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The Case for Kelley Washington

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by ayjackson, May 9, 2007.

  1. ayjackson

    ayjackson Rookie

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    A lot has been said about our receiving core for 2008 and beyond, but I wanted to get a little more specific and see what it looks like from a contract perspective.

    On the roster for 2007, we have:

    Randy Moss
    Donte Stallworth
    Reche Caldwell
    Jabar Gaffney
    Kelley Washington
    Wes Welker
    Chad Jackson
    Troy Brown
    Bam Childress
    Kelvin Kight
    Johnny Q. Practicesquadder

    Looking past '07 one at a time:

    Randy Moss - He's on a one year contract and would only be a Patriot past this season if he's a good boy, works hard, has success and decides he wants to play for probably less than he could receive on the open market.

    Donte Stallworth - Donte will play for about $3.6m this year and then has a roster bonus due on Feb 25/08. If the Patriots don't cut him prior to the bonus, he would be slated to earn $16m over the following two seasons (08 and 09). He would have to have a phenomenal season for the Pats to (in essence) pick up the option. Though, like Randy, if he was successful here, and wanted to play for less than he could likely receive on the open market, he could renegotiate the terms of the contract.

    Reche Caldwell/Jabar Gaffney - These two are lumped together because they are in the same boat, essentially. Both have expiring contracts. Reche's will pay him about $1.5m and Jabar's about $600k. The Patriots could decide to extend one prior to next offseason, as either a number two, four or five receiver.

    Wes Welker - Wes received $5.5m to sign and will play for about $600k this season. He has a reasonable contract beyond this season that would pay him $10.6m over four years (2008-2011).

    Chad Jackson - Chad is signed to his rookie deal through 2009 that will see him earn roughly $600k per year.

    Troy Brown - I am going to assume that Troy will be retired by 2008.

    The "others" - practice squad and special teamers (or waived) for 2007, could play a role in 2008

    Kelley Washington - Ah Mr. Washington. Many have suggested that Kelley is prime cut material due to his paltry $300k cap hit to do so. This is very true. I look at Mr. Washington as a Potential Bargain as well. Like Donte, Kelley is due a roster bonus on Feb 25/08. But where Donte would be playing for $16m over two years if retained, Kelley's contract would pay him $12.4m over four years (2008-2011) if retained. This would be an average of $3.1m per year. While this isn't cheap, the contract is structured to give the Patriots incentive to "see what they have" in Mr. Washington. If he shows aptitude and desire to pick up the play book, and stays health through training camp, I think he gets the fourth receiver role going into the season. BB/SP will want to tap his potential as much as possible this season, to determine if he can be a top 2 receiver in 2008. I guess I should add that, if the Pats do like what they see, and he gets the ball about 30 times as the #4 receiver, then the Pats may be in a position to negtiate down his contract a bit.

    One more comment on Caldwell and Gaffney.....IF Moss is a good boy, Stallworth stays healthy in TC, Troy Brown comes back, Kelley Washington shows aptitude and desire in the offseason and Chad Jackson is 100% by TC, then THEY (plus Wes Welker) are our six WRs starting the season. Reche's and Jabar's 2007 future with the Patriots, rests on these IFS, in my humble opinion.

    My early (very naive) guess as to the 2008 Patriots receiving corps:

    Randy Moss
    Kelley Washington
    Wes Welker
    Chad Jackson
    Kelvin Kight

    My sincere apologies if I've brutally misused and abused the salary information that Miguel has collected on his pages.
  2. PatsFanInVa

    PatsFanInVa PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Guesses are guesses. But what you see looking at these contracts seems to match what I see: we're throwing this group at the wall and seeing who sticks. Everybody gets a year to prove themselves. Welker comes at a decent price and evidently the Foxboro guys think he stays - my guess is the versatility to return kicks and punts, as well as be an emergency kicker, combined w/the reasonable offer.

    I wouldn't make an 08 guess, because 07 is essentially the proving grounds. Something tells me the Randy strategy is to evaluate him by production, like he's starting over, and telling him so (his contract says it louder than words.) If he plays like a #2 guy, he gets the #2 money. If he smokes Stallworth, comparatively, your guess is a good one...

    We'll see. In (WaHHHHH) 5 months or so.

    PFnV
  3. patsox23

    patsox23 Rookie

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    interesting, thorough post. Thanks for the effort.
  4. patsfanofNC12

    patsfanofNC12 Rookie

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    I like Jabar over Washington, but the rest is very good.
  5. psychoPat

    psychoPat Role Player PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Seconded !
  6. kurtinelson

    kurtinelson Rookie

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    Excellent post. Though it is extremely exciting to have this much WR talent in 2007, I am a little worried about what kind of continuity we will have going into 2008. It would be nice for Brady to not have to learn to play with a new stable of receivers every year. I fear that Kelley Washington will not get the reps needed to prove he's worth keeping at his current contract. I feel a little sorry for him having been burried on the depth chart behind Ocho cinco, Houshamazila and Inmate No. 682323902 (aka Henry) in Cincy. He comes to New England with a chance to be a real contributor, only to get burried in the depth chart behind Moss, Stallworth and Welker.

    I have no idea what the 2008 WR corp will look like, but I would not be surprised if neither Moss, Stallworth, nor Washington are on the team beyond 2007.
  7. zippo59

    zippo59 Rookie

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    The wide receiver battle is going to be fun to follow during training camp. May the best man win.
  8. PatsMyBoyz!

    PatsMyBoyz! Rookie

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    Same here!
  9. Sean Pa Patriot

    Sean Pa Patriot Rookie

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    WR is the most intriguing battle in camp.. I do think Stallworth sticks around next yr....I will take Gaffney over Caldwell, and maybee we trade Caldwell for a 5th or sixth round pick.
  10. PatsMyBoyz!

    PatsMyBoyz! Rookie

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    That's a good point about how much of a chance Washington will actually get,and if what he does get will be enough to keep him aboard in 08 after the likely departures of Moss and/or Stallworth then probably Brown (hopefully to some other role or capacity). Washington sounds like he could lend some continuity going forward.
    I don't know who I predict yet;a good part could depend on Jackson.
  11. JoeSixPat

    JoeSixPat Rookie

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    It's pretty simple. We've got a lot of WRs signed to what are actually or essentially one year contracts.

    Everyone has a fair chance to win a spot for the longer term - though I think Washington has to really turn some heads to earn his $4 million signing bonus to stay on past this season... and the number of reception attempts he sees might make that a bit difficult.

    The whole point of having these contracts is that the players all have a lot of incentive to do well - and of course winning the SB will ensure that even the players who don't get picked up in 2008 will probably do ok with their next contract. For Washington, coming off an injury, its an excellent opportunity for him.
    Last edited: May 9, 2007
  12. Rob0729

    Rob0729 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Although I think this is a good post. I disagree with some things. First, I think Moss is using the Pats this year for one last big paycheck in 2008. I don't think that paycheck will come from the Patriots. If Randy gets his ring this year, I don't see him taking less to stay and be a team player. Same goes for Stallworth.

    Second, I think the Pats are looking at Washington as they looked at David Terrell and Johnathan Sullivan. All three were players the Pats had some interest in before they were drafted and all failed to live up to expectations. I think the Pats brought him in to see if he has anything left of what made them interested in him before he was drafted. The fact that he couldn't replace Chris Henry with all his legal problems for third on the Bengals' depth chart and the fact he has a narrow spin which could open him up to more neck problems in the future, gives him a slim shot at making the final 53 man roster. He will be given a shot, but he has to play his way onto the roster not play it off in my opinion.

    Third, I fully expect both Caldwell and Gaffney to be here. They, along with Brown assuming he can rehab from his offseason surgery and has anything left, are the only WRs on the roster with a decent amount of in game experience with Brady and the Pats offense. It is a difficult offense to learn and they are not going to make significant chances to accomodate Moss and Stallworth. Both Caldwell and Gaffney will be crucial for the early season success of our offense because Moss, Stallworth, and Welker are bound to struggle at least at time early with the offense. I expect both Caldwell and Gaffney to see significant playing times at least in the month September. One may be cut in November to make room for Jackson who is bound for the PUP.

    There is no need to rush this guy back with all these receivers. It is better to sacrifice his short term production rather than to risk long term problems.
  13. Dragda

    Dragda Yes, it's really me... PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Moss, Stallworth and Welker are locks. The rest will be decided on their versatility. Caldwell doesn't have it. I think he's cut. Whoever is better in the kicking game between Gaffney and Washington makes the team.
  14. Alk

    Alk Rookie

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  15. jczxohn1

    jczxohn1 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Washington's ability as a downfield blocker will be as important as the # of catches he has. It will be interesting to see how many times he is on the field for running and screen plays.
  16. italia44

    italia44 Rookie

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    I'm astounded by some of the analysis on this thread.

    Moss and Stallworth leaving for more money after one year?......Don't be so sure...If Pats win SB or come close,why would you trade another season with
    Tom Brady for another million or two with a mediocre team and QB?

    If you get one ring,wouldn't you want a chance at two or three?........along with a ticket to the HOF?

    Kelly Washington couldn't supplant Chris Henry?
    He was injured and the Bengals,unlike the Patriots,
    have a pecking order with their WR's,based on salary and reputation.

    IMO,Washington will be a red-zone stud for us.
    If he stays healthy,he's also the most motivated of all the FA WR's.

    Brown and Jackson will BOTH be PUP.
    Troy is coming off an injury and the Pup list is the perfect place to slot him until the WR situation shakes out.
    This is obvious to me,,,can;t you see this?

    Caldwell is in trouble here,both because of his performance in the AFCCG and his lack of versatility.

    Gaffney is shorter money,better hands,and more versatile because he can play the slot.

    After training camp and the EX games,TB will be more than familiar with the potential of the "speed" WR's(Moss and Stallworth).
    His familiarity with Caldwell and Gaffney last year
    is irrelevant and overblown.

    This offense will be dominate......without any one
    piece having to be dominating.

    It's going to be fun to watch.
  17. BradyManny

    BradyManny Rookie

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    You throw out some good points, and I'm feeling you on the hope Kelley Washington reaches his potential here and becomes a contributor long term.

    However, this specific Moss point - I personally feel quite confident we'll see Moss in a Patriot uniform past 08. This isn't like Stallworth taking a one year deal to basically try out for the entire league and earn himself a big payday. Randy Moss HAD his big payday, 18 mill for the next two years, and ripped it up to come here and play. That tells us that money (straight cash, homey) isn't a big factor in Moss' decision making at this point in his career.

    If Moss succeeds in a Pats uniform, and I think he will, he'll probably get a Dillon-like extension, similar, reasonable $.

    Again, I truly believe the intention, the best case-scenario, and the reasonably likely scenario is that Randy Moss is a Patriot for more than just this season.
  18. patsfan55

    patsfan55 Rookie

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    yeah it was
    i added it to my myspace page about a month ago
    priceless


    back to the original post, i love washington and def think he could surprise a lot of ppl
    however, NO WAY is welker the number six
    personally i think he will be at least second on the team in receptions (moss the other one), with watson and stallworth behind them
  19. BradyManny

    BradyManny Rookie

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    See my above post.

    I don't see how you can possibly think this...the man tore up $18 million to play here, he's not using us to get a big paycheck...He had his big paycheck, and he ripped it up b/c as he said himself, has made plenty of money in his career.

    If money was his concern, he would've played out under his current contract and then worried about going to a team where he could get a ring.
  20. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I disagree with so much of what is posted. Let me simply state my position.

    2007

    Moss could have played elsewhere for lots more money. He may or may not stay. I suspect that he will want to stay. I suspect that whether he stays will depend more on tem chemistry than anything else. He can play anywhere. He wants to play for a contender and have fun. He given up millions this year to do so. I suspect that he will do the same next year.

    Ditto for Stallworth, although in this case the patriots have the option.

    Welker is a younger version of Troy. He will be a fine slot receiver and a returner. If we need him to start, he will. Otherwise, he will be fine #3.

    Washington is the mystery man, the man with the most upside, and the man who will be most motivated. He might be cut. He might be #4 on the depth chart. I expect that he will make the squad.

    Jackson and Brown seem to be bound for the PUP list, although Brown could be on the 53 as a utility player. I don't have him on the WR depth chart.

    I suppose the conservative approach is to expect Caldwell and Gaffney to both amke the team and push out Washington. I hope that it doesn't happen and that we trade one of these players for a conditional draft choice.

    ===================

    2008

    Two of Moss, Stallworth and Washingon (I'd love to keep all three)
    Welker
    Jackson
    a free agent which could be Gaffney or Caldwell

    ====================

    I think that many here disagree with me either with regard to Stallworth's contract or his talent. I see nothing wrong with his contract as is, possibly with restructuring, but with no change of money. Ditto for Washingtion.

    If (an big if) Jackson comes around, and Moss decides to stay, we will have an incredible set of receivers for a long time to come.

    Moss, Stallworth, Welker, Jackson, Washington !!!!!!!!!!
  21. Patriot_in_NY

    Patriot_in_NY Rookie

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    Interesting indeed. However. I'd put Gaffney or Caldwell in there instead of Kight. One of them will get the nod beyond this year. My guess is Gaffney right now.
  22. DarrylS

    DarrylS PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Have felt since the acquisition of Washington that he could be the sleeper, great pedigree, been around great NFL receivers with not much chance to play and great size. Here he is coming into a system that will let him capitalize on his strengths. A lot remains to be seen, but just one of those gut feelings.
  23. Krugman

    Krugman Rookie

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    It should be interesting in camp this summer.How many recievers do you thinkthey will go with?I realize its probably not a hard and fast number,but is more than 6-7 realistic?
  24. Rob0729

    Rob0729 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    The biggest BS story of the offseason is Moss tore up an $18 million contract to come here. Yes, he tore up his contract, but he is going to make about as much here as he would have anywhere else. Do you really think the Raiders would have paid him $9 plus million this year? Very unlikely. Do you think anyone else would have picked him off waivers or traded him for his current contract. Also unlikely.

    Moss is going to make $4.5-$5 million here this year which is about as much as he would have made anywhere else. What he did give up is a long term deal because he is probably hedging his bet that he can rehab his image.

    Moss gave up a contract that he was never going to get. The Raiders weren't going to pay it and no one else was either.

    Stallworth has been well publicized that he was going to come to the Pats to use playing with Brady and use this year to convince the Pats to pick up that monster option that probably will never happen or cash in free agency next year. Moss is probably following suit.
  25. Rob0729

    Rob0729 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Caldwell has better hands than Gaffney. Caldwell dropped three balls all year and that includes the two drops in the AFCCG. People's perceptions of Caldwell are out of whack because of that game. He went from universally believed an offseason steal to useless overnight.
  26. PatsFan37

    PatsFan37 Rookie

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    That's not how players think. IF the Pats win, Moss in particular will feel that the Pats owe him the superbowl and will want to be paid accordingly. Look at what happened after Dillon's spectacular 2004 season. He was paid well and never performed to that level again. BB will be wary of making that mistake with another temperamental player on the wrong side of 30. He will want to find a different superior talent who feels dissed and wants to win a SB. And will want to groom the talented hardworking players that are a better fit. He will let Moss leave for his payday elsewhere. And Moss will do so. Dillon would have if the Pats had not paid him as well as they did.

    For those who think Moss tore up his paycheck, he did not. The Raiders would have cut him if they didn't trade him.

    Everyone is ruling out Caldwell a bit too quickly. This guy is a tough, hardworking, team player who came through last year when most everyone else did not. I hope he is not the 2008 #1 WR, but if someone else emerges as the #1, he is a very serviceable #2, especially with Welker in the slot.
  27. Rob0729

    Rob0729 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Where? The Yankees? If he could have gotten a lot more money elsewhere, why did no one else offer more than a fifth round pick for Moss in trade. Moss has already said that the stories that he would only take less to play for the Pats are false. He would have taken less to play for Green Bay. If Green Bay wasn't willing to part with even a fourth, it is doubtful they would have given up more the Pats were in compensation. No one else ever offered a trade for Moss.

    It was reported before he signed with the Pats that if Stallworth didn't get a deal from anyone that was close to what he was looking for, he would sign with the Pats for one year (which is what he basically did) and used playing with Brady as a springboard to cash in in 2008.

    Stallworth is definitely using this year to cash in 2008. He hasn't hid that fact. If the Pats do not pick up the option, he will sell his wares to the highest bidder. It was known coming in. He may hope the Pats pick up the option, but he specifically had this option in the contract so the Pats couldn't franchise him next year and he could be a free agent in 2008.

    People are buying too much into agents spin rather than the real facts of the situations.
  28. Rob0729

    Rob0729 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I agree. People are judging this guy based on two drops in the AFCCG. Caldwell was Brady's goto guy for most of the season. I think even his strongest supporters will agree he isn't a true number one, but he does have a chemistry with Brady and he knows the offense. Brady probably has more comfort with him than any other WR on the roster right now.

    I can't see the Pats going into the season with no WRs who have had experience playing in our offense. No one other than Troy Brown if he comes back has as much experience as Caldwell. We need him for continuity for our offense especially early in the season. It takes a while to learn our offense and guys like Caldwell and Gaffney will be called on to step up while Moss, Stallworth, and Welker learn all the intricacies of the offense. Moss has always played in basic vertical offenses and may struggle to pick up the different routes and presnap reads.
  29. sebman2112

    sebman2112 Rookie

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    According to Miguel Stallworth's '08 cap hit is scheduled to be $6,373,386, and that's pretty much what they offered Branch, so I don't think it's a slam dunk Stallworth isn't going to be here after '07, especially since his cap hit goes down to $4,873,386 in '09. Also, some of his bonusus are playing time and performance based, so he has to stay healthy and perform to actually make the full amount of his contract.
  30. sebman2112

    sebman2112 Rookie

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    This is much closer to the way I'm thinking.

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