The Case for Kelley Washington

[ayjackson]

A lot has been said about our receiving core for 2008 and beyond, but I wanted to get a little more specific and see what it looks like from a contract perspective.

On the roster for 2007, we have:

Randy Moss
Donte Stallworth
Reche Caldwell
Jabar Gaffney
Kelley Washington
Wes Welker
Chad Jackson
Troy Brown
Bam Childress
Kelvin Kight
Johnny Q. Practicesquadder

Looking past '07 one at a time:

Randy Moss - He's on a one year contract and would only be a Patriot past this season if he's a good boy, works hard, has success and decides he wants to play for probably less than he could receive on the open market.

Donte Stallworth - Donte will play for about $3.6m this year and then has a roster bonus due on Feb 25/08. If the Patriots don't cut him prior to the bonus, he would be slated to earn $16m over the following two seasons (08 and 09). He would have to have a phenomenal season for the Pats to (in essence) pick up the option. Though, like Randy, if he was successful here, and wanted to play for less than he could likely receive on the open market, he could renegotiate the terms of the contract.

Reche Caldwell/Jabar Gaffney - These two are lumped together because they are in the same boat, essentially. Both have expiring contracts. Reche's will pay him about $1.5m and Jabar's about $600k. The Patriots could decide to extend one prior to next offseason, as either a number two, four or five receiver.

Wes Welker - Wes received $5.5m to sign and will play for about $600k this season. He has a reasonable contract beyond this season that would pay him $10.6m over four years (2008-2011).

Chad Jackson - Chad is signed to his rookie deal through 2009 that will see him earn roughly $600k per year.

Troy Brown - I am going to assume that Troy will be retired by 2008.

The "others" - practice squad and special teamers (or waived) for 2007, could play a role in 2008

Kelley Washington - Ah Mr. Washington. Many have suggested that Kelley is prime cut material due to his paltry $300k cap hit to do so. This is very true. I look at Mr. Washington as a Potential Bargain as well. Like Donte, Kelley is due a roster bonus on Feb 25/08. But where Donte would be playing for $16m over two years if retained, Kelley's contract would pay him $12.4m over four years (2008-2011) if retained. This would be an average of $3.1m per year. While this isn't cheap, the contract is structured to give the Patriots incentive to "see what they have" in Mr. Washington. If he shows aptitude and desire to pick up the play book, and stays health through training camp, I think he gets the fourth receiver role going into the season. BB/SP will want to tap his potential as much as possible this season, to determine if he can be a top 2 receiver in 2008. I guess I should add that, if the Pats do like what they see, and he gets the ball about 30 times as the #4 receiver, then the Pats may be in a position to negtiate down his contract a bit.

One more comment on Caldwell and Gaffney.....IF Moss is a good boy, Stallworth stays healthy in TC, Troy Brown comes back, Kelley Washington shows aptitude and desire in the offseason and Chad Jackson is 100% by TC, then THEY (plus Wes Welker) are our six WRs starting the season. Reche's and Jabar's 2007 future with the Patriots, rests on these IFS, in my humble opinion.

My early (very naive) guess as to the 2008 Patriots receiving corps:

Randy Moss
Kelley Washington
Wes Welker
Chad Jackson
Kelvin Kight

My sincere apologies if I've brutally misused and abused the salary information that Miguel has collected on his pages.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

Guesses are guesses. But what you see looking at these contracts seems to match what I see: we're throwing this group at the wall and seeing who sticks. Everybody gets a year to prove themselves. Welker comes at a decent price and evidently the Foxboro guys think he stays - my guess is the versatility to return kicks and punts, as well as be an emergency kicker, combined w/the reasonable offer.

I wouldn't make an 08 guess, because 07 is essentially the proving grounds. Something tells me the Randy strategy is to evaluate him by production, like he's starting over, and telling him so (his contract says it louder than words.) If he plays like a #2 guy, he gets the #2 money. If he smokes Stallworth, comparatively, your guess is a good one...

We'll see. In (WaHHHHH) 5 months or so.

PFnV

 

[patsox23]

interesting, thorough post. Thanks for the effort.

 

[patsfanofNC12]

I like Jabar over Washington, but the rest is very good.

 

[psychoPat]

interesting, thorough post. Thanks for the effort.

Seconded !

 

[Water Boy]

Excellent post. Though it is extremely exciting to have this much WR talent in 2007, I am a little worried about what kind of continuity we will have going into 2008. It would be nice for Brady to not have to learn to play with a new stable of receivers every year. I fear that Kelley Washington will not get the reps needed to prove he's worth keeping at his current contract. I feel a little sorry for him having been burried on the depth chart behind Ocho cinco, Houshamazila and Inmate No. 682323902 (aka Henry) in Cincy. He comes to New England with a chance to be a real contributor, only to get burried in the depth chart behind Moss, Stallworth and Welker.

I have no idea what the 2008 WR corp will look like, but I would not be surprised if neither Moss, Stallworth, nor Washington are on the team beyond 2007.

 

[zippo59]

The wide receiver battle is going to be fun to follow during training camp. May the best man win.

 

[PatsMyBoyz!]

interesting, thorough post. Thanks for the effort.

Same here!

 

[Sean Pa Patriot]

WR is the most intriguing battle in camp.. I do think Stallworth sticks around next yr....I will take Gaffney over Caldwell, and maybee we trade Caldwell for a 5th or sixth round pick.

 

[PatsMyBoyz!]

Excellent post. Though it is extremely exciting to have this much WR talent in 2007, I am a little worried about what kind of continuity we will have going into 2008. It would be nice for Brady to not have to learn to play with a new stable of receivers every year. I fear that Kelley Washington will not get the reps needed to prove he's worth keeping at his current contract. I feel a little sorry for him having been burried on the depth chart behind Ocho cinco, Houshamazila and Inmate No. 682323902 (aka Henry) in Cincy. He comes to New England with a chance to be a real contributor, only to get burried in the depth chart behind Moss, Stallworth and Welker.

I have no idea what the 2008 WR corp will look like, but I would not be surprised if neither Moss, Stallworth, nor Washington are on the team beyond 2007.

That's a good point about how much of a chance Washington will actually get,and if what he does get will be enough to keep him aboard in 08 after the likely departures of Moss and/or Stallworth then probably Brown (hopefully to some other role or capacity). Washington sounds like he could lend some continuity going forward.
I don't know who I predict yet;a good part could depend on Jackson.

 

[JoeSixPat]

It's pretty simple. We've got a lot of WRs signed to what are actually or essentially one year contracts.

Everyone has a fair chance to win a spot for the longer term - though I think Washington has to really turn some heads to earn his $4 million signing bonus to stay on past this season... and the number of reception attempts he sees might make that a bit difficult.

The whole point of having these contracts is that the players all have a lot of incentive to do well - and of course winning the SB will ensure that even the players who don't get picked up in 2008 will probably do ok with their next contract. For Washington, coming off an injury, its an excellent opportunity for him.

 

[Rob0729]

A lot has been said about our receiving core for 2008 and beyond, but I wanted to get a little more specific and see what it looks like from a contract perspective.

On the roster for 2007, we have:

Randy Moss
Donte Stallworth
Reche Caldwell
Jabar Gaffney
Kelley Washington
Wes Welker
Chad Jackson
Troy Brown
Bam Childress
Kelvin Kight
Johnny Q. Practicesquadder

Looking past '07 one at a time:

Randy Moss - He's on a one year contract and would only be a Patriot past this season if he's a good boy, works hard, has success and decides he wants to play for probably less than he could receive on the open market.

Donte Stallworth - Donte will play for about $3.6m this year and then has a roster bonus due on Feb 25/08. If the Patriots don't cut him prior to the bonus, he would be slated to earn $16m over the following two seasons (08 and 09). He would have to have a phenomenal season for the Pats to (in essence) pick up the option. Though, like Randy, if he was successful here, and wanted to play for less than he could likely receive on the open market, he could renegotiate the terms of the contract.

Reche Caldwell/Jabar Gaffney - These two are lumped together because they are in the same boat, essentially. Both have expiring contracts. Reche's will pay him about $1.5m and Jabar's about $600k. The Patriots could decide to extend one prior to next offseason, as either a number two, four or five receiver.

Wes Welker - Wes received $5.5m to sign and will play for about $600k this season. He has a reasonable contract beyond this season that would pay him $10.6m over four years (2008-2011).

Chad Jackson - Chad is signed to his rookie deal through 2009 that will see him earn roughly $600k per year.

Troy Brown - I am going to assume that Troy will be retired by 2008.

The "others" - practice squad and special teamers (or waived) for 2007, could play a role in 2008

Kelley Washington - Ah Mr. Washington. Many have suggested that Kelley is prime cut material due to his paltry $300k cap hit to do so. This is very true. I look at Mr. Washington as a Potential Bargain as well. Like Donte, Kelley is due a roster bonus on Feb 25/08. But where Donte would be playing for $16m over two years if retained, Kelley's contract would pay him $12.4m over four years (2008-2011) if retained. This would be an average of $3.1m per year. While this isn't cheap, the contract is structured to give the Patriots incentive to "see what they have" in Mr. Washington. If he shows aptitude and desire to pick up the play book, and stays health through training camp, I think he gets the fourth receiver role going into the season. BB/SP will want to tap his potential as much as possible this season, to determine if he can be a top 2 receiver in 2008. I guess I should add that, if the Pats do like what they see, and he gets the ball about 30 times as the #4 receiver, then the Pats may be in a position to negtiate down his contract a bit.

One more comment on Caldwell and Gaffney.....IF Moss is a good boy, Stallworth stays healthy in TC, Troy Brown comes back, Kelley Washington shows aptitude and desire in the offseason and Chad Jackson is 100% by TC, then THEY (plus Wes Welker) are our six WRs starting the season. Reche's and Jabar's 2007 future with the Patriots, rests on these IFS, in my humble opinion.

My early (very naive) guess as to the 2008 Patriots receiving corps:

Randy Moss
Kelley Washington
Wes Welker
Chad Jackson
Kelvin Kight

My sincere apologies if I've brutally misused and abused the salary information that Miguel has collected on his pages.

Although I think this is a good post. I disagree with some things. First, I think Moss is using the Pats this year for one last big paycheck in 2008. I don't think that paycheck will come from the Patriots. If Randy gets his ring this year, I don't see him taking less to stay and be a team player. Same goes for Stallworth.

Second, I think the Pats are looking at Washington as they looked at David Terrell and Johnathan Sullivan. All three were players the Pats had some interest in before they were drafted and all failed to live up to expectations. I think the Pats brought him in to see if he has anything left of what made them interested in him before he was drafted. The fact that he couldn't replace Chris Henry with all his legal problems for third on the Bengals' depth chart and the fact he has a narrow spin which could open him up to more neck problems in the future, gives him a slim shot at making the final 53 man roster. He will be given a shot, but he has to play his way onto the roster not play it off in my opinion.

Third, I fully expect both Caldwell and Gaffney to be here. They, along with Brown assuming he can rehab from his offseason surgery and has anything left, are the only WRs on the roster with a decent amount of in game experience with Brady and the Pats offense. It is a difficult offense to learn and they are not going to make significant chances to accomodate Moss and Stallworth. Both Caldwell and Gaffney will be crucial for the early season success of our offense because Moss, Stallworth, and Welker are bound to struggle at least at time early with the offense. I expect both Caldwell and Gaffney to see significant playing times at least in the month September. One may be cut in November to make room for Jackson who is bound for the PUP.

There is no need to rush this guy back with all these receivers. It is better to sacrifice his short term production rather than to risk long term problems.

 

[Dragda]

Moss, Stallworth and Welker are locks. The rest will be decided on their versatility. Caldwell doesn't have it. I think he's cut. Whoever is better in the kicking game between Gaffney and Washington makes the team.

 

[Alk]

Kelley Washington should be kept for his dancing ability alone. If he breaks out in this dance in a Patriots uniform is would be the greatest thing ever. :rocker:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xMuvjLcuvTI

 

[jczxohn1]

Washington's ability as a downfield blocker will be as important as the # of catches he has. It will be interesting to see how many times he is on the field for running and screen plays.

 

[italia44]

I'm astounded by some of the analysis on this thread.

Moss and Stallworth leaving for more money after one year?......Don't be so sure...If Pats win SB or come close,why would you trade another season with
Tom Brady for another million or two with a mediocre team and QB?

If you get one ring,wouldn't you want a chance at two or three?........along with a ticket to the HOF?

Kelly Washington couldn't supplant Chris Henry?
He was injured and the Bengals,unlike the Patriots,
have a pecking order with their WR's,based on salary and reputation.

IMO,Washington will be a red-zone stud for us.
If he stays healthy,he's also the most motivated of all the FA WR's.

Brown and Jackson will BOTH be PUP.
Troy is coming off an injury and the Pup list is the perfect place to slot him until the WR situation shakes out.
This is obvious to me,,,can;t you see this?

Caldwell is in trouble here,both because of his performance in the AFCCG and his lack of versatility.

Gaffney is shorter money,better hands,and more versatile because he can play the slot.

After training camp and the EX games,TB will be more than familiar with the potential of the "speed" WR's(Moss and Stallworth).
His familiarity with Caldwell and Gaffney last year
is irrelevant and overblown.

This offense will be dominate......without any one
piece having to be dominating.

It's going to be fun to watch.

 

[BradyManny]

Randy Moss - He's on a one year contract and would only be a Patriot past this season if he's a good boy, works hard, has success and decides he wants to play for probably less than he could receive on the open market.

You throw out some good points, and I'm feeling you on the hope Kelley Washington reaches his potential here and becomes a contributor long term.

However, this specific Moss point - I personally feel quite confident we'll see Moss in a Patriot uniform past 08. This isn't like Stallworth taking a one year deal to basically try out for the entire league and earn himself a big payday. Randy Moss HAD his big payday, 18 mill for the next two years, and ripped it up to come here and play. That tells us that money (straight cash, homey) isn't a big factor in Moss' decision making at this point in his career.

If Moss succeeds in a Pats uniform, and I think he will, he'll probably get a Dillon-like extension, similar, reasonable $.

Again, I truly believe the intention, the best case-scenario, and the reasonably likely scenario is that Randy Moss is a Patriot for more than just this season.

 

[patsfan55]

Kelley Washington should be kept for his dancing ability alone. If he breaks out in this dance in a Patriots uniform is would be the greatest thing ever. :rocker:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xMuvjLcuvTI

yeah it was
i added it to my myspace page about a month ago
priceless


back to the original post, i love washington and def think he could surprise a lot of ppl
however, NO WAY is welker the number six
personally i think he will be at least second on the team in receptions (moss the other one), with watson and stallworth behind them

 

[BradyManny]

Although I think this is a good post. I disagree with some things. First, I think Moss is using the Pats this year for one last big paycheck in 2008. I don't think that paycheck will come from the Patriots. If Randy gets his ring this year, I don't see him taking less to stay and be a team player.

See my above post.

I don't see how you can possibly think this...the man tore up $18 million to play here, he's not using us to get a big paycheck...He had his big paycheck, and he ripped it up b/c as he said himself, has made plenty of money in his career.

If money was his concern, he would've played out under his current contract and then worried about going to a team where he could get a ring.

 

[mgteich]

I disagree with so much of what is posted. Let me simply state my position.

2007

Moss could have played elsewhere for lots more money. He may or may not stay. I suspect that he will want to stay. I suspect that whether he stays will depend more on tem chemistry than anything else. He can play anywhere. He wants to play for a contender and have fun. He given up millions this year to do so. I suspect that he will do the same next year.

Ditto for Stallworth, although in this case the patriots have the option.

Welker is a younger version of Troy. He will be a fine slot receiver and a returner. If we need him to start, he will. Otherwise, he will be fine #3.

Washington is the mystery man, the man with the most upside, and the man who will be most motivated. He might be cut. He might be #4 on the depth chart. I expect that he will make the squad.

Jackson and Brown seem to be bound for the PUP list, although Brown could be on the 53 as a utility player. I don't have him on the WR depth chart.

I suppose the conservative approach is to expect Caldwell and Gaffney to both amke the team and push out Washington. I hope that it doesn't happen and that we trade one of these players for a conditional draft choice.

===================

2008

Two of Moss, Stallworth and Washingon (I'd love to keep all three)
Welker
Jackson
a free agent which could be Gaffney or Caldwell

====================

I think that many here disagree with me either with regard to Stallworth's contract or his talent. I see nothing wrong with his contract as is, possibly with restructuring, but with no change of money. Ditto for Washingtion.

If (an big if) Jackson comes around, and Moss decides to stay, we will have an incredible set of receivers for a long time to come.

Moss, Stallworth, Welker, Jackson, Washington !!!!!!!!!!