    His income outlook:
    a) $14mm + six-year $48mm deal, or $62mm over seven years, or $8.9mm a year.
    b) Six-year $48mm deal, or $8mm a year.
    Clearly Cassel earns more under scenario a, and gets an immediate $14mm, plus the up-front bonus money from the LT contract in year two. He should see $25-30mm in two years, easily.
    It would be in Cassel's financial interests to play one-year as a back-up to Brady for $14mm. Further, that reduces his risk profile of a career-ending injury. The market has shown in the past that, like Schaub, total value is not reduced because the QB is not starting.
  14. spacecrime

    spacecrime Rookie

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    That is correct, but th4ere is one more thing that no one is talking about. From the moment he is franchised until he is traded or the tag is rescinded, our cap is dropped by over $14 million dollars. We cannot use that money to sign free agents or extend current players. Franchising Cassel will almost certainly take us out of the free agent market until very close to or the day of the draft.

    This is if all goes well. If things do not go well and Cassel's agent senses for a millisecond that Cassel will get less than a $14 mil signing bonus, Cassel will sign the franchise tag to protect himself.
  15. spacecrime

    spacecrime Rookie

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    What is left in the kitty is thh difference what we are saving on a startring QB this year.

    Cassel's salary this year is $520K. That is not exactly an invetment, now is it?

    Pay the guy $6-8 mil this year, what a player of his production is getting, and then talk about getting a return on invetment.

    Cassel has already repaid the investment in him many times over.
  16. Urgent

    Urgent Rookie

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    #24 Jersey

    Now look at it from the Patriots point of view.

    Their potential investment is $14mm, with Cassel likely ending up as an enormously expensive back-up, but potentially a valuable trading chip.

    Let's assume the Patriots earn a second-round pick by trading him.

    Would teams pay a first, and then pay the cost of a $48mm contract? Less likely, given that the team has to pay both Cassel and the Patriots. A third is possible as well, but it's really impossible to project.

    So, the upside is the difference between a second-round and a fourth-round draft pick.

    Given the odds of success between second-round (about 60%) and a fourth-round (about 40%), there is value. A second-rounder offers about a 60% chance of replacing a free agent, for a $500K salary. A fourth-rounder offers about a 40% chance of replacing a free agent, for a $400K salary. Let's say a free agent costs $3mm.
    So, value of a second-rounder is .60*$3mm - $0.5mm, or $1.3mm.
    Value of a fourth-rounder is .40*$3mm-$0.4mm, or $0.8mm.
    The value, then, between a second and fourth-rounder is about $500K.
  17. Urgent

    Urgent Rookie

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    #24 Jersey

    So, using those calculations:

    The upside return of franchising and hoping to trade Cassel for a potential second-round pick, in ROI terms, is $500K in draft value.
    The downside risk is $14mm.

    You would have to be very very certain of the outcome before using that franchise tag, given the significant difference between the low return and the high cost.
  18. ctpatsfan77

    ctpatsfan77 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    There is one other important thing weighing against Cassel signing that franchise tag: yes, he's getting $14M, but he has no idea what the QB status the next year will be. Right now, we know that there are no fewer than three teams* whose quarterback situations could be described as FAIL, and there don't look to be many good options in the draft at QB.

    Come 2010, there might not be a salary cap, but all of those holes might be filled (e.g., KC, where Tyler Thigpen seems to have at least dampened the need for a big contract).

    *Minnesota, Detroit, and San Francisco. Oakland, too, but they've got too much cash tied up in JaMarcus Russell. Arizona and Seattle might also be looking for QBs, depending on what Warner and Hasselbeck do.
  19. Wretch

    Wretch Rookie

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    I have taken part in some of the other threads regarding Cassel and comp picks versus various tags.

    This is what I think, and those thoughts are full of sound and fury signifying nothing, generally.

    The Pats will wait and see how Brady's rehab is going before making any decision. If Brady's rehab is going well then it is thank you for a great year Matt and please think twice before signing within our division because we know you better than you know yourself. Thanks for the nice comp pick too.

    If Brady's rehab is going poorly then the Pats will consider the tag if, in the coaching staff's mind, Cassel is a signifigant upgrade over Kevin O'Connell. If the coaches don't trust KO then Matt get's tagged. In this scenario if Cassel is allowed to become a UFA and KO is going to be the opening day starter I wouldn't surprised to see the Pats pick up OL help, a blocking TE and a RB in FA or the draft to improve the pass protection and as insurance against LoMo not being able to play up to his talent level because of his injuries. (FYI I am not a LoMo is made of glass poster).

    Just my thoughts.
  20. MoLewisrocks

    MoLewisrocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    You'd be amazed what teams would do. Houston paid two second rounders for the opportunity to bestow on Matt Schaub, a guy who had never won a game as a starter or backup, a $48M contract.

    The Browns invested a first round pick in Brady Quinn and then, after just missing out on a playoff berth due to poor QB play signed Derek Anderson to a 3 year $24M extension with $14M guaranteed just to hedge their bets against Brady Quinn being no better.

    The Packers gave up a 1st round pick for the pleasure of grooming Aaron Rogers for three seasons behind a guy they couldn't pay to retire. And based on his first half dozen somewhat inconsistent starts after finally trading that other guy they just extended Rogers on a 6 year $65M deal that pays him $12.9M this year with 2 years still remaining on his rookie deal. Go figure...

    Don't be afraid of Matt Cassel succeeding. Embrace it. So you were wrong, the important thing is this FO was right and may well reap substantial rewards as a result...For the love of God people...LOL

    One way the JETS helped rebuild their team after Herm left was by tagging a disgruntled John Abraham for the second time after promising him a contract they could not afford. Couldn't afford the tag either. Yet a week later two teams were talking to the JETS about trading for Abraham and within a day he had a deal worked out with Atlanta and the JETS used Seattle's willingness to part with a first to get Atlanta, who was offering a second, to up the ante. And Abraham got the long term deal he wanted. So everyone came away happy.

    Abraham didn't help Atlanta a bit that year, nothing could. This year, different scenario and it's nice to have a stud DE on a team with a stud rookie QB... Some GM's plan for the future as well as the present.
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